Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

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The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

Digging Out (steelrail)
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Digging Out
()
Cornish, ME (Mottoole)
Cornish, ME

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stormchaser19: It's clearly everything start with the The Industrial Revolution!!!!!!!! The global warming is humans' fault
355 WPBHurricane05: Correlation doesn't imply causation.

But if the dice keep coming up snake-eyes, it'd be reckless to assume that they hadn't been loaded.
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Quoting Catherdr:
Long Island NY Mall evacuated due to possibility of roof collapse from snow.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/02/11/smith-have n-mall-evacuated-due-to-significant-leaks/
i had leaks on my roof this morning today in south end stair case and the south end midway down the floor

went to the roof and cleared the two roof drains of snow and made a few paths for water to flow most of the snow melted by late afternoon and the leaks had stop and water had drain away

as a matter of fact the snow took a good cut from the brief warmup and rain today
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Long Island NY Mall evacuated due to possibility of roof collapse from snow.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/02/11/smith-have n-mall-evacuated-due-to-significant-leaks/
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Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!
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Well I just heard the Hattiesburg Tornado has gotten a preliminary rating of EF4. Not surprising since the thing was an absolute beast!
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Quoting WunderGirl12:
Good Afternoon! :-)

Check out my webpage! www.booksie.com/Amaria_Capstone
I have posted some of my writings there, so check them out!

WunderGirl12



Congrats on the new books you published..
Well done.. :)
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I just like to be skeptical of any information that is given to me (outside of scientific fact). I understand how CO2 and greenhouse gasses work, I just question how much of an impact humans contribute to global warming.


Skepticism is good.

The scientific facts are:

- CO2 is (as yet) the most significant *unbuffered* GHG

- atmospheric CO2 is increasing sympathetically with increasing atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, and the increased retained heat is consistent with CO2's IR absorption.

- changes in the isotopic signature of atmospheric CO2 indicate a fossil biological provenance.

- the magnitude of the atmospheric CO2 increase is consistent with known consumption of fossil fuels.

Given these facts, what is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed global temperature increase?
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Link

live cams ISS above earth
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.

I was the first one to think about you yesterday. Glad you're okay. ;)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
perfectly normal occurence 13 don't worry about a thing

I wouldn't say an EF4 tornado in February, in Mississippi of all places, is normal. It's highly unusual in fact.

Quoting ncstorm:
Salivating over here..138 hours..we will see..


This looks like our best shot yet.
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Salivating over here..138 hours..we will see..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15670
132 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15670
With yesterday's Hattiesburg tornado being upgraded, it's now only the sixth ever F4 or stronger tornado on record in that state for the month of February, and the only one to have taken place there in the first half of the month. (In fact, of the state's 22 February F3s, only five have occurred prior to the middle of the month.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.


No one was killed? What a maricle. :D

*Pardon the spelling, on moblie*
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***
perfectly normal occurence 13 don't worry about a thing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.


wonder if you will get apologies..

glad you made it out okay..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15670
Quoting no1der:
The IR absorption spectrum of CO2 is basic 19th century physics. Do you mean to suggest that atmospheric CO2 can increase without causing increased heat retention?




I just like to be skeptical of any information that is given to me (outside of scientific fact). I understand how CO2 and greenhouse gasses work, I just question how much of an impact humans contribute to global warming.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Meteorologist Tim Buckley
No need to go crazy, BUT -- the weather pattern for this weekend is one that CAN produce some snowflakes in the Cape Fear region. A few of our computer models are trying to hint at a possible coastal low that could throw some amount of snow our way overnight Saturday into Sunday. It's worth noting that some of our reliable computer models are NOT forecasting this, but the idea is there - and stranger things have happened.

Bottom line -- keep it in the back of your mind that things COULD turn a little wintry as cold air plunges south again this weekend. I'll keep you updated throughout the week on if the snow chances actually materialize or not.

