Wild weather week ends; Mississippi River rises out of danger zone

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on February 01, 2013

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One of the most unusual weeks of January weather in U.S. history has drawn to a close, and residents of the Southeast are cleaning up after a ferocious 2-day outbreak of severe weather. NWS damage surveys have found that at least 42 tornadoes touched down on January 29 - 30, making it the 3rd largest January tornado outbreak since records began in 1950. Here are the largest January tornado outbreaks since 1950:

129 1/21 - 1/22 1999
50 1/7 - 1/8 2008
42 1/29 - 1/30 2013
40 1/9 1/10 1975

As wunderground's Angela Fritz wrote in her blog today, the powerful tornado that ripped through Adairsville, Georgia, northwest of Atlanta, at 11:19 am EST Thursday morning, killing one person, has been rated a high-end EF-3 with 160 mph winds. At least seven other tornadoes in the outbreak were EF-2s. Damaging winds reports for the 2-day period numbered 597, the highest 2-day January total since NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began tabulating these in 2000. The severe weather outbreak was fueled an air mass that set many all-time January records for warmth and moisture, as detailed by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest post, A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days.


Figure 1. Damage to the Daiki Corporation factory in Adairsville, GA, after the January 30, 2013 EF-3 tornado. Image credit: Dr. Greg Forbes, TWC.


Figure 2. Severe weather reports for the month of January; 597 reports of damaging winds were recorded January 29 - 30. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

Mississippi River rising
This week's storm brought widespread rains of 1 - 2" to Missouri and Illinois, along the drainage basin of the stretch of the Mississippi River that was so low as to threaten to stop barge traffic. Happily, the rains have caused the river to rise by more than seven feet over the past week, along the stretch from St. Louis to Thebes, Illinois. Thanks to this much-needed bump in river levels, plus the future run-off that will occur from the snows that have accumulated in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, I expect no potential low water closures of the Mississippi until June at the earliest. According to today's newly-released Drought Monitor, though, the area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought remained unchanged at 58% this week. It will be dry across the core of the drought region for at least the next week; the GFS model is predicting that the next chance of significant precipitation for the drought region will be Saturday, February 9. Don't bet on this happening, though, since the model has been inconsistent with its handling of the storm. The drought has killed hundreds of thousands of trees across the Midwest, and many more will succumb during the next few years. According to Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, drought was present in at least isolated spots in all 50 states of the U.S. for the first time in history during 2012.


Figure 3. The water level in the Mississippi River at St. Louis was at -4' early this week, just above the all-time record low of -6.2' set in 1940. However, rains from this week's storm have raised water levels by seven feet. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 4. The liquid equivalent of melting all the snow on the ground present on February 1, 2013. Widespread amounts of water equivalent to 0.39" - 2" of rain are present over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, which is near average for this time of year. When this snow melts, it will raise the level of the Mississippi River and aid barge navigation. Image credit: NOAA/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

Links
Adairsville Tornado Recap, Photos, and Video from Angela Fritz

A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

Tornado Expert Sees "Staggering" Damage in Georgia



Have a great Groundhog's Day and Super Sunday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Post#102, yes, former NYC Mayor Ed Koch died at 2am eastern time this morning. He was, as you said, 88 years old--from congestive heart failure.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting PedleyCA:


Hows your temps today?

Well thanks for the Masters blog of the Friday.
We got about 25/C, today but its crashed to 12/C now.
Those in our frozen north where life is hard and water can occasionally solidify are expecting a decant of the frozen white stuff we all fear and loath here in the south.
No doubt there will be the usual bending and twisting of motorized metal along with the attendant moaning about the cost of heating and how difficult life is.
Here I may have to close the north facing windows a trifle during the coming cold snap of Europes weekend of discontent and dire chill.
Good news to hear that the river is not going to dry up! Yet?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


We had our own indigenous Indians that were decimated over three hundred years by disease and slaving by the Yamassee and Creeks. It was into this void the the Miccosuki and Seminoles moved. It is supposed by some that Chekika was actually a Tekesta, and not a Miccosuki or Seminole. Some have suggested that he led the attack on Cooley. He was certainly responsible for the attack on Indian Key that killed Dr. Perrine and others. He also ambushed General Harney who took exception to the attack, considering a betrayal. When Harney captured Chekika, he did not allow him a warriors death, he hung him like a criminal and left him swinging.

Boy, me too, I love stuff like that.


Indian Key became the first Dade County seat (It's now in Monroe County) in 1836. It's a very tiny island, I'd guess a few acres. What suprised me the first time I visited there is that it actually had many streets and avenues. They used it as an outpost for wrecking.

