Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on February 06, 2013

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During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.


Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.


Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.


Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.


Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

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anyone Like redfish?..this caught down by ft meyers....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting RitaEvac:


Remember the movie "The day the earth stood still"
What did the alien say? you cannot stop it, the decision has been made. We've watched and waited, but it's time now. There's nothing you can do.


it was a flop at the box office..
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, actually, many scientists are saying the Earth is warming at a dangerous rate and if we don't try to stop it, there will be consequences.

But carry on with your nonsense.


Remember the movie "The day the earth stood still"
What did the alien say? you cannot stop it, the decision has been made. We've watched and waited, but it's time now. There's nothing you can do.
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PedleyCA..heed your local warnings,stay safe........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
515 AM PST WED FEB 6 2013

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-071400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
515 AM PST WED FEB 6 2013

...COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY...SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE
MOISTURE...THE STRENGTH...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING...IT WILL
LIKELY TURN MUCH COLDER...WITH PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE UPPER DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FEET FRIDAY EVENING.

* RAINFALL...RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH NEAR THE
COAST TO AROUND ONE-HALF IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS.

* SNOWFALL...THREE TO SIX INCHES ABOVE 4000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF SIX TO NINE INCHES...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. LOCAL
SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS...MAINLY
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

* SNOW LEVEL...5000 TO 6000 FEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
BETWEEN 2500 TO 3000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOCAL
SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT... WITH SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL POSSIBLE. WATER SPOUTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS TO 65
MPH...MAINLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND ALONG AND NEAR DESERT MOUNTAIN
SLOPES.

* IMPACTS...THIS WEATHER COULD BE DEADLY FOR UNPREPARED CAMPERS OR
HIKERS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND
SNOWFALL COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO
IMPACT TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 15 THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND
INTERSTATE 8 THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

$$

PALMER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
228. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


I guess communion on 1st Sunday must be strawberry flavored koolaid..are those solar panel windows in your picture? Isn't a church a corporation that you seem to have the same issues with as far as Exxon or Mobile?..you might want to photoshop something else in relation to your cause..(very witty though..)


He never answered my Question , I would like to know should I address him as Fr , Pastor or Reverend !
As I am respectful to Members of the clergy !
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1011 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

ILZ003-004-008-010>014-019>022-INZ001-002-062100-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-
KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...
DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OS WEGO...MORRIS...
JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO
1011 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTERY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ON THURSDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINTRY MIX APPEARS THAT IT MAY QUICKLY CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
88...WITH AREAS SOUTH POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88. SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...NAMELY THURSDAY MORNING. PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THINGS MAY CHANGE.

$$

KJB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
I made this digital painting of a tornado in Photoshop. :)

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wow LOOK at that surge of gulf moisture headed north..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting Neapolitan:
Snow


I guess communion on 1st Sunday must be strawberry flavored koolaid..are those solar panel windows in your picture? Isn't a church a corporation that you seem to have the same issues with as far as Exxon or Mobile?..you might want to photoshop something else in relation to your cause..(very witty though..)
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Sheep

59.4 here now, Sun is out. Forecast 61....
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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

978 mb 48-hour forecast pressure from ECMWF 12z for major Nor'easter / blizzard. Link
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Quoting stormchaser43:
Um. Excuse me. If we were not pounding away at the Global Warming Agenda and movement that Al Gore virtually created and definitely spearheaded, where would the fun be?

You are right. We have been much warmer in the past. The current cycle we are in is likely nothing more than what we have seen in the past. At least that's what many scientists are saying.

But we'll let the climate fearing alarmists continue to pound away at the agenda. We'll just sit back and laugh all the while...

No, actually, many scientists are saying the Earth is warming at a dangerous rate and if we don't try to stop it, there will be consequences.

But carry on with your nonsense.
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Quoting stormchaser43:
Um. Excuse me. If we were not pounding away at the Global Warming Agenda and movement that Al Gore virtually created and definitely spearheaded, where would the fun be?

You are right. We have been much warmer in the past. The current cycle we are in is likely nothing more than what we have seen in the past. At least that's what many scientists are saying.

