Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

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The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

Digging Out (steelrail)
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Digging Out
()
Cornish, ME (Mottoole)
Cornish, ME

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246. Bluestorm5
7:59 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Serious damage to a building on campus of Southern Miss.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
245. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:57 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
____________________________

Forecast from Tomorrow through Wednesday



click image for larger view
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
244. LargoFl
7:55 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
would be great if this stalls out by me but it wont...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
243. MississippiWx
7:55 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Not to belittle the obvious suffering and damage to the Hattiesburg area, but tornado damage thus far appears to be EF3 in a few areas. Likely to be several homes that will need major repairs or reconstruction, however, tornadoes of this magnitude and width do not typically cause damage that most would call "[wiping] out." Tornadoes of EF3 magnitude are also not that uncommon.
It's bad... it always seems worse when you live there, for good reason - it's the place you call home. But it wasn't a mile wide EF4/5, either.


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
242. LargoFl
7:52 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
241. LargoFl
7:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
for East central Florida...........DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE
TO MELBOURNE LINE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
240. Levi32
7:49 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
From the Dr's post:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"

I would be interested to see where that conclusion was drawn from, Dr. Masters. I know you usually cite your claims, but you did not do so here, and it's a rather big claim. The statistical analysis going into it would be a good read, I think.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
239. pcola57
7:48 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6772
238. LargoFl
7:48 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Breezy here around me but no rain...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
237. LargoFl
7:47 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting pcola57:
Here you go Largo..

From Wikipedia..

"Mardi Gras in Mobile, is the annual Carnival celebration in Mobile, Alabama. It is the oldest annual Carnival celebration in the United States, having started in 1703. This was fifteen years before New Orleans was founded, although today their celebrations are much more widely known.[1][2][3] From Mobile being the first capital of French Louisiana (1702), the festival began as a French Catholic tradition. Mardi Gras in Mobile has now evolved into a mainstream multi-week celebration across the spectrum of cultures in Mobile, becoming school holidays for the final Monday and Tuesday (some include Wednesday),regardless of religious affiliation"
ok TY..I didnt know that, just learned something new..always thought of NO for this celebration
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
236. Bluestorm5
7:46 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Wasn't necessarily meant to be criticism toward anyone in particular, just pointing out that in situations like, emotions can take over and make things seem worse. But again, it's understandable for it to seem that way when it's your home.
Actually I agree. That's what make NWS people so good at their jobs surveying the tornadoes. They don't let emotions take over. The most famous example is so many people claimed that Tuscaloosa tornado was an EF5 prematurely, but NWS decided that there was not enough evidence for EF5 rating for that certain tornado.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
235. LargoFl
7:46 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting pcola57:


Actually Mobile was home to Mrdi Gra before New orleans..
Can't back it up right now but give me a few..
ok, hope the rain and flooding doesnt stop the festivities there.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
234. pcola57
7:45 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Here you go Largo..

From Wikipedia..

Link



"Mardi Gras in Mobile, is the annual Carnival celebration in Mobile, Alabama. It is the oldest annual Carnival celebration in the United States, having started in 1703. This was fifteen years before New Orleans was founded, although today their celebrations are much more widely known.[1][2][3] From Mobile being the first capital of French Louisiana (1702), the festival began as a French Catholic tradition. Mardi Gras in Mobile has now evolved into a mainstream multi-week celebration across the spectrum of cultures in Mobile, becoming school holidays for the final Monday and Tuesday (some include Wednesday),regardless of religious affiliation"
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6772
233. ScottLincoln
7:43 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, it was MississippiWX's wording, not mine. I agree EF3 doesn't "wiped out" a neighborhood. I don't see anything that is "wipped out" in photos either.

Wasn't necessarily meant to be criticism toward anyone in particular, just pointing out that in situations like, emotions can take over and make things seem worse. But again, it's understandable for it to seem that way when it's your home.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
232. pcola57
7:43 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
do they have parades for this in Miss/alabama too?


