Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

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The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

Digging Out (steelrail)
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Digging Out
()
Cornish, ME (Mottoole)
Cornish, ME

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The Dixie, Appalachian and Eastern Seaboard states have noticed the re-appearance of a flat subtropical high over Cuba and Florida ahead of each storm advancing from the West, which has resulted in sudden boosts in readings that effectively eliminate short-lived cold spells from the monthly averages.

We are running out of time for the winter season of 2012-2013 do make any kind of turn-about. It is not an impossibility that a lower latitude snowfall threat could emerge. But southwest flow in the upper atmosphere, and increased ridge presence over Cuba and Florida and lack of linkage from tropical forcing in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean says the CFS monthly projection for March (very warm southern and eastern sections) is likely to verify.

Preliminary signs of a warm spring and a normal to below normal tornado season for the nation as a whole and more drought problems central U.S. (SE unclear so far)


The ever unreliable American Global Forecast Model continues to try to bring serious winter to the nation almost coast to coast for an extended period! -- including here in the Southeast. However, its lack of success over the past month make it suspect.

So I suspect the up and down back and forth is more likely into early next month, but the bulk of March turns warmer than normal and spring is here and its on to summer.(and less tornados)
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listen, if you don't understand the difference between causation and influence then you need to learn a lot more before anyone should rightfully listen to your statements on climate and weather phenomena, or your calling out of anybody elses'.

Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..
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Quoting hericane96:


Hope this come true i want to see some snow in the south. Time will tell.


Yeah but I want 6" not .5"

at least 2-4"
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Dr. Jeff Masters: ...in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies.


If the number of intense Nor'easters has not increased, then it can be inferred that GlobalWarming has not increased the intensity of less-than-intense Nor'easters. Otherwise, some of those less-than-intense would have become intense.
Since the less-than-intense haven't been strengthened, the implication is that GlobalWarming also hasn't strengthened the intense
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Quoting Skyepony:


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.


Still not sure I agree with this. A quick look at the GFS analysis just before landfall (sorry for the rushed plot) shows a clear warm core directly above the surface center that has not been absorbed by the front to the west yet. This happens almost immediately after landfall as the center crosses the coast. I think the question should be whether Sandy was somehow subtropical, not whether she wasn't tropical at all, because she most certainly was.

Besides, show me a hurricane coming up the east coast that didn't have baroclinic processes involved with it. It's nearly impossible. That doesn't necessarily mean the system has ceased to be tropical yet.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686


SPC AC 111709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST TUE EVENING/NIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EJECTION OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY REACHING THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY
WED. THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY E OF THE
CYCLONE WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN PARTS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH. TRAILING PORTION WILL ADVANCE EWD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WRN GULF.

...GULF COAST ...
HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. LARGE-SCALE MASS
RESPONSE /ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD/ WILL
OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY ABUNDANT PRECEDING CONVECTION
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD RETURN OF A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS. IT
APPEARS THE INLAND PENETRATION OF A SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR WILL
PROBABLY BE CONFINED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
HERE...BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THIN/WEAK...BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER
W/SWLYS WOULD FAVOR A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND
ATTENDANT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISKS. ELSEWHERE...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY/MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD YIELD A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 02/11/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1740Z (11:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PNHDL...FAR SERN AL...AND FAR SWRN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECEDE A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...A BELT OF HIGH MOMENTUM...MID AND UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SWD TO THE GULF COAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LATITUDE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AIR
STREAM OVER CNTRL TX WHICH WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THEN WSWWD TO ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE WRN EXTENSION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE FAR NWRN G.O.M. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

...NERN GULF COAST TODAY...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SEASONALLY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED
BY PW VALUES OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES. AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING OVER THE FL PNHDL MAY
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THIS GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG PRE-EXISTING
COLD POOLS...AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS OVER FAR SERN
AL...THE FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
SLOWLY RELAX TODAY WITH THE NEWD MIGRATION OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STRONG /50-60 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
PERSIST...POTENTIALLY PROMOTING EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...CNTRL/SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...

A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF MID-MORNING
FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD ACROSS SRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT... LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO
CNTRL/SERN TX VORTICITY MAXIMUM. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST...LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /NAMELY OVER TX/ WHICH WHERE YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...WRN TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL HASTEN
THE NWWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND BENEATH AN EML...CONTRIBUTING TO A
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN ROCKIES
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH
12/12Z. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN
THE STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 02/11/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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Quoting ncstorm:


thanks for the suggestion, but I believe I know enough..

x(koolaid) causes y(mind control)within a certain WU blog..



