Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013

Share this Blog
37
+

A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

Links:

Our news page
http://www.wunderground.com/news/

Our winter Storm page:
http://www.wunderground.com/winter-storm/nemo-2013.asp

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 639 - 589

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Well guys, I just took that picture with my camera as a test for the upcoming storm... I'll be uploading many pictures throughout the storm, I hope to get thunder snow..if I get to record it I'll upload it too.




I hope I'll be safe
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
the booming is shaking my windows lol..this dont usually happen in winter here, its our dry season



Not really actually, the winter months in Florida often bring powerful squall lines with heavy rain and strong to occasionally a few severe cells.

The Tampa Bay area is well below normal for rainfall and thunderstorms for the winter. Typically, December through March while not a rainy season, is a spike in rainfall between the drier fall and spring months which are the real dry season. Often we can see some pretty powerful thunderstorms.

We have had an unusually inactive winter, as has been the case the last few years now. La Nina and its affects just seems to never go away, even though El Nino was forecast along with above normal rainfall for us this winter several months back, we are practically having a La Nina. In fact the dry warm winter across the southeast and especially Florida screams a strong La Nina, at least locally.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605


Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In other news, drought has lessened in all islands of Hawaii, thanks to the cold front that brought heavy rain on Jan 27-28. However, extreme drought remains on parts of Maui and the Big Island as the front did not bring much-needed rain there than compared to Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Lanai.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
634. beell
Just for giggles, the happy NAM forecast sounding for just a single hour-11Z Saturday-Concord, NH.

Using -10°C to -20C as the prime dendritic growth zone, where the crystals are big and clumpy and tend to stick together and really let the snow totals rapidly accumulate.

A sounding with this zone AOA 300mb deep. Pretty decent depth to produce this "type" of snow!

And check the winds just off the surface...


click for full image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to hit the Rack - Stay Safe All - Stay Warm - Sleep Well - Hope you all got your Milk, Bread and the Snow Shovel, you'll need it.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Wind map

The CoC is still on land, but just.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
Residents in the Northeast along the coast please don;t underestimate the storm surge with this #noreaster.


The TWC and NWS were talking about a 3.4 foot storm surge to Boston, if it comes at high tide the surge would come close to breaking the all time record high.

Sandy for Boston came at low-tide so in terms of surge this storm is more dangerous than Sandy. But only for Boston north. The snow should still be the main headline.

Utility companies haven't had fun lately I suppose, hope they are ready.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Better chance of rain tomorrow. It is only suggesting .01 of rain. Doesn't even seem like its worth the effort.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
629. 900MB
NAM for nyc is just off the chain 30-40 inches. Thinking 15-30 might be the range here which is amazing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
why couldnt the NAM be right? for NYC to say to speak. I understand 30+ inch snowstorms had harldy ever happend in that area, but why couldnt this happen this time, maybe before there just wasnt this type of moisture available when temps were cold enough to snow.


The problem is that none of the other models are seeing this; unless this is a Debby-like performance where only one model gets it right, I don't expect the NAM to be correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
Residents in the Northeast along the coast please don;t underestimate the storm surge with this #noreaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850
Latest NAM forecast model depiction of excessive amounts of snowfall from Boston southwest to NYC and into New Jersey

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
why couldnt the NAM be right? for NYC to say to speak. I understand 30+ inch snowstorms had harldy ever happend in that area, but why couldnt this happen this time, maybe before there just wasnt this type of moisture available when temps were cold enough to snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's as if something is about to go down...

I FOUND NEMO





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:


It is supposed to start here around 10PM according to NWS. Will see if that is true. We are supposed to get something out of this and it will Cold Friday night. Need the rain here. The Drought Monitor came out and we are yellow, so not good. Hows your rainfall totals for the year?


So far, it's been really dry up here, but I'm not sure what the totals have been. And the snowpack is doing ok, so far as I know, so hopefully that'll keep us from having another super rough year. There have been storms, they just haven't hit the central valley so much, at least this far down. We've had more freezes than usual, though.

That one big storm came through, poured here, and then it's basically been dry and often really cold for here ever since. Weird winter. That big high pressure thing that just sat over us for days was so dry I thought my skin might peel off. :P

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


Good evening TA, you see the final count for tornadoes for Middle TN from that severe weather outbreak?

