Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on February 06, 2013

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During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.


Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.


Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.


Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.


Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

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733. PedleyCA
4:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting Minnemike:
has anyone noticed the WU Nexrad stations are now showing a larger area per station, only the signal range is still the same size? i haven't been on the blog for some days so i don't know if this has been mentioned, just curious.. it's a bit odd to me


Mine too. Click on the word Radar at the top and it will revert to the correct size.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5809
732. ScottLincoln
4:07 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
A repost from the previous thread to help with continued issues in understanding the relationship between snowfall and climate...
Quoting stormchaser43:
Keep us posted. I just can't wait for the climate change alarmists to get on here warning us that this will happen all the time and this will begin happening in August too.

No, it wont happen "all the time" or "in August too."
Let's take a step back from irrational straw man arguments, ad hominem comments, and overall ignorance for a second, and take a look at what the data actually shows scientists regarding possible climatic trends in snowfall.

Is snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere changing? Yes, in some ways. The trend for Northern Hemisphere snow coverr is downward since the late 1960s, and the trend is statistically significant:


Is the seasonality of this snow cover changing? Yes. The trends in snow cover are different for each season, with possible slight increases in the middle of winter and very steep declines in the summer and fall/autumn:
July Trends
February Trends

Snow cover might be increasing in winter, but is that directly tied to stronger winter storms?
Possibly. Some stations show an overall upward trend since the 1980s, other stations show a downward trend:


How can an overall increase in the average heat energy of earth's climate system cause more snow? As anyone who has studied meteorology knows, snow is related to temperature, but not directly correlated. That is because snow is precipitation, but is a precipitation dependent on particular temperature ranges; after a certain point cooler temperatures correlate with reduced snowfall amounts. As the Northeast Regional Climate Center explains:
In the short run, climate change could actually mean more heavy snowstorms. A warmer atmosphere means that the air can hold more water vapor, and this can result in more storms with heavy precipitation. In fact, scientists have already documented an increase in heavy precipitation events. If it is cold enough to snow, these storms can drop heavy snow instead of rain. However, the possible links between climate change and heavy snowfall is an area of active scientific research, with no definitive answers yet. And many credit the past two years of heavy snow to the North Atlantic Oscillation, and not necessarily to climate change.

Just as indicated, atmospheric moisture is increasing:

An increase in atmospheric moisture generally leads to an increase in precipitation, and when temperatures are cold enough to snow (for example, Winter), an increase in snowfall could be expected.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3192
731. pcola57
3:47 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
New Blog.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
730. LargoFl
3:46 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
suns out here and hardly a cloud in sight but getting real windy now..come on..gimme some rain lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463
729. Bluestorm5
3:44 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
IF i remember right...one inch of rain could equal one foot of snow..and this coming nor'easter is dumping 3-4 inches of rain..now add to that the cold low coming from the west..together this is going to be a record breaker i guess..
I think the snow ratio is going to be at 10:1 to 12:1, meaning 10-12 inches of snow for every inch of rain. I thinking we'll see at least 20" of snow at the least and 40" of snow at the most.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
728. Minnemike
3:44 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
has anyone noticed the WU Nexrad stations are now showing a larger area per station, only the signal range is still the same size? i haven't been on the blog for some days so i don't know if this has been mentioned, just curious.. it's a bit odd to me
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
727. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
726. GeorgiaStormz
3:43 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Later, I'll have to look up the all-time record snowstorm list for #Toronto. Link #nemo #blizzard
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
725. ILwthrfan
3:41 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting SteveDa1:
Looks like this one will almost completely miss me (4-6 inches expected)...

Definitely looking like a great setup for a substantial snowfall for quite a bit of people though!


You should be happy with 4-6, I haven't seen half that all year combined. #@(*&! That track could shift 50 miles and put you in a whole other category.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
724. ncstorm
3:40 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow.



the GFS has been showing the low in each run developing faster than predicted..I showed this last night with the 18z/12z run

06z


00z
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
723. LargoFl
3:40 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
IF i remember right...one inch of rain could equal one foot of snow..and this coming nor'easter is dumping 3-4 inches of rain..now add to that the cold low coming from the west..together this is going to be a record breaker i guess..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463
722. pcola57
3:39 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
lets say for arguments sake..it does approach 3 feet of snow..that along with 60 mph winds..do you have any idea at all what that will do?...........folks dont listen to us..go out NOW and buy your supplies and meds etc..stores may not be open for a few days if not more..and most importantly...check on the elderly..make sure they are ok and ready for this


And for the students tuning in, this storm will be a great study for you as well..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
721. ILwthrfan
3:38 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:
big time cooling in sea temper is going on

