First tornado death of 2013 ends record 219-day streak without a tornado death

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:50 PM GMT on January 30, 2013

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A powerful tornado ripped through Adairsville, Georgia, northwest of Atlanta, at 11:19 am EST this morning, killing at least one person in a mobile home park. The tornado caused major structural damage in the downtown district, and overturned approximately 100 cars on I-75 near Exit 306 (see eyewitness video here, with swear words.) Eight injuries, some serious, are also being reported from a tornado just southeast of Calhoun, GA around 11:30am EST. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Southeast in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather for Wednesday, a step down from the "Moderate Risk" potential issued on Tuesday for the Midwest. Three other tornadoes have hit Georgia today, and there were 79 reports of wind damage due to high winds as of 2 pm EST along the cold front that triggered today's severe weather, from Alabama to Pennsylvania. Tornado watches continue for a wide swath of the Southeast this afternoon, from Alabama to North Carolina.


Figure 1. Car overturned by the tornado near Adairsville, Georgia, on January 30, 2013. Image courtesy of WSB-TV on http://pic.twitter.com/2lAL0Lmc.



Figure 2. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) images of the tornado that hit Adairsville, Georgia at 11:19 am EST Wednesday, January 30, 2013. Adairsville is under the circle with a "+" in it.


Figure 3. A wild weather day in the Southeast: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged four preliminary reports of tornadoes as of 2 pm Wednesday, along with 79 reports of damaging winds.


Video 1. View of the Adairsville, Georgia tornado of January 30, 2013. Note the blue power flashes as the tornado brings down power lines.

Record string of 219 days without a tornado death ends
Today's fatality ends the longest continuous stretch without a tornado death ever recorded in the U.S.--219 days. The last time the U.S. saw a tornado death was at Venus in Highlands County, Florida, from an EF-0 tornado associated with Tropical Storm Debby on June 24, 2012. The previous record was 197 straight days without a tornado death, which ended on February 28, 1987. Part of the reason for the long stretch without a tornado death during 2012 - 2013 was the relative lack of tornadoes. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the total number of tornadoes during 2012 was just 936. This is the first time since 2002 that fewer than 1000 tornadoes have been recorded. The jet stream was positioned unusually far north in Canada during much of 2012, which brought drought to much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms. Saskatchewan, Canada saw as many tornadoes in July 2012 as all of the U.S., thanks to the more northward position of the jet stream.


Figure 4. June 24, 2012: A tornado spawned by Tropical Storm Debbie crosses Lake Winterset in Winter Haven, Florida. Another tornado from Debbie on this day caused the last tornado death in the U.S., at Venus in Highlands County, Florida. Image credit: wunderphotographer whgator3.

Record moisture and rains
Today's severe weather outbreak was helped by record levels of January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rode northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures were about 0.5°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, precipitable water was well over an inch well into Canada, and three upper air stations--Detroit, MI, Lincoln IL, and Caribou, Maine--set all-time records for January moisture, and four other stations had their 2nd highest January moisture on record. From the 00Z January 30 to 00Z January 31 upper air balloon soundings taken at the 73 radiosonde stations in the contiguous U.S., we observed these record or near-record precipitable water values for January:

Detroit, MI: New Record: 1.21" Old record: 1.20" 1/11/75
Lincoln, IL: New record: 1.46" Old Record: 1.35" 1/12/60
Caribou, Maine: New Record: 1.21" (Ties old record of 1.21" 1/14/2005)
Alpena, MI: 2nd place, 0.99". First place: 1.01", 1/5/97
Buffalo, NY: 2nd place, 1.21". First place: 1.34", 1/15/95
Wilmington, OH: 2nd place, 1.44" First place: 1.51", 1/12/2005
Gray, ME: 2nd place, 1.36" First place: 1.38" 1/20/96

Green Bay (4th), Albany, NY (4th), Sterling, VA (4th), Shreveport (6th), Little Rock (3rd), Nashville, TN (10th), Chatham, MA (10th), and Maniwawi, Quebec (4th) all had top-ten January precipitable water values. Radiosonde data goes back to 1948.

