Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels
During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.
Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.
Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.
Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I live north of there...
My mom kept us home from school that day fearing that we would get stuck on the buses. I was 10 and every storm since has of course been compared to 78'.
I would keep my kids home tomorrow.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD 1-1.5 INCHES OR MORE OR TOTAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING MORE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY 2 TO 4
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLOODING IS LIKELY. THERE
IS LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THESE SYSTEMS SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7 AT THIS TIME.
coastal southern NS may be only place to see the snow with 2 feet or more
as for the ne us they all may need a front end loader to clear there driveways after this event and a boat for the next event
NYC battle zone as rain/snow line over city for 5 hours would mean 10 inch difference in total Ensemble wetter/colder Link
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 4:01 PM
EST Wednesday 6 February 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
Snowstorm threatening Thursday night into Friday..
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An Alberta clipper currently tracking southeastward through the
Dakotas is expected to track across the us midwest tonight and
Thursday then track just south of Lake Erie on Friday.
Snow ahead of this clipper will start spreading into Southern Ontario
from Michigan and Lake Huron on Thursday with perhaps a couple cm of
snow by Thursday evening in a swath of regions extending from Lake
Huron to Western Lake Ontario.
As the clipper gets closer, latest indications suggest it will
intensify Thursday night, with an expanding area of heavier snow
expected to move into most of Southern and Eastern Ontario.
Some freezing rain and ice pellets are possible over the extreme
southwest.
Snow, heavy at times is now expected to continue into Friday as the
clipper sails by just south of the Great Lakes.
Many parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario may receive 15 cm of snow
from this system. Some areas may receive higher amounts, depending
on the exact track and intensity of this low. Snow amounts will be
somewhat lower over the extreme southwest due to some freezing rain
and ice pellets. Extreme northern areas from Parry Sound to the
Renfrew area will be closer to the northern edge of the system and
may escape with less snow as well.
Brisk easterly winds will also result in blowing snow in exposed
areas Thursday night and Friday.
Travelling conditions will deteriorate and become hazardous in the
snow and blowing snow Thursday night and Friday. There may be a
significant impact on the commute to work on Friday morning in areas
of heavier snow.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track and intensity
of the low, which will affect where the heaviest snow falls. Some of
the latest computer models have been suggesting a more intense
version of this snowstorm is possible.
Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation. Watches and
warnings may be issued as this event draws closer.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
END/KUHN/OSPC
BTW model sees second storm up east coast. 10 day snow totals @RyanMaue new map colors Link
Special weather statement for:
Mainland Nova Scotia
Cape Breton.
High winds and potential heavy snowfalls for Saturday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Forecast guidance is indicating that a low pressure system near Cape
Hatteras on Friday will deepen rapidly as it sweeps up the Atlantic
coast to pass south of Nova Scotia on Saturday then move towards
Newfoundland on Sunday.
This storm will give very strong northeasterlies to the region and
periods of snow and blowing snow, spreading from west to east
beginning late Friday with the main snowfall expected Saturday and
possibly persisting into early Sunday. It is too early for accurate
estimates of snowfall amounts, but some guidance is indicating
amounts in excess of 40 centimetres are possible for parts of
Mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton.
Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
Would airports and highways close down? I'm pretty sure they would in the UK. Do workers still get paid if they can't get into work because of the snow?
Using a 10:1 ratio (do math if you wish) -- NYC, New England absolutely buried thru 60-hrs.
8 minRyan Maue@RyanMaue
Finally get to debut my new snow colorbar (made from scratch) b/c of the extreme amounts on the way: NCEP 4km 60-hrs
LinkLink
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF
30 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-WATERS....
Some pretty amazing statements coming out of the weather service.All I can say is they better get this right.
Please tell me how we are going to magically stop the warming cycle?
j/k
Google Earth
Also, seems that the flight paths for Winter Recon is password protected Link. Seems you can just follow it on Google Earth and it will then be known since they list the track plan number in the Recon Plan of the Day.
Two streams, pieces of energy need to come together. Simulated radar from NCEP NAM 4-km (not that bad of a model)
Link
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
Except that Al Gore didn't virtually create it. Global warming has been the subject of numerous studies over decades. PLEASE, check your facts.
Well, a plane just left Biloxi:
Jeez, the only thing you need to blame is a cost effective, reliable and sustainable solution. Right now, there is none. Fact!
Why don't ya'll find another weather blog to make derogatory remarks in then, if you are so offended and disgusted by the GW conversation here? You won't be changing anyone's opinion with your inflated opinions and bad science anyway.
18z run
12z run
I am OK.
Grothar?
I hate this winter. At least we have a Lombardi!
The renewable energy sources would be much more competitive, if the oil industry was not so heavily subsidized with tax payer's dollars - Fact!
Tomorrow is also my birthday, so that makes it even more special :)
HIGHLIGHTS...
***POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT***
***1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXCEPT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
MIXING***
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIALLY
HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE CONFIDENT IN MUCH OF THE REGION
RECEIVING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW. STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE...BUT CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE ALSO EXPECT A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE BULK
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH MID LEVEL WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND SREFS ARE
MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME. IF THIS OCCURS OUR
CURRENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE TOO HIGH IN THIS REGION...BUT WE
DID TRY TO SHOW LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. ALSO...THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND COLDER SO WE DID LEAN MORE IN
THAT DIRECTION. AS WE MENTIONED THOUGH...THIS IS WHERE OUR FORECAST
IS MOST UNCERTAIN.
11 pm run will decide
the future forecasts to this
poss high impact event
A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...
Who you calling Elderly?
I think the thing that scares is that during the Younger Dryas event of approx 12,000 ya, the climate of the Earth changed over a 10 YEAR PERIOD. If that is what we are facing, then anything is possible after that...from unendurable heat to a return of the ice. WE could see it, as well as our progeny. I say could, not will, but the die is cast.
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