Edit: If you plan to visit, you'll need a boat. It's located about a mile South of US 1 around Mile Marker 76 or 77.

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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Yes, I know that the Native Americans are relatively recent arrivals to the Everglades region.

If I am recalling correctly, they were "chased" into that area from points further north by an aggressive policy enacted in Washington and undertaken by the US Army. Once they arrived into what were considered by the Whites to be "uninhabitable" lands, they were more or less left alone, at that point.

I don't know when they developed that end-of-times legend. I remember seeing it quoted by a tribal elder in a newspaper article some time back. The journalist who interviewed the tribe members and who wrote the article mentioned it in passing, as if it were meaningless or did not require any further exploration. If it had been me doing the interview, I can assure you I would have dug deeper.

Since that time, a friend of mine who lives in Cooper City, FL and who is acquainted with James Billie, one of the leaders of the Seminole Nation in that area, I believe, confirmed that indeed the Miccosukee have a legend about snow falling on the 'Glades and have passed this legend down generation to generation (similar to the Hopi and their end times beliefs). I don't know if this traditional belief began prior to the Miccosukee being located in extreme South Florida or since arriving there, though it would seem more likely the latter, since snow falling in Southern Alabama is not quite so unique, or frankly, "earth shaking" as would such an event be if it unfolded in today's Miccosukee territory.


We had our own indigenous Indians that were decimated over three hundred years by disease and slaving by the Yamassee and Creeks. It was into this void the the Miccosuki and Seminoles moved. It is supposed by some that Chekika was actually a Tekesta, and not a Miccosuki or Seminole. Some have suggested that he led the attack on Cooley. He was certainly responsible for the attack on Indian Key that killed Dr. Perrine and others. He also ambushed General Harney who took exception to the attack, considering a betrayal. When Harney captured Chekika, he did not allow him a warriors death, he hung him like a criminal and left him swinging.

Boy, me too, I love stuff like that.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2525
106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
CYCLONE TROPICAL FELLENG (07-20122013)
22:00 PM RET February 1 2013
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Felleng (965 hPa) located at 23.4S 51.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
24 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 260 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 25.0S 51.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 26.7S 52.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 29.7S 53.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 34.0S 54.6E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
==========================
Since 1400z an eye has intermittently reappeared on infrared meteosat7 imagery. 1412z f16 and 1705z f18 microwave show a better pattern on 85ghz with a quasi closed eye and a shifting less important between 37ghz and 85ghz pictures. SATCON, CIMMS,AMSU and Advance Dvorak Technique suggest a maximum wind stronger in regard of this morning. Consequently, Felleng is re-classified tropical cyclone with current intensity at 65 knots.

The convective activity remains asymmetric, and extends far in the southeastern semi-circle within peripheral bands.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement related to the forecast track. They still forecast a south southeastward track until monday late under the steering influence of mid-level ridge existing east then northeast of the system. Beyond 72 hours, it should undergo the mid-latitudes steering flow and track faster east southeastward.

Despite the current revival, over this forecast track environmental conditions should continue to degrade (strengthening westerly vertical wind-shear but especially sea surface temperature more and more cool from Saturday evening). However, weakening of the winds should be slow.

On Sunday late or Monday, the system should begin its extratropical transition but winds should remain strong.
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105. txjac
Quoting wxmod:
Beijing gets a reprieve from the smog. MODIS satellite photo today



I read that they shut down factories and disallowed travel. They were also selling canned "fresh air" ...sold millions
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3 Miles N Riverside Municipal CA

72°F

22°C

Humidity31%
Wind SpeedESE 1 G 7 MPH
Barometer30.14 in
Dewpoint40°F (4°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 01 Feb 10:49 am PST

Current conditions at

Jurupa Valley (SDJUR)

Lat: 33.987 Lon: -117.425 Elev: 795ft.

The Airport is reporting 90 but that is erroneous. They have been having reporting issues lately and it appears they have screwed up something.
It can't be 18° warmer in only 3 miles and the forecast was 77....
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103. wxmod
Beijing gets a reprieve from the smog. MODIS satellite photo today

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CH-11 just reported that Ed Koch died at 88 just a few minutes ago.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5701
Quoting AztecCe:


Does anyone here live in northern Minnesota?
yes I do, why?
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Does anyone here live in northern Minnesota?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


That's interesting given they have only been "here" in southern Florida since the late 1820's. It was about 1830 that William Cooley on New River, today's Fr Lauderdale area reported he had new neighbors to his west. This included Arpeika the Miccosuki Medicine Man who led the attack that killed Cooley's wife and children at the onset of the Second Seminole War in southern Florida, January 1836. Before that, they lived in northern Florida near P-cola, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama. Their "original" homelands. I wonder when they developed this end of times legend.


