Wild weather week ends; Mississippi River rises out of danger zone

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on February 01, 2013

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One of the most unusual weeks of January weather in U.S. history has drawn to a close, and residents of the Southeast are cleaning up after a ferocious 2-day outbreak of severe weather. NWS damage surveys have found that at least 42 tornadoes touched down on January 29 - 30, making it the 3rd largest January tornado outbreak since records began in 1950. Here are the largest January tornado outbreaks since 1950:

129 1/21 - 1/22 1999
50 1/7 - 1/8 2008
42 1/29 - 1/30 2013
40 1/9 1/10 1975

As wunderground's Angela Fritz wrote in her blog today, the powerful tornado that ripped through Adairsville, Georgia, northwest of Atlanta, at 11:19 am EST Thursday morning, killing one person, has been rated a high-end EF-3 with 160 mph winds. At least seven other tornadoes in the outbreak were EF-2s. Damaging winds reports for the 2-day period numbered 597, the highest 2-day January total since NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began tabulating these in 2000. The severe weather outbreak was fueled an air mass that set many all-time January records for warmth and moisture, as detailed by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest post, A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days.


Figure 1. Damage to the Daiki Corporation factory in Adairsville, GA, after the January 30, 2013 EF-3 tornado. Image credit: Dr. Greg Forbes, TWC.


Figure 2. Severe weather reports for the month of January; 597 reports of damaging winds were recorded January 29 - 30. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

Mississippi River rising
This week's storm brought widespread rains of 1 - 2" to Missouri and Illinois, along the drainage basin of the stretch of the Mississippi River that was so low as to threaten to stop barge traffic. Happily, the rains have caused the river to rise by more than seven feet over the past week, along the stretch from St. Louis to Thebes, Illinois. Thanks to this much-needed bump in river levels, plus the future run-off that will occur from the snows that have accumulated in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, I expect no potential low water closures of the Mississippi until June at the earliest. According to today's newly-released Drought Monitor, though, the area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought remained unchanged at 58% this week. It will be dry across the core of the drought region for at least the next week; the GFS model is predicting that the next chance of significant precipitation for the drought region will be Saturday, February 9. Don't bet on this happening, though, since the model has been inconsistent with its handling of the storm. The drought has killed hundreds of thousands of trees across the Midwest, and many more will succumb during the next few years. According to Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, drought was present in at least isolated spots in all 50 states of the U.S. for the first time in history during 2012.


Figure 3. The water level in the Mississippi River at St. Louis was at -4' early this week, just above the all-time record low of -6.2' set in 1940. However, rains from this week's storm have raised water levels by seven feet. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 4. The liquid equivalent of melting all the snow on the ground present on February 1, 2013. Widespread amounts of water equivalent to 0.39" - 2" of rain are present over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, which is near average for this time of year. When this snow melts, it will raise the level of the Mississippi River and aid barge navigation. Image credit: NOAA/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

Links
Adairsville Tornado Recap, Photos, and Video from Angela Fritz

A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

Tornado Expert Sees "Staggering" Damage in Georgia



Have a great Groundhog's Day and Super Sunday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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I will welcome this warmup across the eastern third. Also some cold in the western third.



Warm in the NE after that.

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Good morning everyone!

This updated 6-10 day precip probablility map looks better for the driest regions on the US.



The 8-14:

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Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting LargoFl:
Has Hydrus been on since this day?..............


Haven't seen Hydrus yet Largo..
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Yesss..Get that cold out of here...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW AREA RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. SEE
RIVER PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TRACK EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308
stormy day in texas tomorrow.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308
snow coming pretty far south today huh........URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TODAY...

.MOIST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BLACK ICE WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA.
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Went up to Adairsville and Calhoun GA for the last time to help out yesterday.
Cutting trees, removing debris etc.

Metal highway billboards snapped like toothpicks two feet above the ground, and whole fields of farms and forests reduced to fields of smashed houses, shredded trees, mangled power lines, demolished barns, and strewn debris , truly show the power of this tornado.

I actually spoke to one homeowner who, although all the houses around him sustained significant damage, his house received none. Four very large oak trees within feet of his small cottage were all toppled and shredded, but all fell inches away from every side of his house.

With the tornado being a half mile wide at some points, there is a wide swath of damage where people helped out.

