Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels
During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.
Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.
Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.
Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Jeff Masters
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...
CTZ010>012-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.
* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN SOME TREE
LIMBS... AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
Hey It might even break the Tampa Shield and you might get some rain!!
Morning Folks!!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...
CTZ002>004-071730-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T2100Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WATCH...IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS UPGRADED A WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.
&&
$$
Winter storm warning
Snowfall warning for
City of Toronto
Significant snowfall of 15 to 25 cm tonight and Friday.
A low will track northeast from Texas to Illinois today then track just south of Lake Erie on Friday.
Snow associated with a trough ahead of this system will start spreading into Southern Ontario from Michigan and Lake Huron today with a couple cm of snow possible by this evening in a swath of regions extending from Lake Huron to Western Lake Ontario.
This low will intensify into a winter storm as it approaches Southern Ontario, with an expanding area of heavy snow expected to move into most of Southern Ontario this evening and parts of Eastern Ontario overnight. The heaviest snow will occur during the Friday morning rush hour along the highway 401 corridor from London to the Greater Toronto area and through the Golden Horseshoe. The snow, heavy at times is expected to continue well into Friday as the strong system passes just south of the Great Lakes. Brisk northeasterly winds will also result in local blowing snow in many areas tonight and Friday.
Many parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario may receive 15 cm to 25 cm of snow from this storm before it ends Friday night. Total snowfall amounts will be lower over areas to the north of Lake Erie due to warmer temperatures giving rain or wet snow at times. The winter storm watch has thus been ended for these regions.
Areas along the western shore of Lake Ontario may receive near 25 cm of snow due to enhancement in the cold easterly flow off of Lake Ontario. Additionally these winds will result in blowing snow which may produce prolonged periods of reduced visibilities. A winter storm warning is thus in effect for these regions.
Travelling conditions will deteriorate and become hazardous in the snow and blowing snow tonight and Friday. There may be a significant impact on the commute to work on Friday morning and possibly Friday afternoon in heavy snow and blowing snow.
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TONIGHT. A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON FRIDAY FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT...INCLUDING THE INLETS...THE
TIDAL PATUXENT RIVER...AND THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER. GALE
WARNINGS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MINOR INUNDATION OF SENSITIVE LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...
CTZ005-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND STRONG
WINDS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 16 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN
SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
Good Evening. I'll add some black pudding and some haggis with a side of French toast to the side board. I could also put a nice big 500grm streak and beef and garlic sausages with fried onions, that's what I had for dinner tonight.
HIGH WIND ADV/HEAVY SNOWFALL WARNING
XX/XX/XXL
The '78 blizzard was something else. Yesterday morning I posted a personal funny story from it. But people were caught without medicine when it took so long to dig out. I had friends who used their snowmobiles and worked with authorities to take medicine to people who had ran out. It was a dangerous storm and it looks like this one will be as well. People up there tend to treat blizzards like we do hurricanes in the south. (I grew up in the Catskills.) Wishing everyone involved with this storm stays safe. If friends or family post pictures, I'll repost them here.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
517 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013
...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING HANCOCK
COUNTY...HARRISON COUNTY...
AT 514 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DIAMONDHEAD TO WAVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PASS CHRISTIAN...LYMAN...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT AIRPORT...GULFPORT AND
BILOXI
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
MJH
Freezing rain advisory issued for #Chicago for this morning. Slick travel possible
Good evening Aussie.. your dinner sounded delicious
61.5F and rainy on da bayou Grande!
It was mate! I'm still full from it and dinner was 3hrs ago. I'll probably have to go donate blood tomorrow to lower my iron levels but it was worth it.
Looks like the UK is in for some more snow on Sunday and Monday.
Here's a post from Michael Phelps (Storm Chaser):
Note: He's typically pessimistic about these kinds of things.
"The Great Blizzard of 2013 is on the way for New England and parts of the Canadian Maritimes. It is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, if not THE worse ever, and that is really saying something given the history of that region. It's intensity will be beyond the scope of anything anyone there has ever experienced, so people will be prone to make the wrong choices regarding it. Do not take this storm lightly. It is NOT just another snowstorm. The snow will come on so suddenly, and fall so heavily that it will cripple many areas within an hour or two. Snow plows will be ineffective, and emergency personnel will not be able to respond to emergencies for many hours during the height of the storm. Power outages will be widespread and could last days with bitterly cold air coming in behind the storm. Some areas will see more than 3 feet of snow with drifts up to 20 feet, so don't even try to shovel this snow. Plan on being trapped in your home or business for several days. The snow starts in the Northeast and New England Friday morning and ends Saturday morning, while the Canadian Maritimes get blasted on Saturday and Saturday night. PREPARE NOW!"
Hope your vacation was a lot of fun for you. Good to have you back!
Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday!
Friends and family up there are taking it seriously. If you grew up with blizzards, you know what they are like. I've talked with a couple and they already have their food, water and wood set and ready to go. Those without fireplaces are moving in today or tonight with friends or family who do.
Metro Montréal - Laval
Vaudreuil - Soulanges - Huntingdon
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe
Lanaudière
Lachute - Saint-Jérôme
Eastern Townships.
Snow to end the week.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system from Texas will move to lie near Lake Erie
Friday morning and then merge with an intense low pressure system
developing over the American seaboard. Snow associated with this
system will begin this evening over Southern Quebec and will continue
Friday. A more intense band of snow could affect some areas of
Southwestern Quebec and the Eastern Townships.
The different guidance models do not agree upon the expected snowfall
amounts but the trend shows near 15 centimetres could fall over these
areas and even 20 centimetres near the American Border.
Moderate northeast winds will also accompany this system beginning on
Friday evening along the St Lawrence Valley. With the expected
snowfalls, these winds could significantly reduce visibilities in
blowing snow.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
End
New Brunswick.
Heavy snow...Strong northeast winds and blowing snow for
Saturday and into Sunday mainly for Southern New Brunswick.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will intensify
as it passes near Cape Hatteras on Friday and then will track south
of Nova Scotia Saturday night.
This system will give snow at times heavy, strong northeast winds and
blowing snow for portions of Southern New Brunswick. It should start
Friday night and continue through Saturday. While it is still too
early to give a precise estimate of snowfall potential, some guidance
is indicating amounts of 15 to 30 centimetres over Southern New
Brunswick.
Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
Mainland Nova Scotia
Cape Breton.
Significant snowfall and strong winds forecast for Saturday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will intensify
as it passes near Cape Hatteras on Friday and then will track south
of Nova Scotia Saturday night.
This system will give snow at times heavy, strong northeast winds and
blowing snow to Nova Scotia Friday night and Saturday.
These conditions will persist Saturday night and into Sunday morning
for Cape Breton and Eastern Nova Scotia. While it is too early to
give a precise estimate of snowfall potential, some guidance is
indicating amounts in excess of 30 centimetres are possible for parts
of Nova Scotia.
Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
Winds up to 55 mph
Snowfall: up to 15"...could even go up if blizzard watches are issued to nearly 2 FEET
Viewing: 551 - 601
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