Wild weather week ends; Mississippi River rises out of danger zone

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on February 01, 2013

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One of the most unusual weeks of January weather in U.S. history has drawn to a close, and residents of the Southeast are cleaning up after a ferocious 2-day outbreak of severe weather. NWS damage surveys have found that at least 42 tornadoes touched down on January 29 - 30, making it the 3rd largest January tornado outbreak since records began in 1950. Here are the largest January tornado outbreaks since 1950:

129 1/21 - 1/22 1999
50 1/7 - 1/8 2008
42 1/29 - 1/30 2013
40 1/9 1/10 1975

As wunderground's Angela Fritz wrote in her blog today, the powerful tornado that ripped through Adairsville, Georgia, northwest of Atlanta, at 11:19 am EST Thursday morning, killing one person, has been rated a high-end EF-3 with 160 mph winds. At least seven other tornadoes in the outbreak were EF-2s. Damaging winds reports for the 2-day period numbered 597, the highest 2-day January total since NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began tabulating these in 2000. The severe weather outbreak was fueled an air mass that set many all-time January records for warmth and moisture, as detailed by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest post, A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days.


Figure 1. Damage to the Daiki Corporation factory in Adairsville, GA, after the January 30, 2013 EF-3 tornado. Image credit: Dr. Greg Forbes, TWC.


Figure 2. Severe weather reports for the month of January; 597 reports of damaging winds were recorded January 29 - 30. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

Mississippi River rising
This week's storm brought widespread rains of 1 - 2" to Missouri and Illinois, along the drainage basin of the stretch of the Mississippi River that was so low as to threaten to stop barge traffic. Happily, the rains have caused the river to rise by more than seven feet over the past week, along the stretch from St. Louis to Thebes, Illinois. Thanks to this much-needed bump in river levels, plus the future run-off that will occur from the snows that have accumulated in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, I expect no potential low water closures of the Mississippi until June at the earliest. According to today's newly-released Drought Monitor, though, the area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought remained unchanged at 58% this week. It will be dry across the core of the drought region for at least the next week; the GFS model is predicting that the next chance of significant precipitation for the drought region will be Saturday, February 9. Don't bet on this happening, though, since the model has been inconsistent with its handling of the storm. The drought has killed hundreds of thousands of trees across the Midwest, and many more will succumb during the next few years. According to Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, drought was present in at least isolated spots in all 50 states of the U.S. for the first time in history during 2012.


Figure 3. The water level in the Mississippi River at St. Louis was at -4' early this week, just above the all-time record low of -6.2' set in 1940. However, rains from this week's storm have raised water levels by seven feet. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 4. The liquid equivalent of melting all the snow on the ground present on February 1, 2013. Widespread amounts of water equivalent to 0.39" - 2" of rain are present over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, which is near average for this time of year. When this snow melts, it will raise the level of the Mississippi River and aid barge navigation. Image credit: NOAA/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

Links
Adairsville Tornado Recap, Photos, and Video from Angela Fritz

A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

Tornado Expert Sees "Staggering" Damage in Georgia



Have a great Groundhog's Day and Super Sunday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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NOT AS COLD TONIGHT...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
Quoting ncstorm:
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
January's average temperature in Wilmington was 50.8 degrees. Both December and January had a warmer average temperature than November did, only the second time that's happened since 1874. I guess this really doesnt support the GW agenda, but I guess the NWS will get called a bunch a denialists too..