Sorry, was just trying to give you a baseline education and advice in statistics so this won't happen in the future. It helps to know what you are talking about before attacking other bloggers. :)
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Quoting Minnemike:
let's see if that holds. you've been given as clear a detailed explanation about this as possible by now, citing each retort you've responded to.
so it is clear that you are willfully choosing to disregard the option to review your accusations. and well, that reminds me of...


thanks Mike..always true to your character..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
Quoting Naga5000:


What you call double talk, I call statistical definition. Instead of insults, I would suggest studying up on probability and causation and what the differences are.


thanks for the suggestion, but I believe I know enough..

x(koolaid) causes y(mind control)within a certain WU blog..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..
let's see if that holds. you've been given as clear a detailed explanation about this as possible by now, citing each retort you've responded to.
so it is clear that you are willfully choosing to disregard the option to review your accusations. and well, that reminds me of...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. How is the weather in Jamaica? Here in Puerto Rico we have scattered showers moving thru as a weak front moves thru. Also temperatures are running normal for this time of year (82F is the average for this date) and the lows are between the low 70,s and low 60,s depending on the area.

Hey Tropics! Jamaica has been experiencing mostly dry and warm weather through out the winter and we're also on a drought watch.
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Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..


What you call double talk, I call statistical definition. Instead of insults, I would suggest studying up on probability and causation and what the differences are.
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Quoting Naga5000:


You have it wrong. Direct causation would be x (climate change) causes y (Nemo) within a certain confidence level. What Dr. Master's was saying is that x (climate change) gives an increased probability in causing w (more frequent nor'easters) and z (more intense nor'easters) to occur.


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
Quoting nigel20:


Hi nigel. How is the weather in Jamaica? Here in Puerto Rico we have scattered showers moving thru as a weak front moves thru. Also temperatures are running normal for this time of year (82F is the average for this date) and the lows are between the low 70,s and low 60,s depending on the area.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14600
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Yep wash, i was right.

6"+ DC snow:


Hope this come true i want to see some snow in the south. Time will tell.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

"for every effects there is an equal but opposite cause. But for every cause there is not an equal but opposite effect. Basicaly this just means that you can have an effect and figure out what its cause was but you can not have a cause and predict its effect with 100% accuracy"


You have it wrong. Direct causation would be x (climate change) causes y (Nemo) within a certain confidence level. What Dr. Master's was saying is that x (climate change) gives an increased probability in causing w (more frequent nor'easters) and z (more intense nor'easters) to occur.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The CPC 2/11/13 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5C and that is the same as last week's update.

Link


From Tropicsweatherpr's ENSO blog
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Thanks Dr. Masters...good afternoon fellow bloggers!
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127. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.


But she also had a warm front attached when she was off the Florida Coast . I remember looking at the loops with the show fronts box ticked . My personal opinion was that she was transforming from shortly after the Bahamas . The cold cloud tops were gone, the widening windfield the lack of really deep convection on the sat images .she may have went back to tropical for a while but on the Saturday before she hit I doubt she was truly tropical .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
now there is a fog advisory for my area.. the freezing rain advisory is cancelled
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Here is the Facebook message posted on Sunday by the NOAA NWS about the release on Tuesday with some humor:


NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

Our forecast that the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Sandy would be released on Monday will end up being a tad optimistic. The report is now scheduled for a Tuesday morning release. (Apparently, even after you put them there, one's ducks don't always *stay* in a row.) Tuesday for sure. Really.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14600
Quoting MrMixon:


It appears the crux of the misunderstanding rests on the difference between causation and statistical forcing.

Nea's statement was that claiming causation would be foolish. Dr. Masters did not claim causation. He said that statistical forcing is loading the dice to "roll high" so to speak, making events such as Nemo more likely.

If they still seem like the same thing to you I am happy to elaborate on why they are different and why the difference is important. However, I don't want to waste my time explaining something if you already understand it and you're just pretending not to in order to be argumentative. Hopefully this is just a misunderstanding and you're not TRYING to start a fight with Nea...


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

"for every effects there is an equal but opposite cause. But for every cause there is not an equal but opposite effect. Basicaly this just means that you can have an effect and figure out what its cause was but you can not have a cause and predict its effect with 100% accuracy"
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed

Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
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Quoting ncstorm:


nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?
that was a suggestion to help you understand what he wrote, which you posted in italics and then called 'double talk' when he repeated the exact same point.
indeed, many are reading it and there are even others echoing my very point to you. my suggestion was for you to do privately.. we have all we need here publicly already ;)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Didn't someone post that the NHC has updated it's best track for Sandy before the TCR is out that it was indeed a major hurricane at landfall in Cuba? And the TCR comes out Tuesday as been posted previously.
Yeah, I remembered someone posting that Sandy is officially a Category 3 at landfall in Cuba.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
Quoting ncstorm:


cant twist this one..I dont understand double talk..and then you wonder why we "denalists" have a hard time understanding..


