Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013

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A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

Links:

Our news page
http://www.wunderground.com/news/

Our winter Storm page:
http://www.wunderground.com/winter-storm/nemo-2013.asp

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Why do people buy milk and bread for storms?

I'm sure bread is fine but do you really need a run on milk?

With a store full of thousands of non perishable foods and drinks, why are milk and bread cleaned off the shelves in hours?

At my house for significant winter weather(almost never) we buy gatorade/juice and canned foods/crackers/etc...

I've never understood the "BUY ALL THE BREAD AND MILK!!" panic at the first sign of a major snowstorm.


I buy all the beer and cheddar Chex Mix when a storm is on the way. Case in point: Today. So ya know, we all like different things when we're snowed in. Milk and bread is cheaper though.
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Quoting NEwxguy:


Look at Dr. Masters blog at the top he has the top ten snowfalls for Logan Airport
ok thanks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting LargoFl:
guys what exactly is the record snowfall for Boston?..is it 27 inches?


Look at Dr. Masters blog at the top he has the top ten snowfalls for Logan Airport
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looks like the tail end i gonna miss my area...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Can't hurt to have Doritos on side of milk and bread :) Hopefully y'all are safe up there!


how about doritos and water......
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like the Tallhassee area is going to squeeze through a "dry slot". Just our luck...


you back up there Jedkins?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
guys what exactly is the record snowfall for Boston?..is it 27 inches?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting NEwxguy:


Newscaster outside a store,asked the cashier what was selling the most.Doritos.I was rolling on the floor laughing,good to see my fellow new englanders have their priorities in order.
Can't hurt to have Doritos on side of milk and bread :) Hopefully y'all are safe up there!
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Looks like the Tallhassee area is going to squeeze through a "dry slot". Just our luck...


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Why do people buy milk and bread for storms?

I'm sure bread is fine but do you really need a run on milk?

With a store full of thousands of non perishable foods and drinks, why are milk and bread cleaned off the shelves in hours?

At my house for significant winter weather(almost never) we buy gatorade/juice and canned foods/crackers/etc...

I've never understood the "BUY ALL THE BREAD AND MILK!!" panic at the first sign of a major snowstorm.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Milk and bread, anyone? On serious note, hopefully everybody will be okay up the coast!


Newscaster outside a store,asked the cashier what was selling the most.Doritos.I was rolling on the floor laughing,good to see my fellow new englanders have their priorities in order.
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Euro data table is showing QPF of 2.73" for Boston so using the...

8:1 ratio, that's 21.8" of snow.

10:1 ratio, that's 27.3" of snow.

12:1 ratio, that's 32.8" of snow.

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Boston —



Mayor Thomas M. Menino today directed city departments to immediately prepare for a winter storm that could bring potential blizzard-like conditions and hurricane-force gusts this weekend.

The latest forecasts show that Boston could see 1-2 feet of snow between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon. Snowdrifts of 3-4 feet are possible, and during the heaviest periods, expected on Saturday, snow could fall at 2-4 inches per hour. Coastal flooding is also possible Friday night. The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Watch for Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.

“This is a very serious storm that is developing,” Menino said. “Safety is our number one priority, and my snow team will continue to monitor the situation so that Boston is ready for whatever comes our way.”

There is still a lot of uncertainty about the storm’s exact path, size, and duration. The city will continue to monitor the latest weather models and forecasts and will update the public with further information as it becomes available.

Commuters are urged to pay close attention over the next 24 hours, in the event that the city urges them not drive their vehicles into the city on Friday. If the weather projections hold, the priority will be on giving Public Works crews room to work to plow the snow.

Boston Public Works crews are preparing for the snow event, and will have almost 600 pieces of equipment active on city streets by early Friday morning. Crews are expected to be working through the weekend. The Office of Emergency Management is coordinating with city agencies, NSTAR, and the Weather Service to provide continuous updates to Menino. Boston Police, Fire, and Emergency Medical Services have arranged for additional staffing, and Police will be stationed at major intersections around the city. The Inspectional Services Department will double its shifts of inspectors working this weekend to deal with anticipated power and heat outages.