How would something about seasonal abnormalities have anything to do with someone being a denialist or having an agenda?
What was even the relevance of taking something that was just a somewhat odd occurrence and making it into something more?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2874
Feb 2, 2013; 3:34 PM ET

A series of clippers will dust the upper Midwest with enough snow to cause delays and slippery roads. Expect snow along I-95 tonight as well
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362


Nice here too.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4903
January 17, 1977: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a Nor'easter over Atlantic Canada sends very cold temperatures southward into the state. Areas around Pensacola are the first to receive the snow. Then the rest of The Panhandle. Followed by record accumulations for The Nature Coast, the I-4 corridor (both Orlando and Tampa receive light accumulations of about 1-2" with a few isolated spots reportedly receiving 3-6"), and finally South Florida. By early on January 19, West Palm Beach reported snow for the first time on record, with snow flurries reaching as far south as Homestead. The snow causes little impact as it was of the dry variety, though the accompanying cold air results in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage (Orlando tied the 1899 record of over six consecutive nights well-below freezing). On January 20, The Miami Herald reports the event as the front page story, with a headline of a size usually reserved for the declaration of war.[12]
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
Just to mess with you all.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 51 min 27 sec ago
Overcast
89 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 13%
Dew Point: 32 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.09 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 18000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

This is BS as it is 73.3 here and kind of overcast.


2 Miles NNW Riverside Municipal CA

74°F

23°C

Humidity34%
Wind SpeedNE 2 G 7 MPH
Barometer30.13 in
Dewpoint44°F (7°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 02 Feb 12:49 pm PST

Current conditions at

Jurupa Valley (SDJUR)

Lat: 33.987 Lon: -117.425 Elev: 795ft.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4903
LOL i stayed and boarded up, all my neighbors fled to Orlando..and............Tampa has not been hit with a significant hurricane since the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. In 2004, Hurricane Charley was forecast to make a direct hit on Tampa. This caused one of the largest evacuations in history with many residents taking refuge in the Orlando area. Instead the storm suddenly intensified to a category 4 hurricane, unexpectedly hooked to the right, and slammed into Punta Gorda. It then traveled across the state hitting Orlando, where many Tampa residents had taken refuge, as a category 2 storm.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
2 more days and still snowing here..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
Quoting Doppler22:
my snow grade is an F :(


My snow grade is a Z

Tried to find last time it snowed here and one site said 2/12/2007 but the PWS near there wasn't up at the time and the only other info was 1947 for the
La Sierra area of town.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4903
Turned out to be a very nice day here...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
301. wxchaser97
9:32 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Today is the 2 year anniversary of the Groundhog Day blizzard of 2011, which caused billions of dollars in damage and lots of snow, ice, and rain in the east. Today, it is once again snowing on Groundhog Day in SEMI, just with less accumulations, wind, and travel troubles. From the 2011 storm I saw around 9" of snow and near blizzard conditions, with just 2-3" and a little gusty winds with this clipper. I just felt like pointing this out.
2011:


2013:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
300. Civicane49
9:16 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
299. Doppler22
8:49 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
my snow grade is an F :(
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3263
298. JNCali
8:47 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, someone had to teach the groundhog his lines.

Grothar, coaching the groundhog
Here in TN we call ground hog sausage!
and this is how I like mine...
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
297. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:47 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
So far SIX earthquakes in the 6.0 magnitude category have rattled this area... in a 3 day period...

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
296. ncstorm
8:45 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
January's average temperature in Wilmington was 50.8 degrees. Both December and January had a warmer average temperature than November did, only the second time that's happened since 1874. More climate information is available on our webpage at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ilm

I guess this really doesnt support the GW agenda, but I guess the NWS will get called a bunch a denialists too..

Hope everyone is enjoying their saturday..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13453
295. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:44 PM GMT on February 02, 2013


Right now... I stand at the 12" mark of snow this year compared to the average of 24" ...