Yes, I know that the Native Americans are relatively recent arrivals to the Everglades region.

If I am recalling correctly, they were "chased" into that area from points further north by an aggressive policy enacted in Washington and undertaken by the US Army. Once they arrived into what were considered by the Whites to be "uninhabitable" lands, they were more or less left alone, at that point.

I don't know when they developed that end-of-times legend. I remember seeing it quoted by a tribal elder in a newspaper article some time back. The journalist who interviewed the tribe members and who wrote the article mentioned it in passing, as if it were meaningless or did not require any further exploration. If it had been me doing the interview, I can assure you I would have dug deeper.

Since that time, a friend of mine who lives in Cooper City, FL and who is acquainted with James Billie, one of the leaders of the Seminole Nation in that area, I believe, confirmed that indeed the Miccosukee have a legend about snow falling on the 'Glades and have passed this legend down generation to generation (similar to the Hopi and their end times beliefs). I don't know if this traditional belief began prior to the Miccosukee being located in extreme South Florida or since arriving there, though it would seem more likely the latter, since snow falling in Southern Alabama is not quite so unique, or frankly, "earth shaking" as would such an event be if it unfolded in today's Miccosukee territory.
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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Impressive storm off East Coast to bomb out (53 mb / 24 hrs) over Canadian Maritimes: 1003, 996, 984, 963, 951 mb GFS: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/297426227579465 728/photo/1
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Quoting pcola57:


Cooley happens to be my last name..
That is a dark time in our past..
Thanks for posting that IR..


More to it. They were friends until the Miccosuki's decided Cooley as Justice of the Peace had betrayed them by allowing a white man to get away with the murder of an Indian Chief Alibama. Cooley named his two sons after the Miccosuki Chiefs Almonoc, and Montezuma.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2525
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Ohh. What typos?


Comment #27. It wasn't even on the main blog post, he just mixed up the shuttle disaster dates. I guess everyone expects him to be the perfect human.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Sunny and clear, temps in the mid-60s in East Central Florida today. Was mid-80s on Wednesday which is too hot for this time of year. Around 70-75 is just perfect which should be on Sunday.
Should be great weather for the Mount Dora Art Festival this weekend over in the mid-part of Central Florida, north of Orlando.
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94. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks cold-core to me.




Agreed.. It looks past peak too. By OSCAT is was stronger last night. Should be about gone in 1 1/2 days.
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93. Skyepony (Mod)
In a little spot of lower shear. It's vorticity is best around 500mb.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks cold-core to me.




Would agree with you there it has the look of a forming Ex Trop Storm .
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks cold-core to me.




where do you find those high-res sat pics at? May i have the link?
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90. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Has anyone noticed the low pressure in the Atlantic at 25N-40W? Looks to me like we could have some subtropical development (even though the SSTs are 22 deg C....the cold core upper vortex is de-stabilizing things for good t-storms around the surface low).


I called it about 5 days ago. Been posting about it in my blog. It's good swirl watching..

Fresh OSCAT of the Atlantic Low..

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Looks cold-core to me.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Has anyone noticed the low pressure in the Atlantic at 25N-40W? Looks to me like we could have some subtropical development (even though the SSTs are 22 deg C....the cold core upper vortex is de-stabilizing things for good t-storms around the surface low).


Looking at it now interesting .... Seems to be building nicely but I doubt it will be a concern to land of any sort . I did notice both the GFS and euro were showing a low there yesterday for the next few days

Loop Embedded


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
around my area the power company is putting the power cables underground now..a very smart idea that other power companies in this country should follow huh..just how many people..lost power with this last storm?..many thousands and it happens every storm
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1104 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

NYZ012-085-012300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130201T2300Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1104 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SKI COUNTRY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT
LAKE SNOWS TODAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS.
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sometimes..History can be bad huh..........

Hundreds of thousands of Indians already called Florida home when Europeans first arrived in the early 16th century. But it did not take long for the ensuing wars, slave trade and European diseases to nearly wipe out the aboriginal population.
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HAPPY 100TH ANNIVERSARY GRAND CENTRAL... 1913-2013 and counting

The place where I have been many times is now the Centennial Grand Central Terminal, NYC

A picture of the Main Concourse..


