Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels
During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.
Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.
Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.
Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Jeff Masters
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Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link
Link
Definitely looking like a great setup for a substantial snowfall for quite a bit of people though!
That also puts NYC back into the 2' range!
Very Good point ILwthrfan..
http://www.geod.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/pgrreportnov2001. pdf
Post Glacial Rebound:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound
That model is also using a 10:1 ratio for an average too. As the back half the storm pulls away the snow will only translate to a higher ratio. Big Difference on whether you get a 10:1 versus a 12:1. ~ 17% higher could mean 17% more snow too. Then there is the high water anomalies in the Gulf Stream which only help add moisture to the system.
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CST
* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
&&
FEB 4th
here the new one FEB 7th
Yeah we have plenty of water here now..
HurricaneDean07 was talking about this earlier today on his blog. It certainly looks concerning. We will have to see what it looks like as we get into spring. If conditions persist with what your showing, people have been mumbling the 2005 year as a analog.
And for the students tuning in, this storm will be a great study for you as well..
the GFS has been showing the low in each run developing faster than predicted..I showed this last night with the 18z/12z run
06z
00z
You should be happy with 4-6, I haven't seen half that all year combined. #@(*&! That track could shift 50 miles and put you in a whole other category.
No, it wont happen "all the time" or "in August too."
Let's take a step back from irrational straw man arguments, ad hominem comments, and overall ignorance for a second, and take a look at what the data actually shows scientists regarding possible climatic trends in snowfall.
Is snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere changing? Yes, in some ways. The trend for Northern Hemisphere snow coverr is downward since the late 1960s, and the trend is statistically significant:
Is the seasonality of this snow cover changing? Yes. The trends in snow cover are different for each season, with possible slight increases in the middle of winter and very steep declines in the summer and fall/autumn:
July Trends
February Trends
Snow cover might be increasing in winter, but is that directly tied to stronger winter storms? Possibly. Some stations show an overall upward trend since the 1980s, other stations show a downward trend:
How can an overall increase in the average heat energy of earth's climate system cause more snow? As anyone who has studied meteorology knows, snow is related to temperature, but not directly correlated. That is because snow is precipitation, but is a precipitation dependent on particular temperature ranges; after a certain point cooler temperatures correlate with reduced snowfall amounts. As the Northeast Regional Climate Center explains:
Just as indicated, atmospheric moisture is increasing:
An increase in atmospheric moisture generally leads to an increase in precipitation, and when temperatures are cold enough to snow (for example, Winter), an increase in snowfall could be expected.
Mine too. Click on the word Radar at the top and it will revert to the correct size.
Viewing: 701 - 733
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