Actually Mobile was home to Mardi Gra before New Orleans..
Can't back it up right now but give me a few..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6772
231. LargoFl
7:43 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
230. LargoFl
7:41 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
do they have parades for this in Miss/alabama too?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
229. LargoFl
7:39 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
118 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALC061-069-112130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130211T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GENEVA AL-HOUSTON AL-
118 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR
HOUSTON AND GENEVA COUNTIES...

AT 114 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS GENEVA AND HOUSTON
COUNTY HAD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED. HOWEVER...LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT CONTINUED TO REPORT ONGOING FLOODING WITHIN THE WARNED
AREA FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36941
228. Bluestorm5
7:39 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Not to belittle the obvious suffering and damage to the Hattiesburg area, but tornado damage thus far appears to be EF3 in a few areas. Likely to be several homes that will need major repairs or reconstruction, however, tornadoes of this magnitude and width do not typically cause damage that most would call "[wiping] out." Tornadoes of EF3 magnitude are also not that uncommon.
It's bad... it always seems worse when you live there, for good reason - it's the place you call home. But it wasn't a mile wide EF4/5, either.
Well, it was MississippiWx's wording, not mine. I agree EF3 doesn't "wiped out" a neighborhood. I don't see anything that is "wipped out" in photos, either. However, EF3 is strong enough to damages homes and that's what happened to folks in Hattiesburg.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
227. Xyrus2000
7:37 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting stratcat:
We've seen powerful winter storms like this in the past. You need cold air to mix with warm to produce a storm. Where's the proof that MAN is creating global warming?


Non-sequiter. You're confusing weather and climate.

Can't be proven.


Consideing that just about the entire climate science community disagrees with that statement, I find your lack of evidence to the contrary severely lacking. I can download and read their peer-reviewed research. I can go and download the data, and even the models used. While you provide nothing more than an ideological statement.

The earth has had far greater cataclysmic events in history than can be accounted for by our very recent technological meteorological studies.


You keep confusing meteorology (which is the study of weather) and climatology (which is the study of climate). Meterology has nothing to do with paleoclimate studies. Also comparing paleoclimate with modern climate is apples and oranges. Continents were different. Ocean currents were different. Paleoclimate studies give insight into the factors and their impacts of climate change, but you cannot simply compare modern and historical climates without taking into account the differences between those time periods.

More people in the way, more people able to report in greater detail than in our not-so-distant past.


People aren't the only things recording climate conditions. Sediment cores, ice cores, tree rings, etc. are all proxies the keep a record of climate conditions. There's a ton of research regarding proxies and a lot of it can be found with doign a google search. But we both know you won't do that.

In short, I'm sorry Dr. Masters, but I just can't agree with you that man is responsible.


For what? The snowstorm? Dr. M doesn't say anything like that in his blog. He simply states that a warmer climate will end up increasing the liklihood of such events (and he included references at the end to the research that indicates as much).

As far as AGW goes, there is plenty of evidence that humans are the primary factor. In fact, AGW was predicted over a century ago and all the science and data done since then has only further validated the theory.

Man has a tough enough time just putting together a regular or long-range forecast, much less determining if and how the earth is warming.


You really need to learn about the difference between climate and weather. Your arguments really sound silly when you make statments like this.

And two other things can be said: one is censorship on the part of people that disagree with global warming...


This statement right here destroys any credibility of your argument. Your argument is so weak that you use the same conspiracy theory based argument that "Free Energy" snakeoil salesman trying to get suckers to buy into their schemes.

If you want to convince people, try doing some rigorous research and back your results up by solid data. As it stands, your argument wouldn't stand up to a junior high debate team.

and two is the cause of land mass changes occurring due to melting ice, which is a lot of hogwash.


No it isn't. And once again you make a statement with no evidence and in fact is contrary to what current science and data show.

Perhaps the earth is still recovering from the mini ice-age, prior to which, Greenland was actually green, viable farmland.


