U.S. gets unusually boring January weather; Thursday storm to ease Midwest drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:59 PM GMT on February 16, 2013

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After an unusually intense period of extreme weather during 2011 and 2012, the U.S. had its quietest month in nearly two years during January 2013, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI during January 2013 was 14%, which was the lowest since the 12% value during February 2011. On average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI. In 2012, just two months (October and February) had below-average CEI, so the weather of January 2013 was a welcome relief from our recent "new normal" of increased extreme weather. Of course, the month wasn't completely without notable weather--the tornado outbreak of January 29 - 30 generated 57 tornadoes, the second largest January tornado outbreak on record. January 2013 ranked as the 39th warmest January since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January; no states had a top-ten warmest January. The January warmth was enough to make the 12-month period ending in January 2013 the warmest such period for the contiguous U.S., with every state being warmer than average. Sixteen states, across the central U.S. and Northeast, were record warm, and 27 additional states were top ten warm.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for January 2013. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January, and no states had a top-ten warmest January. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Drought conditions improve slightly; wetter weather on the way to Midwest drought region
January 2013 had slightly above-average precipitation over the contiguous U.S., but there were notable wet and dry extremes. Louisiana had its wettest January on record, and Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, and Mississippi all had top-ten wettest January weather. Florida, California, and Connecticut all had top-ten driest January weather. Heavy rains in Alabama and Georgia helped give that region no areas of exceptional drought for the first time since January 10, 2012. However, the core of the drought area over the Midwest U.S. shrank only slightly, with the area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought going from 61% on January 1 to 56% on February 12. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued February 7, calls for new areas of drought to develop over Florida, Texas, and California. However, some improvement in drought conditions is expected over about 40% of the drought region by April 30. The latest forecasts from the GFS and European (ECMWF) model show a modest shift in the jet stream pattern during the remainder of February, which may allow more moisture-bearing low pressure systems to pass through the main portion of the Midwest drought region. One storm for sure will arrive on Thursday, and many areas of the drought region should enjoy their their wettest day in months.


Figure 2. Drought conditions as of February 12, 2013, showed that 56% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Saturday, February 23 at 7 pm EST. Almost the entire nation is expected to get precipitation, including the core of the drought region. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forward on Climate rally on February 17th in Washington, D.C. 
On Sunday, February 17, at noon EST, what is expected to be the largest climate rally in history will take place in Washington D.C. The rally is a project of the Sierra Club, 350.org, and the Hip Hop Caucus. The organizers mustered 15,000 protesters last year in D.C. to protest the potential approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline (meant to bring oil from Canada's tar sands into the U.S.) Protesting the potential approval of the pipeline will be a major focus of Sunday's rally, as well. More broadly, the rally aims to put pressure on President Obama to make good on the promises he made during Tuesday's State of the Union Address:

"But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods – all are now more frequent and more intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late….But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will."

It's about time that the President began talking about the reality of our changing climate, and the need to pursue aggressive actions to combat human-caused climate change. January 2013 was a welcome relief from the intense stretch of extreme weather our nation has suffered over the past two years. But the extreme weather of 2011 - 2012 is going to be more typical of our "new normal" of weather during the coming decades. Earth's climate is warming, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause. Extreme weather events are increasing in response to the warming climate. People can take cost-effective actions to limit the damage, and our lawmakers are going to come under increasing pressure from grass-roots efforts like the Forward on Climate rally to act to slow down climate change.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting yonzabam:


Why not 1951-80? That's the reference period NASA uses for its global temperature anomaly data. Recent global warming only got underway in the late 70s, so the current situation, whether it be global temperature, or Arctic ocean ice area, should be viewed from that perspective.

Using recent reference periods muddies the issue, as it understates the magnitude of the current situation.


How is a larger sample size in science ever a bad thing?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It never really looked significant to begin with.


it had potential
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Can someone explain why we are still using an average from 13 years ago? Why not 1979-2010?


The updated average would be too heavily weighted by the most recent 10 years, which have been declining twice as fast as the previous 20. This would put the 34 average farther down on the graph. Therefore it would give the false impression that the rate of change is less than it actually is. So just keep that in mind. The average is based on the baseline of the first 21 satellite years, unless it says otherwise.

A more correct way of presenting this data is to show decadal averages, since it solves that problem without any misrepresentations or misinterpretations.

Like This:

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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting Astrometeor:
In reference of post 261 from Neapolitan:

Do not touch the meteorites with your bare hands, as they contain moisture, oils, and bacteria.