The exceptional moisture led to record rains in many regions of the Midwest, with numerous locations setting daily precipitation records. Two airports recorded their wettest January day on record, including Madison, WI (1.84", previous record 1.80" on January 1, 1892) and Houghton Lake, MI (1.21", old record 1.08" on in 1938.) Top-five wettest January days in recorded history were also set at Muskegon, MI (2.48"), Marquette, MI (1.21"), and South Bend, IN (1.94".) Here where I live, in Southeast Michigan, being outside yesterday was like walking through a surreal white soup. Rains like nothing I've ever seen in January fitfully poured from the sky throughout the day, ponding up on the frozen ground. Eerie white fog swirled over the sodden snow drifts as thunder rumbled overhead in temperatures 25°F above average. What planet was this? The heavy rains of 1.60" that fell in 26 hours at the nearby Flint airport made this month our wettest January in recorded history, with 3.66" of precipitation.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I found these 2 stories on the cars flipped by Tornado.


Storm Flips 100 Cars in Georgia, I-75 Closed near Adairsville




1:50 p.m. EST Wednesday: More details have been released by the NWS about the Adairsville, Ga., tornado. A man was killed in a mobile home near Adairsville. An emergency manager confirms that approximately 100 cars were overturned by the twister near exit 306 on Interstate 75.
The vehicle everyone has seen isn't even on I-75 it is on hwy 140. I have seen no pictures even though every news org from ATL would have to travel right through it or very close to it if it was north and easily witnessed from the bridge that crosses the interstate. I have been on 140 and 41 off of I-75 at least 50 times in Adairsville that is how I knew earlier today that it struck very close to the mobile home park right on the corner of 41 and Poplar Springs it used to be our cut a cross road to get from 140 to 41 to go south to work.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
About 60F up here now, really windy too, high wind warning is up for tonight. What a weather system, this is so weird for January.
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US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
ILM issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Darlington, Florence, Marlboro [SC] till 10:45 PM EST
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This was from earlier today...probably before the heaviest rains hit there. Schools are opening up as emergency shelters. My aunt lives above 2,500ft.





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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA/MD...WASHINGTON D.C.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

VALID 310238Z - 310345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WW
24. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS OR A WEAK TORNADO AFTER 03Z.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS REMAINED UNAFFECTED BY
EARLIER CONVECTION. A LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS N-CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE.
SHOULD THE LINE DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH NWD...SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WW
24 MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF WW
24 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE 07Z EXPIRATION TIME.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 01/31/2013


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 39697762 39687573 37527721 37507904 39697762
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC001-037-081-135-151-310400-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0004.130131T0240Z-130131T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1100 PM EST
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still 70 degrees in Raleigh

Mostly Cloudy
Temperature
70.2 °F
Feels Like 72 °F
Wind(mph)
3.0
Sunrise / Set
7:16 AM
5:40 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
More Astronomy
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Quoting Walshy:
State of emergency in Ashe County, NC. Here are some pictures from my aunt. Lost contact for now things probably got much worse than this. Here in Wilkes County I am doing okay for now...nothing major to whine about compared to that. Still a wind driven rain here and the mountains may end in some light snow.

(nevermind, Facebook pics are not allowed I guess)

To post facebook pics, open the pic in it's own tab/window, then copy the image address, when you post it, take out the "s" in the address for example, https:// take out the s to make it http:// Same goes for twitter photo's

The "s" means it's secure, which is stopping it from being displayed here.
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Quoting Walshy:
State of emergency in Ashe County, NC. Here are some pictures from my aunt. Lost contact for now things probably got much worse than this. Here in Wilkes County I am doing okay for now...nothing major to whine about compared to that. Still a wind driven rain here and the mountains may end in some light snow.

(nevermind, Facebook pics are not allowed I guess)

Take off the "s" in "https" and the picture should show.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
227. MZT
It is a somewhat strange airmass. The rain had passed an hour ago, it has been quiet - and for some reason now, a large gust blew through here. I suppose there must be some tangents of the jet mixing down in places.
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Quoting nymore:
Has anyone been able to confirm the 100 cars overturned on I-75. I think someones excitement got the best of them. The freeway was only closed for about 2 hours or less.