But we'll let the climate fearing alarmists continue to pound away at the agenda. We'll just sit back and laugh all the while...


I can agree with this
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

And guess where it's all going: to the Northeast. This is our future bomb, which should merge its mid-level disturbance with the clipper moving through Montana right now. Unfortunately for those who will be affected, this could be a Meteorological Masterpiece.



I remember the Great Lakes storm of 2010 (I was in it). Its uncommon to see an extratropicial cyclone this organized occur over land.



Something tells me this will be quite similar.
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Florida State Fair starts tomorrow over in Tampa..i had alot of fun in one a couple of years ago..looks like the weather will be nice for it this time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting 1900hurricane:

And guess where it's all going: to the Northeast. This is our future bomb, which should merge its mid-level disturbance with the clipper moving through Montana right now. Unfortunately for those who will be affected, this could be a Meteorological Masterpiece.

yes sure is alot of gulf moisture headed northward..maybe thats why they are hinting at snowfall amounts higher than 9 inches
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting LargoFl:
wow Texas getting Much Needed Rain huh............

And guess where it's all going: to the Northeast. This is our future bomb, which should merge its mid-level disturbance with the clipper moving through Montana right now. Unfortunately for those who will be affected, this could be a Meteorological Masterpiece.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting LargoFl:
yes its an interesting debate among scientists researching it....i have a question tho...where exactly..does sugar come from?
Increased simple carbohydrate consumption from refined grains such as flour or white rice, as opposed to unrefined grains, nuts, and meat consistent with the diet of hunter-gatherers.
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I really hate to be rude, but why on earth is Dr. Masters only talking about the low levels of Lake Michigan and Huron. There was a major earthquake/tsunami in the Pacific Ocean last night, which caused a lot of damage, and there is a major WINTER storm that could potentially impact the North East this weekend. He could have mentioned both of these events in his article, along with the low lake levels. I understand that the low levels of water on the lake can majorly impact the shipping industry and cause multiple other problems, for the Great Lake community; but I don't think it should be the only topic of his article. He could have at least mentioned the other events, along with the low lake levels. Just my opinion though.

P.S.,
The earth has constantly gone through weather cycles, both warm and cold, throughout its history. So why is it that we constantly freak out over this warm cycle that we are currently in? Most weather records only date back to the 1800's. So who is to say that we didn't have a period on earth that was warmer than this one? You can't. So lets stop freaking out about Global Warming so much and start getting back to normal everyday weather events. I'm not saying never mention Global Warming, because it is an interesting topic, I'm only suggesting that we stop hyper focusing on it.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
ah the Blog has come alive again..its nice to see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS OF NEW
YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...1 INCH OR MORE AN HOUR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY POTENTIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVY SNOW MAY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES EAST OF THE WATCH AREA.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING
THE DAY INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting LargoFl:
I think us folks in Florida hope your right on that one..for us the very humid 90's are quiet enough to make us miserable in summer..i cannot imagine it being 110 or higher long term..we'd wilt away lol
Remember, though, sea level rise aside--and that's an extremely urgent issue for Florida--it needn't get anywhere near 120 or even 110 to cause massive changes to the state. Consider what happens to the state's lucrative tourist industry when Disney World swelters at 100 degrees for weeks at a time. Ask yourself who's going to bother visiting here when they can avoid most of the cold and snow just by staying at their northern home. Question whether there'll be much sport fishing when the Gulf is a warm, tepid, acidified, and somewhat lifeless pool. What will happen when South Florida's growing fields are too hot for produce, or when Central Florida's copious citrus groves are turned to barren, dessicated sand hills?

No, 120 degrees isn't going to happen here. But take absolutely no comfort in that fact.
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whew many many hours of snowfall up here......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Patrap is going to get rain from this also....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
gee 3-4 inches might create some streeet flooding...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE SEA FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A HALF MILE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AND SOME ISOLATED
TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Sugar Cane and Sugar Beets....


It's easier if you just buy it at your local supermarket.
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wow Texas getting Much Needed Rain huh............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
,
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting stormchaser43:
What a snow event. 36 inches as predicted by the NAM. If this really does come true, I think it is safe to say we can all throw out the climate change goofiness. Okay, the hardcore will still be relentlessly clinging on to AGWT, but realistically it's probably safe to say that Global Warming / Climate Change is a theory that has not ever come true.