^Those meteorites only contain bacteria when they hit the ground, otherwise one is supposing there is life in space, which we have yet to positively confirm, therefore the bacteria do not contain any threat to human health.

Besides, for personal keep there is nothing wrong with touching a meteorite if one so chooses, however for scientific purposes they should be treated very carefully as Nea outlined beautifully.


Nea was referring to chemicals and bacteria on hands, not on meteorites.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Can someone explain why we are still using an average from 13 years ago? Why not 1979-2010?


Why not 1951-80? That's the reference period NASA uses for its global temperature anomaly data. Recent global warming only got underway in the late 70s, so the current situation, whether it be global temperature, or Arctic ocean ice area, should be viewed from that perspective.

Using recent reference periods muddies the issue, as it understates the magnitude of the current situation.
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

#Plato down to 956mb...from 1001mb at 00z last night! Extremely rapid deepening. Good thing this one tracked east of Nemo. h/t @StuOstro
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So I went downtown to "sneak a peek".It sure is windy out there with highs only in the low to mid 30's and winds gusting to 40.Maybe the subject their talking about has warmed them up?.Get it?.lol.And before people take my comment serious and out of proportion laugh and live ;-).
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Can someone explain why we are still using an average from 13 years ago? Why not 1979-2010?
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Latest JTWC update for 94S stays at medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
38.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 39.9E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AS EVIDENCED
ON A 171535Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT
WITH VARYING TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
Preparing for Climate Change-Induced Weather Disasters

Feb. 16, 2013 — The news sounds grim: mounting scientific evidence indicates climate change will lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather that affects larger areas and lasts longer.

However, we can reduce the risk of weather-related disasters with a variety of measures, according to Stanford Woods Institute Senior Fellow Chris Field.

Field will discuss how to prepare for and adapt to a new climate at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) meeting in Boston. Field's talk, "Weather Extremes: Coping With the Changing Risks," will be part of a symposium called "Media: Communicating Science, Uncertainty and Impact" on Feb. 16.

While climate change's role in tornadoes and hurricanes remains unknown, Field says, the pattern is increasingly clear when it comes to heat waves, heavy rains and droughts. Field explains that the risk of climate-related disaster is tied to the overlap of weather, exposure and vulnerability of exposed people, ecosystems and investments.

While this means that moderate extremes can lead to major disasters, especially in communities subjected to other stresses or in cases when extremes are repeated, it also means that prepared, resilient communities can manage even severe extremes.


Source and more on Science Daily

With that I have to leave. Below something to laugh at and to prepare the kittens in FL in case there will be some snow with the present arctic outbreak, lol. Good night from Germany.


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NWS New York NY‏@NWSNewYorkNY

The nor'easter ~500 mi ENE of NYC has a pressure ~956mb. The pressure at NYC is 1006mb; A 50 mb diff. and the reason why it is windy today!
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Some relief from the very dry conditions that Puerto Rico has been thru in past weeks but not a whole lot.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN FEB 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST US AND OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD WILL LIFT NE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
RIDGE COLLAPSING MID WEEK. TROF LIFTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
BUILDING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LIFTING/WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS POLAR TROUGH PRESSES AGAINST UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
DEEPER AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW. GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
UNDER SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THERE STILL COULD BE A RISK OF
SOME AFTERNOON LIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MON
NIGHT AND TUE WILL INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY. WINDS DIMINISH WED WITH BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM
THE ESE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN ON THU WITH INCREASING
STABILITY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT VERY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 17/12Z INDICATED A SOUTHEAST
WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 30 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN MON NIGHT AND TUE AND NORTH
SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY ON MON
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTING/WEAKENING AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
BREAK OUT. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A MORE SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT. MODELS SHOW SIG LESS CLOUD
COVER/DRYER CONDITIONS TUE WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT WITH SIG
STRONGER WINDS. ON WED WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE ESE WITH SOUTH
COAST/SRN SLOPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE THU AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BUT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AND FAVORABLE ESE WINDS WILL ENHANCE
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN PRETTY
HIGH MOST OF THIS WEEK EXCEPT FOR MON WHEN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
In reference of post 261 from Neapolitan:

Do not touch the meteorites with your bare hands, as they contain moisture, oils, and bacteria.

^Those meteorites only contain bacteria when they hit the ground, otherwise one is supposing there is life in space, which we have yet to positively confirm, therefore the bacteria do not contain any threat to human health.