FEB 4th





here the new one FEB 7th





HurricaneDean07 was talking about this earlier today on his blog. It certainly looks concerning. We will have to see what it looks like as we get into spring. If conditions persist with what your showing, people have been mumbling the 2005 year as a analog.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
720. LargoFl
3:38 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow.

we here in florida and along the gulf coast are so lucky..this isnt august
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463
719. pcola57
3:36 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&


Yeah we have plenty of water here now..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
718. LargoFl
3:36 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
lets say for arguments sake..it does approach 3 feet of snow..that along with 60 mph winds..do you have any idea at all what that will do?...........folks dont listen to us..go out NOW and buy your supplies and meds etc..stores may not be open for a few days if not more..and most importantly...check on the elderly..make sure they are ok and ready for this
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463
717. ILwthrfan
3:36 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
716. Tazmanian
3:35 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
big time cooling in sea temper is going on

FEB 4th





here the new one FEB 7th



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115083
715. LargoFl
3:34 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463
714. ILwthrfan
3:32 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue%u200F@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link


That model is also using a 10:1 ratio for an average too. As the back half the storm pulls away the snow will only translate to a higher ratio. Big Difference on whether you get a 10:1 versus a 12:1. ~ 17% higher could mean 17% more snow too. Then there is the high water anomalies in the Gulf Stream which only help add moisture to the system.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
713. JoeBananas
3:31 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Paper on Post Glacial Rebound (PGR) and affect on water levels in the Great Lakes region:

http://www.geod.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/pgrreportnov2001. pdf

Post Glacial Rebound:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
712. AstroHurricane001
3:31 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Seriously! NAM is predicting 16 - 18 inches for my university, and 20 - 25 inches for where I actually live (Newmarket, ON)! I go home for the weekend!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
711. pcola57
3:31 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:




That model also is using a 10:1 ratio for an average too. As the back half the storm pulls away the snow will only translate to a higher ratio. Big Difference on whether you get a 10:1 versus a 12:1. ~ 17% higher could mean 17% more snow too. Then there is the high water anomalies in the Gulf Stream which help add moisture to the system.




Very Good point ILwthrfan..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
710. ILwthrfan
3:29 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
..
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
709. 1Banana
3:29 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
I don't think I have ever seen "black" before...



Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
708. NEwxguy
3:27 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Im here in eastern Mass,and really doubt 3-4 feet,but can see 2-3 feet.Where the deformation zone sets up,is where those kind of totals appear,or under some thundersnow.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
707. ncstorm
3:26 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
12z NAM 6 hour precip





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
706. GeorgiaStormz
3:26 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
BTW if this rainy pattern keeps up the SE will be more worried about flooding than drought,
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
705. ncstorm
3:24 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
12z NAM



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
704. 900MB
3:24 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link


That also puts NYC back into the 2' range!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
703. SteveDa1
3:21 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Looks like this one will almost completely miss me (4-6 inches expected)...

Definitely looking like a great setup for a substantial snowfall for quite a bit of people though!
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
702. pcola57
3:20 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
NAM out 48hrs..

Link


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
701. Luisport
3:18 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
700. Slamguitar
3:17 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
I see we have winter storm Nemo now.

Have a great day and stay safe everyone!! I'll be preparing to be snowed in for a few days. 15-18" will be the most significant snowfall here by far this season.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
699. 900MB
3:08 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Thanks Pcola57!

Euro seems more bullish for NYC. Anyone else with a great euro snowfall map?
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
698. pcola57
3:05 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Blowing 30kts with horizontal rain in Fort Walton Beach...


Hello neighbor..
Rainfall so far this am at 1.70",winds 21mph,28.91" pressure,67 degrees with dewpoint at 66..
Soggy,windy here..

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Escambia County in northwest Florida...
southeastern Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...

* until 1000 am CST

* at 800 am CST... showers and thunderstorms moving over the
advisory area have produced 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past
hour... and an additional 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible through
1000 am CST. This will result in minor flooding of poor drainage and
low lying areas and ponding of water on roadways.

* Locations impacted include...
Pensacola international Airport... Perdido Beach...
Orange Beach... West Pensacola... Warrington...
Pensacola... Myrtle Grove... Goulding...
Brent...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive rainfall runoff will cause ponding of water in urban
areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 3027 8764 3043 8755 3049 8724 3047 8715
3043 8717 3039 8721 3038 8726 3033 8727
3033 8720 3035 8715 3033 8713 3032 8715
3031 8725 3032 8731 3029 8742

Special Statement..
.. A line of strong thunderstorms will affect southeastern Baldwin
County in southwest Alabama... western Santa Rosa and southern
Escambia counties in northwest Florida... through 945 am CST...