Greenland hasn't been "green" for thousands and thousands of years. Ice packs thousands of feet thick don't form in a couple hundred years.

It isn't today because we may still be recovering from anomalous cold rather than creating anomalous warm climate.


But it isn't. The historical data show the Earth had been steadily cooling along with a steady decrease in GHG's. As the industrial reveolution started kicking into high gear through the last century this trend reversed in concurrence with the increase of GHG's. Solar output has remained constant. Orbital dynamics remain the same. Therefore, something on our planet has changed to retain more heat. The conclusion is so obvious that even my 7 year old can figure it out dong a simple at-home CO2 experiment.

The Earth doesn't warm up and cool off just because it wants to. It takes planet-wide changes to alter the global climate.

In short, climatology has become pure politics and greed.


Yet another ludicrous stament backed by no facts. The fossil fuel industry mkes orders of magnitude more money. A single quarter of profit from a single oil company could pay for the entire climate science budget 15 to 20 times over. The worth of the green industry is an accounting error to the fossil fuel industry. If scientists wanted to make bank, they'd ditch their integrity and go work for Exxon.

If your looking for money, you're not going to find it being a climate scientist.

India and China are doing far more to the environment than we ever did,


False. Only within the past 30 or 40 years or so have we really started cleaning up our act. And even now we are still one of the largest producers of GHGs. Noise is being made, but ultimately those countries will have to take steps on their own.

All that being said, this does nothing to strengthen your original argument.

Yet where is all the noise about their activity? The UN can just get off our backs about the way we live.


To quote The Princess Bride: "Truly you have a dizzying intellect."
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1453
226. NyFan1
7:32 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Seems to still be potential for snow later this week for the east. The mid-week snowstorm could probably droop anywhere from a dusting to a few inches from the mid-atlantic through the Northeast depending on precip type this storm also appears to be a quick mover.

Potential for next weekend's storm however seems like it could be the bigger of the two. Latest GFS shows snow up and down the east and as far south as Georgia! Obviously we will need to see more consistency with these runs before any predictions of a legit threat for a big snowstorm, but something to look for.
Member Since: January 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
225. GeorgiaStormz
7:32 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
10 more feet till local lakes fill up...will take a lot of rain. Btw these will never flood:


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
224. ScottLincoln
7:32 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
He said his neighborhood was "wiped out".

Not to belittle the obvious suffering and damage to the Hattiesburg area, but tornado damage thus far appears to be EF3 in a few areas. Likely to be several homes that will need major repairs or reconstruction, however, tornadoes of this magnitude and width do not typically cause damage that most would call "[wiping] out." Tornadoes of EF3 magnitude are also not that uncommon.
It's bad... it always seems worse when you live there, for good reason - it's the place you call home. But it wasn't a mile wide EF4/5, either.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
223. ChillinInTheKeys
7:31 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Dakster:
Was it wet or dry snow? Makes a big difference. Light, fluffy snow may weigh 5 lb per cubic foot and wet snow may weigh up to 12.5 lbs...

Big difference when computing snow weight loads on roofs. But yes, a lot of weight regardless.

Isn't that why they make snow rakes and have high pitched roofs in area that get a lot of snow?


I just picked 10 pounds per foot for an easy calculation and to show that 278 million pound per square mile for just one foot of snow is a heck of a lot more than "over 8.5 million pounds or 4,295 tons of snow in JUST those cities..."
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
222. GeorgiaStormz
7:28 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
This rainy pattern results in worse flooding every time around.
IF we keep this up with the systems the GFS shows next week and so on, we'll have a problem:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
221. GeorgiaStormz
7:27 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting biff4ugo:
Wow! that is a heck of alot of bake sales to put that football stadium back together. You could see the multiple vorticies in the videos circling each other. Especially the "closeup" one.



Which video?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
220. VR46L
7:24 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting aspectre:
CaicosRetiredSailor: Please refrain from quoting the whackos...
202 VR46L: Who are you calling a Whacko?