I found these 2 stories on the cars flipped by Tornado.


Storm Flips 100 Cars in Georgia, I-75 Closed near Adairsville




1:50 p.m. EST Wednesday: More details have been released by the NWS about the Adairsville, Ga., tornado. A man was killed in a mobile home near Adairsville. An emergency manager confirms that approximately 100 cars were overturned by the twister near exit 306 on Interstate 75.
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State of emergency in Ashe County, NC. Here are some pictures from my aunt. Lost contact for now things probably got much worse than this. Here in Wilkes County I am doing okay for now...nothing major to whine about compared to that. Still a wind driven rain here and the mountains may end in some light snow.

(nevermind, Facebook pics are not allowed I guess)
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this system is really not moving as fast as thought..it still has a way to go to get to Robeson County (Lumberton)

STORMTRACK 3 Update (8:45 PM)- Line of severe thunderstorms still west of the WWAY viewing area. The line will approach Robeson county after 10 PM, and push toward the coast after midnight. Follow any warnings with us on facebook, and see up-to-the-minute radar displays for any location of your choice at wwaytv3.com



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Quoting nymore:
Has anyone been able to confirm the 100 cars overturned on I-75. I think someones excitement got the best of them. The freeway was only closed for about 2 hours or less.


I can't find anything either. I googled several things and no one has a count, GADOT, NWS, local news, nobody that I can find has a count.
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The systems still looks like it has a lot of energy left in it.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 855 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...WW 25...

DISCUSSION...EXISTING SSW/NNE SQLN WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO MOIST BUT
GRADUALLY STABILIZING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTED IN PART BY
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING TN VLY UPR TROUGH.
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OF
EXISTING CONVECTION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO FROM THE LWR SAVANNAH RVR VLY OF GA/SC E/NE
ACROSS THE SC CSTL PLN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.


...CORFIDI
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CNN has a good track of what is happening today with an eyewitness account from a teenager who lives JUST north of me. Check it out:

List of events for today
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...SRN NJ...DE...ERN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310206Z - 310300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION APPROACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING RECENTLY. AS THIS BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRACK E/NE...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER FLOW /75+ KT 0-6KM
SHEAR/. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS SE PA/SRN NJ INTO DE HAS STARTED TO RECOVER
SOME FROM EARLY SHOWERS/STORMS...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEAKER FURTHER REMOVED FROM UPPER TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY...00Z WAL RAOB SHOWED POORER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO
THOSE AT IAD. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATE THIS EVENING. HENCE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 24.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


NASA's TDRS-K mission... Sensei


Thanks, Grasshopper.
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Warnings are popping up everywhere.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC033-157-VAC019-031-083-089-143-590-310315-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0007.130131T0211Z-130131T0315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CASWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
CITY OF DANVILLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
EXTREME EASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EST
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Damage Surveys Planned for Today and Tomorrow

...TWO NWS DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS FOR TODAY...AND THREE PLANNED FOR
THURSDAY...

THE FIRST SURVEY TEAM WILL HEAD WESTWARD TO SURVEY DAMAGE ALONG A
PATH FROM SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY...TO SOUTHERN DICKSON
COUNTY... AND TO SOUTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTY (FROM SOUTH OF WAVERLY
TO NEAR DICKSON AND TO KINGSTON SPRINGS). THIS SAME TEAM WILL
SURVEY ANOTHER PATH OF DAMAGE FROM HICKMAN COUNTY TO WILLIAMSON
COUNTY (FROM NEAR CENTERVILLE TO FRANKLIN AND BRENTWOOD).

THE SECOND SURVEY TEAM WILL HEAD NORTHWARD TO SURVEY DAMAGE ALONG
A PATH FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY INTO NORTHERN SUMNER COUNTY (SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD TO NEAR PORTLAND). THIS SAME TEAM WILL SURVEY ANOTHER
PATH OF DAMAGE FROM NORTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTY...ACROSS NORTHERN
DAVIDSON AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTY (ASHLAND CITY
TO GOODLETTSVILLE AND GALLATIN).