Read more: Boston prepares for winter storm - West Roxbury, MA - Wicked Local West Roxbury http://www.wickedlocal.com/roslindale/news/x846053 804/Boston-prepares-for-winter-storm#ixzz2KEu1YZzD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting stormchaser43:
Where's BravesFan today?


you are __ <-- that close to becoming the only non JFV character to ever be on my ignore list.....just stop already.
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Quoting stormchaser43:
No. Can you point me in the direction of them then? All I am seeing if stuff about the big blizzards and global warming not being anything but another cycle the Earth is going through...
Oh, I see. It appears, then, that either your router or your computer's firewall are set to "Allow only foolish drivel". Can't help you there; you may want to call an expert in your area. Wherever that may be today.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z lowest pressure about 967-968 mb Link
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
Quoting NEwxguy:
In what appeared to be the epitome of the frenzy to prepare, so many people were stocking up for the storm in Salem,Mass. today that the fire department responded to the Market Basket supermarket for storm-related overcrowding, a fire official said.
Milk and bread, anyone? On serious note, hopefully everybody will be okay up the coast!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno. Does your browser only let you go to WattsUpWithThat.com, maybe? If so, try visiting some actual science sites; that's where you'll find the non-ideological truth.


Obviously her browser lets her go to www.wunderground.com and a wattsupwiththat supporter wouldnt be against saying an ice age is coming. ;)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
maybe not ;)
Ok, maybe this could be the biggest ever, but 24"+ storms had happened before.
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it could very well turn out to be a big surprise tomorrow for alot of folks up there,especially if this stalls out...the time to prepare is right NOW folks..and dont forget to look in on folks around you..especially the elderly..i know i keep saying this but its important ok.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
In what appeared to be the epitome of the frenzy to prepare, so many people were stocking up for the storm in Salem,Mass. today that the fire department responded to the Market Basket supermarket for storm-related overcrowding, a fire official said.
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Good afternoon everyone, so I see there is a big snowstorm heading for the Northeast US, well good luck to those up there hope you all don't lose power, as for me I'm glad I live in FL. away from all the cold and snow, if I had my way I would move to Guyana where it is hot and tropical all year round and be with my people them.
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Quoting stormchaser43:

How about the Georgia Dome? They should have it there...


too old

Quoting Bluestorm5:
What the heck are you talking about? No one is going to be claiming "Next Ice Age" after this storm. This is just a historic storm and nothing more. Storms of this size had happened before.


maybe not ;)

Quoting stormchaser43:
This really looks like it'll be a monster. CN and MA are gonna get socked. So glad I am not seeing the next ice age is coming soon trash on here. Keep it real.


WOW a complete 180 from yesterday's drivel....not like I'm surprised.....
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Quoting stormchaser43:
But how come I keep reading stuff about the globe cooling with these big snowstorms?
I dunno. Does your browser only let you go to WattsUpWithThat.com, maybe? If so, try visiting some actual science sites; that's where you'll find the non-ideological truth.
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Quoting stormchaser43:

Not this big I don't think. This could be the biggest ever, right?
COULD BE if NAM is correct, but NAM is an outlier so far with 30" to 40" for Boston. GFS is showing a lot less at 15" to 20" and Euro is right in between at 24" to 30". Right now, I'm leaning toward mixture of GFS/Euro solution between 16" to 28". The biggest ever in Boston is 27".
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Quoting stormchaser43:

Not this big I don't think. This could be the biggest ever, right?


Its big, but not the biggest.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2882
REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1249 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS TODAY IN QUEBEC. THEN CAROLINA'S
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND BECOMES A VERY STRONG STORM 100 MILES EAST
OF ATLANTIC CITY FRIDAY EVENING INTENSIFYING FURTHER TO NEAR
NANTUCKET EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
DAY FLURRIES BUT HAVE WITHDRAWN THE DISTRACTION FROM THE FCST.
HOWEVER...MAY ADD BACK IN FOR NE PA IN A FUTURE UPDATE. NO
MATTER...ITS NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
**IMPOSING WINTER STORM TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...

ALL LEGACY AND POINT-CLICK FORECASTS UPDATED WITH MORE SNOW AND I
LIKE THE WORDING.

WE'VE HAD AN EASTERN REGION CONFERENCE CALL WITH NCEP AT NOON AND
UNLESS THE ECMWF BACKS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE SE IN THE 12Z
RUN...WE WILL WARN AND ADVISE. DETAILS TO BE FORTHCOMING AROUND
230 PM.

THE SNOW TOTAL MAPS WILL UPDATE BY 1255 PM. THEY ARE HIGHER.

12Z NAM IS FURTHER WEST...DOESNT MEAN ITS CORRECT BUT LOOKS
CLOSER TO THE 00Z/7 ECMWF AND THREATENING A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR N
AND NE NJ FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME IN NE NJ. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS HEAVY AND A BIT FURTHER EAST
PRODUCING HALF OF THE NAM QPF.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FLURRIES NE PA IN UPSLOPE
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW. THEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND N OF
I78 AFTER 05Z WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH BY SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT
ROAD TREATMENT NEEDED!