55.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278


@Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
Lots of above avg SST off the east coast for the #noreaster to feed on. Bombs away!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


Well, you left, then quick succesion, bam, bam, bam. jesse, blue, Issac (err I mean isaac)


well it's not my fault...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I left BEFORE everyone left Astro


Well, you left, then quick succesion, bam, bam, bam. jesse, blue, Issac (err I mean isaac)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


@RyanMaue Ryan Maue
NAM 12km at 00z has QPF of nearly 5'' liquid in NJ ... NYC if turns to snow would be buried. Fri temps look ~35%uFFFDF max




@RyanMaue Ryan Maue
NAM 4-km going for 1-2 feet here, there & everywhere in New England.


Nice to have you back Aussie

that says near 30 inches for all NYC area...honestly NEVER seen something like this ever since my first day of tracking weather in 2006. I live just north of NYC and also in southwest CT

I know NAM is crazy btw
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Sacramento had some very pretty, dramatic clouds this afternoon, but nothing much in terms of rain. I was hoping for some thunder, at least, but meh. All the good stuff goes to Chico.


It is supposed to start here around 10PM according to NWS. Will see if that is true. We are supposed to get something out of this and it will Cold Friday night. Need the rain here. The Drought Monitor came out and we are yellow, so not good. Hows your rainfall totals for the year?
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:br


Good evening TA, you see the final count for tornadoes for Middle TN from that severe weather outbreak?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


why stick around when everyone abandons you?


I left BEFORE everyone left Astro
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you left too


why stick around when everyone abandons you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think i have to buy a yardstick...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873


@RyanMaue Ryan Maue
NAM 12km at 00z has QPF of nearly 5'' liquid in NJ ... NYC if turns to snow would be buried. Fri temps look ~35°F max




@RyanMaue Ryan Maue
NAM 4-km going for 1-2 feet here, there & everywhere in New England.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
607. whitewabit (Mod)
Rain has moved off to the east ..

Current conditions :

Peoria, Illinois (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 14 sec ago
Overcast
35 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 26 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 33 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 21 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31581
Quoting wxgeek723:


That's what I keep saying! The models are showing some kind of eye-like feature on this thing!



OMG, It's a Black Hole ........... DOOM
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting Astrometeor:
We had 5 or 6 on chat, all of a sudden everyone says bye and leaves me alone.

Me: WHY FOR THOU LEAVEST ME????

I don't even like Shakespeare.


you left too
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting PedleyCA:

Should be wet here soon.



Sacramento had some very pretty, dramatic clouds this afternoon, but nothing much in terms of rain. I was hoping for some thunder, at least, but meh. All the good stuff goes to Chico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the most complete discussion I have seen about this storm.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS STORM
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...EXPECT THAT ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL
CLOSER TO 6 AM.

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING
ALONG AN ARC FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR THE WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SLOWLY THICKEN
AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/...

* A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL POSE THREATS
TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY.

* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...AND E/SE MA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 60 MPH.

* STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP
10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO
AROUND 5 FEET.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE
INTO SATURDAY.

*/MODEL CONSENSUS...

DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WILL LEAN WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERING NOT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO THE H85-7 LOW WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES /WARM...COLD...DRY/. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID-LVL LOW WHEREAS THE NAM IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.

*/SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...PHASING ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINES OF NEW ENGLAND
AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS USURPED INTO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO AN EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM DRAWS DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH PER STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE/ LOW-LVL FLOW. THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN AND ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE
STORM TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...BUT FEEL THE
DETAILS BELOW CONVEY OUR BEST THINKING.

*/PRECIPITATION...

PRIOR TO THE PHASING AND BOMBING OF THE SURFACE LOW /DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY/...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
INCREASING IN INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S/SE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

AS THE LOW BOMBS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...ANTICIPATING THE
LOW-MID LVL THERMAL FIELDS TO COLLAPSE...TIGHTENING WITH RESPECT TO
THE SURFACE LOW. N/NE FLOW SHOULD DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE.

ANTICIPATING ANY AND ALL WET MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARDS THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAPE AND NANTUCKET...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOUTH
RESULTING IN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE COAST BECOMING
FLUFFIER.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY...
BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLY
TAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

*/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

SW-NE SNOW-BANDING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND PIVOTING WITH THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE MID-LVL LOW COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
TROWALING OF THETAE...MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER
ENHANCED ASCENT.