Besides, for personal keep there is nothing wrong with touching a meteorite if one so chooses, however for scientific purposes they should be treated very carefully as Nea outlined beautifully.
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Maybe Levi when he can, elaborates in a more detailed way than what I am doing here about how the Gulf of Guinea is important for the North Atlantic Hurricane seasons depending on how things are in the West Sahel region in terms of being dry or wet. I gather that many people dont know a lot about the Gulf of Guinea and how it affects the tropical cyclone activity in the Tropical Atlantic. The thing is that when it turns cool,then the ITCZ lifts more northward than normal and the Sahel region moists up causing the tropical waves to be stronger as they emerge the African coast, Also, the cooling of the Gulf causes less sal events that causes the CV season to be active, again, because of the moist Sahel. In 2010, the western Sahel was very wet and that likely contributed to increased soil moisture and less dust in 2011. On the contrary,when the Gulf of Guinea warms,the effect is to cause the ITCZ to stay on average or even below normal latitudes during the summer months.Also,the West Sahel area turns drier, and also contibutes to much more sal events.

Here is a Dr Chris Landsea study about this.

Link

West Sahel rainfall index.

Link



Right now the Gulf of Guinea is warm.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
Quoting Astrometeor:


I have had a broken wrist, had a cast for three weeks, total time broken was four weeks. Couldn't write at all and was very hard to eat since it was my right hand.

Hope you get better!


Thanks Astro!

Thank goodness it's only sprained. I'm glad I had my wrist gaurds on. It's my right hand too, and I have a Writing Test coming up in a week or two...I'm glad I can still type though. It should be better in a few days.
:-)

WunderGirl12
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Max,

It's ONLY means "it is". Otherwise always leave out the '.

Makes the presentation look more professional.

Afternoon all....


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes, I noticed that error.. I thought it was so minimal it would hide/blend within.. sorry.
I'll fix it next time and double-check it before upload


wxchaser97's spelling talents strike again I see. Hve fun with that Max.
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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Current Florida dewpoints: 6°F Daytona Beach, 8°F in the swamp (Gainesville), 17°F Ft Laud. Arctic airmass to Keys Link
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Quoting WunderGirl12:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Man, doing stupid stunts on my inline skates probably isn't a good idea...sprained wrist is the outcome...ouch. I'll survive though. :-D

WunderGirl12

P.S. Thank goodness I had my wrist guards on, otherwise I would have had a BROKEN wrist...


I have had a broken wrist, had a cast for three weeks, total time broken was four weeks. Couldn't write at all and was very hard to eat since it was my right hand.

Hope you get better!
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I found this on my local NWS page explaining why their forecast says Washington's Birthday instead of Presidents' Day. A good read, IMO.

Q. Why did the National Weather Service (NWS) change its weather forecast references from Presidents Day to Washington’s Birthday in 2011?

A. Weather forecast references were changed because the holiday is officially designated as “Washington’s Birthday” in Section 6103 (a) of Title 5 of the United States Code, which is the law that specifies holidays for Federal employees. Although other institutions such as state and local governments and private businesses may use other names, it is NWS policy to refer to holidays by the names designated in the law.

Q. Wasn’t the holiday changed to Presidents Day when it was established by Congress to be observed on the third Monday in February?

A. No. The effort to rename the holiday Presidents Day, intended to honor the birthdays of both Washington and Lincoln, failed in Congressional committee. The bill, which was then signed into law on June 28, 1968, specified that the Federal holiday would retain the name Washington’s Birthday. The Uniform Monday Holiday Act of January 1, 1971, established its observance on the third Monday in February.

Q. What changes did the NWS implement to make this change?

A. The NWS changed the software on all its Internet web pages and at all local Weather Forecast Offices so that forecasts which include Washington’s Birthday will show the officially designated name for the holiday this year and into the future.

Q. Is there a link which lists Federal Holidays?

A. Yes. The link is:

List of Federal Holidays
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Thanks Dr. Masters!

Man, doing stupid stunts on my inline skates probably isn't a good idea...sprained wrist is the outcome...ouch. I'll survive though. :-D

WunderGirl12

P.S. Thank goodness I had my wrist guards on, otherwise I would have had a BROKEN wrist...
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Forward On Climate Rally & March - Washington DC

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303. txjac
Quoting Xandra:
Live C-SPAN - Forward on Climate rally


Looking for the poster from yesterday in the bright pink jacket ...
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Quoting SteveDa1:


He would probably get a passing grade.



If the professor has a good enough sense of humor :)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather
Official Boston snow total: 5.1 inches #mawx

That's one of the higher totals reported so far in the state. 5.5" is the highest I can find so far, out on Cape Cod. It's still snowing a little there so 6" will likely be the highest amount. This was a real close call, as has been mentioned this could have been another major blizzard if it was just a little closer, but the storm actually under performed by a pretty large amount, really no big deal up here.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It never really looked significant to begin with.