Anyway that's my last post on this since I wont be going up there anymore.
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Has Hydrus been on since this day?..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1001 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

MDZ001-WVZ023-041-032315-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-130204T0000Z/
/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.130204T2200Z-130205T1500Z/
GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD...
TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS
1001 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY. 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308


A Few Clouds

59°F

15°C

Humidity60%
Wind Speedcalm
Barometer30.12 in (1018.8 mb)
Dewpoint45°F (7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 03 Feb 6:53 am PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.

it is 57.6 here, The Airport reported .01 of rain. Heard it during the night.
Better than nothing.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Felleng looks to be rapidly dissapating..




REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED
AND DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
REMAINED EXPOSED AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THIS IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON A 030411Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CURRENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS WEAKENED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
DIGGING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING SEVERE
SUBSIDENCE. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM GALE FORCE
INTENSITY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 36; HOWEVER, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE TAU 36 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS EAST OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 40900Z. //
NNNN



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NOAA Image of the Day..
Lake effect snow..

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Palmer Drought Index..

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My NWS forcast for PNS Pensacola Naval Air Station..

4 Miles ESE Lillian AL

Current:
Fair

50°F

10°C

Humidity89%
Wind SpeedN 3 mph
Barometer30.25 in (1024.5 mb)
Dewpoint47°F (8°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 3 Feb 7:56 am CST

Current conditions at

Pensacola, Naval Air Station (KNPA)

Lat: 30.36 Lon: -87.32 Elev: 33ft.

Today

Sunny

High: 66 °F

Tonight

Partly Cloudy

Partly
Cloudy

Low: 41 °F

Monday

Partly Sunny

Partly
Sunny

High: 65 °F

Monday
Night

Showers Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Showers
Likely

Low: 58 °F

Tuesday

Showers Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Showers
Likely

High: 68 °F

Tuesday
Night

Slight Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Slight Chc
Showers

Low: 53 °F

Wednesday

Slight Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Slight Chc
Showers

High: 70 °F

Wednesday
Night

Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%

Chance
Showers

Low: 53 °F

Thursday

Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%

Chance
Showers

High: 70 °F
7-DAY FORECAST

Today Sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Monday Night Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight.

Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Friday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.

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Another beautiful sunrise this am..

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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Mornin' all.
We had 3" of heavy wet snow late yesterday here just Northeast of Ellijay, Georgia. Foggy with flurries this morning. Looks like someone changed the picture from color to black and white.


Yeah satellite shows quite a bit of cloudiness in your area...


1 KM Visible Satellite for Georgia


Snow in spots in your county..



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Good Morning All..






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Good morning to all.

Still too low probability to predict the next severe event.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2013

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH REGARD TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO RECENT
RUNS. WHAT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THE LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE
EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
EMANATE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND IN THE S-CNTRL CONUS NEXT WEEKEND...SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS EVIDENT IN THE D7-8 TIME FRAME. BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT
ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 02/03/2013
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Mornin' all.
We had 3" of heavy wet snow late yesterday here just Northeast of Ellijay, Georgia. Foggy with flurries this morning. Looks like someone changed the picture from color to black and white.
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E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
LOWERED VISIBILITY AND THE RISK OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 MPH.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308
2 years ago Today

February 3rd 2011. The day Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi hit Mission Beach Far North Queensland.



I still look at that loop and think. WOW!!!

Have a good Sunday all. Mines finished, Monday now. Booooo
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39308
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Happy Super Bowl Sunday! We have seen all kinds of animals predict the winner, lets see who the Greyounds think will win tonight's big game...

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Good Morning Folks!!..the blogs Coffee is perked for when you get here..have a wonderful day everyone!
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cool here this morning, but not too bad...........
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378. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FELLENG (07-20122013)
10:00 AM RET February 3 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (970 hPa) located at 30.8S 52.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the eastern semi-circle, and up to 280 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 33.2S 53.1E - Depression Extratropicale
24 HRS: 35.7S 54.1E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 41.9S 60.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 54.3S 75.7E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=======================
Last satellite pictures (meteosat7, microwave SSMIS 04.11z) show the offset between the low level circulation and the convective activity located east southeast of the low level circulation center, system undergoing westerly vertical wind shear. They suggest that the low level circulation is becoming less symmetric and that maximum winds radius has extended. Ocean heat content is marginal.

