First EF-4 tornado of 2013 injures 82 near Hattiesburg, MS

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 AM GMT on February 12, 2013

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The strong tornado that swept through Hattiesburg and Oak Grove in Lamar County, Mississippi, on Sunday has been rated an EF-4 with 170 mph winds, making it the first violent EF-4 tornado of 2013. The tornado hit Hattiesburg at 5:12 pm CST February 10, injuring 82 people and causing widespread damage over a 20-mile-long path. Miraculously, there were no deaths.The only other violent EF-4 tornado ever to hit Lamar County occurred on April 24, 1908, according to NWS Jackson.


Figure 1. Oak Grove High School football field near Hattiesburg, MS after Sunday's tornado. Damage was rated EF-4 near the high school, and there was clear evidence of the tornado being multi-vortex over a portion of its path. Image credit: NWS Jackson Facebook page.

The 2013 tornado season is off to an unusually busy start--a pattern we also saw last year. The January 29 - 30, 2013 tornado outbreak now has 56 confirmed tornadoes, including the only EF-3 tornado of the year, which hit Adairsville, GA, on January 30, killing one person. The outbreak is now ranked as the second largest January tornado outbreak since records began in 1950 (the largest: 128 tornadoes on January 21 - 22, 1999 .) NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged twelve preliminary reports of tornadoes on Sunday, from Mississippi and Alabama. This brings the tally of preliminary tornado reports for the year to 100. On average, we've had just 72 preliminary tornado reports by February 10 during the previous seven years, 2005 - 2011.


Video 1. Hotel worker Rynal Grant caught this impressive video of the February 10, 2013 Hattiesburg, Mississippi tornado.

Portlight receives $125,000 grant for New Jersey relief efforts
On September 14, 2008, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ike on Texas and Louisiana moved members of the wunderground community to put into action their own impromptu relief effort. From this humble beginning has grown a disaster-relief charity I have been proud to support--Portlight.org. Portlight has stood up to support the needs of thousands of people affected by natural disasters since Hurricane Ike. After Hurricane Sandy, Portlight became a clearinghouse for local, state and federal agencies, including the FEMA Functional Needs Task Force--New Jersey, meeting the needs of people with disabilities. This week, Portlight announced that they had received a grant of $125,000 to continue helping in New Jersey in a big way. Congratulations, Portlight!


Figure 2. Vince Sciacca was in a horrific car accident a few years ago, which put him in a coma for nine months and left him with a severe brain injury. Shortly before Superstorm Sandy struck, and after much struggle, he had finally straightened out his equipment needs. The storm came along and destroyed everything. Portlight's project manager, Steve Major, delivered this power chair to Vince on February 2, and will be working with him to replace other equipment, as well.

Visit the Portlight.org. Portlight.org website to find out more or Portlight blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!

Jeff Masters

Hattiesburg, MS Tornado (apphotos)
This photo provided by Jordan Holliman shows a tornado moving through Hattiesburg, Miss., Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013. Major damage was reported in Hattiesburg and Petal, including on the campus of the University of Southern Mississippi. (AP Photo/Jordan Holliman)
Hattiesburg, MS Tornado
Hattiesburg, MS Tornado (apphotos)
A business at 5133 Lincoln Road Extension in Hattiesburg, Miss., is damaged after an apparent tornado Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Chuck Cook)
Hattiesburg, MS Tornado
Hattiesburg, MS Tornado (apphotos)
A heavily damaged vehicle sits near the front of the University of Southern Mississippi on Hardy Street in Hattiesburg Miss., Feb 10, 2013 after a tornado passed through the city Sunday afternoon. (AP Photo/Hattiesburg American, Ryan Moore)
Hattiesburg, MS Tornado

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I haven't been to a night club since. Just have no reason to, plus I am married with 2 kids.


Good choice!
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Quoting MTWX:

I'm more of a catch a game at a small bar kinda guy myself....

I don't mind going to the pub with my work mates on a Friday night after work but that's about it.
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Our only hope is this next approaching piece of shortwave energy in the western gulf, if this doesn't overcome the subsidence and stable surface layer, than I don't know what will:




I still have hope that there will be a decent line of storm setting up over the region tonight, but like I said, not with as high of a confidence level.
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631. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:

I haven't been to a night club since. Just have no reason to, plus I am married with 2 kids.

