Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on February 06, 2013

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During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.


Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.


Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.


Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.


Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

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633. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
at least this is definitely for sure

probability for 4 inches



Thats alot different to 12+ inches..
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Good Morning.

In North Florida, I noticed the Dogwoods coming into full bloom this morning. Redbuds have been out for a week, maple have made seeds and are dropping them, and Azaleas are on their way out after a great showing. The shocker is that the Azalea festival is four Saturdays away! I doubt there will be many left.
Happy New Year of the Snake! This one is tricky since we typically get at least two weeks of cold and have barely had two frosty mornings so far. Mid to late February is when we get socked but so far nothing to shake a stick at. I feel silly brining in plants when it is in the mid 70's outside.
Did the cold mizer head somewhere for a vacation this year?

Oh, I see he did.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
at least this is definitely for sure

probability for 4 inches

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I wish it was colder in NC. We could've gotten a large amount of snow out of this low.
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Link

1888 blizzard
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Headline from the National Weather Service in Tauton, MA:

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...


"Potentially historic" just like I said earlier...
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625. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Here is my concern..

My house sits on a hill, from there Im able to see most of my neighborhood, and since I live on a second floor...plus there is a huge power pole next to one of my two windows....

I think I have to go somewhere


Follow your NWS advisories..

I was looking at NCEP Precipitation and wind charts Yes there will be snow and wind but not so sure that its as bad as being conveyed ...

Model Analysis and Guidance 06Z Precipitation

Model Analysis and Guidance 06z 200_wnd_ht
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Headline from the National Weather Service in Tauton, MA:

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
000
FXUS62 KTAE 071121
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
621 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
The large scale split flow longwave pattern commences unamplified
especially east of MS River with nearly zonal flow. However a low
amplitude shortwave was moving across LA/MS. H3 height analysis
show that local area will soon become increasingly under influence
of exit region of upper jet aiding in upward vertical motion. At
the surface, a low was deepening low near LA/MS coast with warm
front extending east, and cold front extending SWWD into TX. Weak
high pressure with cold wedge extends down the Atlantic seaboard.

During today, models are in good agreement. The shortwave will
quickly translate ENE from Cntrl Gulf to NE Gulf region by late aftn
then towards coastal Carolina tonight. Associated low will move E/NE
into the Panhandle this aftn then NEWD through SW GA late this aftn.
It will be accompanied initially by isentropic lift, increasing
cloud cover and light rain to start the day, then by numerous
showers and thunderstorms. As low lifts NEWD, warm front will lift
to coast by mid morning then NEWD to FL/GA border by early aftn,
then to Nrn tier GA counties by late aftn with trailing cold front
dragged across during early to late eve. However by then, most of
the energy will have evacuated with the low.

Model QPF continues to show the heaviest rains mainly tandem with
the low induced rainbands, that is a swath from Panhandle waters
early then expanding NEWD later in the day to our northern tier
Georgia zones with amounts in the 1.5" inch range. Will include
mention of heavy rain for those zones. The system should move fast
enough to prevent flooding concerns, but minor localized street
and urban flooding is possible especially in any training echoes.
As the shortwave and surface low lift to the northeast off the
mid-Atlantic coast tonight, rain will gradually end from west to
east.

POPs closely follow local CAM, WRF and local confidence tool. Will
continue with TRW+ with gusty winds across the Panhandle thru NE
tier GA counties. Unless SPC places us in watch will not introduce
any stronger wording. Temps tricky as determined by depth of warm
sector and clouds. Will go with highs mid 60s SE AL to mid 70s SE
Big Bend. Lows upper 40s north to mid to upper 50s south with the
potential for ample fog which may be dense.

The main forecast question is the severe weather potential. The
position of the surface low will determine how much of our CWA
gets placed inside the warm sector and ultimately the potential
for a few strong to severe storms. For now we think the threat
will mainly be confined to a narrow corridor, south of I-10 as
defined by a line from Defuniak Springs thru Blountstown to
Alligator Point from 18z-00z which includes Panama City and
Apalachicola. Increasing wind fields and strong shear favor some
potential for damaging winds. Also can`t discount rotating storms
and perhaps an isold tornado. Latest CAM guidance shows the
possibility of a few supercells developing and moving across the
coastal waters and some of our coastal Florida zones. Instabilities
drop off considerably as you move inland and to the east or
closer to cold wedge.


I should see some nice action out of this fast moving low later today :)

The good amount of lift and dynamics present should support a few stronger storms, along with much needed rain!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7553


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15644
Good morning folks

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO
FREEZING RAIN.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES IS FORECAST.

