TD 27 struggling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:08 PM GMT on November 14, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Depression 27 formed last night from a tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands, but is struggling to survive in the face of 20-25 knots of wind shear from strong upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean. The storm's low-level circulation center is exposed, and the strong westerly winds are keeping what little deep convection the storm has, confined to its east side. This intensity and area coverage of the thunderstorms on the depression's east side has slowly increased this morning, but unless the shear relaxes and allows some deep convection to persist near the center, TD 27 will not be able to intensify much. Wind shear is expected to remain high today, and I give the shear a 10% chance of completely tearing the depression apart within the next 24 hours.

However, we've seen two systems in the past month, Wilma and Alpha, survive and even intensify in the face of high wind shear. TD 27 has already shown the ability to exist in a highly sheared environment, and I expect it will hold together long enough to take advantage of the lower wind shear expected to develop over the Carribean by Wednesday. The eventual intensity of TD 27 will be highly dependent on its track. If the storm stays in the northern portion of the Caribbean, where wind shear is strong, TD 27 will probably never strengthen to more than a tropical storm. However, if TD 27 can track further south through the southern Caribbean, wind shear is expected to be much lighter. Ocean temperatures are warm enough to allow a hurricane to form, and the GFDL model predicts TD 27 will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by the end of the week.

The computer models did not initialize TD 27 very well in their runs that we have available this morning, so our confidence in the long-term track of TD 27 is low. All the models agree on the basic idea that TD 27 will track westward over the Caribbean for the next five days, under the steering of a strong ridge of high pressure. By the end of the week, the models begin to diverge, with the GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL models strengthening the ridge further, driving TD 27 into Nicaragua or Honduras. The UKMET and Canadian models disagree, and forecast that a trough of low pressure will turn TD 27 northwards in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. TD 27 would then get caught in strong westerly winds, cross Cuba, then scoot through the Bahama Islands to the northeast. No model is indicating that TD 27 will threaten the U.S. mainland, and the storm would have to walk a very narrow tightrope to make it all the way to Florida. With such strong westerly winds blowing across Cuba and the Florida Straights, TD 27 will very quickly recurve away from the U.S. once it gets as far north as Jamaica's latitude.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into TD 27 Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be back with an update late this afternoon when the 7am EST (12Z) model runs are available.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 69 - 19

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

69. subtropic
5:34 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hi cgables, yes. 6am yesterday morning they picked up the first of it. Everyone ran to pile stuff by the road right after the storm. Now they have dead grass in the front yards. I, on the other hand, knew it would be a while [pats self on back] and put it up by the road this past Saturday. My grass is NOT dead. You learn something new every hurricane! This was a lesson from Francis/Jeanne.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
67. rwdobson
5:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
New blog is up, looks like we do have a gamma.

Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
66. StellarCyclone
5:10 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I think the answer for why the intensity predictions for storms was generally and underestimation and why storms such as Wilma intensified so quickly is the temperature of the water below the surface. My guess and I know it's only a guess is that warmer sub-surface water temperatures are also higher and that this needs to be factored in to get better predictions.
65. palmbeacher
5:10 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
cgables, we have trees, fencing, and crap all over.
I don't know when it will be cleaned up.
64. cgableshurrycanegal
5:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
yikes sub, just started? Still working here... and it's still a major mess... So. FL certainly doesn't need another hit. We have trees down that haven't even been touched. And blue roofs? Too many to count.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
63. palmbeacher
5:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good they have a lot more
to pick up! Its still a mess.
62. cgableshurrycanegal
5:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
local ABC station says it doesn't look like we're gonna get it (right now). either watching his back or wants everyone to keep watching and keep ratings up? Also said hurricane strength by SAT.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
61. subtropic
5:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey palmbeacher! They finally started picking up debris here yesterday.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
60. palmbeacher
5:02 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hi Sub, Bye Sub. Have a good one.
59. subtropic
4:59 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Just wanted to say hello all. I won't be able to respond, but I'll be lurking some today.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
58. palmbeacher
4:57 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
wpb05 I agree. It rained last night
and traffic lights were out on hypoluxo
this morning. And all we got was a little
sprinkle.
57. wpb05
4:45 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I strongly believe we will see a Cat. 1 at most. heading into Central America.........or maybe that is what I hope......we just got all of the poer turned back on in PBC, we don't need anything till next year at the earliest.........even if recurvature happens, I don't believe we would take a direct hit, but rather the western edge of a ped up storm over the Bahamas
56. StellarCyclone
4:35 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I think the answer for why the intensity predictions for storms was generally and underestimation and why storms such as Wilma intensified so quickly is the temperature of the water below the surface. My guess and I know it's only a guess is that warmer sub-surface water temperatures are also higher and that this needs to be factored in to get better predictions.
55. DocNDswamp
4:32 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I want to see how TD 27 evolves before I estimate "how low can Gamma go"...bit early in the game for me...not chicken, just being prudent.

Had a thought after torn mentioned severe potential next couple days...maybe psychic Helene's vision of a "dark cloud over Alabama in November" was misinterpreted as tropical...severe tornados along strong front could be a much more likely event.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
54. NOLAinNC
4:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Does anti-cyclonic activity mean it is on top of the TD spinning the other direction? Is it another layer of movement? Is outflow the air moving up and out of the eye? I know I could wikipedia all this stuff, but you guys seem to get to the point faster.
53. squeak
4:27 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good morning...actually shear can induce more convection, that is the normal behavior.