VIEW OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE FOR THE INITIAL SURVEY
ALREADY COMPLETED THIS MORNING ALONG LEBANON ROAD IN MT. JULIET.

SURVEYS ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCLUDE FINISHING ANY LEFTOVER SURVEYING
FROM TODAY...AS WELL AS SURVEYING DAMAGE IN CANNON COUNTY NORTHEAST
OF WOODBURY...RUTHERFORD COUNTY MAINLY FROM EAGLEVILLE TO
MURFREESBORO...AND ALONG THE WILSON/TROUSDALE COUNTY LINE. OTHER
POSSIBLE DAMAGE PATHS TO SURVEY TOMORROW INCLUDE DAMAGE IN CLAY
AND COFFEE COUNTIES AS WELL.

$$

NWS NASHVILLE
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Has anyone been able to confirm the 100 cars overturned on I-75. I think someones excitement got the best of them. The freeway was only closed for about 2 hours or less.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
902 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

NCC057-067-310215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T0215Z/
DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-
902 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF KERNERSVILLE TO
HIGH ROCK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MADISON TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
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212. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONE TROPICAL FELLENG (07-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 31 2013
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Felleng (960 hPa) located at 18.0S 51.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadratn, and up to 75 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 140 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.4S 51.5E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 21.1S 51.5E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 25.0S 52.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 28.7S 53.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
Overall presentation has not improved over the past 6 hours with a system that still present an embedded center pattern over enhanced infrared imagery that tends to be less and less defined. Water vapor imagery and the ragged aspect of the southwestern edge of the convective mass suggest that the moderate but increasing southwesterly shear is impacting the system.

At 1721z, an AMSU pass with a good fov gave a 85 knots (10 min winds) estimate. As the overall pattern has degraded somewhat since that time, current intensity is assessed at 80 knots.

Felleng current motion is now south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level ridge existing east of the system and extending southward.The ridge is moving north-east of the system, the track should recurve somewhat south southeastward. Numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for the forecast track. The present forecast track is a consensus of the last available models.

The ongoing weakening trend involves a major shift in the intensity forecast philosophy... even if the system should be under the upper level ridge today, the probability of restrengthening appears lower ... as numerical weather prediction fields suggest now that westerly shear should strengthen south of 20S.

Sunday, the system should start its extratropical transition with still some strong winds associated.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar and for the Mascaregnes islands. However inhabitants of that area should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system as peripharical influence could be significant over portions of those regions within the next few days.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC081-151-310245-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0003.130131T0148Z-130131T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
848 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 845 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
STOKESDALE TO 19 MILES WEST OF NEW HOPE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BELEWS CREEK TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Active Outages: 105
Affected Customers: 4332
Last Updated: Jan 30, 8:47 PM

Number keeps going up..

Progress Energy (Electricity)

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As of current data, there are 8 CONFIRMED tornadoes in Middle Tennessee, where I live. The NWS is still checking out the damage.

The worst was EF2 in Mt. Juliet, just east of Nashville, brought severe damage to Lebanon Road, major road here.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
849 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

NCC057-067-310215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T0215Z/
DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-
849 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EST
FOR FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES...
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Quoting Grothar:


What is being launched? I must have missed something.


NASA's TDRS-K mission... Sensei
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5953
205. Skyepony (Mod)
There was about a two minute delay on that video. Beautiful launch.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC007-123-153-167-310245-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0002.130131T0145Z-130131T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
845 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
STANLY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 842 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
RICHFIELD TO 27 MILES WEST OF WHITE STORE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY TO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOCUST...FINGER...
STANFIELD...
RICHFIELD...PLYLER...
OAKBORO...NEW LONDON...
ALBEMARLE...
BADIN LAKE...BADIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8051 3551 8029 3551 7977 3527 7971
3524 7967 3519 7965 3512 7957 3507 7958
3506 7952 3503 7951 3499 7958 3491 7956
3485 7963 3482 7962 3480 7969 3482 8033
3519 8029 3516 8035 3516 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 269DEG 30KT 3552 8038 3484 8071
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Quoting Jedkins01:
>Hopefully I'll see something interesting!