I'm more of a catch a game at a small bar kinda guy myself....
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 130333
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2013

...Slight risk of severe storms overnight along with potential for
heavy rain...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday Morning]...
Updated 1030pm.
Very well defined warm front is currently lifting north across
the forecast office. As of 03Z, the boundary stretched from near
Tifton westward through Geneva County in southeast Alabama. North
of the front, temperatures are in the mid 50s with northeast
winds. Just south of the front, temperatures rise into the lower
70s on gusty southerly winds. Dewpoints south of the front are
well into the upper 60s. Surface low is analyzed over southern
Mississippi. This low will lift northeast overnight, pushing the
warm front farther north. The trailing cold front will then cross
the area late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Combined with
the low level conditions, strong mid and upper level westerly flow
is generating a marginally favorable environment for severe storms
overnight.So far, deep convection has struggled to develop in the
warm sector, possibly owing to some weak large scale subsidence in
the wake of an exiting shortwave. This negative forcing may help
to limit the severe threat overnight.
However, with the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment in place, any deep
convection that does develop will have the potential to produce
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and large hail.

Heavy rain will continue to be a concern overnight, especially for
saturated areas of the panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest
Georgia. Any additional rain in these areas could result in
additional flooding.

For the evening grid update, adjusted temperatures to account for
the warm frontal position. Also updated the PoP grids to account
for recent radar trends.




Looks like my earlier suspicions are correct, while they didn't mention this, each piece of upper energy has passed further north than expected by the models and has bi-passed the gulf coast, hence the subsidence occurring in the wake of today's upper disturbance, the same thing that happened yesterday.

Surprisingly, forecasters are still calling for just as much heavy for the Florida Panhandle tonight. However, I can't help but be rather skeptical, yesterday and last night was supposed to be an 80% chance of thunderstorms with heavy rain wording and the Tallahassee area didn't even get a drop. Today the forecast was accurate, but tonight, well we'll see, but it doesn't look good.


I'm not saying it won't happen, but I'm losing confidence in a the development of a significant solid line of convection to organize like what is still being forecast.

I sure hope it does, cause if it doesn't this would be the 3rd frontal system in a row where we have been expected to see a lot of rain and instead get "robbed".

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Some people can’t be reasoned with

Posted on February 13, 2013

If you keep an eye on global warming denier blogs, you expect to see some pretty stupid stuff. But every now and then they exceed expectation. Sometimes they even take it to a new level. This particular bit was featured by Anthony Watts, but it originates with Steve Goddard.


The stunning announcement is “Most Ice Gain Ever Recorded.” It refers to the fact that Arctic sea ice has increased since its September minimum by a larger amount than in any previously observed season (at least, during the satellite era). For this graph, the “gain” seems to be defined as the difference between each year’s Feb. 12 value and its preceding September minimum (based on satellite data from Cryosphere Today).



Anthony Watts calls this a “stunning rebound” and further opines “This continued growth of ice in the Arctic make the arguments for ice mass loss in Antarctica rather hard to believe.”

What’s really rather hard to believe is that these people can actually be that blinded by ideology, or gullible, or stupid, or all three. What’s really stunning is the vanishing of Arctic sea ice, during all months, all seasons of the year, at its annual minimum and its annual maximum.
...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mother Nature hates me.

But you know what?

I didn't want her stupid rain anyways.


Turn off your weather shield.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



That's why I don't go to clubs, well, that and a many other myriad of reasons...

I haven't been to a night club since. Just have no reason to, plus I am married with 2 kids.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



That's why I don't go to clubs, well, that and a many other myriad of reasons...


Aha, you're married, right?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:br /I couldn't care less about Valentine's Day.


No e-chocolates for you then. Sheesh.

Although, I will do something for MY Valentine at school tomorrow since she won't be at school on Thursday.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

A bit of an overestimation. Although raw radar from just one site has estimated rainfall of up to that amount, a combination of radar, rain gauges, and human QA/QC has a lower value:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=13 60670400&yday_analysis=0&layer[]=0&lay er[]=1&layer []=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=STATE&uni ts=engl&time frame=last7days&product=observed&loc=state AL

Have to be careful with raw radar estimates... they are not as widely used as they used to be. Radars, on average, underestimate at the close ranges, overestimate at the medium ranges, and then overestimate again at the long ranges.



