Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Record January warmth and moisture fueling April-like severe weather

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:42 PM GMT on January 30, 2013

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An April-like severe weather outbreak accompanied by record warmth and atmospheric moisture continues today over the Southeast U.S., where a powerful cold front is creating severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and tornadoes over the Southeast. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged four preliminary reports of tornadoes along with 264 reports of damaging winds on Tuesday, and another 71 reports of damaging winds between 7 am and 12 pm EST so far this Wednesday. A powerful tornado hit Adairsville, Georgia at 11:19 am EST this morning, and there are reports of major structural damage in the downtown district, with cars overturned (see eyewitness video here, with swear words.) The spring-like surge of warm air accompanying the severe weather outbreak has broken numerous daily high temperature records. The most notable heat record set Tuesday was the 91°F high in Corpus Christi, Texas, which tied their record for all-time warmest January temperature, set on January 30, 1971. The 62°F measured at Rockford, Illinois on Tuesday was just 1° shy of that city's all-time January temperature record. Tornado watches are posted for a wide swath of the Southeast today, from Alabama to Virginia, and numerous tornado warnings have been issued this morning. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Southeast in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather on Wednesday, a step down from the "Moderate Risk" potential issued on Tuesday for the Midwest.

Figure 1. A wild weather day in the Heartland: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged four preliminary reports of tornadoes on Tuesday, along with 264 reports of damaging winds.

Figure 2. Satellite image of the U.S. taken at 9:45 am EST January 30, 2013. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 3. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Southeast in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather on Wednesday.

Record moisture and rains
Accompanying the exceptional January warmth yesterday were record levels of January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rode northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures were about 0.5°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, Tuesday night, precipitable water was well over an inch well into Canada, and two upper air stations--Detroit, MI and Lincoln IL--set all-time records for January moisture. From the 00Z Wednesday January 30 upper air balloon soundings taken at the 73 radiosonde stations in the contiguous U.S., we observed these precipitable water values for January:

Detroit, MI: New Record: 1.21" Old record: 1.20" 1/11/75
Lincoln, IL: New record: 1.46" Old Record: 1.35" 1/12/60
Alpena, MI: 2nd place, 0.99". First place: 1.01", 1/5/97
Buffalo, NY: 2nd place, 1.21". First place: 1.34", 1/15/95

Green Bay (4th), Shreveport (6th), and Little Rock (3rd) all had top-ten January precipitable water values. Radiosonde data goes back to 1948.

The exceptional moisture led to record rains in many regions of the Midwest, with numerous locations setting daily precipitation records. Two airports recorded their wettest January day on record, including Madison, WI (1.84", previous record 1.80" on January 1, 1892) and Houghton Lake, MI (1.21", old record 1.08" on in 1938.) Top-five wettest January days in recorded history were also set at Muskegon, MI (2.48"), Marquette, MI (1.21"), and South Bend, IN (1.94".) Here where I live, in Southeast Michigan, being outside yesterday was like walking through a surreal white soup. Rains like nothing I've ever seen in January fitfully poured from the sky throughout the day, ponding up on the frozen ground. Eerie white fog swirled over the sodden snow drifts as thunder rumbled overhead in temperatures 25°F above average. What planet was this? The heavy rains of 1.60" that fell in 26 hours at the nearby Flint airport made this month our wettest January in recorded history, with 3.66" of precipitation.

Jeff Masters

Lifting (YouKnowWho)

What a rollercoaster we've been on, weather-wise, around here. We've had recent snow, freezing rain, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and now a very foggy morning. I went out to capture the fog as it began to lift, or so I thought, as it's still hanging around as I write this. We'll reach the 50s today and will be in the teens by Thursday!

H2O over ice... (linear)

ice fishing has been suspended...

Categories: Severe Weather Extreme Weather Heat

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101. LargoFl 6:55 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

102. LargoFl 6:57 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
hope georgia stormz is ok up there.......... Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

103. GeorgiaStormz 7:01 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
weak rotation heading to atl: Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7050

104. LargoFl 7:01 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
One storm produced a tornado in Adairsville, Ga., where the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center is reporting "major structural damage," cars overturned and people trapped. One person has been reported killed. The storm struck late Wednesday morning in the town northwest of Atlanta. The Associated Press reported the storm demolished a home and left at least 10 cars overturned. Officers noted that at least one apartment building in the town was "pretty much destroyed," numerous vehicles had been overturned and a mobile home park had suffered extensive damage. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

106. GeorgiaStormz 7:04 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43: There you go, Georgia Stormz. You got your severe weather. Happy? actually i didnt get my severe weather. all i got was rain. and others got hurt. that makes me not happy Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7050

