Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

Share this Blog
33
+

The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

Digging Out (steelrail)
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Digging Out
()
Cornish, ME (Mottoole)
Cornish, ME

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 446 - 396

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

446. beell
4:02 AM GMT on February 18, 2013
Quoting aspectre:
414 beell: The Port Authority report attributed 1.5 mm/year or .15 m over the last 100 years to land subsidence. This represents over half of the .25 m rise in 91 years posted in today's blog.

Nope. That subsidence had already been accounted for before arriving at the conclusion that a 0.25metre sea-level rise had taken place.
Go back a few pages, and you'll see Dr.Masters' similar response to a similar question.
Go back a few more, and you'll see a link to NOAA's explanation of the methodology.


I'll take your word for it (at least for now, lol). Thanks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16121
445. GeorgiaStormz
2:14 PM GMT on February 12, 2013
It's one of those "spring mornings" here.
You wake up, the road is wet, the sky is sunny, with scattered deep gray clouds around, and it's very humid.

Too bad winter is returning late this week.
Unless I see snowflakes.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9718
444. aspectre
1:12 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
414 beell: The Port Authority report attributed 1.5 mm/year or .15 m over the last 100 years to land subsidence. This represents over half of the .25 m rise in 91 years posted in today's blog.

Nope. That subsidence had already been accounted for before arriving at the conclusion that a 0.25metre sea-level rise had taken place.
Go back a few pages, and you'll see Dr.Masters' similar response to a similar question.
Go back a few more, and you'll see a link to NOAA's explanation of the methodology.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
443. Some1Has2BtheRookie
1:11 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting Catherdr:
Long Island NY Mall evacuated due to possibility of roof collapse from snow.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/02/11/smith-have n-mall-evacuated-due-to-significant-leaks/


Smith Haven Mall Evacuated Due To Significant Leaks
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
442. AllyBama
1:11 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!


Hey P'cola, will you share with me over here in Mobile? lol..
BTW, if this really happens, my daugher is going to go into hysterics! They just moved from MD to Pensacola and she was soooo happy to get away from snow!..ROFL
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
441. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:10 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
440. wxchaser97
1:08 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
That supercell produced some wind damage in Panama City.

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather

Winds downed power lines in Panama Beach, Fla., near Highway 79.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
439. aspectre
1:02 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
aspectre: ...the way the tornado twisted the steel beams of OakGroveHighSchool screams "NASTY"
421 Bluestorm5: If I've seen that picture earlier, I wouldn't be as shocked to hear the update to EF4 as I was when I heard of it.

Twas unsettling. Yesterday while the rest of the media (articles I ran across) were pointing at Ogletree Alumni House as if it were showing the as-bad-as-it-gets (with a few also mentioning "some damage to OakGroveHighSchool" along with a photo of a truck and/or a small amount of debris on its baseball field), I ran across that picture of destruction in the DailyMail, a British tabloid.
Totally a "What the ???" moment.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
438. MrMixon
1:01 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


RIP, Pauly Fuemana.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
437. AussieStorm
12:58 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is the news about this.


The Carnival Triumph, a cruise ship owned by Carnival under its Carnival Cruise Lines brand, was adrift 150 miles (241 kilometers) off southern Mexico's Yucatan peninsula


Thanks I know that, I was asking if anyone from the blog was on that cruise ship.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15892
436. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:55 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
This image supports a higher rating than the 170 mph the tornado has been given thus far. Not only is the building flattened, but the metal has been twisted.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31323
435. DeepSouthUS
12:54 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Did you guys check the 18z models of the GFS. It predicts snow in the Central Panhandle of Florida. Yeah, a bit wacky, but impressive.
Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:52 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
433. Civicane49
12:48 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
432. wxchaser97
12:47 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm expecting the cell to die out pretty quickly soon, all the rainfall is dissipating before it reaches the Tallahassee despite a big fat 70% prediction for today.

There is some stubborn subsidence still hanging around, the drought here isn't giving up yet....

It looks to be dieing right now, rainfall rates are decreasing and the hail is basically gone. The warning was also dropped, no surprise there.

NWS just issued a MCD, limited severe threat with a 5% chance of a watch.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
431. Jedkins01
12:43 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
There is fog over me and around Tallahassee indicating a stable layer of subsidence around here, sadly that tells me most of the activity will continue to dissipate as it approaches.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
430. Tropicsweatherpr
12:41 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all, Is anyone from this blog on the cruise ship that is stuck in the GOM and now being taken to mexico with the help of a tug boat?


Here is the news about this.


The Carnival Triumph, a cruise ship owned by Carnival under its Carnival Cruise Lines brand, was adrift 150 miles (241 kilometers) off southern Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on Sunday after a fire that caused no injuries, the company said in a statement.

The engine room fire, which took place in the morning, had been extinguished and the ship was without propulsion, and operating on emergency generator power, the company said.

