Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013

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A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

Links:

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http://www.wunderground.com/winter-storm/nemo-2013.asp

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm going to bed everyone. Stay safe in your in the warned areas for this nor'easter.
good night aussie
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
I'm going to bed everyone. Stay safe in your in the warned areas for this nor'easter.
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...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AS WELL AS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS MORNING...BECOMING
MODERATE TO HEAVY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 40 MPH...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Both systems merging now..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It put down like 50" of snow in some areas, including right on top of me:



why do people bother to pay attention to it? since it's so crazy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Loop showing developing rogue center off va/nc coast. This is well nw of GFS, much closer to ecmwf control


That means more of a mix likely along the coastal areas including NYC and maybe even Boston - could cut down on total snowfall. Poconos and Berkshires get bigger dump of snow with a further west path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HRRR is a tad west:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting AussieStorm:


Jeff Piotrowski @Jeff_Piotrowski
Snow has started in Providence RI. moderate snow moving toward Boston.

TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking
First snowflakes now starting to fall in #Hartford, CT

NSSL @NSSL
Add "download mPING app" to your winter storm preparation and PING for our research! http://ow.ly/1S1ntH .


NWS main points on the major winter storm/severe blizzard set to unfold today in the Northeast


broken link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no why?

It put down like 50" of snow in some areas, including right on top of me:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Did anyone else see the 12z NAM, lol?


can u put up the pic again..please?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

CTZ009-NYZ071-073-078>081-176-177-081915-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.A.0002.130209T1100Z-130209T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.W.0001.130208T2300Z-130209T0500Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
608 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG LONG ISLAND SOUND AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...3 TO 5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS
EVENING. 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SATURDAY MORNING.

* WAVE ACTION...3 TO 5 FT WAVES ALONG LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND 5
TO 7 FT ALONG THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.

* BEACH EROSION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE
TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

* TIMING...DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 7
AND 11 PM...AND DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
BASEMENTS DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND WAVE ACTION IS
POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES MAY BE NEEDED. LIVES MAY BE AT
RISK FOR PEOPLE WHO PUT THEMSELVES IN HARM/S WAY. ISOLATED
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY BE OBSERVED...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Did anyone else see the 12z NAM, lol?


no why?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
925. VR46L
North East Radar

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AND AWAY WE GO:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Did anyone else see the 12z NAM, lol?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who here thinks it could gain an eye-like structure?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting LargoFl:
..yeah i bet tomorrow the pics people post are going to be awesome..right now the temps need to fall more, they do say its this evening on where the huge amounts of snow will fall.


Yup. Yale has a ton of underground tunnels and the like connecting dorms with classroom buildings etc, and they have their own power plant for the school.....They have not cancelled classes today and will probably be open for business on Monday.

The same cannot be said for residents in homes in the NE who might be buried under by tomorrow and losing power...........It's a serious situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
920. ARiot
I think everyone in the path should get ready for sure. Food, water, batteries, and dig in the closet for the "good" winter clothes that may have stayed packed up the last few years.

I've only been in a few "significant" snow events, and I define that as 24" in 24 hours. Even then the wind gusts were only in the teens and twentys. Wind in a storm like this is the kicker if you ask me.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Loop showing developing rogue center off va/nc coast. This is well nw of GFS, much closer to ecmwf control
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
right now people are thinking snow..but the bigger picture is..this will be a very strong Nor'easter..think about the summer time when one of these comes up the coast..the damage, the flooding, the power outages etc..folks up there..take this storm very seriously especially if you live anywhere near the coastline..be prepared and stay safe ok.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
917. VR46L
GOES - United States, east

Error didnt work



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...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EST SATURDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... AS WELL
AS AREAS ALONG DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AROUND SATURDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.

* AT SANDY HOOK, NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
619 PM FRIDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 643 AM SATURDAY, WITH A
FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
549 PM FRIDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 6.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 613 AM SATURDAY, WITH A
FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
619 PM FRIDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 6.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 624 AM SATURDAY, WITH
A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 619 PM
FRIDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER
LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT658 AM SATURDAY, WITH A FORECAST
TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


TWC said it began snowing in Providence, north of the state that means it's snowing where you are


Jeff Piotrowski @Jeff_Piotrowski
Snow has started in Providence RI. moderate snow moving toward Boston.

TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking
First snowflakes now starting to fall in #Hartford, CT

NSSL @NSSL
Add "download mPING app" to your winter storm preparation and PING for our research! http://ow.ly/1S1ntH .


