Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels
During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.
Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.
Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.
Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index
Thanks Largo !
Neapolitan: What year would it have been. I'm guessing course of the year means 2012, to be exact they posted changes to the index on March 2, 2012. When did the report come out, 2013. Which is exactly why I said they did not do their homework and got caught.
Your words:
You're certainly free to express such opinions no matter how dreadfully incorrect they are. Ain't America great? ;-)
Who is dreadfully incorrect again?
EDIT: That might be in centimeters.
So rather than shoveling Sunday morning ,I'll be tunneling.
I suspect thats meters not inches.
Good Morning Sensei....
It's simple. The Lords of anti-AGW will use any and every single weather event (big or small) as proof the globe is not warming, when in fact it may be entirely true humans are having an impact on it
In other words both sides spin every event both ways.
So just give it up.
T-42DAYS TILL SPRING
SPRING BEGINS 702AM EDT MARCH 20 2013
If Im going to be buried in snow,I don't want to get buried by a fish.
uhhh... I'd hope not.... is this another ice age?
I suspect thats meters not inches.
DOOM
Three weeks ago--on January 15--NOAA stated in its annual global climate report that 2012 was the 10th warmest year on record. (Dr. Masters wrote about it here.). NOAA also stated that 2012 was the warmest La Nina year on record. The list of La Nina years used as a basis for that statement was from the CPC's ONI dataset, which used a 1971-2000 base period.
With me so far? Good.
Now, during the course of the year (2012), the CPC introduced a different ONI dataset using different base periods, with the most recent years in the dataset using the 1981-2010 base period. They did this because the most recent base period--1981-2010, as opposed to 1971-2000--allowed scientists to better determine whether to classify any particular year as a La Nina.
Still with me? Almost done.
With the introduction of the new dataset using the 1981-2010 base period, 2006 and 2009 were reclassified as La Nina years, where previously they'd been considered neutral. Since both those years were slightly warmer than 2012, they moved into first and second place, and knocked 2012 down to third. And the NOAA just this week revised the January 15 report to reflect these changes.
So, again: nothing evil, nothing manipulative; no lies, no deceit, no trickery. No one was "caught". This is yet another example of scientists doing their job by constantly reviewing their observations, and making corrections when warranted.
Not that I expect any fossil fuel devotees to understand... ;-)
You know there is big trouble in the weather if you look at models and it looks like (you) drew them
Yeah that's true, Lol. If some of my model prediction wishes came true......we'd have a problem.
Good Morning, Grasshopper.
rat spit.......ewwwwwwwwwwww
maybe but the nam had a band of 48"+ and large areas of 36" plus.
if its centimeters that only shows 33inches so I dont think that's right.
The NAM just went crazy.
Not all researchers agree with the rat hypothesis, however. Peter Brown, a paleoanthropologist from the University of New England in Australia, thinks the emergence of tooth decay relates to sugar in the human diet. “You need to think about the distribution of rats and caries, both in terms of geography and through time,” Brown says. “In Australia caries came with the introduction of sugar and flour to Aboriginal communities. In Japan, during the Edo period, the samurai class had relatively poor oral health (sugar and refined carbohydrates) but the common people had a very low caries incidence (no access to sugar or refined carbohydrates)—nothing to do with rats.”
That sounds somewhat suspicious...
People seem to be having such a hard time understanding baselines and anomalies. Of course, scientists understand that using anomalies from a baseline can be a nice way to display data with seasonal effects or other irrelevant effects reduced, but with minimal processing of the data. To some that do no understand anomalies, somehow they become sinister or suspicious.
Of course anomalies are very tied to their baseline - if the baseline changes or is updated, the anomalies also must be updated. If the baseline is "all La Nina years," and it is determined that the classification of La Nina years should be changed, it also changes the anomalies calculated from that baseline. However, the raw values of the data set do not change in any way, and in most cases, trends do not change.
Don't like the look of that Largo. Notice Southwest Florida is dry :(
lol,yeh,you think,I meant to say centimeters.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1137 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...STRONG COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE STARTING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
.LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE
FRIDAY...THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST FROM THERE ON SATURDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST. THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DETERMINE EXACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
GREATER THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
Sounds like its going to be some storm ...
Sugar Cane and Sugar Beets....
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
A tale of two lows giving significant snowfall Thursday into Friday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An Alberta clipper will combine with a Texas low to bring a
significant snowfall to most of Southern Ontario. Light snow will
begin from west to east Thursday with heavier snow Thursday night
into Friday.
Current indications are that the highest snow amounts will occur
north of a line from Grand Bend to Hamilton to Kingston. General snow
amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible with this event.
Lower snow amounts are expected to the south of this line with 5 to
10 cm possible. There is also a risk of freezing rain over the
Windsor to Chatham areas Thursday evening.
Winter driving conditions will likely deteriorate significantly
Thursday night.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact tracks of both
Lows, which will affect the timing and snow amounts for each region.
Environment Canada is monitoring this system closely and will issue
further statements as necessary.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
END/KUHN/OSPC
No kidding! I'm sitting at a 20% chance. I say more like 0%
That depends entirely on your units and period of time analyzed. If you use 1980 as the start point and degrees celsius, the warming has been about 0.3-0.4C (~0.5-0.7F). It exceeds 1.0F when using longer time periods and the Fahrenheit scale.
Not entirely separate, but yes, different. However, because climate is the average of long duration weather events, they become more closely tied as the time period increases.
Probably won't be a common occurrence even with substantial warming... at least for Florida. Temperate areas will see more intense warming than areas that typically are more moist, as moist air takes more heat energy to warm than dry air. Now the southern Great Plains... that might be a different story.
Sounds like the shield from last dry season is back up in Tampa and Fort Myers.
It's pretty clear that you don't understand climate science at all, since you continually make statements that equate weather and climate which is incorrect. And then you proceed to build upon your incorrect assumptions until you reach conclusions that would make even an undergrad met laugh.
Weather and climate are different. Weather is what happens, while climate is what is LIKELY to happen. A single weather event says precisely squat about what direction the climate is heading and there are ZERO credible climate scientists who claim that any single weather event provides evidence for or against climate change. Climate scientists look at data on decadal scales.
Now, in respect to this potential snow storm, anyone with even a basic understanding of physics knows that warmer air has a greater capacity for moisture than cooler air. So if anything, more frequent large snowfalls are an indication for a warmer overall climate. That being said, in order to make any sort of claim one way or the other one would need to do a historical analysis on the frequency of such storms and determine the factors that go into creating them, and then determine if there is increase in frequency and if so what changes in those factors have occured in order to induce more frequent events. This is not a simple analysis.
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index