Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

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The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

Digging Out (steelrail)
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Digging Out
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Cornish, ME (Mottoole)
Cornish, ME

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Quoting aspectre:
33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed

Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
Jeremiah?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:
The National Weather Service Jackson office is doing a good job posting pictures and comments to their Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherServic e.JacksonMS.gov
Surveys are, of course, still preliminary and ongoing. Looks like from the pictures the EF3 thinking may be coming from the destruction of outer walls of sturdily-constructed brick buildings and some damage to interior walls of residences.

Via WFO Jackson Facebook:
Here is some preliminary survey information from our survey teams. The tornado was at least EF-3. Maximum winds in the West Hattiesburg/Oak Grove area of Lamar County were 145 mph and in the Hattiesburg/Forrest County area 140 mph. Surveys are still ongoing, and more information will be released as it becomes available.
Yeah, I'm very impressed how NWS Jackson is using Facebook/Twitter to spread around the information to the public. Other NWS offices is starting to do the same, as well as my local office, NWS Raleigh. NWS Raleigh were doing Questions/Answers thing today and responding to people's questions including mine's. I can see a good future relationship between NWS and social media.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting Bluestorm5:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTY TORNADO EVENT
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG...

.HATTIESBURG TORNADO...

RATING: EF-3 (WEST HATTIESBURG AND HATTIESBURG)
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 145 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: NA MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NA YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 82

START DATE: FEB 10 2013
START TIME: NA
START LOCATION: NA
START LAT/LON: NA

END DATE: NA
END TIME: NA
END LOCATION: NA
END_LAT/LON: NA

SURVEY_SUMMARY:
PRELIMINARY RESULTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG
ALONG WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST HATTIESBURG AND THE OAK GROVE
AREA INDICATE A TORNADO WITH INTENSITY OF AT LEAST EF3 (145 MPH).
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS DOCUMENTED ACROSS THIS AREA SO FAR. AT
THIS TIME...NO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS FAR AS INJURIES
82 PEOPLE WERE TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITALS...63 IN FORREST COUNTY
AND 19 IN LAMAR COUNTY. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE MINOR INJURIES
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT THIS TIME. MORE UPDATES WILL
BE PROVIDED AS TEAMS REPORT BACK.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.


$$

AG/SW/JC/DB/CME


DANG!!!! I really feel bad for them... extremely devastating storm
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting yonzabam:


Sea level is measured from the sea bed, so land falling into it would raise the sea bed, creating an apparent (but illusory) decrease in sea level.


I don't think he was implying that the seabed was subsiding as well, just the land area of Boston.
I didnt say he was right either.

He was just saying if their gaugue was just measuring the water level, it could be tricked by subsiding land.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
From NWS Jackson Facebook page:




Here is a picture from the Lamar County survey team at the Oak Grove High School football field. Our Lamar County team reports there was clear evidence of the tornado being multi-vortex over a portion of the storm path.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
interesting note from AccuWeather...

every 10 x 10 square foot of snow equals to 1,300 pounds

stack up 40" (3.3-) that fell in Hamden, CT with 2.5' (Upton, NY) plus 2.1' in Boston plus 3' in Milford, CT plus 2' that fell in New Canaan, CT ..= 10'

this is what you get...

add the area of those downs = 6610 sq miles... times 1,300 lbs per 10x10' to get the weight = over 8.5 million pounds or 4, 295 tons of snow in JUST those cities...

how much the whole snow that fell weighted???
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


All he said was that if the land was subsiding, then the sealevel measurements, and storm measurements, might go up, since the land is lower in height compared to the water.

Whether the sea rose or the land sunk, every piece of land in boston got closer to sea level, and he was just questioning which was more to blame.


Sea level is measured from the sea bed, so land falling into it would raise the sea bed, creating an apparent (but illusory) decrease in sea level.

Edit: Ah, I think I know what your saying. Greater rates of erosion are not necessarily evidence of sea level rise. Very true. Carry on, then.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2892
Quoting yonzabam:






He is referring to city structures that were built upon landfill sites and their subsidence ..
Read his post Again at #167..
A very good explanation of what your not understanding can be found in the link posted by Naga5000 at post #171
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTY TORNADO EVENT
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG...

.HATTIESBURG TORNADO...

RATING: EF-3 (WEST HATTIESBURG AND HATTIESBURG)
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 145 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: NA MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NA YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 82

START DATE: FEB 10 2013
START TIME: NA
START LOCATION: NA
START LAT/LON: NA

END DATE: NA
END TIME: NA
END LOCATION: NA
END_LAT/LON: NA

SURVEY_SUMMARY:
PRELIMINARY RESULTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG
ALONG WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST HATTIESBURG AND THE OAK GROVE
AREA INDICATE A TORNADO WITH INTENSITY OF AT LEAST EF3 (145 MPH).
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS DOCUMENTED ACROSS THIS AREA SO FAR. AT
THIS TIME...NO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS FAR AS INJURIES
82 PEOPLE WERE TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITALS...63 IN FORREST COUNTY
AND 19 IN LAMAR COUNTY. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE MINOR INJURIES
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT THIS TIME. MORE UPDATES WILL
BE PROVIDED AS TEAMS REPORT BACK.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.


$$

AG/SW/JC/DB/CME
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
The National Weather Service Jackson office is doing a good job posting pictures and comments to their Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherServic e.JacksonMS.gov
Surveys are, of course, still preliminary and ongoing. Looks like from the pictures the EF3 thinking may be coming from the destruction of outer walls of sturdily-constructed brick buildings and some damage to interior walls of residences.