IT IS WITHIN THESE REGIONS THAT 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE. BANDS MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH...AND WITH
THE DYNAMICLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WE MAY SEE THUNDER-SNOW. BUT THE KEY IS THE LOCATION OF THE H85-7
LOW AS THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH AND THE ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL
DETERMINE WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWS. THERE REMAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY AS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS VARY TO SLIGHT DEGREES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE H85-7 LOW.

ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVL
BAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITH
THE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/. NO SURPRISE...AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING OVER THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONG AND ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL SET MY SIGHTS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THIS VICINITY.

A MORE MID-LVL BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE.

A MAJORITY OF THE BANDING WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
ANTICIPATING A LULL IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED BANDING SIGNATURES. LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN CAPE AND TOWARDS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE INITIAL
MIXING WITH RAIN.

HAVE GONE WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CT/RI AND E/SE MA EXCLUDING
NANTUCKET. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL
SET THE TIMING FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

*/WINDS...

STRONGEST WINDS CENTER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. RULES OF THUMB...HALVING THE H85 FLOW NETS AN
ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...WHILE AN
EVALUATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL NETS AN ESTIMATE OF
AROUND 60 MPH.

CONSIDERING LOCAL CASE STUDIES AND CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON PRESSURE
DIFFERENTIALS AND H925/85 WINDS...WE WILL HIT HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF EASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRECIPITATION DRAG
PROCESSES...AND A MOIST-ADIABATIC VERTICAL PROFILE UP TO H925 WHERE
N/NE WINDS MAX UP TO AROUND 90 MPH...AM EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH FOR FAR NW MA...INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTS ACROSS SE
MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF AROUND 80 MPH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BASED ON THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCH-
MARK...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE THE SNOW
FLUFFIER IN NATURE. ANTICIPATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING
IN DRIFTS OF AROUND 5 FEET.

IN AREAS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT...THE GENERAL
PUBLIC SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE INCLUSIVE NOT
REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS E/SE MA INTO RI...THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE INNER WATERS.

*/MARINE IMPACTS...

PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION.

*/COASTAL FLOODING...

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
DISCUSSION.

*/PREPAREDNESS...

PLEASE SEE THE SNOW BRIEFING PAGE ON http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIPS TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY...THEN TURNS THE CORNER AND LIFTS TO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY. PART OF THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EMCWF UPPER
FLOWS THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SMALL DIVERGENCE MIDWEEK.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT... MAJOR STORM DEPARTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING EVENING SNOW ON THE CAPE BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY.
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE...BUT STILL 2MB/HOUR
RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY AT NIGHT AND 1 MB/HOUR LATE. SO SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE STRONG DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DIMINISHING SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MIXING TO
SUPPORT 50 KNOT/60 MPH GUSTS EARLY...BUT THIS ALSO DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD AIR WILL BRING WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO ALMOST EVERYWHERE...AND BELOW -10F OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA. THERE MEANS A POTENTIAL FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SWINGS A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT...SO EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO REACH US
LATE MORNING WITH 25-30 MB/HOUR VALUES AT 850 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS MATCHES WELL THIS THIS...ALL SHOW MEASURABLE PCPN
WEST OF US AT 12Z MONDAY AND OVERSPREADING THIS AREA BY 18Z. OUR
FORECAST FEATURES CHANCE POPS ARRIVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES TOWARD 00Z. DIMINISHING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER. MIXING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS WOULD FAVOR 25 KNOT
GUSTS TUESDAY.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH THIS
PASSAGE WHILE THE GFS GENERATES A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WIND
AND RAIN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS STAGE...WE FEATURE CHANCE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PART OF THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A MAJOR
QUESTION. OUR BLEND OF GUIDANCE YIELDS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF ANY DEVELOPING LOW
THERE IS NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESULTING PRECIP TYPE. AT THIS STAGE
PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE FROM THE FORECAST THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
KIND OF PCPN BUT NOT LOCK INTO ANY PCPN TYPES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW... HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY... MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FRI NGT INTO SAT AM...THEN SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE SAT AFTN ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CIGS AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
LOWER /MVFR/ CIGS ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
MID MORNING.