WIZ058>060-064>066-070>072-071815-
/O.EXT.KMKX.WS.W.0002.130207T1600Z-130208T0600Z/
DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWA UKEE-WALWORTH-
RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...WEST BEND...
PORT WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...
BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA
402 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT RAIN...AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN FALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND RAPID
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

&&

$$


------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yes Sandy was bad... but no I was not here. I left to Massachusetts and came back two days after


ahh, I see said the blind man. :)
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Didn't you fare well during Sandy.. I though you posted some pictures and such. Will this be more dangerous to you than Sandy?


Yes Sandy was bad... but no I was not here. I left to Massachusetts and came back two days after
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:


"Potentially historic" is a good word to use. I'm still worry that this event will end up being busted. Storm like this take a near perfect setup for that to occurs.


I think that is slipping out of probability... but there is a chance for it too, I watched TWC last night and this guy asked Cantore, who was giving the update, if there was any chance for that not to happen, Cantore said there is always a chance, but in this case it's becoming much less likely.

I added the word "potentially" to bring it down a little bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Here is my concern..

My house sits on a hill, from there Im able to see most of my neighborhood, and since I live on a second floor...plus there is a huge power pole next to one of my two windows....

I think I have to go somewhere


Didn't you fare well during Sandy.. I though you posted some pictures and such. Will this be more dangerous to you than Sandy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is my concern..

My house sits on a hill, from there Im able to see most of my neighborhood, and since I live on a second floor...plus there is a huge power pole next to one of my two windows....

I think I have to go somewhere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning,

I would not be surprised if some of these people who constantly argue against each other about climate change/GW is actually one person...sad day when you have to create your own nemesis just so you can bring up the topic.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15644
Ummm... Whoa!!!

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thank you...that is why I'm calling this storm for being potentially historic...


"Potentially historic" is a good word to use. I'm still worry that this event will end up being busted. Storm like this take a near perfect setup for that to occurs.
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Quoting stormchaser43:
Try again, Keeper.



nah i like this place

yer not worth it TB
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Actually, Boston rarely see 2 feet of snow, as you'll noticed below.



Also, this storm is supposedly to dump up to 30" to 36" of snow. That's historic.


thank you...that is why I'm calling this storm for being potentially historic...
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From the NWS is Gary/Portland



Over two feet in southern New Hampshire and northeast Mass
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Quoting stormchaser43:
And sure enough the climate change alarmists will be on the very next day vehemently proclaiming that this system was caused by AGW. Climate Change is at full work here. The POUNDING away at the agenda will continue...



seems the only one doing the pounding is you
maybe ya spend too much time alone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Quoting stormchaser43:
And sure enough the climate change alarmists will be on the very next day vehemently proclaiming that this system was caused by AGW. Climate Change is at full work here. The POUNDING away at the agenda will continue...

Weren't you just complaining yesterday about people constantly mentioning AGW on the blog? And now you're bringing it up when nobody has said anything about it?

Wtf?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting stormchaser43:

Not historic. Those areas have seen 2 feet of snow from one storm numerous times. Quit hyping all of you.
Actually, Boston rarely see 2 feet of snow, as you'll noticed below.



Also, this storm is supposedly to dump up to 30" to 36" of snow. That's historic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser43:

Not historic. Those areas have seen 2 feet of snow from one storm numerous times. Quit hyping all of you.


I still think it will be... wait for snow totals... I'll report mine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everything starts tonight across my area..

Winds up to 55 mph
Snowfall: up to 15"...could even go up if blizzard watches are issued to nearly 2 FEET
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Special weather statement for:
Mainland Nova Scotia
Cape Breton.

Significant snowfall and strong winds forecast for Saturday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will intensify
as it passes near Cape Hatteras on Friday and then will track south
of Nova Scotia Saturday night.

This system will give snow at times heavy, strong northeast winds and
blowing snow to Nova Scotia Friday night and Saturday.
These conditions will persist Saturday night and into Sunday morning
for Cape Breton and Eastern Nova Scotia. While it is too early to
give a precise estimate of snowfall potential, some guidance is
indicating amounts in excess of 30 centimetres are possible for parts
of Nova Scotia.

Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Special weather statement for:
New Brunswick.

Heavy snow...Strong northeast winds and blowing snow for
Saturday and into Sunday mainly for Southern New Brunswick.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will intensify
as it passes near Cape Hatteras on Friday and then will track south
of Nova Scotia Saturday night.