At 825 am CST... a line of strong thunderstorms was located along a
line extending from 8 miles southeast of Robertsdale to 4 miles east
of Foley to 4 miles north of Gulf Shores... and moving east at 40 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Perdido Beach... Orange Beach... Gulf Shores...
Gonzalez... Ensley... Bellview...
Lillian... Foley... Elberta...

This includes Interstate 10 in Florida between mile markers 1 and 10.
This includes Interstate 10 in Alabama between mile markers 49 and
66.

The primary threats from these storms are wind gusts up to 55 mph.
Winds this strong could blow off tree limbs and also blow around
small unsecured objects. Seek shelter until these storms have passed.

These storms may continue to intensify and a warning may soon be
needed. Please continue to monitor local radio or TV for further
National Weather Service updates or possible warnings

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
697. NttyGrtty
2:56 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Blowing 30kts+ with horizontal rain in Fort Walton Beach...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
696. pcola57
2:53 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Moisture being pulled from the GOM at this time..
That's ALOT..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
695. JustPlantIt
2:35 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Check back later... gotta get some wood moved just in case!
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
694. pcola57
2:29 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting 900MB:
Hey all. Anyone know what the last time the Euro came out, and when the next euro comes out?

Also, anyone have the latest Euro snowfall map for NYC. It is the only one I trust at this point.

Thanks!



Not the best Image but shows a solid 10-14" ATT..



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TWO LOWS APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR BY THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

LOW PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
LOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THESE 2 SYSTEMS PHASE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE OCEAN...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR BLIZZARD CONDS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...SO
HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR SUFFOLK...NEW
HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDS WOULD EXTEND INTO WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE 06Z NAM IS IN A POSITION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT
BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS. MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN A
POSITION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE
LOW. FOR NOW...EXPECTING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
FRIDAY THAT WOULD CHANGE INITIAL SNOWFALL TO RAIN...BUT IF THAT
WARMER AIR DOES NOT MAKE IT...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW WOULD FALL
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BE
INCREASED. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...WILL CARRY 6-10 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
LONG ISLAND WILL HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 8-12
INCHES...AND CT WOULD RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 18-24 INCHES OVER EASTERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY LOWER AND HIGHER AMOUNTS. ONE OTHER NOTE OF CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. IF THIS MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL
AREA...THAT COULD RESULT IN LESS SNOWFALL...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A MAJOR THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE NYC METRO EAST...CT AND LI.
MODEL WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE RUNNING 50 TO 65
KT...EQUATING TO 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH 50 TO 65 MPH GUSTS
POTENTIAL. HIGHEST WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN CT AND
EASTERN LI. THESE WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WOULD PRESENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
693. FunnelVortex
2:26 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting JustPlantIt:
From your post #676 in reference to 'Sandy', I assumed that you resided on the East Coast.


I thought you were comparing Nemo with Sandy, so thats why I said that.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
692. JustPlantIt
2:24 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The 7 day forecast for my area (link embedded)

(I circled the snowstorm timeframe in red)



From your post #676 in reference to 'Sandy', I assumed that you resided on the East Coast.
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
691. FunnelVortex
2:22 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
The 7 day forecast for my area (link embedded)

(I circled the snowstorm timeframe in red)



Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
690. washingtonian115
2:18 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
This winter storm won't be affecting my area like that so I don't really care for the storm.Enjoy you all's snow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
689. FunnelVortex
2:17 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting JustPlantIt:
My mistake... I thought we were talking about the Noreaster for Friday into Saturday.


Yeah, the storm I posted about in comment 671
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
688. pcola57
2:17 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I'm talking about the snowstorm that is supposed to hit my area on Sunday.


From your blog post I see your in Central Wisconsin..
And as you know,weather can get really bad there..
I think you should error on the side of caution..
JMO FWIW.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
687. 900MB
2:17 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Hey all. Anyone know what the last time the Euro came out, and when the next euro comes out?

Also, anyone have the latest Euro snowfall map for NYC. It is the only one I trust at this point.

Thanks!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
686. JustPlantIt
2:15 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I'm talking about the snowstorm that is supposed to hit my area on Sunday.
My mistake... I thought we were talking about the Noreaster for Friday into Saturday.

Nemo.
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
685. FunnelVortex
2:13 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Sorry and I don't mean to be rude... But winds up to 60 mph!


I'm talking about the snowstorm that is supposed to hit my area on Sunday.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
684. LargoFl
2:12 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
I hope there is no reason to believe this system stalls out over boston for days
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463
683. LargoFl
2:11 PM GMT on February 07, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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