NHC upgrades Sandy to a Cat 3 in reanalysis, affirms changes needed for warnings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:01 PM GMT on February 13, 2013

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The National Hurricane Center released their final analysis of Hurricane Sandy this week. At 157 pages and 14 Mb, it's by far the largest tropical cyclone report NHC has ever released (previous record: 55 pages from Hurricane Ike of 2008.) NHC upgraded Sandy to a Category 3 hurricane in post-analysis. Data from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Sandy had 115 mph sustained winds at landfall in Cuba, making Sandy the second major hurricane of the 2012 season (Michael was the other.) NHC's report reaffirmed that Sandy was not a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey, having transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone when it was 2.5 hours and 50 miles away from landfall. Sandy officially made landfall in New Jersey as a post-tropical cyclone with sustained 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 945 mb. However, Sandy did bring hurricane force sustained winds to the coast before transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Great Gull Island, New York, between Long Island and Fishers Island, measured a 1-min mean wind of 75 mph at an elevation of 18 m (59') at 4:35 pm EDT on 29 October, about 25 minutes before Sandy lost its status as a hurricane. NHC noted: This observation suggests that sustained hurricane-force winds likely occurred onshore over a limited area while Sandy was still a hurricane.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Sandy was responsible for 72 direct deaths in the U.S., the second highest toll from a U.S. hurricane since Hurricane Agnes of 1972 (Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was the highest, with at least 1500 direct deaths.) Sandy's storm surge was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths--41 of the 72 fatalities (57%). Falling trees during the storm killed twenty people, a rather high number that again highlights that hazard in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, even in locations experiencing winds of less than hurricane force. At least 87 deaths, an even greater number than for direct deaths, were indirectly associated with Sandy or its remnants in the United States. About 50 of these deaths were the result of extended power outages during cold weather, which led to deaths from hypothermia, falls in the dark by senior citizens, or carbon monoxide poisoning from improperly placed generators or cooking devices.

Sandy by the numbers: some statistics from NHC's final report on Sandy:

Death toll: 147 (72 in the U.S., 54 in Haiti, 11 in Cuba)

U.S. Damage: $50 billion, second costliest hurricane of all-time

Cuban Damage: $2 billion, fourth costliest hurricane of all-time

Haitian Damage: $0.75 billion, costliest hurricane of all-time

Homes damages/destroyed: 945,000 (650,000 in U.S.)

Power outages: 8.5 million U.S. customers, 2nd most for a natural disaster behind the 1993 blizzard (10 million)

Maximum sustained winds measured: 93 mph at Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba

Maximum U.S. sustained winds measured: 75 mph at Great Gull Island, New York

Peak U.S. wind gust: 95 mph at Eaton's Neck, Long Island, NY (24 m elevation)

Maximum U.S. storm surge: 12.65', King's Point, NY, west end of Long Island Sound

Maximum U.S. Storm Tide (measured above MLLW): 14.58', Bergen Point, NJ

Maximum Storm Tide at The Battery in New York City: 14.06'. This is 4.36 ft higher than the previous record set in December 1992, and 4.55 ft higher than in Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

Maximum significant wave height: 33.1' at the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC (2nd highest: 32.5' at the Entrance to New York Harbor)

Maximum rainfall: 28.09", Mill Bank, Jamaica

Maximum U.S. rainfall: 12.83", Bellevue, MD

Maximum snowfall: 36", Richwood, WV and Wolf Laurel Mountain, NC

Minimum pressure: 945.5 mb, Atlantic City, NJ at 7:24 pm EST, October 29, 2012. This is the lowest pressure measured in the U.S., at any location north of Cape Hatteras, NC (previous record: 946 mb in the 1938 hurricane on Long Island, NY)

Destructive potential of storm surge: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, highest of any hurricane observed since 1969. Previous record: 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003.

Maximum diameter of tropical storm-force winds: 1000 miles, highest for any Atlantic tropical cyclone on record, going back to 1988.