May you live in interesting times.
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DianneG Dianne Gallagher 1m
AppState student checking on his car as flash flood waters begin receding. Still raining, very cold #boone #ncwx @Wcnc pic.twitter.com/M3GCXhSr

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Quoting Grothar:


What is being launched? I must have missed something.


NASA TDRS-K launch

NASA's TDRS-K mission represents the dawn of the next generation of spacecraft in NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) System, which provides a critical communications link to Earth for the International Space Station, the Hubble Space Telescope and many satellites. Launching from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, the TDRS-K spacecraft will be lofted into geosynchronous Earth orbit aboard a two-stage United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC/SOUTHEAST GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 310144Z - 310245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AS SQUALL LINE APPROACHES THE REGION...A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC/SOUTHEAST GA...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PIEDMONT OF SC/SOUTHEAST GA AS OF 0140Z. WHILE OVERALL BUOYANCY
APPEARS TO BE QUITE MINIMAL /REFERENCE 00Z CHS OBSERVED SOUNDING/
WITH A TREND OF DIMINISHING CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE QLCS AND THE
EXISTING INTEGRITY OF THE SQUALL LINE WITHING A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A
TORNADO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL SC/SOUTHEAST
GA.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 01/31/2013


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...

LAT...LON 30858209 32048192 33388049 33287977 32827956 32547978
31838093 30648135 30858209
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Quoting thelmores:
Adairsville, Georgia....... one of the strongest Tornadoes I have ever seen for this time of year!
Most certainly an EF3-EF4, based upon one concrete structure I saw that was full of steel laden concrete..... torn all to hades! It normally takes winds close to 200mile/hr to destroy a concrete structure with rebar reinforced concrete!

Mother nature never ceases to amaze me! Everybody stay safe!!!!
not true. It looks like a single mat of rebar in a max 7inch panel. More importantly though is the size of the bar joist, girders, columns and the welds at the connections. The bar joist look like the minimum size used and the twisted girder does not look very big either, although it is hard to tell size from the photos I have seen. The wind load rating for a 3 second gust is not that high. I will guess 105mph max and probably lower.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Another Mesoscale Added..going to be a long night for the east coast

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I have to wonder why there are warnings in Ohio. I know this is a dynamical system but that is really weak convection, if you want to even call that convective, lol.


I just doubt any severe winds would be at the surface.
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196. Skyepony (Mod)
I lost on the pass draw for this one. Get to watch it from the yard. Camera is ready..though night shots aren't always so great.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
hold is off now....


What is being launched? I must have missed something.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jim Cantore said basically what I was thinking as well...that the Adairsville tornado was an EF3 or EF4.

This tornado is proof that a cell doesn't have to be discrete to produce a significant tornado. The cell that produced the wedge was completely embedded in the squall line.



Of course, there is no physical rule that says it can't happen. Discrete cells just make it a bit easier for a super cell to organize as apposed to line segments. But strong mesos can and do develop along squall lines, probably more often than one might think.
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hold is off now....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5953
Link


Check out how much rain has fallen in Boone NC, incredible. Talk about elevation enhancement of precip, dang.

That's scary though, these regions can't handle a a lot of rain all at once in general. But in the winter, the soil can't absorb hardly any of it...
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TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking
Water rescues reported in Frederick County, MD. One woman pulled from the top of her car in #flood waters.
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about 5 mins to launch .... was in a hold pattern for 25 minutes
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5953
Quoting Skyepony:


No, that is a built in hold. We start clock again at 4 til launch.

ok I just heard them say 1 minute left in the hold so im good now, Thanks!
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188. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Doppler22:

On my live feed its stuck at 4:00.......... has it launched?


No, that is a built in hold. We start clock again at 4 til launch.
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Quoting Doppler22:

It hasn't launched yet?

It went into a 25min hold at 4min. 8:48pm is launch time, so about 6mins till launch
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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