My snow grade: G- :( ... lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
294. mikeylikesyouall
8:43 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
The low that is forecast to form sw of Nova Scotia into the gulf of St. Lawerence will deepen rapdily. Portions of northern Nova Scotia and Price Edward Island will more than likely see over 12 inches and strong winds on the Backside of the low, for tomorrow night.
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
293. Jedkins01
8:38 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting charlottefl:


I like your point of view. I think the most positive message on taking care of the planet I've personally ever heard was actually at Sea World. They have a show called One Ocean. It wasn't preachy and they didn't shove it down your throat. But they talk about the diversity of life here on the planet and how we should take care of it so we can pass it on to future generations. I mean really it's common sense, but they present it in a manner that actually makes me want to do something about it. That's my only gripe about all the AGW talk is that there is a lot of bickering and negativity. None of that fixes anything. If people really want to change how things are, lead by example. I'll leave you guys with this:


"Be the change you want to see in the world." Mahatma Gandhi

Perfect weather for mountain biking today. Getting ready to hit the trails...



I agree!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
292. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:28 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
291. yonzabam
8:25 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

You might find this data helpful while investigating your hypothesis further:

There are three major stratospheric warm anomalies evident in the data. All three coincide with major volcanic eruptions that were able to penetrate the stratosphere with particulate matter. The warm periods also coincided cooler periods in the near-surface troposphere; not because of changing troposphere volumes and a drop in the tropopause, but simply because the particulate matter was blocking more sunlight from reaching the surface. This sunlight was instead being absorbed by particulates in the stratosphere and this caused stratospheric warming.

Other than this already understood correlation between stratospheric temperature and tropospheric temperature and the link caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect, it appears as if there isn't much evidence in the data of warm events aloft causing cool events at the surface.


Now, that's a considerably better post than your previous ones. Very interesting data, and a good point, well made.

It may well blow my hypothesis out of the water, but stratospheric warming due to volcanic eruptions is not the same as stratospheric warming due to increased solar activity.

The cooling at the surface due to volanic eruptions is believed to be mainly due to the reflection of incoming solar radiation in the stratosphere by SO2. Pinatubo caused a 0.5C global cooling at the surface.

During volcanism induced stratospheric warming, the altitude of the tropopause should, in theory, have decreased. My hypothesis suggests this would cause tropospheric warming, which clearly is the opposite of what actually happened.

Therefore, the only explanation I can offer to keep my hypothesis afloat, is that the the effect of SO2 reflection was a bigger factor than the postulated decrease in the altitude of the tropopause. This decrease in altitude of the tropopause would not have occurred if the troposphere was cooled by SO2 reflection. Instead, the tropopause would have risen in altitude.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2425
290. ScottLincoln
8:04 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:

you still must provide the mechanism by which this stratosphere-to-troposphere warming occurs.


Scott, are you being willfully obtuse? I've explained the mechanism very clearly in two posts. It could not be more clearly explained. I'm not going to explain it a third time.
You might find this data helpful while investigating your hypothesis further:


There are three major stratospheric warm anomalies evident in the data. All three coincide with major volcanic eruptions that were able to penetrate the stratosphere with particulate matter. The warm periods also coincided with cooler periods in the near-surface troposphere; not because of changing troposphere volumes and a drop in the tropopause, but simply because the particulate matter was blocking more sunlight from reaching the surface. This sunlight was instead being absorbed by particulates in the stratosphere and this caused stratospheric warming.

Other than this already understood correlation between stratospheric temperature and tropospheric temperature and the link caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect, it appears as if there isn't much evidence in the data of warm events aloft causing cool events at the surface.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2874
289. TropicalAnalystwx13
7:53 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Looks like the next chance for severe weather across the southern plains and Southeast comes in a little over a week.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
288. yonzabam
7:48 PM GMT on February 02, 2013

you still must provide the mechanism by which this stratosphere-to-troposphere warming occurs.


Scott, are you being willfully obtuse? I've explained the mechanism very clearly in two posts. It could not be more clearly explained. I'm not going to explain it a third time.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2425
287. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:44 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
ANOTHER 6.1...just happened
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
286. ScottLincoln
7:43 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:

It doesn't follow that tropospheric warming, due to increased solar activity warming the stratosphere, has to be due to a similar mechanism.