Diameter of ocean with 12' seas at landfall: 1500 miles


Figure 2. Snowfall from Superstorm Sandy hit 36" at locations in West Virginia and North Carolina.
Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Questions on NHC's handling of warnings for Sandy
In the Sandy report, NHC documents that their forecasts of Sandy's track, intensity, and storm surge were all excellent, largely beating the average error margin for forecasts for tropical cyclones made during the previous five years. However, NHC has been criticized for electing not to issue hurricane warnings in advance of Hurricane Sandy for the U.S. Sandy was expected to transition to a non-tropical system before landfall, and NHC opted days in advance to issue high wind warnings and not hurricane warnings for the U.S. It is quite possible that NHC's decision not to put up hurricane warnings cost lives, since the public pays far more attention to hurricane warnings than any other type of wind warning (except tornado warnings.) In the Sandy report, NHC argues that "Intentionally misrepresenting Sandy as a hurricane would have severely damaged the credibility of the NWS and undermined its ability to serve the public for years to come." Another option to properly call Sandy post-tropical but put up hurricane warnings for the coast was also considered, but "a procedure for disseminating post-tropical advisories with tropical warnings had never been developed, tested, or publicized, and the NWS feared that hurriedly crafting and implementing untested procedures could easily break automated vendor software and disrupt the flow of information to users at a critical moment." The report acknowledges that due to the unique situation posed by Hurricane Sandy, a change to the hurricane warning definition is needed. They propose: The hurricane warning definition would be broadened to apply to systems after their tropical cyclone stage has ended, thus allowing hurricane or tropical storm watches and warnings to remain in effect for post-tropical cyclones. In addition, the NWS would ensure the continuity of service in any situation by allowing the NHC to issue advisories through the post-tropical cyclone stage as long as the system poses a significant threat to life and property. A second proposal: "set a target date of 2015 for NOAA to implement explicit storm surge watches and warnings, a goal NOAA has been working toward for several years. Multiple studies have shown significant confusion on the part of the public regarding their storm surge risk, and highlighted the need for improved communication of this hazard. With the implementation of a storm surge warning, the NWS will warn explicitly for the phenomenon that presents the greatest weather-related threat for a massive loss of life in a single day." Both of these changes are ones I hope get adopted as soon as practical, as the warning information given to the public during Sandy could have been much better, potentially saving lives and property.

Spectacular NOVA show tonight: Earth From Space
The PBS NOVA series is airing a two hour special tonight (Wednesday), called "Earth From Space", a spectacular new space-based vision of our planet. The promo on the website advertises: Produced in extensive consultation with NASA scientists, NOVA takes data from earth-observing satellites and transforms it into dazzling visual sequences, each one exposing the intricate and surprising web of forces that sustains life on earth. Viewers witness how dust blown from the Sahara fertilizes the Amazon; how a vast submarine "waterfall" off Antarctica helps drive ocean currents around the world; and how the Sun's heating up of the southern Atlantic gives birth to a colossally powerful hurricane. From the microscopic world of water molecules vaporizing over the ocean to the magnetic field that is bigger than Earth itself, the show reveals the astonishing beauty and complexity of our dynamic planet. It should be a great show!

Jeff Masters

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EXPECTING A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
VERY POWERFUL UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLASSIC LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY. AT A GLANCE THIS SYSTEM HAS THE LOOK OF
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A BIG QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.
SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH
QUALITY MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF
STATES...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

-BMX
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737

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Largest part of that was yesterdays Earthquake and aftershocks.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Quake from the impact.


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(Deleted) sorry. I saw it on Russian news about the meteor and thought it was the impact crater. Thanks for clearing up the source and subject as a gas explosion.
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wiki has it already easy to understand the astroids they think are coming from different areas of space
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FOR LATE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
POTENT SYSTEM. TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE GOOD AND CONSISTENT FOR BEING
THIS FAR OUT. THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THU AND THU NGT FOR A ROUND OF
STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE OVERALL SETUP LOOKS VERY SPRING
LIKE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR 6-7 DAYS OUT...WILL MENTION THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME.


