Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013

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A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

Links:

Our news page
http://www.wunderground.com/news/

Our winter Storm page:
http://www.wunderground.com/winter-storm/nemo-2013.asp

Jeff Masters

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839. VR46L
The Merge is not far away...



Rugters IR
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
here in brooklyn it hasn't started sticking yet.

Quoting 900MB:


That's about the worst place to gauge snow in NYC as it is high traffic, and 8 subway lines are directly underneath. I'm 40 blocks north and it is already sticking to the sidewalks. Check for a Central Park can.
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Good morning folks. My mother in law in a suburb of Milwaukee Wisconsin got a total of 7 in of wet sloppy snow yesterday afternoon and evening.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
60cm of Snow, 108kph winds 8m high waves, is this New England? Nope! A storm currently slamming Japan.



wow...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
835. VR46L
Goes 12 ucar.edu Off the east Coast

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
60cm of Snow, 108kph winds 8m high waves, is this New England? Nope! A storm currently slamming Japan.

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The New York City Traffic Rules [Section 4-12(K)] authorize the Commissioner of the Department of Transportation to declare a snow emergency. When the Commissioner declares a state of snow emergency, special traffic regulations take effect. These regulations prohibit standing or parking a vehicle on the City's network of 250 snow emergency streets and routes, and require use of skid chains or snow tires on vehicles using snow emergency streets. Vehicles parked on snow emergency streets must be removed or are subject to ticketing and towing. Use of parking meters on these streets will be prohibited. All arterial streets are snow emergency streets and all limited access expressways and parkways are snow emergency routes. They are identified by red signs with white lettering.

In the event of a snow emergency, information will be disseminated by the news media. If a snow emergency is declared, DOT encourages commuters to use public transportation as much as possible. The Staten Island Ferry and private ferries will maintain service as weather conditions permit. Alternate side parking and street cleaning regulations may be suspended.

In anticipation of a snowstorm, all construction sites are to be surveyed and measures must be taken to ensure that all materials and equipment are secure and made safe to prevent any hazardous conditions to the public including ensuring that construction barrels are made secure. Also, ensure that "lift plow" warning signs are posted for raised plates, manhole covers, and similar structures. Should the City declare a state of emergency, all routine work must cease. The only exception will be for emergency construction activity in accordance with current NYCDOT rules.

For updates and additional information, call the New York City Call Center, 311.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Quoting DrMickey:

Where is this, Keeper? I see it's 401; guessing near Toronto?
east endof city scarbrough
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Blizzard Warning

Essex, NJ

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S BY THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME TREE LIMBS WILL BE DOWNED...
CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
let it begin good luck all
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Where is this, Keeper? I see it's 401; guessing near Toronto?
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826. 900MB
Quoting yonzabam:
Just some light snow falling in Times Square. Looks more like sleet, actually.

Times Square web cam


That's about the worst place to gauge snow in NYC as it is high traffic, and 8 subway lines are directly underneath. I'm 40 blocks north and it is already sticking to the sidewalks. Check for a Central Park can.
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WOW...HEAVILY SNOWING HERE

NOW


10 MINS AGO...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
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Hi TrH. Yeah, I'm in Stamford just off of high ridge road, about 4 miles inland from the Long Island sound. Altitude 160ft. Thanks for the pics. You have no school? Stamford went with early dismissal. Both my "kids" live in Norwalk, just off of exit #2 of the rout 7 connector
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Blizzard Warning now up for NYC.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


You're from there.?. Im in Norwalk, just 10 miles up in l-95 ext 16..

I'm off I-84 exit 8.
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FOX CT Weather‏@WeatherCT

The North Carolina Coast (Typo) NAM model showing 3 feet. GFS, 1 foot. EURO, 12"-18". Looking at current obs. NAM is closest! Get ready
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
817. beell

700mb Frontogenesis


Near Freezing Surface Temps


850mb Temps, Heights, Winds
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Jersey city cam....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
815. 900MB
Big, fat, fluffy flakes here in NYC. Quick coating in first 20 mins. Looks like inch/hour variety. Should be an interesting day as virtually all of 10-15" forecast is fr 5pm on. Get the feeling they may be underestimating first 9 hours of storm, then again we might fight rain/snow line for a while. Or not :-)
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Quoting originalLT:
Started snowing here in Stamford CT. at 7:15am, now at 7:30am it has picked up in intensity, 30.15F Baro. at 30.15"and falling. We DO have school here in Stamford today, but with an early dismissal. Both my wife and daughter are teachers in the school system.


You're from there.?. Im in Norwalk, just 10 miles up in l-95 ext 16..

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ005>012-081730-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$
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Snowing in New York.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A strengthening low northeast of Wilmington, NC... now at 1000 mb... expected to further deepen and bring doom to us here

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Started snowing here in Stamford CT. at 7:15am, now at 7:30am it has picked up in intensity, Baro. at 30.15"and falling. We DO have school here in Stamford today, but with an early dismissal. Both my wife and daughter are teachers in the school system.
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Henry Margusity Fan Club
Here we go. Storm is currently over the the Outerbanks getting ready to bomb out. Snow in NYC already.

the models didnt see snow in the outerbanks..what else didnt they see?.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Heavier snow falling...

in this pic you can actually the snow falling.. click on it for larger size



Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
FOX CT Weather‏@WeatherCT

Light snow in southern CT,with a developing band of snow across inland areas. Storm beginning to take shape along the North Caroina Coast.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
nyc cam-bway and 46 st..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just some light snow falling in Times Square. Looks more like sleet, actually.

Times Square web cam
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There is a big contrast...



the 24'+ go up for Northern CT there but NTC does not have that...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
I've added more breakfast, so anyone please feel free to add to it as it looks like there will be a crowd this morning and I have to leave.

Everyone have a great Friday, Aussie, have a great Saturday.

Everyone in the path of this storm, please be careful and don't take any unnecessary chances with anything. Watch out for your neighbors, especially the elderly and the disabled. In times like these we all need to stick together.
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Quoting victoria780:
Nemo,its all about money.If the public can relate to a name like Hurricanes,then the Weather Channel will increase viewers and revenue.


I'm against the naming system because like you pointed out, it's the Weather Channel and they have gone way too commercial with everything. And I have no intention of personally adopting it. But I unfortunately can see its potential public value.
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FOX 25 News Boston‏@fox25news

Traffic Alert: 24S is completely blocked by 495 (Ex. 14) in Bridgewater. Truck rollover. Expect lengthy setbacks through Raynham.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
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Blizzard conditions were expected in the Boston area westward to the Pioneer Valley as well as in all of Connecticut, including nearby Litchfield County. Travel in much of the region is likely to be virtually impossible, according to AccuWeather.com forecasters, who warn of gale-force winds whipping the snow into deep drifts and creating whiteouts on major highways as well as secondary roads.

At the National Weather Service in Taunton, near Boston, forecaster Benjamin Sipprell described the oncoming storm as "posing threats to life and property." The NWS issued rare, official blizzard warnings for eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, all of Connecticut, and Rhode Island, with storms totals that could jump into the top 10 heaviest snowfalls for Boston, Worcester, Hartford, Providence and other cities. The region could see 2 to 3 feet of snow, with drifts up to 5 feet caused by blowing and drifting.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll put my cappacino machine on the sideboard, if you want one, help yo'self
That sounds great Aussie
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Quoting LargoFl:
ok Im making a second pot of Blog coffee..looks like we are going to need it

I'll put my cappacino machine on the sideboard, if you want one, help yo'self
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
324 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH THE IMPENDING COASTAL STORM...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
ok Im making a second pot of Blog coffee..looks like we are going to need it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.