None of the 3,143 guests nor 1,086 crew were injured, and a tugboat was on its way to drag the vessel to the Mexican port of Progreso,where it was expected to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, Carnival said.

The company said the U.S. Coast Guard had been notified. "Another Carnival ship, the Carnival Elation, is currently on scene and transferring additional food and beverage provisions to the Carnival Triumph," the statement said.

In January last year, the Costa Concordia, a 114,500 tonne luxury cruise ship operated by the Carnival Corp-owned Costa Cruises,capsized and sank off the Tuscan island of Giglio in Italy, killing 32 people.

Last month, Costa Cruises said Italian investigators were looking into the vessel owner's potential responsibility for the shipwreck. The Carnival Triumph set sail from Galveston, Texas, on Thursday, and was due back on Monday Feb. 11.

Carnival said all passengers would receive a refund and "cruise credit equal to the amount paid for this voyage." The ship's next two voyages, scheduled for departure next week, were canceled, the company added.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13926
429. Jedkins01
12:36 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

I didn't even notice it was there until I briefly checked the SPC. New warning for the storm so it is still maintaining strength.


Yup, nothing impressive luckily.


I'm expecting the cell to die out pretty quickly soon, all the rainfall is dissipating before it reaches the Tallahassee despite a big fat 70% prediction for today.

There is some stubborn subsidence still hanging around, the drought here isn't giving up yet....
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
428. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:34 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Cute little supercell.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31323
427. Jedkins01
12:33 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
The latest GFS still has this unusual kink in the jet.



The GFS does some weird things sometimes...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
426. AussieStorm
12:27 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Hey all, Is anyone from this blog on the cruise ship that is stuck in the GOM and now being taken to mexico with the help of a tug boat?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15892
425. GeoffreyWPB
12:25 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Miami NWS Disco

A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTH...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER TO COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE
1000-850 MB THICKNESS TO BE AROUND 1310 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
AROUND 1330 OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLE 2 METER MEAN TEMPERATURE MODELS THERE IS A SPREAD
OF 10 DEGREES FROM THE 00Z GFS FORECAST TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO
AT THIS TIME WILL BE FOLLOWING THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE 2 METER MEAN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE IN LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT 50S EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HOWEVER...REMEMBER THAT IT COULD
BE 10 DEGREES COLDER OR WARMER THAN FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS GUIDANCE. SO CONTINUE TO CHECK
THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR THIS WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
424. MTWX
12:24 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
@WDAMNickOrtego

The NWS now says the tornado was an EF-4 (170mph) around Oak Grove High School and the housing area to the SW of there.


Must've been this building that is rated EF4...



Among others...

In the city of Petal, just northeast of Hattiesburg, a brick-walled Ace Hardware store was completely blown away, leaving nothing but the buildings foundation.

Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
423. Tribucanes
12:23 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Wisconsin has had January tornadoes. January 7, 2008 outbreak sent two tornadoes into SE Wisconsin from Illinois. One in Southeast Walworth County rated and EF3 which cause major damage and and EF1 in NE Kenosha County. Handful of historic EF5's have dotted Wisconsin's history too. Makes for a good historic read. One was in the middle of the night in the early eighties and hit a populated area. They were completely unaware.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
422. washingtonian115
12:21 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Nature is pulling that cruel stunt with me again..I thought sending Sandy my way for my busy weekend in oct was enough..it's back at it again.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
421. Bluestorm5
12:20 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting aspectre:
367 TropicalAnalystwx13: ***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***

Hadda feelin'. That too often shown picture of the second-floor porches / first-floor porch-roofs on the Ogletree Alumni House at USM didn't show much, especially considering how intact the rest of the structure remained. BUT...

...the way the tornado twisted the steel beams of OakGroveHighSchool screams "NASTY"

If I've seen that picture earlier, I wouldn't be as shocked to hear the update to EF4 as I was when I heard of it.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
420. hydrus
12:17 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
This is bazaar whether it happens or not..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20328
419. PedleyCA
12:15 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Now I can add to my Pope on a Soap Rope collection.


Dude, that's COLD. I am not even Catholic....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5624
418. wxchaser97
12:15 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting Jedkins01:



It's strange to see this cell going severe because most other cells are dying around the region.

I didn't even notice it was there until I briefly checked the SPC. New warning for the storm so it is still maintaining strength.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Little bit of rotation on that storm.

Yup, nothing impressive luckily.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
417. aspectre
12:15 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
367 TropicalAnalystwx13: ***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***

Hadda feelin'. That too often shown picture of the second-floor porches / first-floor porch-roofs on the Ogletree Alumni House at USM didn't show much, especially considering how intact the rest of the structure remained. BUT...