-Jackson MS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
The Russian army has joined the rescue operation. Radiation, chemical and biological protection units have been put on high alert. Since the explosion occurred several kilometers above the Earth, a large ground area must be thoroughly checked for radiation and other threats.
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JMA Model..Weekend Storm for the east coast



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Army units found three meteorite debris impact sites, two of which are in an area near Chebarkul Lake, west of Chelyabinsk. The third site was found some 80 kilometers further to the northwest, near the town of Zlatoust. One of the fragments that struck near Chebarkul left a crater six meters in diameter.


Weather sattelite Meteosat 10 has taken an image of the meteriote shortly after entering the atmosphere.(Copyright 2013 © EUMETSAT)
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Different space rock.
Quoting islander101010:
i thought the closest the meteor was suppose to come was near bali indo.?

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Quoting yonzabam:
Apparently, some Russian websites are already offering parts of the meteorite 'for sale'. Those Russkies are quick off the mark.


Offering parts of the meteorite? Man, they sure know when there is a profit maker waiting to happen. :-P
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A hole in Chebarkul Lake made by meteorite debris. Photo by Chebarkul town head Andrey Orlov.
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Apparently, some Russian websites are already offering parts of the meteorite 'for sale'. Those Russkies are quick off the mark.
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It showed up on Earthquake sensors, but that could just be the atmospheric explosion. Are there any Sat images of the impact area?
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i thought the closest the meteor was suppose to come was near bali indo.?
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Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for that reminder WunderGirl12..


No problem. I use Slooh for a lot of my astronomy events, like the Transit of Venus. (That was SO cool) I'm going to watch Slooh when the Comet ISON goes past. It's supposed to be VERY bright, and pass very close to earth. :-)
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Quoting pcola57:


Small near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass very close to Earth on Feb. 15, so close that it will pass inside the ring of geosynchronous weather and communications satellites. There is no chance it might collide with Earth.

NASA will chronicle the flyby with a TV broadcast at 2 p.m. EST and a UStream/Webchat event at 9 p.m. EST.
Good morning all. NASA will live stream it IF it misses the earth. I really wonder sometimes if they will tell us when it is going to hit or if they really know for sure. What happens if it hits a satelitte or two? If you can't do anything about a speeding bullet aiming for you what is the sense in telling people about it to create mass hysteria. I hope they are right. I just wish I was on the dark side of the earth so I could try and spot it.

On the Earth weather side, the Florida Keys got the rain last night. Wonderful to see, hear, smell and run through. At last I can see the real color of my car. LOL The rain washed off the protective dust cover. Everyone have a good day.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Wowwwww!!!!!!Seems like if the asteroid explode in the atmosphere, but wowwwwwwww!!!!!!!!this need be a ADVICE TO THE NASA AND GOVERNMENTS TO THING TO COMES


----------------> Link
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Look like we may be able to put a dent in the drought map for a lot of the US

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Quake from the impact.

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Quoting stormchaser19:


This thing have any relation with the asteroid 2012 DA14?


Very probably, as 2012 DA14 passes Earth today, at a distence of some 17,000 miles. It's 150 ft in diameter, so just as well it's passing us.

This was probably a fragment, and has been estimated at just 10 tons, exploding 25 miles up.

You'd think something that small and at that altitude wouldn't cause much concern if it exploded, but there are reports that some 500 people have been injured, mostly by flying glass, and 14 hospitalized. No deaths reported.

NY Times article

Link
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Quoting pcola57:


Small near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass very close to Earth on Feb. 15, so close that it will pass inside the ring of geosynchronous weather and communications satellites. There is no chance it might collide with Earth.

NASA will chronicle the flyby with a TV broadcast at 2 p.m. EST and a UStream/Webchat event at 9 p.m. EST.