Of course hypothetical warming of the troposphere from stratospheric warming would not necessarily be caused by the same mechanism as warming from the enhanced greenhouse effect. But it is still just that - hypothetical - you still must provide the mechanism by which this stratosphere-to-troposphere warming occurs.
Provide evidence that the tropopause actually drops in height during periods of stratospheric warming, independent of tropospheric temperature. Provide evidence that this drop in the troposphere causes a change in total volume of the troposphere. Provide evidence that during times of "lower troposphere volume," the average tropospheric temperature is reduced, which then causes a drop in temperature. This drop in temperature must be shown to be the result of, not the cause of, the drop in the tropopause height (see Ideal Gas Law).

Quoting yonzabam:


It's quite simple. The troposphere is well mixed, so the cold air just under the tropopause influences temperature on the ground. If the altitude of the tropopause is decreased, there's less of that very cold air to moderate ground temperatures.


Wouldn't the opposite then be true? A cooler stratosphere causing a cooler troposphere? Is there any research conclusions indicating that our cooling of the stratosphere from the enhanced greenhouse effect has had a cooling effect on the troposphere?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2874
285. 1900hurricane
7:38 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Snow? Maybe?





Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
284. yonzabam
7:38 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting trunkmonkey:


This guy is way ahead of his time, Hitler would have thrown Joseph Goebbels to the ovens if he knew about the skill of propaganda this guy has!


I'm inclined to call this comment 'asinine', but that would be disrespectful to donkeys.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2425
283. VR46L
7:35 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

question VR46L where u at?


Republic Of Ireland
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
282. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:30 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
281. trunkmonkey
7:24 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since Fox ix so adept at cherry-picking via omission, let's add the surrounding for context:

"These new [UV] measurements...are unlikely to alter estimates of the maximum absolute magnitude of the solar contribution to [radiative forcing], which remains small... However, they do suggest the possibility of a much larger impact of solar variations on the stratosphere than previously thought, and some studies have suggested that this may lead to significant regional impacts on climate...that are not necessarily reflected by the RF metric..."

So, a pre-publication draft of a report contributed to by a large and disparate group of scientists and fossil fuel-friendly politicians--and "leaked" by someone who promised not to release anything until publication--contains a passage that states that solar forcing, which is small compared to anthropogenic forcing, may contribute more to regional climates than previously thought--and this is enough to make someone change their beachwear?

Wow. What's going to happen when the actual report is published? ;-)

At any rate, the linked-to Fox piece is especially funny in that the chosen rebuttal witness is himself a well known and thoroughly discredited denialist, Patrick Michaels. Which brings up the point: why do you suppose it is that Fox steadfastly refuses to give voice to even a single one of the many thousands of credible scientists who support climate change theory, choosing to focus instead on the same dozen or so hard-core, fossil-fuels-uber-alles denialists?

Anyone?

Anyone?


This guy is way ahead of his time, Hitler would have thrown Joseph Goebbels to the ovens if he knew about the skill of propaganda this guy has!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
280. trunkmonkey
7:19 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning and happy Groundhog Day everyone.

If the current CPC forecasts are correct, then we may actually get an early spring. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day have good chances for above average temperatures in the eastern half of the country. Of course, those forecasts are likely to change. No matter what the temperatures turn out to be, it looks like precipitation should remain above average, to some degree, in the eastern half to 2/3rds of the country.



thanks for publishing these maps.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
279. wunderkidcayman
7:07 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Hi P'cola , Yeah it going to be like that for a few days over the next week . Noticed its clear by you at the moment too . Anyway going to makethe most of the afternoon and get a good walk in .:)

question VR46L where u at?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
278. Tropicsweatherpr
7:03 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Dry weather will continue in Puerto Rico for the next few days as the dry season takes hold.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT FEB 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID WEEK WHEN MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND A GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 71 81 / 0 0 10 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 0 0 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13293
277. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:42 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Best Track for Hurricane Chris has been finalized by the NHC, meaning we should see its Tropical Cyclone Report sometime this upcoming week.