The ceiling...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1056 AM CST FRI FEB 1 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AT MORGAN CITY AFFECTING ST. MARY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


That's interesting given they have only been "here" in southern Florida since the late 1820's. It was about 1830 that William Cooley on New River, today's Fr Lauderdale area reported he had new neighbors to his west. This included Arpeika the Miccosuki Medicine Man who led the attack that killed Cooley's wife and children at the onset of the Second Seminole War in southern Florida, January 1836. Before that, they lived in northern Florida near P-cola, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama. Their "original" homelands. I wonder when they developed this end of times legend.


Cooley happens to be my last name..
That is a dark time in our past..
Thanks for posting that IR..
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Cooling off in Florida....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5701
Has anyone noticed the low pressure in the Atlantic at 25N-40W? Looks to me like we could have some subtropical development (even though the SSTs are 22 deg C....the cold core upper vortex is de-stabilizing things for good t-storms around the surface low).
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Expect a heavy snow event to hit in Naples, Florida in the not-too-distant future.

The Miccosukee tribe of Native Americans, who inhabit the Everglades region, have a tradition which states that the signal which portends the end of this current civilization will be when heavy snow falls on their home lands.

WIth climate change and regardless of which direction the overall global temperature scheme is headed in, more and more extreme and "unprecedented" events can be expected. So don't be surprised when the day comes that the Neapolitan area becomes the "Snowipolitan" area.


That's interesting given they have only been "here" in southern Florida since the late 1820's. It was about 1830 that William Cooley on New River, today's Fr Lauderdale area reported he had new neighbors to his west. This included Arpeika the Miccosuki Medicine Man who led the attack that killed Cooley's wife and children at the onset of the Second Seminole War in southern Florida, January 1836. Before that, they lived in northern Florida near P-cola, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama. Their "original" homelands. I wonder when they developed this end of times legend.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2525
Buzz Aldrin (Apollo 11) saluting his comrades on Apollo 1 (Chaffee and Grissom) today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
Quoting Slamguitar:


I assume the petty squabbles over a very insignificant typo by Dr. Masters might have had something to do with it, lol.


Ohh. What typos?
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wow...that storm related to the severe weather damages across the US is now a monster 944 mb low.



after doing some math for 944 mb...

944 mb (equals to 0.944 bars)

944 also read as 27.876"

in addition to that, 944 mb equals to 1,971.58 pounds per square foot in the atmosphere in the area of the lowest pressure of the storm.... wow!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting PedleyCA:


63.4 here. (10:14AM PST) Forecast 77-79) not sure which, but I know it won't be 797°


That really would be global warming ....
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Quoting VR46L:


Not bad 43F but the wind brought it down a notch or two .

but it was dry today for a change


63.4 here. (10:14AM PST) Forecast 77-79) not sure which, but I know it won't be 797°
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Today isn't 12/21/12, LOL


ya know... the ground is still hot from Earth's formation.... lol
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Hows your temps today?


Not bad 43F but the wind brought it down a notch or two .

but it was dry today for a change
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes--especially after it's been scientifically shown over and over and over that things are indeed becoming more "extreme," "wild," "unprecedented" and even "never before seen," "unheard of" and "almost unimaginable".


Expect a heavy snow event to hit in Naples, Florida in the not-too-distant future.

The Miccosukee tribe of Native Americans, who inhabit the Everglades region, have a tradition which states that the signal which portends the end of this current civilization will be when heavy snow falls on their home lands.

WIth climate change and regardless of which direction the overall global temperature scheme is headed in, more and more extreme and "unprecedented" events can be expected. So don't be surprised when the day comes that the Neapolitan area becomes the "Snowipolitan" area.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Today isn't 12/21/12, LOL


I'd hate to be this persons co-workers. I bet they are having a field day on that error....
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Oh, Cr**, Today is going to be HOT... I hope that was a typo on their part.
Today isn't 12/21/12, LOL
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Quoting VR46L:


Too funny !! Needed a laugh


Hows your temps today?
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Why do you say that TA?

WunderGirl12


I assume the petty squabbles over a very insignificant typo by Dr. Masters might have had something to do with it, lol.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Oh, Cr**, Today is going to be HOT... I hope that was a typo on their part.


LOL! :-) that was too funny.

WunderGirl12
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I obviously chose to come on the blog at the wrong time.


Why do you say that TA?

WunderGirl12
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Oh, Cr**, Today is going to be HOT... I hope that was a typo on their part.


Too funny !! Needed a laugh
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842


Oh, Cr**, Today is going to be HOT... I hope that was a typo on their part.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5701
GREAT LAKES REGION IS THE PLACE TO WATCH NEXT FEW DAYS..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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