It depends on the radar site too, the one at Ruskin often underestimates totals by a long shot. I've seen many times where rain gauges report 2 to 4 times as much rain as the radar depicts over the region during the rain season in tropical air masses

Typically, stratiform rain with large rain drops is the most over-estimated light precip type on radar. Whereas convection with a warm atmospheric column and a lack of ice in the cumulonimbi tops with smaller rain drops is the most underestimated type of heavy precip.
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Mother Nature hates me.

But you know what?

I didn't want her stupid rain anyways.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting wxgeek723:
Am I the only one who finds this odd?

Hurricane taking on the shape of a nor'easter:



Nor'easter taking on the shape of hurricane:


That's part of what I love about natural science, it "breaks the rules" so to speak.
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Quoting aspectre:
535 AussieStorm: Jim?

McCoy's StarTrek catch phrase transformed via SaturdayNightLive parody into the now familiar

So familiar that often the first two words suffice to invoke the meme.



I'm surprised this didn't get banned yet, maybe the moderator sympathized with you, lol.
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From Taunton, MA NWS...

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATION SITES CLEARLY HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
DURATIONS LISTED ARE APPROXIMATE...

WORCESTER MA.... 8 HOURS
NORWOOD MA...... 7.5 HOURS
NORTH SMITHFIELD RI...5.5 HOURS
BEDFORD MA...... 4.5 HOURS
FALMOUTH MA..... 4.5 HOURS
NEW BEDFORD MA...4.5 HOURS
NEWPORT RI.......3.5 HOURS
HARTFORD CT......3.0 HOURS...AT BRAINARD FIELD

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATION LOCATIONS WERE DETERMINED TO HAVE ALSO HAD
A BLIZZARD...

WESTFIELD MA.....2.75 HOURS...ROUNDED UP TO 3
MANCHESTER NH....2.75 HOURS...ROUNDED UP TO 3
MARSHFIELD MA....2.5 HOURS BEFORE POWER WENT OUT BUT LIKELY CONTD
BOSTON MA........2.0 HOURS CONTINUOUS...BUT 4 OF 6 HOURS BLIZZARD
TAUNTON MA.......2.0 HOURS CONTINUOUS...AT LEAST 3.5 HOURS TOTAL
BEFORE DATA OUTAGE
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey WUGirl. Yeah I did. well, sorta. I woke up the next morning 90% deaf and a hole burnt in my jeans.



That's why I don't go to clubs, well, that and a many other myriad of reasons...
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(Click image for full map)

The GFS 120hr accumulated snowfall prediction for Colorado shows up to 18" in the northern mountains. Looks like the Front Range will get some too...

Of course, the GFS said we'd get 4-6" last weekend and we ended up with about 1.5"... so I'll believe it when I see it.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Link

Birmingham Radar shows parts of Alabama have had 19" of rain since it reset on Sunday. Wow.

A bit of an overestimation. Although raw radar from just one site has estimated rainfall of up to that amount, a combination of radar, rain gauges, and human QA/QC has a lower value:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=13 60670400&yday_analysis=0&layer[]=0&layer[]=1&layer []=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=STATE&units=engl&time frame=last7days&product=observed&loc=stateAL

Have to be careful with raw radar estimates... they are not as widely used as they used to be. Radars, on average, underestimate at the close ranges, overestimate at the medium ranges, and then overestimate again at the long ranges.
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Gino..

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No problem.


I couldn't care less about Valentine's Day.


single people say that...it's normal
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No problem.


I couldn't care less about Valentine's Day.


I bet.



;)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Here

Thanks! :)
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

I keep trying to look for it...cant find it anywhere.

Here
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Thanks for those encouraging words -_-

No problem.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Two days till Valentine's Day and you break your Valentine's heart like that, shame. Apologize mister.

I couldn't care less about Valentine's Day.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting AussieStorm:

From a friend. hehe

I keep trying to look for it...cant find it anywhere.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Where do you get this map?

From a friend. hehe
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You stay sick.


Two days till Valentine's Day and you break your Valentine's heart like that, shame. Apologize mister.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
LOL, my bad! Maybe tomorrow.

Actually, definitely not going tomorrow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You stay sick.

Thanks for those encouraging words -_-
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Am I the only one who finds this odd?

Hurricane taking on the shape of a nor'easter:



Nor'easter taking on the shape of hurricane:
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Forecast track for 98W

Where do you get this map?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is new invest 98W southsouthwest of Yap.