...the way the tornado twisted the steel beams of OakGroveHighSchool screams "NASTY"

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
416. GeoffreyWPB
12:14 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
415. PedleyCA
12:11 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Just had a story on the News that the Pope is resigning at the end of the month. It is a strange world we live on..... Says he can't handle the duties...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5624
414. beell
12:08 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Dr. Masters,

Ran across a study prepared in 2004 and accepted/published in: Climatic Change
October 2008, Volume 90, Issue 4, pp 453-473
Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro
Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies
Paul Kirshen & Kelly Knee & Matthias Ruth


The main focus of the paper was an evaluation of the economic impacts of climate change and sea level rise. The authors of the study included some information from a 1992 paper initiated by the Massachusetts Port Authority, Planning Department-Potential Effects of Sea Level Rise in Boston Inner Harbor

The Port Authority report attributed 1.5 mm/year or .15 m over the last 100 years to land subsidence. This represents over half of the .25 m rise in 91 years posted in today's blog.

"Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps..."

None of the papers made any attempt to refute the accepted science of climate change and sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of ice on land as contributing factors.

My question: Is the rate 1.5 mm of subsidence/year in Boston Harbor still considered accurate information?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16121
413. hydrus
12:07 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20328
412. MAweatherboy1
12:07 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
12z NOGAPS for next weekend:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7565
411. PedleyCA
12:07 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


won't see em up there in feb till 2018


They got a special exemption up there?
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5624
410. WunderGirl12
12:05 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting pcola57:


Congrats on the new books you published..
Well done.. :)


thanks pcola57!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
409. MAweatherboy1
12:04 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
More tornadoes have been recently confirmed, an EF1 in Wayne county and an EF0 damage in Perry county: Link

Also, there is a severe thunderstorm near Panama city, FL.

Little bit of rotation on that storm.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7565
408. hydrus
12:02 AM GMT on February 12, 2013
Quoting Ameister12:
Well I just heard the Hattiesburg Tornado has gotten a preliminary rating of EF4. Not surprising since the thing was an absolute beast!
And was a multiple vortex tornado during its formation. Which usually means a large and powerful tornado.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20328
407. Bluestorm5
11:58 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
@WDAMNickOrtego

The NWS now says the tornado was an EF-4 (170mph) around Oak Grove High School and the housing area to the SW of there.


Must've been this building that is rated EF4...

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
406. Jedkins01
11:57 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
More tornadoes have been recently confirmed, an EF1 in Wayne county and an EF0 damage in Perry county: Link

Also, there is a severe thunderstorm near Panama city, FL.



It's strange to see this cell going severe because most other cells are dying around the region.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
405. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:56 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting wxgeek723:


Hey at least it wasn't a February EF4 in say, Wisconsin?


won't see em up there in feb till 2018
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
404. wxchaser97
11:54 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
More tornadoes have been recently confirmed, an EF1 in Wayne county and an EF0 damage in Perry county: Link

Also, there is a severe thunderstorm near Panama city, FL.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
403. Jedkins01
11:54 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)



Doesn't look very conclusive to me, but if it floats your boat...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
402. JNCali
11:54 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!
What next? Icebergs in the Mississippi??
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
401. Bluestorm5
11:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
I'm pretty shocked to see EF4 rating. I must've missed a picture of the damage somewhere... also there is this:

‏@NWSJacksonMS

Storm survey teams preliminarily confirm EF-2 tornado damage in SW Marion County. Seperate tornado track from the one that hit Hattiesburg.


This confirmed that tornado was NOT on the ground the whole time from cell's birth near Tylertown, MS (where the rotation was first seen on radar) to Hattiesburg, MS. This same cell did not lose the rotation until after it hit Millry, AL area pretty hard. This is still likely a long tracked tornado, but not as long as it could've been.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
400. MTWX
11:48 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Video link of the Hattiesburg Tornado.

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
399. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:48 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Some interesting and pretty shocking news...Winter Storm Nemo only ranked as a 3 on the 5-point NESIS (Northeast Snow Impact Scale). 16 winter storms in the region have been worse.

Let's not think that takes away the impact of the storm; it was quite major. But it did not rank as high as I thought it would have.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31323
398. VR46L
11:47 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!


It is the GFS and its 126 hrs out,

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
397. wxgeek723
11:47 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was the first one to think about you yesterday. Glad you're okay. ;)


I wouldn't say an EF4 tornado in February, in Mississippi of all places, is normal. It's highly unusual in fact.


This looks like our best shot yet.


Hey at least it wasn't a February EF4 in say, Wisconsin?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3427
396. aspectre
11:46 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
stormchaser19: It's clearly everything start with the The Industrial Revolution!!!!!!!! The global warming is humans' fault
355 WPBHurricane05: Correlation doesn't imply causation.

But if the dice keep coming up snake-eyes, it'd be reckless to assume that they hadn't been loaded.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

Viewing: 446 - 396

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
77 °F
Partly Cloudy