It's pretty clear that you don't understand climate science at all, since you continually make statements that equate weather and climate which is incorrect. And then you proceed to build upon your incorrect assumptions until you reach conclusions that would make even an undergrad met laugh.

Weather and climate are different. Weather is what happens, while climate is what is LIKELY to happen. A single weather event says precisely squat about what direction the climate is heading and there are ZERO credible climate scientists who claim that any single weather event provides evidence for or against climate change. Climate scientists look at data on decadal scales.

Now, in respect to this potential snow storm, anyone with even a basic understanding of physics knows that warmer air has a greater capacity for moisture than cooler air. So if anything, more frequent large snowfalls are an indication for a warmer overall climate. That being said, in order to make any sort of claim one way or the other one would need to do a historical analysis on the frequency of such storms and determine the factors that go into creating them, and then determine if there is increase in frequency and if so what changes in those factors have occured in order to induce more frequent events. This is not a simple analysis.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

That depends entirely on your units and period of time analyzed. If you use 1980 as the start point and degrees celsius, the warming has been about 0.3-0.4C (~0.5-0.7F). It exceeds 1.0F when using longer time periods and the Fahrenheit scale.

Not entirely separate, but yes, different. However, because climate is the average of long duration weather events, they become more closely tied as the time period increases.

Probably won't be a common occurrence even with substantial warming... at least for Florida. Temperate areas will see more intense warming than areas that typically are more moist, as moist air takes more heat energy to warm than dry air. Now the southern Great Plains... that might be a different story.
I think us folks in Florida hope your right on that one..for us the very humid 90's are quiet enough to make us miserable in summer..i cannot imagine it being 110 or higher long term..we'd wilt away lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
199. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes my local met gives my area a very slim 30% chance, he doesnt think tampa southward will be affected..gee i sure could use some around my area..


Sounds like the shield from last dry season is back up in Tampa and Fort Myers.
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Quoting LargoFl:
I think i read somewhere..the whole global temp hasnt warmed up to 1 degree yet..

That depends entirely on your units and period of time analyzed. If you use 1980 as the start point and degrees celsius, the warming has been about 0.3-0.4C (~0.5-0.7F). It exceeds 1.0F when using longer time periods and the Fahrenheit scale.
Quoting LargoFl:

i could be wrong but scientists are saying..climate and local weather(storms) are two seperate things and should'nt be mixed....

Not entirely separate, but yes, different. However, because climate is the average of long duration weather events, they become more closely tied as the time period increases.
Quoting LargoFl:
when i see temps in the 120's here in florida on a consistant basis..then maybe i'll believe in global warming lol...then we start to worry

Probably won't be a common occurrence even with substantial warming... at least for Florida. Temperate areas will see more intense warming than areas that typically are more moist, as moist air takes more heat energy to warm than dry air. Now the southern Great Plains... that might be a different story.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yes my local met gives my area a very slim 30% chance, he doesnt think tampa southward will be affected..gee i sure could use some around my area..


No kidding! I'm sitting at a 20% chance. I say more like 0%
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Sugar Cane and Sugar Beets....
..ah and what lurks in those fields?..lol...way back at my dads house in Conn..as a teen i loved having my big garden...and guess what..rodents were a big problem..my dad used his 22 on them..i can only imagine whats in the fields of say Iowa oe nebraska in those huge weat fields etc..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

A tale of two lows giving significant snowfall Thursday into Friday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An Alberta clipper will combine with a Texas low to bring a
significant snowfall to most of Southern Ontario. Light snow will
begin from west to east Thursday with heavier snow Thursday night
into Friday.

Current indications are that the highest snow amounts will occur
north of a line from Grand Bend to Hamilton to Kingston. General snow
amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible with this event.

Lower snow amounts are expected to the south of this line with 5 to
10 cm possible. There is also a risk of freezing rain over the
Windsor to Chatham areas Thursday evening.

Winter driving conditions will likely deteriorate significantly
Thursday night.