FRI AFTN...CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR DURING THE AFTN AND LIFR BY
EVENING AS THE SNOW INCREASES. SNOW ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH RAIN AT ACK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
SURFACE VALUES REACHING 25-40 KNOTS BY EVENING...EAST WINDS AT
2000 FEET WILL REACH 60 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY
EVENING...BRINGING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

FRI NIGHT...IFR/LIFR ALL TERMINALS AND VERY STRONG WINDS EASTERN
MA WITH NE WINDS G60KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS AT
2000 FEET AGL WILL GUST 60-80 KNOTS BOS-PVD-CAPE AND ISLANDS.
GUSTS 35-50 KT POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST. SNOWFALL RATES 1-2 IN PER
HOUR ALL TERMINALS.

SAT...IFR/LIFR ALL TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN
PER HOUR IN THE AM FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. G60KT REMAIN POSSIBLE
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR ALONG
WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
ESPECIALLY AROUND BOSTON AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS
40-50 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

MONDAY...VFR EARLY BUT WITH LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY...
VFR WITH WEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA HEADLINES FOR MOST
WATERS FOR MARGINAL 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS. WE BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 12Z WAVE WATCH DEPICTED 35 FT BY SAT
MORNING E OF CAPE COD...AND USUALLY IN WELL MIXED NE OR N FLOW WE
CONSIDER ADDING ANOTHER 20 PERCENT. HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO A LONG FETCH IN THE 25 TO 35 FT
RANGE...WITH PEAK VALUES OF 37 FT E OF CAPE COD. THESE ARE RATHER
EXTREME BUT SUPPORTED BY 70 TO 80 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN ECMWF...GFS
AND NAM MODELS AND A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEAS
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT... DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS. WINDS AT STORM FORCE
EARLY AT NIGHT BUT DIMINISHING TO GALES OR LIGHTER BY SUNRISE.
DIMINISHING SEAS...BUT STILL HAZARDOUS ON THE EASTERN WATERS AND
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD AIR WILL
GENERATE FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WATERS. LINGERING FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY... INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET
TOWARD EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY AND WEST WINDS LATE.

TUESDAY...WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 5 FEET MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SALISBURY MA
SOUTHWARD TO MARTHAS VINEYARD FOR THE FRI EVENING AND SAT
MORNING HIGH TIDE ***

MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE...

TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES PRESENT CONCERN...FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL E...NE
AND N FACING SHORELINES ALONG THE MA COAST FOR BOTH THE FRI
EVENING AND SAT MORNING HIGH TIDES. FOR THE FRI EVENING HIGH
TIDE...ONSHORE WINDS...SURGE AND SEAS WILL BE RAMPING UP. WE THINK
THE SURGE WILL BE GETTING INTO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE AND SEAS A
LITTLE OFFSHORE IN THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH
TIDE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 930 PM AND 10 PM. THIS RESULTS IN A MINOR
TO MODERATE IMPACT.

THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE THE MORE SERIOUS EVENT AS A
CONSEQUENCE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We had 5 or 6 on chat, all of a sudden everyone says bye and leaves me alone.

Me: WHY FOR THOU LEAVEST ME????

I don't even like Shakespeare.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 0z NAM literally put close to 4 feet of snow near NYC, with about 36" for most of MA and RI.


Nam has been exaggerating but snowfalls have been increasing all day long
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
No chance of snow in central DE? Not even a teeny, tiny chance? I feel robbed!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wouldn't be the first time I've seen a Nor'Easter with an eye. I've seen quite a few opened eyes in these things and 3 or 4 times a well defined enclosed "eye" feature.

Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:

The snow isn't coming down that heavy here. It's mostly the persistence of the snow that will lead to totals over one foot. The rate is increasing though.


Ok, now I'm seeing those 1"+ an hour snowfall rates. It's a very wet snow too, so this is going to cause problems weighing on things plus the roads.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If it were August i could mistake that for a hurricane.


That's what I keep saying! The models are showing some kind of eye-like feature on this thing!

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3589
snow starting to show up on the southern low (aka. nor'easter)

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If it were August i could mistake that for a hurricane.
maybe its a new type of cane a snocane
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nam-hires namer
20130208 00 UTC
sim_reflectivity



If it were August i could mistake that for a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nam-hires namer
20130208 00 UTC
sim_reflectivity
final

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 639 - 589

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast