Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on February 06, 2013

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During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.


Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.


Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.


Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.


Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Hard to believe that two rather benign looking disturbances can come together to bring about this potential blockbuster. Things like this are why meteorology never ceases to amaze me.



I agree,of older age,I can remember the blizzard of 78,it took a long time for most forecasters to fall into step with the major event,it just didn't look that bad,of course data collection was so archaic back then,we didn't have the amount of data we collect these days.but it still amazes how these small systems merge and explode.
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Quoting stormchaser43:

Incorrect. You mention it all the time. Same with BravesFan.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting nymore:
UTC works on a 24 hour clock, it is no problem we all make mistakes. I posted bad info last night and quickly caught it and deleted my post. I would have picked the first person to post it but would have been accused of what not I'm sure, you were second so I quoted yours.


I know about the military time and the GMT...I changed the heading on that post...

On a weather note... snowfall accumulations have been raised from 8 to 11" for my area... will be bumped again...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
for those along the gulf coast..oh boy............
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER
OF PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARDS...POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
GREATER THAN A FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...AND ALSO IN SECTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL PERHAPS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY...FALLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


huh... Idk why i just got the e-mail for it... well sorry.
I did not know it happened either
UTC works on a 24 hour clock, it is no problem we all make mistakes. I posted bad info last night and quickly caught it and deleted my post. I would have picked the first person to post it but would have been accused of what not I'm sure, you were second so I quoted yours.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Anyone else eagerly awaiting the Taunton NWS Forecast Discussion? Should be a good read for this afternoon.


Here it is.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

***WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING***

A QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT OUT TO EXPAND A WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A FOOT OR MORE
OF SNOW AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WE HAVE BROUGHT UP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...BUT IT MAY NOT EVEN BE
ENOUGH IN SOME LOCALES. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND HOW FAR NORTH A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO RAIN MAKES IT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AREAS THAT CHANGE
TO RAIN MAY GET HIT HARD BY THE COLD CONVEYER BELT. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. WILL HAVE MUCH MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY....
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

MOST OF THE 06/00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL IDEA OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
06/00Z ECMWF HAS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF ITS LOW
PRESSURE...RESULTING IN FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR OUR REGION.
GIVEN THIS SHIFT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH INCLUDED THE 05/12Z ECMWF. THIS WAS TO
MINIMIZE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE
DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.

THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE ALSO IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS
POINT...

THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES
COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE
MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
321. VR46L
Quoting stormchaser43:

You weren't the only one fooled. Neapolitan also posted the same exact thing. UTC time can be tricky and hard to understand.



Not for Me , Is my time zone Half the Year ;)
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There appears to be a developing MCV just off of the Upper Texas Coast.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION


Excerpt:


THE 12Z RUNS INCREASINGLY POINT TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURES OF THE
LOW FALL TO THE 970S TO LOW 980S WITHIN THE 12Z RUNS. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 24 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ARE FOUND JUST NORTHWEST FROM WHERE THE CYCLONE
DECELERATES AND EVEN MAY MAKE A BIT OF A LOOP AROUND ITSELF ON
SATURDAY. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ALSO SHOW THE LOW THEN MAKING A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE PULLING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SAME KIND OF BEHAVIOR EXHIBITED BY
SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...SUCH AS THE MORE RECENT BLIZZARD
OF 2005/APRIL FOOLS BLIZZARD OF 1997...THAT THIS STORM MAY ALSO
EXHIBIT.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...VERY HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
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possible 50 mph wind gusts..whew..drifting snow for sure.......URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-070430-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm sorry you don't understand. Allow me to try one more time:

Three weeks ago--on January 15--NOAA stated in its annual global climate report that 2012 was the 10th warmest year on record. (Dr. Masters wrote about it here.). NOAA also stated that 2012 was the warmest La Nina year on record. The list of La Nina years used as a basis for that statement was from the CPC's ONI dataset, which used a 1971-2000 base period.

With me so far? Good.

Now, during the course of the year (2012), the CPC introduced a different ONI dataset using different base periods, with the most recent years in the dataset using the 1981-2010 base period. They did this because the most recent base period--1981-2010, as opposed to 1971-2000--allowed scientists to better determine whether to classify any particular year as a La Nina.

Still with me? Almost done.

With the introduction of the new dataset using the 1981-2010 base period, 2006 and 2009 were reclassified as La Nina years, where previously they'd been considered neutral. Since both those years were slightly warmer than 2012, they moved into first and second place, and knocked 2012 down to third. And the NOAA just this week revised the January 15 report to reflect these changes.

So, again: nothing evil, nothing manipulative; no lies, no deceit, no trickery. No one was "caught". This is yet another example of scientists doing their job by constantly reviewing their observations, and making corrections when warranted.

Not that I expect any fossil fuel devotees to understand... ;-)
You don't get it do you. They should have never have said 2012 was the warmest La Nina year to begin with. Simply because when the report came out it (the ONI) had already been changed in March making 2006 and 2009 the warmest. 2006 and 2009 should have already been reclassified by the time the latest report was issued. Nothing has changed since they issued the report, they simply did not do their due diligence and when pointed out to them they changed the report. It may simply be a mistake but one that should be pointed out.