There is still some uncertainty as to the exact tracks of both
Lows, which will affect the timing and snow amounts for each region.
Environment Canada is monitoring this system closely and will issue
further statements as necessary.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/KUHN/OSPC

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Don't like the look of that Largo. Notice Southwest Florida is dry :(
..yes my local met gives my area a very slim 30% chance, he doesnt think tampa southward will be affected..gee i sure could use some around my area..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting LargoFl:
yes its an interesting debate among scientists researching it....i have a question tho...where exactly..does sugar come from?


Sugar Cane and Sugar Beets....
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192. VR46L
Quoting Luisport:
Link


Sounds like its going to be some storm ...
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1137 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...STRONG COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE STARTING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE
FRIDAY...THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST FROM THERE ON SATURDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST. THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DETERMINE EXACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
GREATER THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting PedleyCA:
Quoting NEwxguy:


I suspect thats meters not inches.


DOOM


lol,yeh,you think,I meant to say centimeters.

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Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 48 hours...


Don't like the look of that Largo. Notice Southwest Florida is dry :(
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
This part of the article makes a lot more sense to me:

Not all researchers agree with the rat hypothesis, however. Peter Brown, a paleoanthropologist from the University of New England in Australia, thinks the emergence of tooth decay relates to sugar in the human diet. “You need to think about the distribution of rats and caries, both in terms of geography and through time,” Brown says. “In Australia caries came with the introduction of sugar and flour to Aboriginal communities. In Japan, during the Edo period, the samurai class had relatively poor oral health (sugar and refined carbohydrates) but the common people had a very low caries incidence (no access to sugar or refined carbohydrates)—nothing to do with rats.”
yes its an interesting debate among scientists researching it....i have a question tho...where exactly..does sugar come from?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
Quoting Neapolitan:
With the introduction of the new dataset using the 1981-2010 base period, 2006 and 2009 were reclassified as La Nina years, where previously they'd been considered neutral. Since both those years were slightly warmer than 2012, they moved into first and second place, and knocked 2012 down to third.

So, again: nothing evil, nothing manipulative; no lies, no deceit, no trickery. No one was "caught". This is yet another example of scientists doing their job by constantly reviewing their observations, and making corrections when warranted.

People seem to be having such a hard time understanding baselines and anomalies. Of course, scientists understand that using anomalies from a baseline can be a nice way to display data with seasonal effects or other irrelevant effects reduced, but with minimal processing of the data. To some that do no understand anomalies, somehow they become sinister or suspicious.

Of course anomalies are very tied to their baseline - if the baseline changes or is updated, the anomalies also must be updated. If the baseline is "all La Nina years," and it is determined that the classification of La Nina years should be changed, it also changes the anomalies calculated from that baseline. However, the raw values of the data set do not change in any way, and in most cases, trends do not change.
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Quoting LargoFl:
off topic but the scientific journal has an interesting article on tooth decay..seems its a fairly Modern malady that didnt exist until we started eating grains..neanderals didnt have tooth decay,they were strictly meat eaters..when we switched to eating grains..tooth decay came along with it, the journal says it may come from rats saliva in the grain fields..ugh..............Link



That sounds somewhat suspicious...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7286
Quoting LargoFl:
off topic but the scientific journal has an interesting article on tooth decay..seems its a fairly Modern malady that didnt exist until we started eating grains..neanderals didnt have tooth decay,they were strictly meat eaters..when we switched to eating grains..tooth decay came along with it, the journal says it may come from rats saliva in the grain fields..ugh..............Link
This part of the article makes a lot more sense to me:

Not all researchers agree with the rat hypothesis, however. Peter Brown, a paleoanthropologist from the University of New England in Australia, thinks the emergence of tooth decay relates to sugar in the human diet. “You need to think about the distribution of rats and caries, both in terms of geography and through time,” Brown says. “In Australia caries came with the introduction of sugar and flour to Aboriginal communities. In Japan, during the Edo period, the samurai class had relatively poor oral health (sugar and refined carbohydrates) but the common people had a very low caries incidence (no access to sugar or refined carbohydrates)—nothing to do with rats.”
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RAP model at 18 hours...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915
GFS at 48 hours...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36915

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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