Ohh, don't forget that the Slooh space Camera will also monitor the event from the Canary Islands! :-)

http://events.slooh.com/
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Thank goodness it wasn't as bad as the Tunguska event.
1908.
There could be companion fragments to DA14. I'm wondering if all the radar pointing in that region will pick them up?
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Meteor shower explodes in central Russia and Urals injuring people

SOLDIERS have been sent to meteor impact sites in Russia, where more than 400 people have been injured by today's strike.
There are conflicting reports from within the Russian Government, but they confirm a blast was felt in the Chelyabinsk region, 1500km east of Moscow.
A spokeswoman for Russia's Emergency Ministry, Irina Rossius, told The Associated Press that there was a meteor shower, but another ministry spokeswoman, Elena Smirnikh, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying it was a single meteor.
Interior Ministry spokesman Vadim Kolesnikov said more than 400 people had sought medical treatment after the blasts, and at least three had been admitted to hospital in serious conditions. Many of the injuries were from glass broken by the explosions.
Kolsenikov also said about 600 square meters of a roof at a zinc factory had collapsed.
The local office of the national emergencies ministry released a statement saying a meteor disintegrated above the Urals, "partially burning up in the lower atmosphere".
"Fragments of the meteorite reached Earth, falling in sparsely populated areas in the Chelyabinsk region," it said.
"According to preliminary information, four people have been injured by flying glass."
The statement said "numerous calls of panic" had been received.
The ministry said some fragments fell near the town of Satka, about 200 kilometers from the regional capital city of Chelyabinsk.
The office of the governor of the region in the Ural Mountains said in a statement that many calls about injuries and damage to buildings had been received. But there were no immediate confirmed figures or specific reports on damage.
"According to preliminary information, four people have been injured by flying glass," it said.
"At 11:00 am local time (4pm AEDT) we received numerous calls of panic, power cuts and contusions," Interfax cited the local government as saying.
Schools were closed for the day across the region after the impact blew out windows of buildings and temperatures had plunged in central Russia to -18 degrees Celsius.
Most of those injured were treated for minor cuts and bruises from shattered glass, the local police department told the RIA Novosti news agency.

The Chelyabinsk region is Russia's industrial heartland, filled with smoke-chugging factories and other huge facilities that include a nuclear power plant and the massive Mayak atomic waste storage and treatment centre.
A spokesman for Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy state corporation, said that its operations remained unaffected.
"All Rosatom enterprises located in the Urals region - including the Mayak complex - are working as normal,'' an unnamed Rosatom spokesman told Interfax.
The emergencies ministry said radiation levels in the region also did not change and that 20,000 rescue workers had been dispatched to help the injured and locate those required help.
The defence ministry meanwhile said it had sent soldiers "to the sites of impact.''
Footage of the incident broadcast on state television showed at least two bright flashes fill the sky at around 9:00 am (0500 GMT) as the streets filled with morning rush hour traffic.
Amateur footage posted on YouTube showed local men swearing in surprise and fright, and others grinding their cars to a halt.
"At first I thought it was a plane,'' one man told Russian state television.

AFP



This thing have any relation with the asteroid 2012 DA14?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We may even get minor accumulations.

Haven't personally seen snow in over two and a half years.


Morning TA! :-D
Tell me about it....The only time I've seen snow was if I traveled TO it, instead of it COMING TO me.
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Quoting ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC-finally a true chance to see some snow this year

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL.

THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV NUMBERS ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE POTENT WAVE NOW BEING SAMPLED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK HAS MADE THE DIFFERENCE.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ADDING
IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES TAKEN AT PERFECT PROGS DON/T WARRANT A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE BUT WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH
THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER...AND THE FACT I
JUST DON/T SEE SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 40S...A
LONGER PERIOD OF SEEING SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. I HAVE USED A
THRESHOLD OF 41 DEGREES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND 38 DEGREES FOR ALL
SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S.

We may even get minor accumulations.

Haven't personally seen snow in over two and a half years.
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saw this on Facebook this morning..thought it was funny considering the situation

"Great. Now I can add meteor strikes to my list of anxieties."
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Yes it was on. The dust flow moving with the African waves across the Atlantic to the Amazon animation was amazing. I'm sure folks on here that watch those waves as the seeds of hurricanes would agree.
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Quoting ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC-finally a true chance to see some snow this year

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL.

THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV NUMBERS ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE POTENT WAVE NOW BEING SAMPLED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK HAS MADE THE DIFFERENCE. REGARDLESS OF THE REASON...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ADDING
IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES TAKEN AT PERFECT PROGS DON/T WARRANT A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE BUT WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH
THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER...AND THE FACT I
JUST DON/T SEE SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 40S...A
LONGER PERIOD OF SEEING SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. I HAVE USED A
THRESHOLD OF 41 DEGREES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND 38 DEGREES FOR ALL
SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S.
I'm not really that excited for the "chance" of snow on Saturday. If we do have snow flakes, it won't be enough to keep me happy. Hopefully next year I'll see a lot of snow in Asheville, where I'm going to college.
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NWS, Wilmington, NC-finally a true chance to see some snow this year

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL.

THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV NUMBERS ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE POTENT WAVE NOW BEING SAMPLED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK HAS MADE THE DIFFERENCE.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ADDING
IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES TAKEN AT PERFECT PROGS DON/T WARRANT A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE BUT WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH
THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER...AND THE FACT I
JUST DON/T SEE SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 40S...A
LONGER PERIOD OF SEEING SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. I HAVE USED A
THRESHOLD OF 41 DEGREES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND 38 DEGREES FOR ALL
SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
P.S. What did you think of the NOVA special?
I only saw the beginning that looked AWESOME, but will see the rest tonight.


What is it on??? :-D I LOVE Nova. :-D You can learn so many interesting things. :-)
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897. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe threat would be even higher if we could get a better return flow/low situated farther north.



SPC is right with you there. Cold front on Tuesday will leave a fairly cool boundary layer and an easterly flow across the northern gulf as surface high pressure tries to build in. The cool layer will be slow to erode. So we end up with a solid cloud deck in the warm sector. West central TX may fare a bit better but this may time with non-daylight hours along a dryline.

GFS usually underestimates instability this far out so we'll see.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
P.S. What did you think of the NOVA special?
I only saw the beginning that looked AWESOME, but will see the rest tonight.
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Severe threat would be even higher if we could get a better return flow/low situated farther north.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPEARS LIKELY TO COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NATION.
AN INITIAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS COMING
WEEKEND...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOO SOON...AND TOO FAR NORTH...FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE
STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...TIMING
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MORE FAVORABLE INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINS TO OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DOES NOT
APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT...BY THURSDAY...AT
LEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED TO SUPPORT THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 02/15/2013
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........yesterday gfs said rain would be done with florida after today..now look..and the freezing temps are coming
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892. beell
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Drag. Same as it ever was.


If it were over Houston, I'd probably be hyping this like a m...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
I didn't see any impact. I was surprised how many regular people have video cameras in their cars, and fun Russian pop music.
Edit{oh that was the broken glass video} .
It really got bright!
I guess that fragment was too small to spot, but was it associated with the big chunk that will miss us today?
It seems a VERY odd coincidence.
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Quoting beell:
I hate to get all grinchy about southern snow, and the modeled atmosphere does appear to support the production of snow-but offers no guarantee it will make it to the surface. There is a subtle difference in numerical models between snow production and snow accumulation?

2m temps: SREF/GFS/NAM in around 36 hrs.






Drag. Same as it ever was.
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889. beell
I hate to get all grinchy about southern snow and the modeled atmosphere does appear to support the production of snow-but offers no guarantee it will make it to the surface. There is a subtle difference in numerical models between snow production and snow accumulation?

2m temps: SREF/GFS/NAM around 36 hrs.



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879


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Snow on the 6Z GFS!! in FL from 30HR to 42HR



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Quoting indianrivguy:
G'morning everyone

Good evening Aussie!

Pretty impressive stuff Nea, thanks. What do you suppose was all that explosion noise? Was it transiting sonic boomage.. I did not hear the signature double boom.. or was it multiple ground strikes.. seemed to last a long time, I was very surprised.
That first big explosion was probably the overpressure wave from the terminal blast--that is, the object actually exploding as it violently encountered thicker air and, thus, rapid deceleration that destroyed it. The noises that came afterward were, as you said, sonic booms reaching the listener's position at different times, some of them echoing off the surrounding geography. Those repeated secondary sounds have been described in almost every large witnessed fall; it's very unusual--and great for science--that so many microphones captured them this time around.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
Wishing everyone a wonderful Friday and Aussie, a wonderful Saturday! Have a great weekend, everyone!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
54 °F
Scattered Clouds