FWIW you to are a fossil fuel devotee, for it is what got your food to you, it is what fertilized your food, it is what makes certain medicines possible, it is what is in your technology devices, it is what is powering the internet, it is how you travel, it is how you heat and cool your home, and on and on. If you hate the cancer (CC) so bad quit smoking (using fossil fuels) easy enough huh, now I know your life will change but it is going to change anyway for the worse as you spout here everyday.
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GFS wont budge..its snow alright......
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For those wondering what the 12z ECMWF had to say about snowfall totals, here you are

12z ECMWF Snowfall Total through 96hrs


(image courtesy of weatherbell/Ryan Maue)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting Naga5000:


I've been here quite a long time and specific people going after Neapolitan has occurred on multiple occasions long before post 146. The fact is, it is a common tactic for some to attack Neapolitan instead of producing scientifically based arguments with valid citations. Like I said, why are some so obsessed with him? It's at best a tactic to not engage facts and at worse a sad obsession by posters who cannot form arguments to attempt to dispute those facts.

With all the talk of agenda, not only against the author of the blog (a respected scientist) but also against other posters who engage in proper discussion with cited data, it really begs the question as to why they are here in the first place if the author and the comments are so reprehensible and detestable.


When people have their shortcomings exposed, they can get very defensive, and attack is the best form of defence.

Nea exposes their poor grasp of the science and their inability to make reasoned arguments. That hits a nerve.

Some of them may also be oil industry shills. There are actually people out there who earn a living posting anti AGW propaganda on Internet forums. The Telegraph site is overrun with them.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
folks in the northeast, it looks more and more like a blizzard is going to develop up there friday on..make sure you check on the elderly and make sure they have their meds and supplies, a 1-2 foot snowfall with drifts will close roads etc...stay safe up there ok.
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Anyone else eagerly awaiting the Taunton NWS Forecast Discussion? Should be a good read for this afternoon.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting nymore:
That Quake was last night. Look at the UTC time


huh... Idk why i just got the e-mail for it... well sorry.
I did not know it happened either
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BLIZZARD WATCHES JUST ISSUED FOR RHODE ISLAND ALL THE WAY TO BOSTON...



very serous situation developing


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

MAZ005>007-013>018-RIZ001>004-070430-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T0600Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1200Z-130209T2100Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOST ON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVID ENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
Hard to believe that two rather benign looking disturbances can come together to bring about this potential blockbuster. Things like this are why meteorology never ceases to amaze me.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting Luisport:
BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi 1 h

This is sick, even by my warped weather standards the 11-16 ENSEMBLE.. in c Link
GFS Ensembles have been consistently showing that solution for days now. ECMWF and CMC ensembles have consistently disagreed. Personally I don't buy the long run GEFS solution, and I think we'll see more of a compromise.

GFS Ensemble Day 15 Height Anomalies




I think the trough extending from the Great Lakes to the west will be stronger and further west, subtropical ridging in the SE will be more pronounced, and troughing off the East coast will be lesser (though not as insignificant as the GEM Ens shows). This is basically what a compromise between the GEFS and CMC Ens/ECMWF Ens solutions would produce.

GEM Ensemble Day 15

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AND THEN
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
7.0 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time
6 Feb 2013 01:54:15 UTC
6 Feb 2013 12:54:15 near epicenter
5 Feb 2013 20:54:15 standard time in your timezone
Location 10.479S 165.772E
Depth 9 km
That Quake was last night. Look at the UTC time
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We're just 4 months to Cane season, are your ready?

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On the good side, lower lake levels mean great opportunities to find historical objects and fossils on the lake bottom! YEA!

Increased gas prices lead to more tax revenue, hurricane damage leads to a boom in construction and renovation and yet more sales tax revenue, droughts increase bottled water sales and taxes.... nope, climate change may mean more taxes but like all the events listed here NOBODY WANTS THEM and most are willing to work to avoid them. Just because it increases taxes doesn't mean it isn't real.
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GFS Ensembles sure are persistent.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Updated information from the Boston NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-070430-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
if this was july or august i'd be getting a bit nervous right now...
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Quoting ncstorm:
Sorry guys for the images but I found this interesting on the 00z/12z runs..a lot of rain/snow depending where you live on the east coast

00z CMC-long range




12z CMC..this weekend.







later down the road




that may be the coastal storm the NWS in new england is warning about in their winter wtaches...
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BLIZZARD WATCHES JUST ISSUED FOR RHODE ISLAND ALL THE WAY TO BOSTON...



very serous situation developing
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
LATE FOR THAT 7.0
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
7.0 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time
6 Feb 2013 01:54:15 UTC
6 Feb 2013 12:54:15 near epicenter
5 Feb 2013 20:54:15 standard time in your timezone
Location 10.479S 165.772E
Depth 9 km
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Looks like a rain event for me Friday :/
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Just had a large--7.0 preliminary MM--and relatively shallow aftershock in the Santa Cruz Islands:

False alarm; the alert email sent by the USGS was actually dated early this morning UTC.
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BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi 1 h

This is sick, even by my warped weather standards the 11-16 ENSEMBLE.. in c Link
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Quoting VR46L:


Actually Post 146 opened the door , where the photo is of a church which has the signpost inferring the church of Neapolitan . So I think its a fair Question , How should he be addressed then ?


I've been here quite a long time and specific people going after Neapolitan has occurred on multiple occasions long before post 146. The fact is, it is a common tactic for some to attack Neapolitan instead of producing scientifically based arguments with valid citations. Like I said, why are some so obsessed with him? It's at best a tactic to not engage facts and at worse a sad obsession by posters who cannot form arguments to attempt to dispute those facts.

With all the talk of agenda, not only against the author of the blog (a respected scientist) but also against other posters who engage in proper discussion with cited data, it really begs the question as to why they are here in the first place if the author and the comments are so reprehensible and detestable.
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting stormchaser43:
Global Warming, Right?


exactly
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Greedy Lying Bastards
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Quoting stormchaser43:
Just continue and pound away at the agenda. Go on. No one is stopping you.


nobody is mentioning AGW but you.....
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The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

It's been a week since the tornado outbreak that left a north Georgia town damaged. See how they're doing:
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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