We are talking about the threat for tomorrow or Thursday?
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1805
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New ECMWF takes the trough from New Mexico to Iowa.

So much for significant SE severe wx. :)

And it was horribly cold this morning at a 5k I ran.

Wind made it feel near 17F for a bit.

It never really looked significant to begin with.
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Fair

59°F

15°C

Humidity31%
Wind Speedcalm
Barometer29.98 in (1014.1 mb)
Dewpoint28°F (-2°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 17 Feb 9:53 am PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.

Ah, the Ebb and Flow. Yesterday 80° today not even close. I have 59.9° here. I see Florida is on a nice roll over the next week or so and we are going down again. Nice while it lasted.



Today is that first day of the cold spell here.....
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Live C-SPAN - Forward on Climate rally
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AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather
Official Boston snow total: 5.1 inches #mawx
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting BahaHurican:
Max,

It's ONLY means "it is". Otherwise always leave out the '.

Makes the presentation look more professional.

Afternoon all....


yes, I noticed that error.. I thought it was so minimal it would hide/blend within.. sorry.
I'll fix it next time and double-check it before upload
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Max,

It's ONLY means "it is". Otherwise always leave out the '.

Makes the presentation look more professional.

Afternoon all....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
New ECMWF takes the trough from New Mexico to Iowa.

So much for significant SE severe wx. :)

And it was horribly cold this morning at a 5k I ran.

Wind made it feel near 17F for a bit.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting palmettobug53:


Probably in/around Florence, SC or the Grand Strand. It was the northeastern part of SC that got most of the white stuff last night.

I was checking around the various local TV stations/news and webcams around 11:00. There was quite a bit. For us, anyway!


Well thats great..
I really enjoyed watching it snow in SC/NC via webcams yesterday..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6775
Quoting AllyBama:



brrrr is right! I was over in your neck of the woods yesterday (you live on the otherside of NAS from my family) and it was quite blustery and COLD! otherwise it was a beautiful day.



Beautiful yes..CCOLD is right..Windy..
Had steady 14-17mph withgust up to 32mph that I saw..
Hope your visit went well..
Going shopping at the commisary in a few..
Such a pain to shop there..
Understaffed,always busy,and very few speak English..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6775
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I have been working on these kind of maps for a while...here is one of them about the potential development of a cyclone in the Mozambique Channel. Southeast Africa. To be updated later



In reality, this picture is about 5 times bigger...just screen-shot it, so not as big.

Click on the picture for larger view...you'll find some differences as to how it looks...


Really nice improvement in graphics Max..
And the time stamp is an important new feature as well.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6775
Quoting LargoFl:
alot of the nations winter veggies go bye bye tonight........DAY MORNING...

FLZ041-044-144-171400-
/O.EXP.KMLB.LW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130217T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.FZ.W.0001.130217T0900Z-130217T1400Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.FZ.A.0002.130218T0500Z-130218T1400Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...CLERMONT
1006 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH VERY COLD AIR SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
30S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TOMORROW NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INDOORS IN ADVANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PETS SHOULD ALSO
BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$


That Freeze warning has a window of 5hrs..
Possibly damage will be minimal..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6775
Very windy across much of the northeast...


Actual temperatures


Current wind chills as consequence
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting yonzabam:


Heatwaves in the south don't kill as many people as heatwaves in the north, because southerners are acclimatised to the heat.


I'd say it's more like there is more AC down here to escape into than up there. Just like when it's cold you wear more clothes. When it Hot and you have no relief you are screwed. This is why a lot of places have cooling centers.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
News sources in the Urals are beginning to report that numerous fragments of Friday's large bolide have been found. It's estimated that as much as 5% of the 56-foot-wide object survived the numerous explosions and plunge through the atmosphere. That doesn't sound like much, but that means up to one million pounds (500 tons) of space rock are spread over the strewn field downrange of the entry point. So far, the largest pieces being reported are about the size of golfballs (see image), with a lot of gravel- and pea-sized pieces scattered about. However, it's likely that some possibly much larger chunks (boulders?) made it to the ground, and are just waiting for a lucky person to find them.


Actually this topic could be arguable (just bringing it out to you guys)... why does the USA have power over extraterrestrial things that fall from the sky? Just because it land on American grounds? No one owns what is in outer space as far as I know...

I understand if there are laws about this etc..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
285. txjac
It's a lovely 66F here in my part of Houston, the skys are clear and brilliant.

