Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

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The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

Digging Out (steelrail)
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Digging Out
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Cornish, ME (Mottoole)
Cornish, ME

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NWS Raleigh,NC extended discission for the weekend:
...MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NC AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUMMET WELL BELOW 1300M WITH THE SECOND TROUGH ON SATURDAY....SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH IN THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

More snow would be nice here!
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In reference to my last post...

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ok central florida..thursday is our rain day..hopefully
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The tornado that struck Hattiesburg, Mississippi yesterday afternoon, as you are probably are, was rated an EF3 with 145 mph winds as of many hours ago. Some of the damage pictures coming out of the region support a higher intensity and perhaps even rating.
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looks like a chance of rain by me on the coast wens...
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Quoting Levi32:
From the Dr's post:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"

I would be interested to see where that conclusion was drawn from, Dr. Masters. I know you usually cite your claims, but you did not do so here, and it's a rather big claim. The statistical analysis going into it would be a good read, I think.



if one quotes the entire sentence:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms."

...it is easy to understand the point that it would not be a surprise to see significant changes (either more or less frequent or intense)

...since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms.

The only way we will know what the changes are, is when we have a significant sample size, given these changing climatic conditions.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
290. VR46L
Quoting TheGreatHodag:
When does the Euro model come out? (looking for information on the midweek storm and the weekend).


It was out a couple of Hrs ago

Euro weather online
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Quoting pcola57:
This is Washington Co. Alabama..
Millry is highlighted in red..




This is Clarke Co.,Alabama..
Jackson is highlighted in red..
ok TY..clark county was the only tornado damage report i could find in that state
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When does the Euro model come out? (looking for information on the midweek storm and the weekend).
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Quoting VR46L:



Sandy Did !!

Not sure on the Noreaster . But Sandy was a wave that traveled across the ocean .


Nope. Sandy originated in the Caribbean.
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284. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GINO (08-20122013)
22:00 PM RET February 11 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gino (990 hPa) located at 14.1S 80.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northeast quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.0S 79.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.7S 79.0E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.9S 79.5E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.2S 81.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Gino continues to intensify with a curved band pattern on 0.6 to 0.7 wrap and tops of cloud that have cooled. 1543z ASCAT pass confirms current intensity at 40 knots and has allowed to calibrate winds radius. Maximum winds seem to be far away from the center.

Gino is moving south westward on the northwestern edge of the low to mid level ridge. From Thursday, system should begin to recurve southward then south southeastward under the combined effect of the ridge existing in the east and a mid-level through arriving in the southwest.

On this forecast track, conditions are favorable for intensification with a vertical wind shear that becomes weak under the upper level ridge axis. On Wednesday, the building of a strong polar outflow might allow the system to reach its maximum intensity that should be close to the intense tropical stage.

On and after tuesday, beyond 20.0s, sea surface temperatures begin to decrease as a westerly to northwesterly wind-shear should rapidly strengthen. So it is expected that system will quickly weaken by decelerating on a southeastward then eastward track on the northern edge of a rebuilding low level ridge.
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Does anyone have a track of the EF-3 Hattisburg Tornado to see how many miles it was alive?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
wow look at all this rain.................
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MS Wx, glad to see you're able to post, and physically okay... understand your frustration and range of emotions after such a hit, best wishes to ya bro... I'm still waiting to hear how my relatives near/around the Hattiesburg metro fared. Lucky no deaths yet associated with it.

Wasn't blogging but was surely eyeing those developing cells yesterday on radar, my level of concern for Hattiesburg rose about the time 2 particular cells formed / exited LA into MS on that trajectory...
Take care.
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gulf coast folks..storms turning severe..stay safe over there...............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
220 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

LAC091-105-117-MSC005-113-147-112100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130211T2100Z/
AMITE MS-WALTHALL MS-ST. HELENA LA-PIKE MS-WASHINGTON LA-
TANGIPAHOA LA-
220 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST
FOR SOUTHERN PIKE...SOUTHERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN AMITE
COUNTIES...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN ST. HELENA PARISHES...

AT 218 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF GILLSBERG...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OSYKA...MCCOMB AIRPORT...MAGNOLIA...MOUNT HERMAN...TYLERTOWN AND
DEXTER
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Quoting LargoFl:
is this close to millry ala?...........CLARKE COUNTY, Ala. (WALA) - A possible twister tore through parts of Clarke County last night leveling at least one mobile home and damaging several other homes.

The Clarke County Sheriffs Office reports six to eight homes have damage; no injuries have been reported.

