Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013

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A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

Links:

Our news page
http://www.wunderground.com/news/

Our winter Storm page:
http://www.wunderground.com/winter-storm/nemo-2013.asp

Jeff Masters

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Good morning, everyone, evening Aussie.

As today we are celebrating Mardi Gras at school, it's a cajun breakfast on the sideboard: beignets, baked grits, creole eggs, shrimp omelets and pain perdu (french toast) with strawberry butter.
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well guys... Today is prep day. School till 4:30 (AST), Pack my stuff, and go out to moms. Get storm booze, and enjoy the weather. We most likely will have some power loss so here we go !
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Earthquakes Tsunamis ‏@NewEarthquake
7.1 earthquake, 28km SSE of Lata, Solomon Islands. Feb 8 22:12 at epicenter (8m ago, depth 10km)
Evening Aussie!..they have been getting Big ones there all week long, something is happening there huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36852
well it looks like the Nam model was right on the money if this happens..all along it said More than 2 feet of snow, more like 3-4 feet of snow in places..we'll see when its all over but they may be right saying this will be Historic
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36852
Earthquakes Tsunamis ‏@NewEarthquake
7.1 earthquake, 28km SSE of Lata, Solomon Islands. Feb 8 22:12 at epicenter (8m ago, depth 10km)
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More than 2 feet for eastern CONN..........A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP UP TO 3 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-081745-
/O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
439 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES...
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS MORNING...BECOMING
HEAVY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED BY THIS
EVENINGS COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES ALONG WITH
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36852
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36852
Good Morning, folks and good evening, Aussie,

We have a light dusting here in central VA but enough to get schools closed for the day. Only 38 on the back porch so our dusting should be gone as soon as the day arrives. The rest of the county probably got a lot more.

Enjoy the biscuits and sausage with the CDM coffee and chicory, imported from New Orleans via Baton Rouge.
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Good Morning folks!..the blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..have a great day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36852
Hi guys...
ALMOST A WHITE MAP FOR MASS...OVER 24" ALMOST EVERYWHERE
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
NWSBostonNWS Boston 1 m


Please stay safe today and tomorrow, the potentially historic storm starts! Here's our latest thinking. #blizzard Link
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Quoting Luisport:
sorry but what is CONUS?

Continental USA
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911 Operator‏@911BUFF

ALERT! KEEP CELL PHONES & OTHER BATTERY POWERED DEVICES AS FULLY CHARGED AS POSSIBLE IN PREPARATION OF BLIZZARD #NEMO. #911BUFF

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Quoting indianrivguy:
\\

Continental United States
ok thank's!
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Quoting Luisport:
sorry but what is CONUS?
\\

CONtinental United States
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Looks to be an interesting day in the NE CONUS.....
sorry but what is CONUS?
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Morning all. Looks to be an interesting day in the NE CONUS.....
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning gang!

Good evening Aussie!

Good Evening from a very muggy Sydney Australia.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Doug!





Mornin' Back!
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Quoting yonzabam:


It's a Frankensnow snowpocalypse


ahhh, I love the smell of road salt in the morning...
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Quoting sigdigit:
Am I the only one who finds this new phenomenon of naming winter storms annoying? Talk about sensationalizing. Next thing you know we'll be joining in with Accuweather's hype. Is this considered a Snowicane? Or Snowmaggedon?


It's a Frankenstorm snowpocalypse
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Mornin' Doug!

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It's storms such as this that make meteorololgy so fascinating.
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Wind Map the CoC is still barely onshore near Hatteras. Tight center too. You can see CoC of the Great Lakes storm is somewhere over Lake Erie. Interesting to see the two systems winds interacting along a boundary.

Sure wish I could figure out how to save these loops. Be nice to have an archive.

Not too muggy here....
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.
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Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Still 40+" from this model. Wow! RT @Wright_Weather: @JimCantore 06Z NAM 4km Nest Snowfall totals.
Link
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IRG... I will be in your area tomorrow. My monthly trip to "Once Upon a Child" on the corner of US#1 and Jensen Beach Blvd, near Hobby Lobby. Then a quick lunch at Conchy Joes, maybe
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Good morning everyone, I already have several inches of snow on the ground and I still have the backside to come through. School is closed for me today!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Good muggy morning here in south Florida
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Morning gang!

Good evening Aussie!
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Quoting sigdigit:
Am I the only one who finds this new phenomenon of naming winter storms annoying? Talk about sensationalizing. Next thing you know we'll be joining in with Accuweather's hype. Is this considered a Snowicane? Or Snowmaggedon?

Oh please don't start this again. We know it's all a marketing plan as said by Brian Norcross on weatherbrains in November 2012. TWC has now got what they wanted, a fully blow snowcane.
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708. VR46L
The south East Radar the Storm is shortly going to have Cleared it ..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
707. VR46L
Quoting sigdigit:
Am I the only one who finds this new phenomenon of naming winter storms annoying? Talk about sensationalizing. Next thing you know we'll be joining in with Accuweather's hype. Is this considered a Snowicane? Or Snowmaggedon?


Nope your not LOL .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
706. VR46L
NE sector Radar

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
Am I the only one who finds this new phenomenon of naming winter storms annoying? Talk about sensationalizing. Next thing you know we'll be joining in with Accuweather's hype. Is this considered a Snowicane? Or Snowmaggedon?
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704. VR46L
RGB East USA

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

MT @marshallmoss: Reports from Long Island of gas stations out of gas and very long lines at others.

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702. VR46L
Rainbow Image East USA

img src="">
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701. VR46L
moisture...Water vapour



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700. VR46L
@42 hrs


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699. VR46L
@36 hrs

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698. VR46L
@30 hrs

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697. VR46L
@24 hrs Precipitation rate

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696. VR46L
GFS 6Z Keeps Most of the Precipitation out to sea @15hr

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Mount Pleasant, MI has reported 10.5 inches of snow. Just to the south in Alma, MI a total of 7.1 inches of snow has fallen.
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nam-hires namer
20130208 06 UTC
sim_reflectivity
hr 60 final
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20130208 06 UTC
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hr 57
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nam-hires namer
20130208 06 UTC
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hr 54
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06z NAM at 72 hours:

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nam-hires namer
20130208 06 UTC
sim_reflectivity
hr 51
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nam-hires namer
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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