NWS main points on the major winter storm/severe blizzard set to unfold today in the Northeast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
The latest GFS run is to be discounted... has a storm from 990 - 990 mlb running up the coast, south of NYC... the storm is already 985 mlb... This is strengthening a bit more then forecast.


what? 985 mb? Im having a hard time catching up.. Last time i saw it was 996 mb.
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912. VR46L
GOES - Norfolk - visible

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Working from home today,so will be reporting from time to time.Basically the whole area is shutting down after noon time.This looks to be an epic event up here,with huge variety of effects depending on where you live.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Just texted my Daughter in New Haven and told her to send me pics in the am when she wakes up to a foot plus of snow tomorrow morning................
..yeah i bet tomorrow the pics people post are going to be awesome..right now the temps need to fall more, they do say its this evening on where the huge amounts of snow will fall.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
TWC: Snowdrifts could be up to 7 FEET high...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Northside of Providence here. Chubby dry flakes started about 10 minutes ago and are quickly covering pavement and lawns.
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The latest GFS run is to be discounted... has a storm from 990 - 990 mlb running up the coast, south of NYC... the storm is already 985 mlb... This is strengthening a bit more then forecast.
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alot of moisture headed northward.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Quoting spud358:
Hi all,
checking in from Warwick, RI.  we are just about in the middle of the state (north to south) and right on west side Narragansett Bay.  Snow started within the last 30 minutes and it's the smallest flakes I've ever seen.  So tiny they hardly even want to fall, just swirl in the wind.  


TWC said it began snowing in Providence, north of the state that means it's snowing where you are
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone else have that feeling this storm might turn out to be a mega snowstorm?..


Just texted my Daughter in New Haven and told her to send me pics in the am when she wakes up to a foot plus of snow tomorrow morning................
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Quoting Tazmanian:
in the mean time we have other big winter storm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD


One storm at a time mate! Chillax.



Breaking News Storm ‏@breakingstorm
Connecticut's Bradley Airport cancels all flights after 1:30 p.m. today due to snow forecasts - @Bradley_Airport
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS New York NY‏@NWSNewYorkNY

The rain/snow mix is trying to push north. JFK has reported some rain mixed with snow last hour. Snow has begun in S CT. #nywx #njwx #ctwx
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone else have that feeling this storm might turn out to be a mega snowstorm?..


absolutely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi all,
checking in from Warwick, RI.  we are just about in the middle of the state (north to south) and right on west side Narragansett Bay.  Snow started within the last 30 minutes and it's the smallest flakes I've ever seen.  So tiny they hardly even want to fall, just swirl in the wind.  
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Luisport:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @accu_henry: Today's blizzard is only a preview of what is to come. February is going to be a stormy month for the East coast.


really...??? We won't be able to handle this kind of storms for the rest of the month.
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anyone else have that feeling this storm might turn out to be a mega snowstorm?..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Coming down at a good clip in Danbury/KDXR.


I was going to ask you if it stated there already...let me tell you that if it is it will be heavy at first just like it was down here at the coast


I just saw your post below btw...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @accu_henry: Today's blizzard is only a preview of what is to come. February is going to be a stormy month for the East coast.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
in the mean time we have other big winter storm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
411 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013


SDZ038-039-050-052-053-057-058-063-081815-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.A.0001.130210T0000Z-130211T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.130210T0000Z-130211T1200Z/
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-BRULE-AU RORA-CHARLES MIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HURON...DE SMET...ARLINGTON...
LAKE PRESTON...GREGORY...BURKE...WESSINGTON SPRINGS...ALPENA...
WOONSOCKET...CHAMBERLAIN...KIMBALL...PLANKINTON.. .WHITE LAKE...
STICKNEY...WAGNER...PLATTE...LAKE ANDES...MARTY
411 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FALLING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY INCREASE.
WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON FROM LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.


for SD
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115076
NAMER SIM radar at 21 hrs.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Coming down at a good clip in Danbury/KDXR.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sure, but i just deleted my e-mail history... I had over 15,000 emails, some date as far back as 2010...

I'll look in my msn account.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Snow should approach Boston within half an hour... BOTH STORMS ARE ABOUT TO MERGE

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Good Morning. Nice to see all our folks from the NE reporting in today. Keep em coming and stay safe (and indoors) later today as conditions ramp up.
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Lucky...(jealousy forming) can you send me down some?


sure, but i just deleted my e-mail history... I had over 15,000 emails, some date as far back as 2010...

I'll look in my msn account.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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