This system will give snow at times heavy, strong northeast winds and
blowing snow for portions of Southern New Brunswick. It should start
Friday night and continue through Saturday. While it is still too
early to give a precise estimate of snowfall potential, some guidance
is indicating amounts of 15 to 30 centimetres over Southern New
Brunswick.

Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Special weather statement for:
Metro Montréal - Laval
Vaudreuil - Soulanges - Huntingdon
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe
Lanaudière
Lachute - Saint-Jérôme
Eastern Townships.

Snow to end the week.


------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system from Texas will move to lie near Lake Erie
Friday morning and then merge with an intense low pressure system
developing over the American seaboard. Snow associated with this
system will begin this evening over Southern Quebec and will continue
Friday. A more intense band of snow could affect some areas of
Southwestern Quebec and the Eastern Townships.



The different guidance models do not agree upon the expected snowfall
amounts but the trend shows near 15 centimetres could fall over these
areas and even 20 centimetres near the American Border.



Moderate northeast winds will also accompany this system beginning on
Friday evening along the St Lawrence Valley. With the expected
snowfalls, these winds could significantly reduce visibilities in
blowing snow.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.



End

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Absolutely historic

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slight risk flag day 3

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Odd that the front page of the online NY Times doesn't have a story on this coming 'Snowmageddon'. Can't even see a link to 'weather' on it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think some realize just how severe this system will be.

Here's a post from Michael Phelps (Storm Chaser):
Note: He's typically pessimistic about these kinds of things.

"The Great Blizzard of 2013 is on the way for New England and parts of the Canadian Maritimes. It is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, if not THE worse ever, and that is really saying something given the history of that region. It's intensity will be beyond the scope of anything anyone there has ever experienced, so people will be prone to make the wrong choices regarding it. Do not take this storm lightly. It is NOT just another snowstorm. The snow will come on so suddenly, and fall so heavily that it will cripple many areas within an hour or two. Snow plows will be ineffective, and emergency personnel will not be able to respond to emergencies for many hours during the height of the storm. Power outages will be widespread and could last days with bitterly cold air coming in behind the storm. Some areas will see more than 3 feet of snow with drifts up to 20 feet, so don't even try to shovel this snow. Plan on being trapped in your home or business for several days. The snow starts in the Northeast and New England Friday morning and ends Saturday morning, while the Canadian Maritimes get blasted on Saturday and Saturday night. PREPARE NOW!"


Friends and family up there are taking it seriously. If you grew up with blizzards, you know what they are like. I've talked with a couple and they already have their food, water and wood set and ready to go. Those without fireplaces are moving in today or tonight with friends or family who do.
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I got rain yesterday in WPB!:)
Quoting LargoFl:
south florida also,warm and probably dry....
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Another day without outside recess due to the 'lakes' still on the playground.

Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin all! Big snow up the NE! Gonna be a big pain for some and happy day for others!

61.5F and rainy on da bayou Grande!


Hope your vacation was a lot of fun for you. Good to have you back!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think some realize just how severe this system will be.

Here's a post from Michael Phelps (Storm Chaser):
Note: He's typically pessimistic about these kinds of things.

"The Great Blizzard of 2013 is on the way for New England and parts of the Canadian Maritimes. It is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, if not THE worse ever, and that is really saying something given the history of that region. It's intensity will be beyond the scope of anything anyone there has ever experienced, so people will be prone to make the wrong choices regarding it. Do not take this storm lightly. It is NOT just another snowstorm. The snow will come on so suddenly, and fall so heavily that it will cripple many areas within an hour or two. Snow plows will be ineffective, and emergency personnel will not be able to respond to emergencies for many hours during the height of the storm. Power outages will be widespread and could last days with bitterly cold air coming in behind the storm. Some areas will see more than 3 feet of snow with drifts up to 20 feet, so don't even try to shovel this snow. Plan on being trapped in your home or business for several days. The snow starts in the Northeast and New England Friday morning and ends Saturday morning, while the Canadian Maritimes get blasted on Saturday and Saturday night. PREPARE NOW!"
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Good evening Aussie.. your dinner sounded delicious

It was mate! I'm still full from it and dinner was 3hrs ago. I'll probably have to go donate blood tomorrow to lower my iron levels but it was worth it.

Looks like the UK is in for some more snow on Sunday and Monday.



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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Starting this Monday is the Westminster Dog Show in Madison Square Garden in NYC. I have so many friends going. (I show dogs) Most are going Friday as there are breed Specialties on the weekend. This storm is going to impact the shows. I hope my friends who are driving are really considering the roads carefully before they leave.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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