Felleng shows post-tropical characteristics. It should have completed its extratropical transition during the night from Sunday to Monday.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a south to south southeast track through monday evening under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge northeast of the system. Beyond, system should undergo the westerly mid-latitudes steering flow and track faster southeastward.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Couldn't the NHC have treated Sandy as a subtropical storm before and just after landfall? I'm pretty sure that would have justified a Hurricane Warning.



Subtropical storms are not entangled with nearby frontal boundaries. In addition, their strongest winds are typically found over 100 nmi from the center of circulation, and based on the convective pattern, Sandy's was probably a little closer than that, even at the time of landfall.
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Quoting LargoFl:
BY GERALD E. MARSH


CHICAGO %u2014 Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age.

What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth%u2019s surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don%u2019t know.

Even if all the temperature increase over the last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of a little over one degree Fahrenheit %u2014 an increase well within natural variations over the last few thousand years.

While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the next century would cause humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be within our ability to adapt.

Entering a new ice age, however, would be catastrophic for the continuation of modern civilization.

One has only to look at maps showing the extent of the great ice sheets during the last Ice Age to understand what a return to ice age conditions would mean. Much of Europe and North-America were covered by thick ice, thousands of feet thick in many areas and the world as a whole was much colder.

The last %u201Clittle%u201D Ice Age started as early as the 14th century when the Baltic Sea froze over followed by unseasonable cold, storms, and a rise in the level of the Caspian Sea. That was followed by the extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland and the loss of grain cultivation in Iceland. Harvests were even severely reduced in Scandinavia And this was a mere foreshadowing of the miseries to come.

By the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, wiping out farms and entire villages. In England, the River Thames froze during the winter, and in 1780, New York Harbor froze. Had this continued, history would have been very different. Luckily, the decrease in solar activity that caused the Little Ice Age ended and the result was the continued flowering of modern civilization.

There were very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago when Earth%u2019s climate entered an unusual period of instability. Starting about a million years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years, separated by relatively short interglacial perioods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Before the onset of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earth%u2019s history, it was far warmer than it is today.

Indeed, the Sun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large land plants have flourished. Both of these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest level in Earth%u2019s long history.

Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels drop to a little less than twice what they are today.

It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacial period. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach.

So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN%u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely.

NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earth%u2019s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?

We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.



Gerald Marsh is a retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration. Readers may e-mail him at gemarsh@uchicago.edu



That's a pretty big mouthful, but no evidence of a coming ice age. I really don't see the point. Hypothetically speaking, even if hundreds of scientists with a large amount of credentials agreed with Marsh does that mean you should believe it?
Always investigate things for yourself, look at the big picture, always look outside the box when viewing evidence before looking inside.
To claim there is a coming ice age rather than warming from CO2 makes no sense and has no support.
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375. Skyepony (Mod)


LL Ori and the Orion Nebula
Image Credit: NASA, ESA, and The Hubble Heritage Team

Explanation: This esthetic close-up of cosmic clouds and stellar winds features LL Orionis, interacting with the Orion Nebula flow. Adrift in Orion's stellar nursery and still in its formative years, variable star LL Orionis produces a wind more energetic than the wind from our own middle-aged Sun. As the fast stellar wind runs into slow moving gas a shock front is formed, analogous to the bow wave of a boat moving through water or a plane traveling at supersonic speed. The small, arcing, graceful structure just above and left of center is LL Ori's cosmic bow shock, measuring about half a light-year across. The slower gas is flowing away from the Orion Nebula's hot central star cluster, the Trapezium, located off the upper left corner of the picture. In three dimensions, LL Ori's wrap-around shock front is shaped like a bowl that appears brightest when viewed along the "bottom" edge. The beautiful picture is part of a large mosaic view of the complex stellar nursery in Orion, filled with a myriad of fluid shapes associated with star formation.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38209
Quoting SteveDa1:
I also think an ice age is coming.

Climate progress:
Manmade Carbon Pollution Has Already Put Us On Track For 69 Feet Of Sea Level Rise
By Joe Romm on Feb 1, 2013 at 12:27 pm

The bad news is that we%u2019re all but certain to end up with a coastline at least this flooded (20 meters or 69 feet):



The %u201Cgood%u201D news is that this might take 1000 to 2000 years (or longer), and the choices we make now can affect the rate of rise and whether we blow past 69 feet to beyond 200 feet.

%u201CThe natural state of the Earth with present carbon dioxide levels is one with sea levels about 70 feet higher than now.%u201D


Read more here.