107. LargoFl 7:04 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

112. JNCali 7:06 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Anybody know how much stronger this event would have been if the GOM moisture was warmer like in late Spring/Summer? is it that simple? Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1022

113. LargoFl 7:06 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
HIGH WIND WARNING. FLOOD WATCH. TORNADO WATCH. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIPPERY ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

114. LargoFl 7:08 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting JNCali: Anybody know how much stronger this event would have been if the GOM moisture was warmer like in late Spring/Summer? is it that simple? Quoting JNCali: Anybody know how much stronger this event would have been if the GOM moisture was warmer like in late Spring/Summer? is it that simple? ..well its not too different than a strong tropical storm..matter off fact i was just thinking that when i went outside before..winds are about the same Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

115. GeorgiaStormz 7:08 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting JNCali: Anybody know how much stronger this event would have been if the GOM moisture was warmer like in late Spring/Summer? is it that simple? there would have been more CAPE which means stronger staller storms that have heights of 40k+ feet, large hail, and violent tornadoes. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7050

116. trHUrrIXC5MMX 7:09 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7873

117. LargoFl 7:10 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
windy in texas............. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

118. Skyepony (Mod) 7:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking National Weather Service confirms 1 fatality in a mobile home due to Adairsville, GA tornado. Long streak w/o tornado deaths has ended. It breaks an all time record back to 1950 of longest streak without a single tornado fatality, 220 days. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

119. LargoFl 7:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Thousands were reported without power in Tennessee Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22412

120. Luisport 7:16 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Mansion owners in Roswell (rappers & actors) should move their luxury cars inside -- I'd suspect some hail & wind debris is imminent. Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1211

121. Skyepony (Mod) 7:23 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
1100 AM FLASH FLOOD SYLACAUGA 33.18N 86.26W 01/30/2013 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR LAKE TERRACE STREET FLOODED WITH CARS UP TO THE WINDOWS OF SOME CARS. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

122. JNCali 7:24 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: there would have been more CAPE which means stronger staller storms that have heights of 40k+ feet, large hail, and violent tornadoes. Thanks GS, I'm hoping for a mild Spring and Summer this year! Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1022

123. Skyepony (Mod) 7:28 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Trees & powerlines down across much of WNC. 1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HENDERSONVILLE 35.32N 82.46W 01/30/2013 HENDERSON NC COUNTY OFFICIAL SEVERAL TRESS DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY SINCE 6 AM THIS MORNING. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

124. lostinohio 7:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
It will take weeks to clean up Adairsville area. I worked less than 1/2 mile from the impact area. It is a mess down there. Vehicles crushed,everywhere all over the highway. There were many plants in the area. It was a Miracle that so far there has only been 1 fatality. I-75 is still closed in both directions, and state roads along I-75 are also blocked with trees. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 80

125. Skyepony (Mod) 7:34 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
NWS Huntsville reporting several structure damages from this morning. 0415 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE ROGERSVILLE 34.82N 87.29W 01/30/2013 LAUDERDALE AL BROADCAST MEDIA CUMBERLAND PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH STEEPLE BLOWN OFF. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. 0521 AM TSTM WND DMG MT HOPE 34.46N 87.48W 01/30/2013 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR SHED ROLLED OVER WITH POLES PULLED FROM GROUND. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. 0605 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE ADDISON 34.23N 87.11W 01/30/2013 CULLMAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR MOBILE HOME AND BARN IN ROAD ON CR 1043 CULLMAN/WINSTON COUNTY LINE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

126. MrMixon 7:34 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting Skyepony: 1100 AM FLASH FLOOD SYLACAUGA 33.18N 86.26W 01/30/2013 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR LAKE TERRACE STREET FLOODED WITH CARS UP TO THE WINDOWS OF SOME CARS. The street is flooded with cars? Up to the windows of some cars? That sounds terrible... good thing the street isn't also flooded with water or they'd have a huge mess on their hands... (Being pedantic in the face of natural disaster might seem uncouth, but I'm pretty sure nobody was injured in Talladega, so I forgive myself.) Speaking of flooding, training of storms along that front is producing some impressive totals in Alabama and Georgia. Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 954

127. Skyepony (Mod) 7:40 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
NWS Jackson, KY report trees down everywhere. Some counties are reporting things like almost all county roads blocked. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

128. Tropicsweatherpr 7:40 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
TORNADO WARNING GAC145-199-231-263-285-293-302015- /O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0006.130130T1930Z-130130T2015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 230 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HARRIS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHEASTERN TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA * UNTIL 315 PM EST * AT 228 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HAMILTON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS...SHILOH...WARM SPRINGS...MANCHESTER... GREENVILLE...WOODBURY...MOLENA...GAY...CONCORD...Z EBULON AND WILLIAMSON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA. && LAT...LON 3321 8459 3319 8449 3317 8426 3261 8484 3261 8509 3268 8511 TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 216DEG 48KT 3275 8484 $$ Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8094

