Looks like Gamma is here

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:16 PM GMT on November 14, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Depression 27 has improved significantly in its appearance on visibile satellite imagery the past few hours, and it is very likely that this storm will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma at 4 pm. The storm's deep convection has increased and now covers the circulation center, and an impressive spiral band has formed to the south. Satellite intensity estimates from The University of Wisconsin's CIMSS estimate that this is a 1000 mb tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Wind shear has dropped from 25 knots to about 20 knots this morning, which is still high enough to prevent anything more than slow strengthening. The remainder of this morning's discussion appears below, unchanged.

We've seen two systems in the past month, Wilma and Alpha, survive and even intensify in the face of high wind shear. TD 27 has already shown the ability to exist in a highly sheared environment, and I expect it will hold together long enough to take advantage of the lower wind shear expected to develop over the Carribean by Wednesday. The eventual intensity of TD 27 will be highly dependent on its track. If the storm stays in the northern portion of the Caribbean, where wind shear is strong, TD 27 will probably never strengthen to more than a tropical storm. However, if TD 27 can track further south through the southern Caribbean, wind shear is expected to be much lighter. Ocean temperatures are warm enough to allow a hurricane to form, and the GFDL model predicts TD 27 will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by the end of the week.

The computer models did not initialize TD 27 very well in their runs that we have available this morning, so our confidence in the long-term track of TD 27 is low. All the models agree on the basic idea that TD 27 will track westward over the Caribbean for the next five days, under the steering of a strong ridge of high pressure. By the end of the week, the models begin to diverge, with the GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL models strengthening the ridge further, driving TD 27 into Nicaragua or Honduras. The UKMET and Canadian models disagree, and forecast that a trough of low pressure will turn TD 27 northwards in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. TD 27 would then get caught in strong westerly winds, cross Cuba, then scoot through the Bahama Islands to the northeast. No model is indicating that TD 27 will threaten the U.S. mainland, and the storm would have to walk a very narrow tightrope to make it all the way to Florida. With such strong westerly winds blowing across Cuba and the Florida Straights, TD 27 will very quickly recurve away from the U.S. once it gets as far north as Jamaica's latitude.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into TD 27 Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be back with an update late this afternoon when the 7am EST (12Z) model runs are available.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 103 - 53

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

103. AySz88
9:40 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Wow, now I see it. That swirl's moving so fast away from the convection it might have to form a new center.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
102. Pensacola21
9:39 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
new post
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
101. AySz88
9:28 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I don't see that exposed center they're talking about - it looks like it has enough sheer momentum to reform a completely new center if need be.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
100. turtlehurricane
9:26 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
99. cgableshurrycanegal
9:26 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
How about if we all chant *DIE BLOB DIE* would THAT work? ::Sigh:: The official season ends in what, 16 days?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
98. rwdobson
9:16 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
not according to the nhc: "the satellite presentation of the depression has deteriorated since this morning. The low level center is exposed and more clearly discernible. Deep convection persists but only on the eastern side
of the circulation due to continuing westerly shear. Estimating the intensity via satellite imagery is highly sensitive to the center position... but the distance of the exposed swirl from the convection provides confidence that the cyclone remains a tropical depression. 18z Dvorak T numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0... and
the advisory intensity is kept at 30 kt."
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
97. Pensacola21
9:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Bye Dee! Have a great night!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
96. Pensacola21
9:06 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Well you know that's what they are for, lol. Barrier: wall, fence, blockade, barricade, obstruction.... Those islands are natures way of protecting the inland... The beaches could re-nourish themselves, but there are too many houses, condos, etc.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
95. stormydee
9:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
goodnight everyone. :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
94. 147257
9:02 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
yeah wtf and i thought te storm was moving a bit more westerly but i'm wrong
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
93. stormydee
9:00 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
ya 21, its cause they (mailman)had a day off (Friday) and even though they worked Sat, they are still catching up. Its weird how it works out sometimes....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
92. stormydee
8:59 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
LOL 21 :-) Yes, barrier islands is the smarter way...I have to admit though that I thought buying a condo on the beach would be a perfect get-a-way for a weekend deal that I would rent to snowbirds in the winter...I am SO HAPPY that I didn't purchase one....2004 taught me a lot of things!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
91. dcw
8:57 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
It's well enough organized to be a 45-50mph TS.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
89. Pensacola21
8:56 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
My mail man is late too. Still hasn't came and it is about 3:00.. grrr
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
88. rwdobson
8:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
this thing is not all that well organized...maybe it'll be gamma by morning.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
87. Pensacola21
8:53 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
ohhhh..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
86. Pensacola21
8:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Dee - Our beaches are starting to get like that too. I hate it. When a hurricane comes along, everyone that has a(extremely NICE and expensive) house whines because it was washed away. Well, I have one thing to say about that - STOP BUILDING ON THE GULF!!! Key word: Barrier Islands...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
85. dcw
8:51 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
4PM - Still a TD...What in the world are they thinking?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
84. stormydee
8:48 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
oh 21, its Monday and my mail was late.....and then one guy just wrecked on 95 with a trailer full of steel.....and he couldn't get to his scheduled jobs so I had to reschedule and yada yada yada....soon, but not yet :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
83. stormydee
8:47 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Elliston, thats a scary thought, condos from FL to TX...my grandma lives over by Tampa/Clearwater area...and there is no beach, well, there is but you cannot see it because of all the condos in the way....and there is nowhere to park to access the beach or if there is, its packed with cars cause its the only access for miles....sad to think the whole gulf may look like that in the future...where's are environmentalists to buy up that property and protect it?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
82. Pensacola21
8:46 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Dee - You are not headed home yet??
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
81. mouseybabe
8:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
just jumping in here at the tail end of the power line thread...

