Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels
During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.
Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.
Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.
Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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This storm is actually going to come about much differently than that storm did. The 2010 storm was supported by one powerful and well defined 500 mb disturbance that went negative once it entered the plains. This one is in a zonal pattern and will involve the phasing together of two different 500 mb disturbances. The phasing allows the now congealed disturbance to amplify and has a negative tilt because the more northerly disturbance caught up to the southerly one and phased with the southerly one further west. This one will also have a surface high to send cold air into the storm while the 2010 storm did not and was much warmer.
In other words, the 2010 storm was a classic bomb and this upcoming storm looks to be a classic blockbuster nor'easter.
I have long observed that it matters little what Dr. Maters has a blog topic. There will inevitably be someone that will complain about some aspect of it.
As for your "P.S.", there is so much that you say that is highly opinionated and is not associated with the relevant information.
Weather cycles happen all of the time. La Nina years, El Nino years and even the change of the seasons in the higher latitudes create weather cycles. You do not need to know the last one billion years of Earth's weather data to know this.
No one is "freaking out" about the "warm cycle" we are currently in. What does draw serious concern is the amount of warming that has occurred within such a short time frame and the strong indications that this warming trend will continue. What is even more concerning is that there is very strong, scientific evidence that it is mankind that is largely responsible for the current warming trend. What is even more concerning is that there has been unsettling success with the denial industry puppets in keeping any meaningful attempts at mitigation of the problem from being addressed beyond the "let's debate this whole thing again" nonsense. "Adaptation" will come, but with a large degree of uncertainty as to how far and as to how fast we can adapt.
".... start getting back to normal everyday weather events." LOL! What do you think we are doing? What is "normal" now is that we appear to have many more intense and enduring weather events to talk about now than what there were before. .... Welcome to this year's "normal" weather events.
"....I'm only suggesting that we stop hyper focusing on it. All the evidence shows us that if we do not "hyper" focus on this now then the time to focus on it at all may well escape us and we will just have to "deal with it" as best as we can. Instead of just dealing with whatever may come from climate change we should use our intelligence to best ward off the worst of what might come. .... When we throw our kids into the deep end of the pool and yell, "sink or swim", then we do so knowing that we are there to pull them out if they sink. When it comes to climate change, we throw our children into the deep end and then just walk away. Hopefully, they will swim.
PS - if you are being FORCED to read this blog then please send us a subtle signal and give us some idea of your physical location. We will contact the authorities and send help immediately!!
ECMWF Weeklies for Feb 11-17
ECMWF Weeklies for Feb 18-24
ECMWF Weeklies for Feb 25 - Mar 3
My February Outlook
For those who missed my reasoning behind these forecasted anomalies, the current and forecasted MJO phases, recent tank in SOI values, and mean height anomalies experienced in January as well as projected ensemble projected height anomalies for February made the basis of the forecast. Seasonal models and CPC outlooks were also referenced, though certainly not followed.
Both the extreme far left and far rights are idiots.
not true..Day after tomorrow did very well..
the day the earth stood still movie was nothing more but terrible acting and involved a story line of aliens who were for GW..LOL..
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SECOND WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES TO THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO SOME FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THESE SYSTEMS SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7 AT THIS TIME.
That is true and I agree with the removal of the cameras.
Now, if only we could vote out climate change as well?
Just look at your cell phone, internet, TV bill.
Check out the 1951 original, not the crappy 2008 with Keanu Reaves
If some people were as obsessed with learning about climate science and participating in academic discussion as they are obsessed with what you do, we might be able to actually have a conversation about it.
00z CMC-long range
12z CMC..this weekend.
later down the road
Miiiiight...wanna wait until AFTER the so called event happens.
tomorrow
day after tomorrow (Doom)
please...don't ruin my confidence.
;) that's like 3 days out during Rita in the Gulf, and I'm supposedly going to get blown away with a cat 5 or 4 cane that was forecasted to go south of me then in reality it turns into Lousiana.
Actually Post 146 opened the door , where the photo is of a church which has the signpost inferring the church of Neapolitan . So I think its a fair Question , How should he be addressed then ?
$71.4 billion in New York and New Jersey alone.
If the NAM or ECMWF verify, they could come very near reaching that in this storm alone.
I don't know if MA boy is here... look for nearly 2' in Boston and over 2' north of there, like in Danvers, Gloucester and in Newburyport... Massachusetts.
Loop Embedded
add 2 billion from Cuba = $73.4 billion... and whenever the rest of the US say, Bahamas, Haiti and Jamaica....
poor piggy bank
It's been a week since the tornado outbreak that left a north Georgia town damaged. See how they're doing:
Link
nobody is mentioning AGW but you.....
exactly
I've been here quite a long time and specific people going after Neapolitan has occurred on multiple occasions long before post 146. The fact is, it is a common tactic for some to attack Neapolitan instead of producing scientifically based arguments with valid citations. Like I said, why are some so obsessed with him? It's at best a tactic to not engage facts and at worse a sad obsession by posters who cannot form arguments to attempt to dispute those facts.
With all the talk of agenda, not only against the author of the blog (a respected scientist) but also against other posters who engage in proper discussion with cited data, it really begs the question as to why they are here in the first place if the author and the comments are so reprehensible and detestable.
This is sick, even by my warped weather standards the 11-16 ENSEMBLE.. in c Link
Just had a large--7.0 preliminary MM--and relatively shallow aftershock in the Santa Cruz Islands:False alarm; the alert email sent by the USGS was actually dated early this morning UTC.
Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time
6 Feb 2013 01:54:15 UTC
6 Feb 2013 12:54:15 near epicenter
5 Feb 2013 20:54:15 standard time in your timezone
Location 10.479S 165.772E
Depth 9 km
very serous situation developing
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...
CTZ002>004-070430-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.
&&
$$
Increased gas prices lead to more tax revenue, hurricane damage leads to a boom in construction and renovation and yet more sales tax revenue, droughts increase bottled water sales and taxes.... nope, climate change may mean more taxes but like all the events listed here NOBODY WANTS THEM and most are willing to work to avoid them. Just because it increases taxes doesn't mean it isn't real.
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