Love hearing the stories about snow through ...I miss it.
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I have been working on these kind of maps for a while...here is one of them about the potential development of a cyclone in the Mozambique Channel. Southeast Africa. To be updated later



In reality, this picture is about 5 times bigger...just screen-shot it, so not as big.

Click on the picture for larger view...you'll find some differences as to how it looks...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting Neapolitan:
News sources in the Urals are beginning to report that numerous fragments of Friday's large bolide have been found. It's estimated that as much as 5% of the 56-foot-wide object survived the numerous explosions and plunge through the atmosphere. That doesn't sound like much, but that means up to one million pounds (500 tons) of space rock are spread over the strewn field downrange of the entry point. So far, the largest pieces being reported are about the size of golfballs (see image), with a lot of gravel- and pea-sized pieces scattered about. However, it's likely that some possibly much larger chunks (boulders?) made it to the ground, and are just waiting for a lucky person to find them.

meteorite

Now, you see that person touching the meteorite with bare hands? That's a no-no. If you should ever get so lucky as to witness a fall and find fresh fragments, there are some guidelines to follow to ensure your find has the greatest value to science--and possibly the greatest monetary value to you should you care to sell it:

  • Mark the exact spot you find the meteorite, using a GPS receiver if you have one.
  • Take photos of the meteorite in situ before you move it or pick it up.
  • Use new aluminum foil to collect the meteorite and to store and handle it.
  • Do not touch the meteorites with your bare hands, as they contain moisture, oils, and bacteria.
  • Keep magnets away from them (in order not to destroy any natural magnetism in the rock)
  • When you show the meteorites to others, minimize exposure to moisture (such as from people talking over it).
  • Keep plastics and rubber away from the meteorite. No storing in plastic bags, plastic containers, no touching with gloves.
  • Store the meteorites wrapped in aluminum foil in a clean (no smell) glas jar, covered by a sheet of aluminum foil. Put that jar in a bigger jar with closed lid with some desiccant on the bottom (if no other desiccant is available, one-minute rice will do). Allow the meteorite to dry out in this way to remove all absorbed water vapor.
And now you know...

BTW, a few months ago the BLM issued a memorandum on the collection and sale of meteorites from public lands. The new rules are pretty restrictive--for instance, you can't legally sell any meteorites you find unless you have a land use permit--so you may want to acquaint yourself with them before you head out onto government property.

(For what it's worth, divers searched for a rock beneath that large hole in the ice covering Lake Cherbal, but were unable to find anything. However, they admit the water is murky, and the bottom is covered with several feet of mud, so they'll be going back in.)


Huh, sounds like they're doing like the same/similar as rules thee have for mineral collecting in a lot (all?) of places. I had some gem trail guides/mapbooks when back in Calif, and they always noted rules for each area. Never made it to any proper spots, and my lil' car nearly got stuck in desert sand a few good times! Off roading in a Chevy Sprint 3 cylinder wooo! haha
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Quoting yonzabam:


Heatwaves in the south don't kill as many people as heatwaves in the north, because southerners are acclimatised to the heat.


Less people with air conditioners too I reckon.

Helps to live somewhere you're naturally intune with too. I can't cope with hot and neither can my daughter, so N/W UK is very good for us! she doesn't even wear a jacket in winter..like some of them in the Russian meteor vid!

Gorgeous here in the N Wales hills today....amazingly! And forecast to actually stay that way all week. Clear and about 50'. Not had a spell supposed to be like this, probably, in a few years haha I'm moving house in 3/4 weeks now though...so can't even go out and enjoy it! though actually nicer getting packing/sorting done with some sunshine than being cloudy and grey.

The SST's on the N/W tip of Australia look serious too.
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We got nothing here in Charleston. The rain stopped and the sky cleared before dark. We got some freezing temps overnight. Birdbath was frozen solid.
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Quoting pcola57:


Thats great..
Where in SC are you?


Probably in/around Florence, SC or the Grand Strand. It was the northeastern part of SC that got most of the white stuff last night.

I was checking around the various local TV stations/news and webcams around 11:00. There was quite a bit. For us, anyway!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
Early estimates for the Russian meteor appear to have been wildly inaccurate. Here's the latest, from NASA:

Researchers have conducted a preliminary analysis of the event. "Here is what we know so far," says Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office. "The asteroid was about 15 meters in diameter and weighed approximately 7000 metric tons. It struck Earth's atmosphere at 40,000 mph (18 km/s) and broke apart about 12 to 15 miles (20 to 25 km) above Earth's surface. The energy of the resulting explosion was in the vicinity of 300 kilotons of TNT."

Early estimates
mass 10-40 tons
altitude 20-30 miles
speed 33km/s

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.