Reverse psychology -- obviously I'm not being quoted often enough -- "tell folks not to do somethin'..."


LOL !!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6837
219. biff4ugo
7:24 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Wow! that is a heck of alot of bake sales to put that football stadium back together. You could see the multiple vorticies in the videos circling each other. Especially the "closeup" one.

Did any of the ski mountains to the south get some of the benefit from the NemoSnow?

Will the deep snow lead to flooding soon or will it just be a helpful wet spring?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1548
218. Dakster
7:24 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Was it wet or dry snow? Makes a big difference. Light, fluffy snow may weigh 5 lb per cubic foot and wet snow may weigh up to 12.5 lbs...

Big difference when computing snow weight loads on roofs. But yes, a lot of weight regardless.

Isn't that why they make snow rakes and have high pitched roofs in area that get a lot of snow?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
217. Bluestorm5
7:23 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks Blue I just backread and saw that. Just wondering if he was in the twister itself.
Me too. He got a story to tell, I'm betting...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
216. Speeky
7:21 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Big snows for the Northeast coming up.

Feb 13 - 14
Feb 16 - 17

How much snow do you think the northeast might get? I am guessing 6 inches each. Possible 12 inches in some places.

GFS NAM and GGEM are all on board with these dates.
Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 296
215. Tribucanes
7:20 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Thanks Blue I just backread and saw that. Just wondering if he was in the twister itself.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
214. Bluestorm5
7:17 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Tribucanes:
Nor'easter was a historical event while Hattiesburg tornado was hashed over greatly yesterday; just don't think the good Dr. has much more to offer on it currently. Wunderground has all the pictures and info that are current on the tornado. Nor'easter killed quite a few and had an enormous financial and personal impact. The site is by no means ignoring the Hattiesburg twister. Dr. Masters should have mentioned the tornado in passing at least; it was a major event with a very high number of injuries and a large financial impact for Hattiesburg and the University. I'm sure it was an unintentional oversight on his part. I'd expect him to comment on the tornado this afternoon or tomorrow in his blog. How close was the tornado to our blog member who lives in Hattiesburg?
He said his neighborhood was "wiped out".
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
213. aspectre
7:15 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
CaicosRetiredSailor: Please refrain from quoting the whackos...
202 VR46L: Who are you calling a Whacko?

Reverse psychology -- obviously I'm not being quoted often enough -- "tell folks not to do somethin'..."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
212. Tribucanes
7:14 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Nor'easter was a historical event while Hattiesburg tornado was hashed over greatly yesterday; just don't think the good Dr. has much more to offer on it currently. Wunderground has all the pictures and info that are current on the tornado. Nor'easter killed quite a few and had an enormous financial and personal impact. The site is by no means ignoring the Hattiesburg twister. Dr. Masters should have mentioned the tornado in passing at least; it was a major event with a very high number of injuries and a large financial impact for Hattiesburg and the University. I'm sure it was an unintentional oversight on his part. I'd expect him to comment on the tornado this afternoon or tomorrow in his blog. How close was the tornado to our blog member who lives in Hattiesburg?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
211. pcola57
7:09 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
.44" of rain since midnight here..
Looks like plenty more headed my way..
Forecast calling for 2 more days of this here..



Some pop-ups getting going now..

1 KM Visible Satellite for Mississippi

1 KM Radar Mosaic for Mississippi



High dew points and humidity..



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6772
210. ChillinInTheKeys
7:08 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well you changed numbers there... but it still means there is a huge weight from that snow in roofs, trees and grounds


I actually lowered the weight to 1000 pounds per 10' x 10' area.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
209. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:06 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Assuming a cubic foot of snow weighs 10 pounds with 43,560 feet per acre and 640 acres in a mile...