We're told most of the damage to property occurred on Old Lock road off Highway 69 north of Jackson.

FOX10 News Meteorologist Matt Barrentine will be in Clarke County assessing the damage and he'll have the aftermath tonight on FOX10 News at 5 p.m.


This is the next County to the West of the County that Millry, Al is in (Washington).
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5691
274. - Hence increasing my confusion about the entire paragraph. I'm not sure what he's trying to say. He says the models don't predict an increase, but he seems to say in his topic sentence that they are presently increasing. I'm seeking clarity.
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Quoting VR46L:



Sandy Did !!

Not sure on the Noreaster . But Sandy was a wave that traveled across the ocean .


He said Sandy and the nor'easter came from the same place.
Sandy came from Africa.

I remember those nor'easter rainy days clearly, so it must be Africa i'm in
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Hattiesburg rated EF3 with winds having topped out at 145mph.
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274. bwi
I thought Dr. Masters said the climate change models do NOT predict an increase in the number of east coast US Nor'easters? His post is about surge damage, which will rise as sea levels rise.

I wouldn't be surprised to see higher precip with the NE'ers, though, based on heat contrast and moisture increases. Higher risk of heavier precip when they do occur. More snowmaggedons with 2 feet seems like a good bet.

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming. "
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is this close to millry ala?...........CLARKE COUNTY, Ala. (WALA) - A possible twister tore through parts of Clarke County last night leveling at least one mobile home and damaging several other homes.

The Clarke County Sheriffs Office reports six to eight homes have damage; no injuries have been reported.

We're told most of the damage to property occurred on Old Lock road off Highway 69 north of Jackson.

FOX10 News Meteorologist Matt Barrentine will be in Clarke County assessing the damage and he'll have the aftermath tonight on FOX10 News at 5 p.m.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Still no word from Millry?


I'll assume it did hit some farms there, but nothing to make an extensive report about, just typical track damage.

Same thing happened when the GA tornado moved up to Calhoun, destroyed lots of houses, but everybody was focused on the (less substantial) damage in Adairsville.
Meanwhile up north the tornado was up to 3 times as wide and far more destructive.

It's a matter of where the attention is.
I do not think that the town was "wiped away" or anything like that.
But who knows it may not have been on the ground anyway.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Those in the East enjoy this next week and a half of active winter weather. MJO forcing will be trying to bring back warmer and milder weather in two weeks time. Long range ensemble means are also beginning to hint at a return to ridging in the area.


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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not officially. We'll have to wait for storm surveys, but I'm assuming no news is good news.

Yeah. I'm hoping they're just without power.
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for the DC area..............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

A DEVELOPING LOW MAY IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ALSO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Still no word from Millry?
Not officially. We'll have to wait for storm surveys, but I'm assuming no news is good news.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
Quoting Ameister12:
Still no word from Millry?
alot of power outages in miss/alabama
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266. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So according to Bill Nye both sandy and the noreaster came from Africa/Georgia....not a coincidence.

I live in Africa?
wow!
Safari time!



Sandy Did !!

Not sure on the Noreaster . But Sandy was a wave that traveled across the ocean .
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Quoting LargoFl:
Mississippi tornado injures 63, damages homes, buildings

State of emergency declared after tornado rips through state


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/central-mississippi/jacks on/Mississippi-tornado-injures-63-damages-homes-bu ildings/-/9156912/18490316/-/1jdtw1z/-/index.html# ixzz2KciEyZKi
Injuries had been increased to 82, with many more going unreported.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
Still no word from Millry?
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I hear ya Levi. I'm hoping Masters will answer your questions regarding climate change triggering frequency and intensity of Nor'easters. Any prognostication on another 15+ named storms happening in the Atlantic and Gulf basins again this year?
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Quoting LargoFl:
Mississippi tornado injures 63, damages homes, buildings

State of emergency declared after tornado rips through state


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/central-mississippi/jacks on/Mississippi-tornado-injures-63-damages-homes-bu ildings/-/9156912/18490316/-/1jdtw1z/-/index.html# ixzz2KciEyZKi


Thank God no deaths!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7303
So according to Bill Nye both sandy and the noreaster came from Africa/Georgia....not a coincidence.