Keep calm, and carry on. :)



LOL. We dont want anyone having a freak attack on southern snow. Well at least not yet.
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twisterdata..snow map at 126 hours and currently running

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15670
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.
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377. MTWX
Info update on the Hattiesburg tornadoes...

Link

Amazes me that there were no fatalities thus far!!!
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The latest GFS still has this unusual kink in the jet.
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Quoting Doppler22:

I had a feeling it would be


Hi Doppler! :-) I hope everyone tried to stay safe during the tornado.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Correlation doesn't imply causation.


Really?? Correlation?? Its like i'm to take a exam and i not prepare for him, result was a fail the exam......And the real reason of this, was because the exam was difficult? or the truth was that i didnt study
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


It will shift, no way that will happen. Maybe a flurry or two, those seem to be more common in frequency over the years.


Its been a few years since i have seen any snow. I will welcome it even if its just for a few minutes.
On another note lots of rain in the south right now. My prayers our with the injured in the tornadoes. Hope for a fast recovery.
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Quoting JNCali:
Best of luck WG12! Writing is a curious blend of talent, perseverance and other stuff.... You failed to mention your fixation with meteorology in your profile section?!
whats up with that?? :)


fixation...lol. :-) I will have to fix that. :D
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Late Sat. night, early Sun. morning. Could be an interesting weekend!


AWESOME!!!!! :D I am SO totally ready for some possible snow! :-)
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***

I had a feeling it would be
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meteorologist Tim Buckley
No need to go crazy, BUT -- the weather pattern for this weekend is one that CAN produce some snowflakes in the Cape Fear region. A few of our computer models are trying to hint at a possible coastal low that could throw some amount of snow our way overnight Saturday into Sunday. It's worth noting that some of our reliable computer models are NOT forecasting this, but the idea is there - and stranger things have happened.

Bottom line -- keep it in the back of your mind that things COULD turn a little wintry as cold air plunges south again this weekend. I'll keep you updated throughout the week on if the snow chances actually materialize or not.

Keep calm, and carry on. :)

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15670
The IR absorption spectrum of CO2 is basic 19th century physics. Do you mean to suggest that atmospheric CO2 can increase without causing increased heat retention?


Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Correlation doesn't imply causation.
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***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z GFS has snow down into C. Fla. WOW!


It will shift, no way that will happen. Maybe a flurry or two, those seem to be more common in frequency over the years.
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Brad Panovich‏@wxbrad

Hattiesburg, MS tornado just upgraded to EF-4 with winds of 170 mph via NWS Jackson, MS.
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Really? When?????? O___O

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Cold air & weak disturbance behind this monster storm could bring enough moisture to drop snow into Florida panhandle Link
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Really? When?????? O___O



Late Sat. night, early Sun. morning. Could be an interesting weekend!
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Quoting WunderGirl12:
Good Afternoon! :-)

Check out my webpage! www.booksie.com/Amaria_Capstone
I have posted some of my writings there, so check them out!

WunderGirl12

Best of luck WG12! Writing is a curious blend of talent, perseverance and other stuff.... You failed to mention your fixation with meteorology in your profile section?!
whats up with that?? :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)


I am certain that Levi made a mistake. The Kariakkum Reservoir is at Latitude= 40.2759N, Longitude= 69.815E. - Kairakkum Reservoir

Levi made a simple mistake, unlike my big mistakes.

House = pink
Barn = red

When I mix these up, it is a BIG mistake!
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255 Levi32: Regarding hurricanes, it's amazing to me that people are surprised by what has happened in the last couple of years, given that, if anything, the east coast has been "overdue" given the type of pattern we have been in since the 2000s.
In the 1950s, look what happened to the east coast. These are all major hurricanes that affected the east coast during the period 1951-1960. I'm pretty sure that if we were living in 1960, we would be freaking out over that trend. What has happened in recent years pails in comparison to the 1950s so far.