I95 SEWD...RAIN PROBABLE LATE WITH MAYBE A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

JIM'S MID SHIFT REASONING BELOW...


LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE (STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING) INCREASES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SPLITS
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL LIFT SOUTH.
THE BEST LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...GENERATED MAINLY BY UPGLIDE IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS IS MANIFESTED IN THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BORDER TONIGHT.

SO...BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD ADVANCE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...STARTING ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE BEST UPGLIDE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST ZONES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE DRY COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE STEADIER
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY END UP HAVING A
DETERMINING FACTOR WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE THIS
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR
EVEN JUST RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO DELAWARE AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND. AS THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS EXHAUSTED...THE
RAIN SNOW LINE SHOULD MOVE TO A POSITION NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR AFTER 0600 UTC FRIDAY.

SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. IN FACT...LOWS COULD OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STEADIER
PRECIPITATION...THEN SLOWLY RISE. THE MOS BLEND SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS WELL...AND WAS USED FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


WE'VE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AND ADDED MORE SNOW DURING THE
DAY I78 NORTH. WE HAVE SEEN THE RGEM THROUGH 48 HRS AND IT BASICALLY
CONCURS WITH A COLDER SNOWIER APPROACH...CERTAINLY I80 NORTH IN
OUR CWA AND POSSIBLY I78 NORTH. THE 12Z GFS AND 09Z SREF SUPPORTS
HEAVIER SNOW AMTS NNJ AND NE PA. THE 12Z UK IS MUCH FURTHER EAST
AND BOTHERSOME WHEN ITS NOT PART OF THE REMAINING CONSENSUS.

THE EVENT THEN DEPENDS ON PHASING OF THE GTLKS SHORT WAVE WITH
THE FEEDER WARMER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. ALL
DELICATE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT ITS SLOWLY LEANING...COLDER
AND SNOWIER...TALKING """"POTENTIAL"""" FOR MORE THAN A FOOT AND
DRIFTS TO 3 FT FAR NNJ ALONG AND N OF RTE 80. WE HAVEN'T ISSUED
THESE KIND OF FCSTS YET AND ASK THAT YOU WAIT BEFORE GOING FORWARD
WITH THIS AS MORE LIKELY DETERMINISTIC SCENARIO. WE NOW HAVE THE
12Z RGEM/NAM IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE 00Z EC AND 09Z SREF AND THE
THE 12Z GFS TO A LESSER DEGREE BUT STILL IN THE BALLPARK.

THIS LOOKS TO BECOME A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR FAR NNJ...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS LATE FRI AFTN THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY...
GUSTY N WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

WE ARE CONSIDERING A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL NOT ISSUE IF THE ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY...BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH A CLOUDY START BECOMING BRIGHT
AND SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. NW WIND GUSTING 30-35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, BY SUN NIGHT, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MOVES ACRS THE UPR MS VLY.
THIS LOW THEN PROGRESSES EWD INTO SRN CANADA ON MONDAY AND BRINGS A
CDFNT THRU THE REGION AND A RENEWED SHOT OF PRECIP. ONCE AGAIN,
SINCE THE PRECIP WILL START OVERNIGHT, MANY AREAS WILL SEE WINTRY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO THE LIQUID FORM DURG THE DAY
MONDAY AS TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS EVEN ARE INTO
THE 50S. ANY PRECIP SHUD END ERLY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 10000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF SCT-BKN NEAR 2500 FT AFTER 23Z. NE WIND 5-15 KT BECOMING E OR
ESE LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH
BETWEEN 05Z-09Z. 09Z STRONG SREF SUPPORT IN PROBS FOR CIGS/VSBY.
RUNWAY TREATMENTS POSSIBLE FOR KABE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...IFR CONDS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE EXCEPT MOSTLY SNOW KABE NORTHWARD.
KRDG ON THE FENCE BETWEEN R/S AND I'VE NO CONFIDENT ANSWER THERE.

FRIDAY EVENING 21Z/8-01Z/9...RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION NW TO SE ALL
TAF AIRPORTS EXCEPT KMIV AND KACY DELAYED TIL NEAR 03Z. LIFR CONDS
IN A PROBABLE PERIOD OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW WHICH PROBABLY LASTS 1
TO 4 HRS. NE WIND G15-25 KTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW DIMINISHES FROM NW TO SE ALL TAF AIRPORTS WITH
IFR CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDS LATE. RUNWAY TREATMENTS OR
PLOWING EXPECTED ALL TAF AIRPORTS. N-NW WIND G25-35KT.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY, DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTS AS POSTED FOR LATER TONIGHT.