129. ChillinInTheKeys 7:42 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting Skyepony: NWS Jackson, KY report trees down everywhere. Some counties are reporting things like almost all county roads blocked. Wow, that's one long report! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

130. Skyepony (Mod) 7:44 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting MrMixon: The street is flooded with cars? Up to the windows of some cars? That sounds terrible... good thing the street isn't also flooded with water or they'd have a huge mess on their hands... (Being pedantic in the face of natural disaster might seem uncouth, but I'm pretty sure nobody was injured in Talladega, so I forgive myself.) Speaking of flooding, training of storms along that front is producing some impressive totals in Alabama and Georgia. That explains the dozens of flooding reports from AL.. I made light of one lastnight, the wfo kept using AS WELL in about every report. The stress of this event has shown in the storm reports. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

131. Skyepony (Mod) 7:48 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Nashville's is really long.. They had a bad night. 0245 AM TORNADO 4 SSW WHITE BLUFF 36.05N 87.24W 01/30/2013 DICKSON TN NWS STORM SURVEY NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED THAT AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG WHITE BLUFF RD IN SOUTHEAST DICKSON COUNTY AROUND 245 AM WHERE MINOR TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OCCURRED. THIS TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO KINGSTON SPRINGS IN SOUTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTY WHERE DOZENS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED ALONG CRAGGIE HOPE RD. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

132. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 7:50 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

133. trHUrrIXC5MMX 7:52 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST.... ____________________________________ Red shades indicates tornado-risk area Tstorms expected to move into the NE by midnight or later Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7873

134. FatPenguin 8:05 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43: February March, April, and the early part of May will be unseasonably cold as that usually follows a warm January... Watch. 2012 begs to differ. Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 307

135. chrisale 8:27 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Is there another word for "smash"? Toronto International Airport, (which indicates records going to 1936) obliterated its previous high temperature record for this day of 9.1C set in 2006 when it hit 13C! Link "Normal" is -2C However, it did not set an extreme maximum for the month which is still 16.7C set on January 25th, 1950. Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60

136. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:41 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
WOCN11 CWTO 302051 Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 3:51 PM EST Wednesday 30 January 2013. ------------------------------------------------- -------------------- Special weather statement for: City of Toronto Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent Sarnia - Lambton Elgin London - Middlesex Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand Oxford - Brant Niagara City of Hamilton Halton - Peel York - Durham Huron - Perth Waterloo - Wellington Dufferin - Innisfil Grey - Bruce Barrie - Orillia - Midland Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland Kingston - Prince Edward Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac Bancroft - Bon Echo Park Brockville - Leeds and Grenville City of Ottawa Gatineau Prescott and Russell Cornwall - Morrisburg Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake Parry Sound - Muskoka Haliburton Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay Algonquin Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet. Temperatures on a roller coaster with rapidly changing weather Conditions to end the month of January. ------------------------------------------------- -------------------- ==discussion== A strong Colorado low will track northeast to reach Lake Huron by this evening. Very mild air associated with this system has given remarkable temperatures in the double digits to Southern Ontario with new maximum temperature records in many areas today. As the deepening Colorado low moves across Georgian Bay into Quebec tonight, it will drag a sharp Arctic cold front east across the entire district, bringing this second January thaw to a quick end. Temperatures will plunge fairly quickly to below freezing accompanied by strong and gusty westerly winds. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 km/h are expected in many areas. A wind warning is in effect for areas near the east end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where 100 km/h gusts are expected. Wind warnings may be necessary in other areas if the winds become any stronger than currently forecast. Since the showers are expected to end before temperatures drop below freezing tonight, a flash freeze is not currently expected as brisk winds will help most well drained surfaces to dry out before the temperature drops below zero. However surfaces in poorly drained areas that remain wet will freeze and become icy tonight, making travel conditions locally hazardous tonight as a result. As much colder air continues to get ushered in by strong west to northwest winds Thursday, winter will return with a vengeance especially in the snow belt regions to the southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Flurries and snow squalls are expected to quickly develop in these regions with significant amounts of snow possible. Travelling conditions in these regions will quickly become hazardous due to quickly accumulating snow and very low visibility in blowing snow and bursts of heavy snow. Snow squall watches have been issued over the regions to the south of Georgian Bay and to the east of Lake Huron. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca. End Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375

137. code1 7:27 AM GMT on February 09, 2013
Siri is not all that great u know. Ahh well, we do have other trusted friends Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

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