10 x 43,560 x 640 = 278,784,000 pounds per square mile for each foot of snow or 139392 tons per square mile.


well you changed numbers there... but it still means there is a huge weight from that snow in roofs, trees and grounds
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
208. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
7:03 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I don't think he was implying that the seabed was subsiding as well, just the land area of Boston.
I didnt say he was right either.

He was just saying if their gaugue was just measuring the water level, it could be tricked by subsiding land.


Sea level rise on tide gauges includes the effect of land subsidence, which in the case of Boston, is about 20% - 25% of the total.

Jeff Masters
207. ChillinInTheKeys
7:03 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
interesting note from AccuWeather...

every 10 x 10 square foot of snow equals to 1,300 pounds

stack up 40" (3.3-) that fell in Hamden, CT with 2.5' (Upton, NY) plus 2.1' in Boston plus 3' in Milford, CT plus 2' that fell in New Canaan, CT ..= 10'

this is what you get...

add the area of those downs = 6610 sq miles... times 1,300 lbs per 10x10' to get the weight = over 8.5 million pounds or 4, 295 tons of snow in JUST those cities...

how much the whole snow that fell weighted???


Assuming a cubic foot of snow weighs 10 pounds with 43,560 feet per acre and 640 acres in a mile...

10 x 43,560 x 640 = 278,784,000 pounds per square mile for each foot of snow or 139,392 tons per square mile.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
206. PedleyCA
6:58 PM GMT on February 11, 2013


Fair

55°F

13°C

Humidity24%
Wind SpeedN 10 G 21 MPH
Barometer30.15 in (1020.2 mb)
Dewpoint19°F (-7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 11 Feb 9:53 am PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.

54.9 here... Sitting in the Sun like a Cat would to keep warm. Don't want to turn the heat on. 70.0 inside. Must just be me.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5686
205. schwankmoe
6:55 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
in contrast, the metropolitan area effected by the nor'easter is approximately 30 million people. even ignoring the news bias towards the NE, the number of people effected is pretty huge - 10% of the whole US population was impacted by this storm.

that being said, a destructive tornado like that should still be news.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hattiesburg is not a town. It's a small city, home to 52,000 people. 100,000+ people live in the metro area surrounding the city.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
204. Bluestorm5
6:54 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The good news is that no fatalities occured. I hope those who were injured have a speedy recovery.
Me too. I think NWS offices did a great job issuing warnings and SPC issuing watches. Also, a GREAT decision to issue tornado emergency for West Hattiesburg, Hattiesburg, and Petal.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
203. Tropicsweatherpr
6:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I'm very impressed how NWS Jackson is using Facebook/Twitter to spread around the information to the public. Other NWS offices is starting to do the same, as well as my local office, NWS Raleigh. NWS Raleigh were doing Questions/Answers thing today and responding to people's questions including mine's. I can see a good future relationship between NWS and social media.


The good news is that no fatalities occured. I hope those who were injured have a speedy recovery.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14046
202. VR46L
6:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Please refrain from quoting the whackos....
Make your point without repeating their ignorant drivel.


Here we go with the labelling again ....

Who are you calling a Whacko ?

Just wondering..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6837
201. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Please refrain from quoting the whackos....
Make your point without repeating their ignorant drivel.

who are you talking about?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
TWC plans to name winter storm PLATO soon for the Oklahoma snow which could impact the NYC as a nor'easter
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Please refrain from quoting the whackos....
Make your point without repeating their ignorant drivel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


DANG!!!! I really feel bad for them... extremely devastating storm
Could've been worse. This tornado turned into a monster after leaving Hattiesburg, judging by radar. I'm still waiting to see if there's EF4 damage between Hattiesburg, MS and Millry, AL. This is one serious long tracked tornado.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7906
@MississippiWx, glad you're okay! I didn't realize you lived there. I find though that more often than not, you find that everything is always reported and blogged in relation to the Northeast. Blessings to your neighborhood for a speedy recovery. Bricks and stone can be replaced, but thankfully at this time no one has lost their lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed

Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
Jeremiah?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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