IF THE 12Z/7 GFS AND ECMWF ARE IDENTICAL REGARDING THEIR SFC PRES
TRACK AND INTENSITY COMPARED TO THEIR 00Z-6Z/7 PREDECESSOR CYCLES...
THEN A GALE OR STORM WARNING WBIS AT 330 PM FOR THE PERIOD 12Z FRIDAY
12Z- 18Z SATURDAY FOR THE ATLC WATERS AND LOWER DE BAY WITH A
WATCH CONTINUING FOR UPPER DE BAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER SURFACE HIGH QUEBEC GUIDES THE FLOW
TO THE EAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
MAINE AND QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST TIGHTENS...IT COULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS DELAWARE BAY AFTER 0600 AND 1200
UTC FRIDAY. THE INCREASING EASTERLY FETCH WILL HELP DEVELOP SEAS
WITH A SHORTENING PERIOD LATE AS WELL. THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS REACHING NEAR 5 FEET TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FRI-SAT...A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO NEAR CAPE COD ON SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS STORM, PICKING UP TO
GALE FORCE /POSSIBLY BRIEF STORM FORCE/ LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND
THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WIND AND SEAS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
330 PM: A CFA WBIS WITH OUR 330PM PACKAGE FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE WHICH PROJECT MDT...CLOSE TO MAJOR BUT FOR NOW FAVOR MDT
ALONG THE ATLC COAST.

A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR
AND POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE TIDE CYCLE OF MOST
CONCERN IS THE CYCLE SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE TWO CYCLES
PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING THIS PARTICULAR CYCLE SHOULD EQUAL OR
EXCEED MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
STATUS REPORT:

KSMQ TEMP CONT OTS WITH PARTS ON ORDER. UNSURE WHEN RTS. TEMP
PROCESSING CONTS TURNED OFF.

KMIV VOICE METAR DATA. ALL 3 VOICE-LINES OTS. DATA CONTS TO POST
VIA AWIPS ETC. HOPEFULLY REPAIRED LATER TODAY.

44009: CONTS OTS. RTS UNKNOWN. PARTLY WEATHER DEPENDENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1250
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1250
SHORT TERM...DRAG/HAYES 1250
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 1250
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 1250
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1250
EQUIPMENT...

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Good Grief! Here I am on the south shore of Long Island New York. Many people on the shore still haven't gotten their homes together again after Sandy!
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Quoting stormchaser43:

The good news is this system will be far off the coast. Enough to keep the strongest moisture fields over the Atlantic...
Not so sure of that.
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Quoting stormchaser43:
This really looks like it'll be a monster. CN and MA are gonna get socked. So glad I am not seeing the next ice age is coming soon trash on here. Keep it real.
Yeah, you can find all that "the next ice age is coming soon" nonsense over on BaselessFantasy.com, right between their "The Tooth Fairy is real" and "The earth is flat" pages.
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180 hours still snowing up there............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting stormchaser43:
This really looks like it'll be a monster. CN and MA are gonna get socked. So glad I am not seeing the next ice age is coming soon trash on here. Keep it real.
What the heck are you talking about? No one is going to be claiming "Next Ice Age" after this storm. This is just a historic storm and nothing more. Storms of this size had happened before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Mike Seidel ‏@mikeseidel

Look who is sitting across from me on my flight to Boston. And why does he keep poking me with that yardstick?



Lucky
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2882
omg one week from today,hope your dug out already..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Mike Seidel ‏@mikeseidel

Look who is sitting across from me on my flight to Boston. And why does he keep poking me with that yardstick?




LOL



looks like jim is haveing too marh fun
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Luisport:
This comes from a poster on accuweather forum:

Something Undertakerson mentioned regarding the "Fujiwara Effect" early this morning. Very fascinating because as some already this is something that is very rare that is happening. Two rather strong systems phasing together. The southern storm isn't formed from the northern storm as a typical Miller B. It is a hybrid type of creation where the southern storm that already exists grabs the energy from the northern storm.

In most situations this would never happen as the southern storm would likely go OTS trying to move away from the strong northern storm. But in this case the escape route is blocked by the big HP to the north at it is almost like the southern storm is "forced" to phase with the northern system.
AND they move westward instead of heading east.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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