Looks like a peak intensity of 75 knots (85 mph):



where is that from?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
276. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:41 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Hi guys...

Another strong quake in the Santa Cruz Islands region.. measured to be 6.4
Also, a very strong quake hit Japan..it measured 6.9..



I have a feeling that a major, major quake could strike the Santa Cruz region soon...Not being a downer either...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
275. aspectre
6:40 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
errm... Just because the effect of the Sun's UV output on Earth's climate might be greater than previously thought doesn't mean that the effect will lead to a more moderate outcome for us.
eg... The Arctic's summer sea-ice was originally predicted to last beyond 2100. It's been melting MUCH faster than predicted. Nowadays, nobody will be surprised if the summer ArcticOcean becomes ice-free before 2030.

Stratospheric ozone is created by UV interaction with the atmosphere most strongly just above the tropopause-stratosphere border. Closer to the equator, the more ozone is created -- more UV per unit of surface area -- with winds carrying that ozone to the Poles.
More UV from the Sun means more ozone in the stratosphere. The last Solar cycle had fewer sunspots than normal, meaning that the Sun emitted less UV than normal. Which in turn means that less stratospheric ozone was produced than normal.

Which means that when the number of sunspots returns to normal, there will be a higher concentration of stratospheric ozone. Ozone is a VERY strong greenhouse gas. So more ozone means an increase in its GreenhouseEffect, leading to increased tropospheric heating.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
274. PedleyCA
5:49 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 51 min 5 sec ago
Clear
60 °F
Clear
Humidity: 47%
Dew Point: 40 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.18 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

61.6 here. OMG, someone is smoking crack. It isn't a bit Clear out there. Clouds everywhere. All those clouds didn't show up since 51 minutes ago, too funny. Another sensor that doesn't work as planned.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4903
273. yonzabam
5:37 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I am not sure that this is so much of an actual "effect" but instead maybe more of a misunderstanding of how the atmosphere works... and maybe, well, basic math.
By taking a lower number out of a sample you may increase the mean, but that does not actually increase the values for any of the objects in the sample.

You're going to need an actual physical mechanism by which changes in heat energy in the stratosphere can change heat energy in the near-surface troposphere. As of right now, the widely accepted physical mechanism is that more GHGs in the troposphere are absorbing/re-emitting longwave radiation before it makes it to the stratosphere, thus causing a cooling; you would need to find a physical mechanism that works in reverse.

All of this, of course, assumes that the effect has a long term trend and would affect climate. But based upon the actual research that Fox News and blogger science amatuers have butchered, it discusses cyclical solar changes that would alter weather patterns, not climate.


No need to get over elaborate about it, Scott. I'm well aware of the proposed mechanism whereby GHG induced tropospheric warming is believed to cause stratospheric cooling. It doesn't follow that tropospheric warming, due to increased solar activity warming the stratosphere, has to be due to a similar mechanism.

It's quite simple. The troposphere is well mixed, so the cold air just under the tropopause influences temperature on the ground. If the altitude of the tropopause is decreased, there's less of that very cold air to moderate ground temperatures.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2425
272. Tazmanian
5:16 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
TOKYO - A strong earthquake has struck Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, but authorities say there is no danger of a tsunami and there are no immediate reports of injuries or damage.

Japan's Meteorological Agency says the quake had a magnitude of 6.4 and hit at 11:17 p.m. (1417 GMT) Saturday in the Tokachi region in southern Hokkaido, at a depth of 120 kilometre (75 miles).

The agency says there is no danger of a tsunami from the quake.

The U.S. Geological Survey says the quake's magnitude was 6.9.