The statement in the discussion regarding TS formation seems on the optimistic side; with the strong shear I do not see the convection successfully wrapping around at this time.

However I thought the rest of the analysis right on the money. If the TD can slide under the forming anticyclone and get that favorable outflow...we could even see a major hurricane.

I am not so bullish on recurvature but am keeping an open mind for the next couple days.
52. palmbeacher
4:23 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Jupiter, everyone on my street had a new
roof put on last year and I am the only one that
kept my shingles on this time. Call it luck! But,
I am the only one that got a window busted out. (the only
one I didn't shutter up) Call that dumb luck!
51. NOLAinNC
4:22 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Thanks for that explanation, Doc. It makes sense.
50. NOLAinNC
4:21 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
977mb - I have no clue, that just popped into my head.
49. palmbeacher
4:21 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Not touching this one!
48. JupiterFL
4:20 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
For us up here in North County the second half of the storm was similar to Jeanne. We got more of Jeanne then they did in West Palm. I also hear people say the damage is much worse in Ft. Lauderdale then in other areas. This is true but you also have to take into account that this is the one area that has not been hit by a storm in the last two years. A little bit of Katrina maybe. Up here in northern Palm Beach county, Martin County and St. Lucie the damage was minimal because everything was cleaned out by the storms in '04. In other words the damage seems much less even though we had the same wind strength. Everyone's roof is new, the weak trees are down, and the power poles are much stronger because they were replaced last year. Anyways I am glad to hear that everyone is ok. This was the fourth time in 14 months that my wife and I had been through the eye of a hurricane. Frances, Jeanne, Emily and Wilma. I never have minded if a few women keep and eye on me.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
47. MandyFSU
4:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I hear ya 21... I just keep telling myself there's no telling. But I agree, I don't think we need to worry about this one. With a little bit of luck we can all stand and wave as she heads out to sea...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
46. Pensacola21
4:13 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
No predictions here, lol. Not this year!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
45. weatherdude65
4:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
ok..I will be the negative one of the bunch...put me down for 965mb
44. Pensacola21
4:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Mandy - We shouldn't have to worry about this one.. However, with this year, who knows??
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
43. palmbeacher
4:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Thanks Elliston
42. Pensacola21
4:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I'm not sure what this one (TD27) will do, but if I were in SFL I would be keeping an eye on the lil' sucker...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
41. EllistonVA
4:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
palmbeacher -glad to have you back!
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
40. DocNDswamp
4:08 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good morning all,
Upper level wind shear, when not too excessive, can actually help develope a cyclone by evacuating tops of T-storms...it's essentially what is occurring w/ an anticyclonic upper high anchored over a tropical system.
It has really been true this year these systems that tenaciously fight thru excess shear and survive...seem to have strengthened more than estimated, like it toughened them up.

Torn,...your right, will be a wide area w/ that potential since this is the strongest front yet...huge temp and airmass difference.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
39. EllistonVA
4:08 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I spent some time working in Evansville. I have to admit that I have a deathly fear of tornados. I was nervous the whole time I was there, and I was happy to leave. I also never realized that growing up in the mountains makes one rather uncomfortable when you can see so far. It was just interesting to see how you really notice the big open spaces when you're only used to being able to see a couple of miles before a mountain obstructs your view. Kinda neat though to be able to see a car coming from so far away.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
38. MandyFSU
4:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good, Pensacola... just hoping this one stays way far away so we can take our good luck and run with it.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
37. Pensacola21
4:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Wow, I bet...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
36. palmbeacher
4:06 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
yeah I stayed home. During the eye
we hooked up the generator and watched the
back part come at us on a little t.v. It was much worse than the front part. After the double hit last year (jeanne, Frances) I didn't think it would be to bad.
Boy was I wrong. This one was worse.
35. Pensacola21
4:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hi Mandy, how are ya?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
34. MandyFSU
4:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I'm going to hope for higher pressure- 989...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
33. MandyFSU
4:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey 21!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
32. Pensacola21
4:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I'm so glad you are okay! So you rode it out huh?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
31. palmbeacher
4:02 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey 21! Life is good.
Still here.
30. tornadoty
4:02 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
I'm in NW IN, in the slight risk.

My guess for Gamma is 942 MB.
29. palmbeacher
4:00 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Doing fine. Got back to work
last Wed. waiting to get my window
replaced in my kitchen. Also, going to
replant all my landscping this week. Still
have my roof so I am happy. All my neighbors shingles
from up the street were in my yard, so still picking up.
28. 8888888889gg
3:59 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
put me in for 970mb
27. Pensacola21
3:59 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey all... Can you believe this???

HEY PALMBEACHER, HOW ARE YA???
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
26. weatherdude65
3:58 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Palmbeacher!!! Welcome back :-) Yeah we did fine, a lot of rain, about 12 inches, but that was it. No wind damage. How are you doing?
25. weatherdude65
3:56 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
As long as it stays to the south, then I am happy.
24. palmbeacher
3:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey weatherdude. Hope you faired well during
Wilma.
23. 147257
3:54 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
does anyone see a more westerly track in it ?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
22. EllistonVA
3:53 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
tornadoty - where are you at?
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
21. MandyFSU
3:53 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Good... just stunned at this new development, although, given the past few months, I probably shouldn't be. :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
20. weatherdude65
3:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
Hey mandy!! I'm doing well. How have you been?
19. MandyFSU
3:49 PM GMT on November 14, 2005
weatherdude! How are ya?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525

Viewing: 69 - 19

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
53 °F
Overcast