I live in Africa?
wow!
Safari time!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Mississippi tornado injures 63, damages homes, buildings

State of emergency declared after tornado rips through state


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/central-mississippi/jacks on/Mississippi-tornado-injures-63-damages-homes-bu ildings/-/9156912/18490316/-/1jdtw1z/-/index.html# ixzz2KciEyZKi
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Quoting LargoFl:
just what they need up there huh..5 or more inches of new snow..although..all this snow will really help the water supplies when it melts and fills the lakes etc


I know... they call for 6" at my place now (add 21 from Nemo plus 6" or more from this upcoming one)... And the weekend snowstorm or BLIZZARD!...

Quoting TheGreatHodag:


I have a hard time believing that it will be all snow for long enough to reach 5 inches of snow in DC.


Well the 5" go for the immediate area... if you see the white-bluish color calls from 3-6"..so Washington DC could get 3" or more possibly.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Here's the likely culprit responsible for both the tornadoes and the nor'easter. It's a loop of the polar jet stream, and it's a major factor inducing atmospheric instability and depressions. You can see how it would have dragged a warm, moisture laden depression from the Gulf up into New England.

It could be parked near the Gulf coast for some time. Gulf waters are unusually warm at the moment, so plenty of moisture, and since the air in the jet originates from the Arctic, it's cold and induces strong convection and rotation.

Not a pleasant set up for those living in tornado regions.

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
257. etxwx
As posted earlier in the
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...CNTRL/SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...

A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF MID-MORNING
FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD ACROSS SRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT... LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO
CNTRL/SERN TX VORTICITY MAXIMUM. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST...LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /NAMELY OVER TX/ WHICH WHERE YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL


We just has another round of hail here...much more than this morning. Pea size and smaller...brief, intense and accompanied by a quick shower and *poof* it's gone. Weird weather today.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.



While some people over-dramatize severe weather damage, others seem to almost downplay the power of severe weather as well, yet they always have to be reminded that strong tornadoes have destroyed structures that are supposed to withstand winds over 200 mph.

An EF3 isn't just strong enough to cause damage to homes, its strong enough to completely destroy or at least damage heavily enough to leave the structures useless. I would say an EF3 is strong enough to be begin destroying normally built homes and doing substantial damage to reinforced structures.

The only way to avoid severe damage from higher end tornadoes is to either live underground like dwarfs in Lord of the Rings, or build concrete dome structures with ballistics windows. But by then you might as well be living in a city built for nuclear war and terror as well.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7303
Quoting Tribucanes:
Levi, we've had three large Nor'easter storms from 2005-2013, which would lend some credence to what Dr. Masters was saying about increased chances of them. Perhaps the same could be said for the increased chances of hurricanes affecting the NE too. With two monster canes in as many years in the NE, one begins to question whether it's coincidence or climate change driven. I personally wonder if NYC has more than a 5/10 year window before a major hits there.


Regarding nor'easters, I would like to see a statistical analysis. Nor'easters happen nearly every winter, and I'm not convinced immediately by hearing that we've had three large storms in eight years.

Regarding hurricanes, it's amazing to me that people are surprised by what has happened in the last couple of years, given that, if anything, the east coast has been "overdue" given the type of pattern we have been in since the 2000s.

In the 1950s, look what happened to the east coast. These are all major hurricanes that affected the east coast during the period 1951-1960. I'm pretty sure that if we were living in 1960, we would be freaking out over that trend. What has happened in recent years pails in comparison to the 1950s so far.


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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
____________________________

Forecast from Tomorrow through Wednesday



click image for larger view


I have a hard time believing that it will be all snow for long enough to reach 5 inches of snow in DC.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
New NYC snowfall forecast for the Wed night/ Thu AM storm
just released
just what they need up there huh..5 or more inches of new snow..although..all this snow will really help the water supplies when it melts and fills the lakes etc
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Glad your okay MississippiWx. Were you in the tornado?
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New NYC snowfall forecast for the Wed night/ Thu AM storm
just released
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.


take pictures
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.
Where exactly are you in Hattiesburg? I haven't seen a photo of EF4 damage, yet. Again, I hope you're okay and that your home is not damaged (assuming not since you're on blog).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
Levi, we've had three large Nor'easter storms from 2005-2013, which would lend some credence to what Dr. Masters was saying about increased chances of them. Perhaps the same could be said for the increased chances of hurricanes affecting the NE too. With two monster canes in as many years in the NE, one begins to question whether it's coincidence or climate change driven. I personally wonder if NYC has more than a 5/10 year window before a major hits there.
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33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed
aspectre: Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
196 bluheelrtx: Jeremiah?

I wouldn't want this taken the wrong way... was a good friend of mine.
But I never understood a single word he said after sippin' on his bottle of wine.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Serious damage to a building on campus of Southern Miss.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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