Japanese public broadcaster NHK says nearby nuclear power plants, including Tomari and Higashidori, which are currently idled for safety inspections, have reported no abnormalities
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
271. VR46L
5:14 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
270. Tazmanian
5:14 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
6.9 15km SW of Obihiro, Japan


this now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
269. 1900hurricane
5:09 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
There is still considerable variation between ensemble members about a week and a half out, which is the time frame in which a strong 500 mb disturbance (currently located near the Aleutians) tries to eject into the plains. This system will likely eventually bring heavy rains and possible severe weather in the warm sector and heavy snows on the backside of the disturbance.



Several ensemble members indicate the possibility of snow in Texas, so this is something that I am personally watching closely.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
268. Slamguitar
5:07 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning and happy Groundhog Day everyone.

If the current CPC forecasts are correct, then we may actually get an early spring. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day have good chances for above average temperatures in the eastern half of the country. Of course, those forecasts are likely to change. No matter what the temperatures turn out to be, it looks like precipitation should remain above average, to some degree, in the eastern half to 2/3rds of the country.



Too bad the wettest areas aren't a little further west to help out the worst drought stricken areas, but I am hopeful that my fruit trees and plants will actually bear fruit this year if we can get some good drought insurance.



Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
267. ScottLincoln
5:00 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:


A possible explanation for why solar variation may have a greater influence on temperatures on the ground than the physics predicts, could involve what happens to the troposphere when the stratosphere warms.

....
If the stratosphere warms due to incresed UV from the sun, the altitude of the tropopause will become lower. This means that the overall volume of the troposphere decreases. The volume that is lost is the coldest part, just under the tropopause, so the troposphere would warm as a result, increasing temperatures on the ground by more than physicists calculate. It may be that they're not taking this effect into account.

I am not sure that this is so much of an actual "effect" but instead maybe more of a misunderstanding of how the atmosphere works... and maybe, well, basic math.
By taking a lower number out of a sample you may increase the mean, but that does not actually increase the values for any of the objects in the sample.

You're going to need an actual physical mechanism by which changes in heat energy in the stratosphere can change heat energy in the near-surface troposphere. As of right now, the widely accepted physical mechanism is that more GHGs in the troposphere are absorbing/re-emitting longwave radiation before it makes it to the stratosphere, thus causing a cooling; you would need to find a physical mechanism that works in reverse.

All of this, of course, assumes that the effect has a long term trend and would affect climate. But based upon the actual research that Fox News and blogger science amatuers have butchered, it discusses cyclical solar changes that would alter weather patterns, not climate.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2874
266. Skyepony (Mod)
4:55 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Lake Affect snow yesterday..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
265. Skyepony (Mod)
4:54 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Recent Southeast severe event.


AWIPS images of 1-km resolution MODIS 0.65 µm visible channel and 11.0 µm InfraRed (IR) channel images with an overlay of METAR surface reports and SPC storm reports (above) displayed a number of distinct banded convective features across parts of the Southeast US at 16:04 UTC or 11:04 AM local time on 30 January 2013. This banded structure could also be seen on a sequence of 1-km resolution POES AVHRR visible and IR images. In northwestern Georgia, note the isolated convective feature that produced a cluster of tornado and damaging wind reports — one of these tornadoes (rated EF-3) was responsible for a fatality in Adairsville, Georgia (NWS Peachtree City GA event summary), which ended a record 220-day streak with no tornado fatalities in the US.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
264. LargoFl
4:41 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
192 hours another storm?......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
263. PedleyCA
4:39 PM GMT on February 02, 2013


#234 No its not, its right there with recent earthquake activity. Two of those squares are right there at the Sundra straight.

I was meaning the blue ones on the right of that picture. I didn't see that
wide view, just the view of the Santa Cruz Islands, Oops...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4903
262. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:34 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Another season of below-average snowfall for many.

Bad grades...







Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
261. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:31 PM GMT on February 02, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
My NWS is still doing storm surveying. They had initially planned two days, now are up to their fourth day. We are at 14 tornadoes, and they have two spots left according to them, that they want to check out.

One EF0 passed just a 1/4 mile from my friend's house. I am going to ask him tomorrow if he heard anything.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.