It appears the crux of the misunderstanding rests on the difference between causation and statistical forcing.

Nea's statement was that claiming causation would be foolish. Dr. Masters did not claim causation. He said that statistical forcing is loading the dice to "roll high" so to speak, making events such as Nemo more likely.

If they still seem like the same thing to you I am happy to elaborate on why they are different and why the difference is important. However, I don't want to waste my time explaining something if you already understand it and you're just pretending not to in order to be argumentative. Hopefully this is just a misunderstanding and you're not TRYING to start a fight with Nea...
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Didn't someone post that the NHC has updated it's best track for Sandy before the TCR is out that it was indeed a major hurricane at landfall in Cuba? And the TCR comes out Tuesday as been posted previously.
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Really cool NWS Raleigh is taking questions on Twitter from now until 12:30 pm. I just asked them a question on Hattiesburg tornado. Should be interesting!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
Yep wash, i was right.

6"+ DC snow:
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Quoting rjsenterp:
Is there anything that the good Dr. Masters doesn't attribute to climate change?

"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!
true yes they are
but when yer getting a random event every other day all over the world somethings up unless you are scared and just want to deny it but its not going away in fact there is lots more yet to come

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting ncstorm:


nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?


No, you still don't seem to understand the difference in climate change causing changes in "frequency and intensity" of nor'easters and climate changing causing a specific nor'easter or event.
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Quoting JeffMasters:


I heard a rumor that the NHC report for Sandy may come out this week, perhaps even today. It'll be interesting to see how they classify it.

Jeff Masters
I think I heard Tuesday evening.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
113. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Sandy was subtropical IMO


I heard a rumor that the NHC report for Sandy may come out this week, perhaps even today. It'll be interesting to see how they classify it.

Jeff Masters
There are now 109 days and 10 hours until the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season...
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the climate is ALWAYS changing regardless of what man does geez...cold to hot back and forth thru the ages..stop already
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
7 WunderGirl12: http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_c apstone/the-redwood-forest/chapter/1 The Redwood Forest
10 trHUrrIXC5MMX: broken [address]... at least for me

Try the link. The WUforum program automatically injects a space (or two) into overly long strings of letters, numbers and characters.
Find and eliminate the space(s) in the address, and it'll work.
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Quoting Minnemike:
how do you not get this? you quoted Nea once, which included him stating a fool would think climate change caused a Nor'easter, and he responded saying exactly the same thing again and you call that double talk.
how about You type what it is you think he's saying? then compare that to the statements he's made.



nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
30's and 40's here next monday if this proves true...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New GFS gives the SE a dusting.
Just in time for next sunday when I have to run a 5k in 23F weather, when it has been 50-70 for the past month.



that calls for nearly 20" for my area... I can't take that
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
New GFS gives the SE a dusting.
Just in time for next sunday when I have to run a 5k in 23F weather, when it has been 50-70 for the past month.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we have reached our point of no rtn sometime ago in 2011


well then lets throw in the towel!
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Quoting ncstorm:


cant twist this one..I dont understand double talk..and then you wonder why we "denalists" have a hard time understanding..
how do you not get this? you quoted Nea once, which included him stating a fool would think climate change caused a Nor'easter, and he responded saying exactly the same thing again and you call that double talk.
how about You type what it is you think he's saying? then compare that to the statements he's made.

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Quoting rjsenterp:


"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!


this is true, AGW or not.
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we have reached our point of no rtn sometime ago in 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting overwash12:
So,we can expect more severe Nor'easters due to climate change? What can we do to prevent this from happening?
nothing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting rjsenterp:
Is there anything that the good Dr. Masters doesn't attribute to climate change?

"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!
Is there any weather event Dr. Masters has wholly "attributed" to climate change? I read his blog religiously, and I've never seen him--not once in a couple of thousand blog articles--say, "Weather event X was caused by climate change." But it's possible I've missed it; after all, the man is a prolific writer, and has published many hundreds of thousands of words here. Would you mind too awful much pointing out where he ever said that? I'd be very interested in reading it. (As would Dr. Masters, I imagine.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13628
The amount of snow the 6z GFS piled up over the NE in the next 12 days was hilarious:

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
You beat me to it. The damage suggested high end EF2 IMO. I'm not very knowledgeable with the rating system, though.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
Quoting Skyepony:


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.


Sandy was subtropical IMO
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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