Via WFO Jackson Facebook:
Here is some preliminary survey information from our survey teams. The tornado was at least EF-3. Maximum winds in the West Hattiesburg/Oak Grove area of Lamar County were 145 mph and in the Hattiesburg/Forrest County area 140 mph. Surveys are still ongoing, and more information will be released as it becomes available.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:



How is it an intelligent question? As far as I can make out, he's suggesting that subsiding landfill sites falling into the sea off Boston will raise the sea level there, which is nonsensical.



All he said was that if the land was subsiding, then the sealevel measurements, and storm measurements, might go up, since the land is lower in height compared to the water.

Whether the sea rose or the land sunk, every piece of land in boston got closer to sea level, and he was just questioning which was more to blame.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting pcola57:


That's a very intelligent question TexasAlchemist..
Anyone with a equally intelligent answer would certainly help clear that question up with me also..



How is it an intelligent question? As far as I can make out, he's suggesting that subsiding landfill sites falling into the sea off Boston will raise the sea level there, which is nonsensical.

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2892
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it's more unusual in the northeast though, add that to the news bias.



This is true, but I'm sure you get my point. To be fair, the media can only cover so many stories, so naturally there will be a focus on the more rare, or surprising in the most populated areas, or at least what is promoted as rare, or perceived as rare by the general public.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Quoting pcola57:


A very pertinent read Naga5000..
Will take me a few to digest it..
So far it seems spot on..


The NOAA is top notch in clearly stating their methodological approach. I think this is one thing that's not really understood in the climate change argument. The signals that would make the data problematic and unreliable have been accounted for. That's why these have made it through the peer review process.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Better precip outlook for drought areas in the 8-14.



Cold retreats from the east half.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Naga5000:


I believe so. Here is a great paper that discusses subsidence in sea level measurement and what is done to account for it in calculations. Link


A very pertinent read Naga5000..
Thank you..
Will take me a few to digest it..
So far it seems spot on..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Not much precip for drought areas in the 6-10.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.
Many people that posted here yesterday relayed a lot of information relevant to the severe weather outbreak, especially the Hattiesburg Tornado. The Doc probably would have posted a segment if the weather event was not so well addressed already here by members..jmo
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Quoting ncstorm:


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

If you are not trying to start a fight, then you should read up on the topic, figure out your misunderstanding, and let it go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



Of course, and if the same event happened in the northeast, we'd be hearing about it for months, along with how it could be blamed on GW as well.


it's more unusual in the northeast though, add that to the news bias.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
the last time I'm putting it up...
________________________


For those here who hasn't ... check my storm blog out...

BLIZZARD NEMO


I have lots of pictures and info, in addition, I added new radar, power outages information, Acknowledgments, snow fish and some new pictures... feel free to go to leave a comment
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
151 MississippiWx: Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention.

Likely waiting for some official reports.
The news media is adequately covering the damage to Hattiesburg. HOWEVER, there were at least 7 more tornadoes yesterday (one of which was playing follow-the-leader with the Hattiesburg tornado) about which there has been no media coverage.
Waiting for trustable information, rather than engaging in speculation, seems to me to be de rigeur for a weather blog rather than a sign of any lack of caring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasAlchemist:
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.


You think landslips falling into the water is going to raise the sea level??
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2892
Quoting TexasAlchemist:
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.


I believe so. Here is a great paper that discusses subsidence in sea level measurement and what is done to account for it in calculations. Link

Edited to say: Since that graph comes from the NOAA, yes subsidence (if any) is accounted for in the calculations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.



Of course, and if the same event happened in the northeast, we'd be hearing about it for months, along with how it could be blamed on GW as well.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Quoting TexasAlchemist:
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.


That's a very intelligent question TexasAlchemist..
Anyone with a equally intelligent answer would certainly help clear that question up with me also..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting EricSpittle:

Glad you're okay, but seriously you're mad that national news media covers major population centers more than podunk backwood towns in Mississippi? That seems a bit... whiney.
Hattiesburg is not a town. It's a small city, home to 52,000 people. 100,000+ people live in the metro area surrounding the city.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSpittle:

Glad you're okay, but seriously you're mad that national news media covers major population centers more than podunk backwood towns in Mississippi? That seems a bit... whiney.


hattiesburg isnt that tiny...150,000 people metro area.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
The only other system of note is 10+ days out, prob wont verify either.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.

Glad you're okay, but seriously you're mad that national news media covers major population centers more than podunk backwood towns in Mississippi? That seems a bit... whiney.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"..

so Nea..is Dr. Masters a fool?