32 years ago (jeez, i'm giving away my age here) i worked on the underground utilities for coral springs... our foreman told us fpl had plans to gradually bury all its lines... i wonder what the power situtaion after storms would have been like had they done that...

had to quit that job because none of the guys would let me do any heavy work, and the other ladies got a bit peeved...

now, to check on the propections for this storm...
79. dcw
8:40 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Worth noting on the GFDL forecast: the winds are for 950mb...if the pressure is below 950, ground level winds will be higher than shown.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
78. JupiterFL
8:37 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I am the opposite. I wish I could leave in the winter. All the Yankees down here clog the roads and bring there rude personalities. I love the summer in Florida. It's closer to the way it used to be.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
77. EllistonVA
8:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
rwdobson - oh I've had my power out for several days at a time...nothing can change a main line going down closer to the station where the lines are above ground. If all of them were below ground between us and the station, then it wouldn't go out in an ice storm. Still, every little bit helps and every line that is buried is one more that can't be knocked down by a tree.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
76. CoalCracker
8:33 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Wow! Didn't know the property values post would create such a stir. For those of us currently living full time in South Florida, I guess the decision to move or stay is really a personal one. Some folks wouldn't leave no matter what; while others have hit the wall and want out. Many factors will play into the property value game in the future--rising Florida home insurance rates, rising fuel oil and natural gas prices in the colder climes, but the biggest factor will be based on supply and demand. Be interesting to see how the values game plays out over the next six to nine months. One thing, however, is for sure--with the active 2005 season, the media has had a feeding frenzy which has affected Florida's "come on down to Paradise" image. Needless to say, any effects from 27/Gamma in Florida would not be a good thing for any of us.
75. rwdobson
8:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
elliston, a lot of people in kc were convinced they wouldn't lose power during the last ice storm b/c of buried lines...and they ended up at home depot trying to buy generators with everyone else...
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
74. EllistonVA
8:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
The one saving grace for many in the Katrina hit areas is that their properties are selling for several times what they are worth, even with no house left! The sad downside to it is that the Gulf Coast will never be the same, instead of lots of small towns with lots of character, it'll be one big condo development from the panhandle of Florida to the tip of Texas.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
73. EllistonVA
8:27 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Buried power lines are a good idea in most places. Our development here in VA requires them so that we don't lose power in ice storms and in the rather spectacular thunderstorms we get in the spring.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
72. CosmicEvents
8:26 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I think the high end South Florida market may cool off. But the low to mid range housing will go up at the same rate it's been going up for the last few years. Still too much demand, not enough supply, for "affordable" housing. And the supply got even scarcer after Wilma.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5525
71. rwdobson
8:22 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
true, the house to house outages would be shorter, and you're also less likely to get outages from routine thunderstorms when the lines are buried.

Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
69. snowboy
8:20 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Gamma will be a TS for sure at 4 pm and maybe a hurricane overnight if she keeps building like this - look at the latest storm floaters!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
68. stormydee
8:20 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Matilda, I agree...all of the homes in my neighborhood were built in the 60's and are all concrete, up to hurricane codes for that time....the only major damage any of my neighbors had was roof damage, and of course No power for forever....But the homes built in the 80's and 90's had lots of damage....they softened the bldg codes for a couple of decades cause there were no hurricanes in FL....now, all those who have the softer codes are suffering harder.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
67. weatherdude65
8:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
stormy....no it is not worth it, but that is how the market has been going....absolutely ridiculous!!!!!
66. stormydee
8:15 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
rwd - we would still have outages, but they won't be as long for some people...when there's a wire down in a neighborhood vs a substation down, we know whats getting fixed first.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
65. matilda101
8:12 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Well if homes and condos were built to with stand high winds (hurricane resistant windows), powerlines were underground and people properly prepared themselves because Florida is in a hurricane region We wouldn't have been in such a mess. South Florida is the best place to be in the winter, period. Days are warm and the nights are mild. Housing price rise as quickly but they would drop. Just another wicked winter up north will do the trick
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 281
64. rwdobson
8:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Even when power lines are buried, you can still have widespread outages due to damage at substations, etc. I don't think you can bury everything.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
63. stormydee
8:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I know a lot of developers in my town are mandating generators on their lots they are selling...just..in...case! That is smart considering how much power we will be losing to hurricanes in the future until all electricity is underground.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
62. snowboy
8:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
hey skye see what you mean with the models, mind you hard to put much stock in model predictions 5 days out - that having been said, my sense is that Gamma's projected course is the one that would allow best possibilities for intensification
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
61. stormydee
8:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
the house I was talking about is $62,290 market value, built in 1960 w/ 816sq feet....here's the link...Link..yes it sold for $142,000! Check it 65, do you think its worth it? NOPE!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
60. 53rdWeatherRECON
8:03 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Of course no power for weeks is no picnic but bottom line is I love palm trees. Oh and average temps in the 70-90 range most of the year.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
59. oriondarkwood
8:00 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
As far as housing prices here is mine (according to the county its worth 133,500)

Built in 1971

3 or 4 bedrooms (depends on if you classify a 1st floor bedroom as one, I use it for the computer room)

1.5 baths

1650 sq feet (not including finshed basement)

.57 acres of land

A picture of it is on here.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
58. 53rdWeatherRECON
8:00 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
windnwaves,
I too spent my years growing up in New England. An average high temperature below 40 degrees for months on end "is not NORMAL" either. :)
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
56. stormydee
7:51 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Coal, at least 3 homes (if not 10) on every street by my home is for sale....and at ridiculous prices at that...a tiny 3bdrm 1 bath with no fixups and a rotten roof just sold for $142,000...ridiculous! The footage wasn't over 1000sq ft.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
55. scaldisnoel
7:49 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
StSimons,

Where did you read about the data in your post:
"Incidentally, the Katrina death toll is now 1,326 in the US with over 4,500 missing in Louisiana and 120 missing in Mississippi."?

Can you give us a link?

Member Since: September 3, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
54. Skyepony (Mod)
7:48 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
How about the 12z gfdl ~ seems to slow down & turn north.

The 12z ukmet also shows a due n movement after 120 hrs

The canadian shows it brushing along the south side of the n caribian islands ~ 3 major models showing Cuba as the target.~ The GFS is finally starting to reconize it but insists that shear will hamper it harshly.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37327
53. CoalCracker
7:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Dude5,

Ditto on Florida property values dropping somewhat although I think it's a correction rather not a drop attributable to the active hurricane season. Folks from the colder climes are still relocating to Florida in droves. However, I know a number of people, myself included, who are seriously exploring moving out of Florida before next summer. And these are the same people who had no intention of leaving after last year, but reached the pain threshold this year. Be interesting to see how many Florida homes have for sale signs on their lawns as the busy selling/buying period approaches, and if this has an effect on property values.

Viewing: 103 - 53

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.