Personally I tend to doubt climate predictions of 1000 to 2000 years into the future...

There could be a 100 ft rise in sea level in 400 years followed by a 150 foot drop by 2000 years for all we know...


A lot can change in 1000 to 2000 years...

That is why I don't go to Fox News for science neither sites like that. There are always extremes on either side, the wise avoid them.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had heard about this as well, nymore. As much as one wishes something being done, there actually was not anything that could be done. The crew had no way to make any repairs and there was no way to get another shuttle to them to return in. Unfortunately, Columbia could not dock with the International Space Station either because it lacked the equipment to do so. Source - Link

Unfortunately, the Columbia crew was doomed from the moment the foam struck the wing tiles and punched a hole in it. Their ultimate fate had already been sealed. There was nothing that anyone could do to change this.
I would say this is not necessarily true although we will never know for certain. Maybe the next shuttle in line could have flew or maybe one of thousands of engineers or specialist might have come to some solution. Either way it just goes to show what arrogance or ignorance can do.

As Richard Feynman (one of the greatest minds ever) once said: For successful technology reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting nymore:
Since the shuttle disaster has been discussed here, I think this is on topic. I just watched again the Nova episode on the mission, it is quite interesting to watch the arrogance of administrators and management in not listening to their head engineer when he requested and even begged that they ask for help from the military to use their spy camera systems both land and space based to take pictures of the shuttle to look for damage. Here is the Link

That simple decision by a bunch of pencil pushers quite possibly cost these people their lives. Tragic really after the disaster 17 years earlier when they over rode engineers concerns about the cold temps and o-rings.


I had heard about this as well, nymore. As much as one wishes something being done, there actually was not anything that could be done. The crew had no way to make any repairs and there was no way to get another shuttle to them to return in. Unfortunately, Columbia could not dock with the International Space Station either because it lacked the equipment to do so. Source - Link

Unfortunately, the Columbia crew was doomed from the moment the foam struck the wing tiles and punched a hole in it. Their ultimate fate had already been sealed. There was nothing that anyone could do to change this.
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Felleng continues to move south-southeastward over the South Indian Ocean:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting LargoFl:
NEO I am going to defer to those smarter than myself..read this..from MIT..............golbal warming vs the next ice age....interesting reading.....Link


Largo, how far into that article did you read? The last two paragraphs puts everything into perspective.

"But even that warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.

This means that humanity will be hit by a one-two punch the likes of which we have never seen. Nature is as unforgiving to men as it was to dinosaurs; advanced civilization will not survive unless we develop energy sources that curb the carbon emissions heating the planet today and help us fend off the cold when the ice age comes. Solar, nuclear, and other non-fossil-­fuel energy sources need to be developed now, before carbon emissions get out of hand. MIT alumni could play a prominent part in discovering the technology needed to keep us all going. And there are fortunes to be made from the effort. It’s worth thinking about."
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Couldn't the NHC have treated Sandy as a subtropical storm before and just after landfall? I'm pretty sure that would have justified a Hurricane Warning.

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3590
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Remember to always take shelter in a car during a tornado. They're the safest place you could possibly be.


look at that 4x2 through the door, that would of went then a person if one was stupid enough to be sitting there.

News Gallery: Heartbreak in North Bundaberg
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Since the shuttle disaster has been discussed here, I think this is on topic. I just watched again the Nova episode on the mission, it is quite interesting to watch the arrogance of administrators and management in not listening to their head engineer when he requested and even begged that they ask for help from the military to use their spy camera systems both land and space based to take pictures of the shuttle to look for damage. Here is the Link

That simple decision by a bunch of pencil pushers quite possibly cost these people their lives. Tragic really after the disaster 17 years earlier when they over rode engineers concerns about the cold temps and o-rings.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Time to Bail - Sleep Well - Stay Safe - Stay Warm -
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Why can't we see something like this again? :/
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For me in SEMI, this week will surely feel like winter. A series of clipper systems will be dropping through every 1-2 days. Each system has the potential to drop T-3" of snow. Even though this isn't the big storm I'm hoping for, it definitely helps take Detroit out of, or at least close to out, a snowfall deficit.
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I've counted a total of 1.5" for tonight... more is expected for me tomorrow night
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5.1 quake....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Remember to always take shelter in a car during a tornado. They're the safest place you could possibly be.



I have never heard that from anyone... if I ever did... I forgot


That is not safe either TA...!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.