"Only a fool would make the claim that tomorrow's potentially historic nor'easter will be "caused" by global warming--and only a bigger fool would make the claim that anyone credible has said that. After all, there's a whole world of difference between saying climate change caused a specific weather event and saying climate change made that specific weather event worse. Denialists know that, which is why they desperately work themselves into a lather making lame strawman arguments in the hopes that the lesser-informed won't recognize the difference."

Seems like we're going to have to explain this once again. There is a very fundamental difference between climate change causing one specific event and climate change altering the frequency/intensity of events. This is clear upon reading Dr. Masters' comments and the comments of other persons on this blog.

Perhaps some light reading of the scientific literature on how climate changes can affect extreme events would be in order?
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Quoting stratcat:
Perhaps the earth is still recovering from the mini ice-age...

The earth doesn't just "recover from a mini ice age" because it wants to. The earth's climate changes because the physical forcings of climate cause it to change. If the causes of the little ice age remained, that would continue to be the stable climate regime. And if the solar energy evident at the earth's atmosphere from changes in the earth's orbital positions remained constant, the climate would remain roughly stable.
These natural forcings have been the dominant factor in slower, past climate change. They are not a strong factor in the faster, modern warm period - the strongest factor is the energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics! Jamaica has been experiencing mostly dry and warm weather through out the winter and we're also on a drought watch.


Hopefully,things start to moisten over there very soon.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13992
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.


Good to hear that you came through the Tornado OK.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5669
MississippiWx, glad to see you're okay, we were worried for you yesterday.

I just finished a quick blog on Gino if anyone's interested, hasn't been much tropical activity to blog on lately!

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?


Quoting ncstorm:


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

"for every effects there is an equal but opposite cause. But for every cause there is not an equal but opposite effect. Basicaly this just means that you can have an effect and figure out what its cause was but you can not have a cause and predict its effect with 100% accuracy"



Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..


Hey ncstorm..
I appreciate you as a blogger here for sure..
That's why I suggest looking back at the responses given to you about this subject..
I didn't count them, but many respected bloggers tried to help you with understanding the differences you have on what Dr. Masters and Nea wrote..
Please take the time to once again read them over again..
I believe that, with a little flexibility of understanding what was written,that you may get that "Ahaaa!!" moment that I have had several times experienced in trying to understand info here at WU..
And believe me,I'm the hard-headed type myself..
Here's to you keeping an open mind.. :)


(PS..And ,as you well know,I'm not part of anyones Army.. :)
Thanks for giving this a read ncstorm..
Peace
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.



So you are ok. We were wondering about you.

The true tornado alley got slammed yesterday.
It's an ALL YEAR tornado alley.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
This would be fun

60kts at 925mb:


Quite the LLJ at 850:


750mb screaming:


500mb decent:


But typically no warmth at the surface = rain, as the pattern isnt conducive to any real severe wx:


Btw THIS WILL NOT verify anyway

but would have been a nice hodograph, off the charts:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.
I was asking the same thing on first page of this discussion. Glad you're okay. We realized after Hattiesburg tornado went through that you're in that city and we got worried. Did your home made it?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
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"Nea's army"?! You sir (or ma'am) are out of line. The suggestion that our only motivation in responding to you is to blindly defend Nea is baseless and insulting.

This "army", if you insist upon calling it that, is defending science and critical thinking, not a particular blogger.

I'll remember not to waste my time responding to your posts going forward. Very disappointing.

Moving on...

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Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.
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Damn, latest GFS has the first and second storms being a swing and a miss for my area. Come on third one :)
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@NWSJacksonMS: Very prelim survey info: Tornado in the Hattiesburg at least EF-3. Max winds 140mph in Hattiesburg, 145mph in W HBG/Oak Grove area.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
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Quoting JeffMasters:


I heard a rumor that the NHC report for Sandy may come out this week, perhaps even today. It'll be interesting to see how they classify it.

Jeff Masters
Nor,icane.?...:)
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The Dixie, Appalachian and Eastern Seaboard states have noticed the re-appearance of a flat subtropical high over Cuba and Florida ahead of each storm advancing from the West, which has resulted in sudden boosts in readings that effectively eliminate short-lived cold spells from the monthly averages.

We are running out of time for the winter season of 2012-2013 do make any kind of turn-about. It is not an impossibility that a lower latitude snowfall threat could emerge. But southwest flow in the upper atmosphere, and increased ridge presence over Cuba and Florida and lack of linkage from tropical forcing in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean says the CFS monthly projection for March (very warm southern and eastern sections) is likely to verify.

Preliminary signs of a warm spring and a normal to below normal tornado season for the nation as a whole and more drought problems central U.S. (SE unclear so far)


The ever unreliable American Global Forecast Model continues to try to bring serious winter to the nation almost coast to coast for an extended period! -- including here in the Southeast. However, its lack of success over the past month make it suspect.

So I suspect the up and down back and forth is more likely into early next month, but the bulk of March turns warmer than normal and spring is here and its on to summer.(and less tornados)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.