Forecast track for 98W
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More severe weather for southeast TX and south central LA??
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think whatever you are sick with is contagious over the internet. I am getting pretty sick and might not be going until school. And yeah looks like a no-go, maybe tomorrow though.

You stay sick.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think whatever you are sick with is contagious over the internet. I am getting pretty sick and might not be going until school. And yeah looks like a no-go, maybe tomorrow though.
LOL, my bad! Maybe tomorrow.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think whatever you are sick with is contagious over the internet. I am getting pretty sick and might not be going until school. And yeah looks like a no-go, maybe tomorrow though.


Dang it, not another friend sick, :( Get better Isaac, Cody and everyone in chat need you.

I was promised showers, and I don't even see that happening.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I guess the storms won't fire up tonight...

I think whatever you are sick with is contagious over the internet. I am getting pretty sick and might not be going until school. And yeah looks like a no-go, maybe tomorrow though.
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597. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL GINO (08-20122013)
4:00 AM RET February 13 2013
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gino (965 hPa) located at 18.4S 79.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 20.0S 79.5E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 21.7S 79.8E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 25.4S 82.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.9S 86.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================
As the signature on microwaves data GOES on improving, the eye appears always irregular on infrared meteosat7 channels, disappearing temporally within a colder central dense overcast more symmetrical.

Gino is moving southwards on the western edge of the low to mid level ridge. Within the next 24 hours, system should begin to recurve south southeastwards then southeastwards under the combined effects of the ridge existing in the east and a mid-level through arriving in the southwest. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to this scenario.

Over this forecast track, conditions are favorable for intensification as a strong outflow channel is building poleward. System should then reach its maximum intensity today. On and after Tuesday, beyond 21.0S, a westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear should rapidly strengthen, and system is shifting over marginal heat oceanic content.

System is therefore expected to quickly weaken by decelerating on a southeastwards then eastwards track on the northeastern edge of a rebuilding low level ridge. Next residual low should track westwards as it undergoes the steering easterly trade winds influence.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter
The crew and #NOAA49 (#NOAA G-IV) are more than half way done with today's mission. We've sampled surface winds greater than 40 kt

I'm looking for recon info but can't find any. But i did find this not sure if anyone else has seen it. Looks like Christa Clynch Hornbaker is retiring from the Hurricane hunters.
000
URNT11 KBIX 260305
97779 01264 10287 86000 79300 03022 7480/ /8048
RMK AF303 1609A ISAAC OB 22
Signing off with my last recco - God Bless all past Hurricane Hunters and God's Speed to all those who carry on.
It has been a wonderful ride! Christa Clynch Hornbaker - LAST REPORT
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535 AussieStorm: Jim?

McCoy's StarTrek catch phrase transformed via SaturdayNightLive parody into the now familiar

So familiar that often the first two words suffice to invoke the meme.
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I guess the storms won't fire up tonight...
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NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter
The crew and #NOAA49 (#NOAA G-IV) are more than half way done with today's mission. We've sampled surface winds greater than 40 kt
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nevada quake downed a bit to a 4.9.

Edit: And now back up to 5.1.

Back down to 4.9

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT == ***This event has been revised. Region: NEVADA
Geographic coordinates: 38.022N, 118.048W
Magnitude: 4.9
Depth: 9 km
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Feb 2013 00:10:14
Time near the Epicenter: 12 Feb 2013 16:10:14
Local standard time in your area: 13 Feb 2013 00:10:14
Location with respect to nearby cities:
27 km (17 miles) S (171 degrees) of Tonopah Junction, NV
44 km (27 miles) WNW (284 degrees) of Weepah, NV
53 km (33 miles) SE (127 degrees) of Qualeys Camp, NV
72 km (45 miles) W (266 degrees) of Tonopah, NV
304 km (189 miles) E (100 degrees) of Sacramento, CA
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Quoting PedleyCA:
The News here said either he set the house on fire or SWAT did it with a flash grenade. But as Aussie posted he is screwed now....

Supposedly SWAT fired explosives into the cabin and it's very much engulfed in flames. Not sure if Dorner has used the fire as a diversion to escape.
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The News here said either he set the house on fire or SWAT did it with a flash grenade. But as Aussie posted he is screwed now....
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Currently in SoCal.
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Nevada quake downed a bit to a 4.9.

Edit: And now back up to 5.1.
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Anyone watching the Reed Timmer Show on now.
Mike Theiss is the guest Link
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54368
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That residual from North Korea
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.