'Plus'ed your comment for bringing up the point, but I find myself less sanguine about the comparison.
Dr.Emanuel predicted that warmer ocean temperatures would produce more strong hurricanes and stronger hurricanes.
Dr.Grey countered that stronger wind shear would overcome the effect of warmer oceans -- kill some TropicalCyclones-that-woulda-become-hurricanes, and weaken or kill some actual hurricanes -- leading to fewer and weaker hurricanes.

Ike, Gustav, Isaac, and Sandy immediately come to mind as examples of a third alternative:
Whatever doesn't kill you, makes you stranger. (aka GlobalWarming is GlobalWeirding.)
None being examples of major hurricanes at or near CONUS-landfall as defined by the Saffir-SimpsonHurricaneWindScale. All nonetheless maintained MinimumPressures equivalent to major hurricanes one or two categories up the Saffir-SimpsonScale.

Apparently (so far) if windshear prevents a strong hurricane (as defined by central pressure) from stacking vertically (which would produce faster MaximumWinds, and higher Cat.numbers), it instead "stacks" horizontally (producing a FAR broader windfield, and FAR higher storm surges).

So I find myself wondering whether those '50s major hurricanes had IntegratedKineticEnergy numbers comparable to the post-2000 "minor" hurricanes I gave as example.
Seems to me that the present-decade "minor"s caused more damage than those past-decade majors, even after taking inflation and coastal population into account.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z GFS has snow down into C. Fla. WOW!


Really? When?????? O___O

Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting Neapolitan:
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)


My plot region was correct. The automatic plot label called it "-75--65E" if you look closely, meaning -75E to -65E.

As far as I can tell, the plots from your page are for one coordinate, whereas mine are an area average over a region, which could explain the difference.
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Good Afternoon! :-)

Check out my webpage! www.booksie.com/Amaria_Capstone
I have posted some of my writings there, so check them out!

WunderGirl12

Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
18Z GFS has snow down into C. Fla. WOW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
It's clearly everything start with the The Industrial Revolution!!!!!!!!the global warming is humans fault







Correlation doesn't imply causation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

949 mb w/GFS 18z latest incarnation of major Nor'easter -- but track remains well offshore. +7 days Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we got a high of 44.5 at noon now its

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EST Monday 11 February 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.6 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 35.6F
Dewpoint: 28.6F
Humidity: 75 %
Wind: WSW 22 gust 30 mph


It is 59.2 at my place...

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 36 min 20 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
59 F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 27%
Dew Point: 25 F
Wind: 9 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph
Pressure: 30.07 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

This PWS is a mile East of me and has been reporting nicely as of late.
Never know when these things will be working for long periods of time. This area has very few of them. There are only 2 within the City limits and both are right near this location.
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Lake effect flurries this evening, tonight and Tuesday morning.

==discussion==
A cold westerly flow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this evening
will create conditions favourable for the development of lake effect
flurries. Local snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm are possible under
heavier snow bands. Travel conditions could be hazardous with snow
covered roads and visibilities less than 400 metres in some spots for
a brief period of time.

The special weather statement for Grey - Bruce and Parry Sound -
Muskoka regions had been upgraded to a snow squall watch..

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting Levi32:
322.

There's nothing conclusive about the long-term trend of SSTs off the eastern seaboard.

These are the SSTs from ERSSTv3 for the region 30-45N, 75-65W.

Data Source
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
we got a high of 44.5 at noon now its

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EST Monday 11 February 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.6 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 35.6°F
Dewpoint: 28.6°F
Humidity: 75 %
Wind: WSW 22 gust 30 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting PedleyCA:
Nice and toasty up there Keep....
it was cooling off now and the rain showers are turning to snow showers and all this standing water will refreeze tonight
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Nice and toasty up there Keep....
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evening all work day is done
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting Levi32:
339.

I'm pretty sure it's as obvious as a pink barn that a discussion of nor'easters is regional.


LOL! My neighbors offered to repaint my barn for me. ... As long as it wasn't pink .... again.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.