Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels
During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.
Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.
Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.
Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's pretty clear that you don't understand climate science at all, since you continually make statements that equate weather and climate which is incorrect. And then you proceed to build upon your incorrect assumptions until you reach conclusions that would make even an undergrad met laugh.
Weather and climate are different. Weather is what happens, while climate is what is LIKELY to happen. A single weather event says precisely squat about what direction the climate is heading and there are ZERO credible climate scientists who claim that any single weather event provides evidence for or against climate change. Climate scientists look at data on decadal scales.
Now, in respect to this potential snow storm, anyone with even a basic understanding of physics knows that warmer air has a greater capacity for moisture than cooler air. So if anything, more frequent large snowfalls are an indication for a warmer overall climate. That being said, in order to make any sort of claim one way or the other one would need to do a historical analysis on the frequency of such storms and determine the factors that go into creating them, and then determine if there is increase in frequency and if so what changes in those factors have occured in order to induce more frequent events. This is not a simple analysis.
It's easier if you just buy it at your local supermarket.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DENSE SEA FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A HALF MILE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AND SOME ISOLATED
TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
No, 120 degrees isn't going to happen here. But take absolutely no comfort in that fact.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS OF NEW
YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...1 INCH OR MORE AN HOUR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY POTENTIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVY SNOW MAY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES EAST OF THE WATCH AREA.
* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING
THE DAY INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT.
P.S.,
The earth has constantly gone through weather cycles, both warm and cold, throughout its history. So why is it that we constantly freak out over this warm cycle that we are currently in? Most weather records only date back to the 1800's. So who is to say that we didn't have a period on earth that was warmer than this one? You can't. So lets stop freaking out about Global Warming so much and start getting back to normal everyday weather events. I'm not saying never mention Global Warming, because it is an interesting topic, I'm only suggesting that we stop hyper focusing on it.
And guess where it's all going: to the Northeast. This is our future bomb, which should merge its mid-level disturbance with the clipper moving through Montana right now. Unfortunately for those who will be affected, this could be a Meteorological Masterpiece.
I remember the Great Lakes storm of 2010 (I was in it). Its uncommon to see an extratropicial cyclone this organized occur over land.
Something tells me this will be quite similar.
I can agree with this
No, actually, many scientists are saying the Earth is warming at a dangerous rate and if we don't try to stop it, there will be consequences.
But carry on with your nonsense.
978 mb 48-hour forecast pressure from ECMWF 12z for major Nor'easter / blizzard. Link
59.4 here now, Sun is out. Forecast 61....
I guess communion on 1st Sunday must be strawberry flavored koolaid..are those solar panel windows in your picture? Isn't a church a corporation that you seem to have the same issues with as far as Exxon or Mobile?..you might want to photoshop something else in relation to your cause..(very witty though..)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1011 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013
ILZ003-004-008-010>014-019>022-INZ001-002-062100-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-
KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...
DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OS WEGO...MORRIS...
JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO
1011 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013
...WINTERY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ON THURSDAY...
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINTRY MIX APPEARS THAT IT MAY QUICKLY CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
88...WITH AREAS SOUTH POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88. SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...NAMELY THURSDAY MORNING. PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THINGS MAY CHANGE.
$$
KJB
He never answered my Question , I would like to know should I address him as Fr , Pastor or Reverend !
As I am respectful to Members of the clergy !
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
515 AM PST WED FEB 6 2013
CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-071400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
515 AM PST WED FEB 6 2013
...COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY...SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE
MOISTURE...THE STRENGTH...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING...IT WILL
LIKELY TURN MUCH COLDER...WITH PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE UPPER DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FEET FRIDAY EVENING.
* RAINFALL...RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH NEAR THE
COAST TO AROUND ONE-HALF IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS.
* SNOWFALL...THREE TO SIX INCHES ABOVE 4000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF SIX TO NINE INCHES...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. LOCAL
SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS...MAINLY
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
* SNOW LEVEL...5000 TO 6000 FEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
BETWEEN 2500 TO 3000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOCAL
SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.
* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT... WITH SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL POSSIBLE. WATER SPOUTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS TO 65
MPH...MAINLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND ALONG AND NEAR DESERT MOUNTAIN
SLOPES.
* IMPACTS...THIS WEATHER COULD BE DEADLY FOR UNPREPARED CAMPERS OR
HIKERS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND
SNOWFALL COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO
IMPACT TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 15 THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND
INTERSTATE 8 THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.
$$
PALMER
Remember the movie "The day the earth stood still"
What did the alien say? you cannot stop it, the decision has been made. We've watched and waited, but it's time now. There's nothing you can do.
it was a flop at the box office..
Once the Nor'easter & following Midwest Storm exit, Arctic cold may descend on CONUS for Week 2. Not much would melt very fast.
I dont want to know..thats one church I wont be visiting..I get enough of that religion on this blog..
Who? Nea?
LOL I know what you mean ....
That's because it wasn't entertainment, it scared the hell outta everybody. Man can't control nature, and when Man is not in control Man is not interested. No benefit to Man means not in our interest.
Because no one likes preachy crap.
We just voted out our red light cameras, they're already coming down. How they are authorized in the first place without voter approval is beyond me, then we have a vote to take them down or not. (after they made their revenue)
This storm is actually going to come about much differently than that storm did. The 2010 storm was supported by one powerful and well defined 500 mb disturbance that went negative once it entered the plains. This one is in a zonal pattern and will involve the phasing together of two different 500 mb disturbances. The phasing allows the now congealed disturbance to amplify and has a negative tilt because the more northerly disturbance caught up to the southerly one and phased with the southerly one further west. This one will also have a surface high to send cold air into the storm while the 2010 storm did not and was much warmer.
In other words, the 2010 storm was a classic bomb and this upcoming storm looks to be a classic blockbuster nor'easter.
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