April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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Arkansas radar................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Things will get interesting if and when the discrete super cells start to form. I am not expecting to see much from these broken squall lines. Btw I think this would be a good time to join the weather chat.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
I'm having trouble spotting the rotation on GRLevel3. Hopefully the next couple of image will clear it up so I can locate the rotation. There's 80 knots marker up though at the border of Arkansas/Missouri just SW of Branson.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
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MO tornado warning..........A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN TANEY AND STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CST...

AT 418 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF KIMBERLING CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

.A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW MELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE STREAM RISES.
RIVER FLOODING IS THEN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.

PAZ026>028-035-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>06 6-302000-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0001.130130T1800Z-130201T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SULLIV AN-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUM BIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS -YORK-LANCASTER-
258 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ADAMS...COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...
DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA ...
LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHUMB ERLAND...
PERRY...SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER...SOUTHERN LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...
UNION AND YORK.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WILL PUSH SMALLER AREA WATERWAYS
HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN POSE A THREAT
FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SMALL
STREAMS...CREEKS...POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

DANGELO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Quoting LargoFl:
yes sure looks that way so far, still a day or two away, but it IS headed to the east coast and northward it seems

Ok thanks, its a good thing I did some tree trimming over the summer, or there would be a chance i'd be pancaked Wednesday night
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Quoting Doppler22:

That shows S. PA under heavy thunderstorms too... Do u think that'll reach PA?
yes sure looks that way so far, still a day or two away, but it IS headed to the east coast and northward it seems
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Nice couplet in southern Missouri.

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Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy..east coast get ready for tomorrow etc..NAM...

That shows S. PA under heavy thunderstorms too... Do u think that'll reach PA?
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Branson, MO under the gun again I see
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I hope so Sherwood! Don't know if our friends to the south will be as lucky, but hoping they are.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 783
oh boy..east coast get ready for tomorrow etc..NAM...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583










Mobile does a good job on their graphics
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When does the main event start?
anytime just before or after 10 pm when the kicker kicks in
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Another tornado warning, this time in SSW Missouri.

424
WFUS53 KSGF 292212
TORSGF
MOC209-213-292300-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0003.130129T2212Z-130129T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WESTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 408 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIMBERLING CITY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANSON WEST...BRANSON...CAPE FAIR...EDGEWATER BEACH...FORSYTH...
GALENA...HOLLISTER...INDIAN POINT...KIMBERLING CITY...KIRBYVILLE...
KISSEE MILLS...LAMPE...MERRIAM WOODS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE...
REEDS SPRING...RIDGEDALE...ROCKAWAY BEACH...SILVER DOLLAR CITY...
TABLE ROCK AND WALNUT SHADE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES BULL SHOALS LAKE...TABLE ROCK LAKE AND
TABLE ROCK STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9358 3665 9358 3691 9344 3685 9334
3682 9334 3682 9327 3668 9300 3650 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 217DEG 54KT 3654 9349

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

KARDELL


Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting dabirds:
Had noticed it lighten up to our west around 2:30, but figured it was a little late to heat up, guess not. Quite a bit of lightning starting again SW of metro, so who knows? Keep your eyes on the skies Sherwood. Looks like it will be getting my way at sunset.


The front edge announced its arrival with a massive crack of lightning, immediately followed by buckets of rain. Not nearly as much wind as I was expecting, and not much lightning after that first big one.
Now its just raining moderately hard and we really need it. No damage reported from the spinups either. So this might turn out to be very beneficial.
Looks like we dodged a bullet here.
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looks like your under the gun tonight also ..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
345. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:



Thank You it only took me a few fails to find the correct result. problem was it was right at the top and I didn't look and started clicking stuff, but I found it. Cool, I like it. Color coded too. Lows Red and High Blue. Nice...
Thanks again.


Your Welcome .

Its a nice site explains about the way they name areas of highs and lows and that the money earned via the scheme goes towards education and research.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
When does the main event start?
I'd guess when the southern portion gets closer to the MS river, maybe before.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 783
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
About a hour ago, we had a confirmed tornado near Natural Dam, AR. It was strong looking rotation on radar, strong enough to have 120 knots marker on GRLevel3. Thankfully, the only damage from this storm appear to be fallen trees.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When does the main event start?

Late evening and continuing into the overnight hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting VR46L:


Yes of course My pleasure. Yes T is for low, its a German Map

.met.fu-berlin.de adopt a vorex site



Thank You it only took me a few fails to find the correct result. problem was it was right at the top and I didn't look and started clicking stuff, but I found it. Cool, I like it. Color coded too. Lows Red and High Blue. Nice...
Thanks again.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There have been 23 damaging wind reports, 14 hail reports, and a confirmed tornado so far today. The threat for severe weather is expected to progress eastward overnight, intensifying in the process as the main upper-level energy moves through. In a sense, the event has not even started yet.
When does the main event start?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
There have been 23 damaging wind reports, 14 hail reports, and a confirmed tornado so far today. The threat for severe weather is expected to progress eastward overnight, intensifying in the process as the main upper-level energy moves through. In a sense, the event has not even started yet.

Just getting this out there before everybody starts saying the event was hyped.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ILZ003-004-008-010-011-019-300130-
/O.CON.KLOT.FA.A.0001.130129T1800Z-130130T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-LA SALLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...
DEKALB...OTTAWA
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...BOONE...DE KALB...LA SALLE...LEE...OGLE AND WINNEBAGO
COUNTIES.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. MUCH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE FROZEN
GROUND...WITH ONLY THE TOP FEW INCHES OF SOIL HAVING
THAWED...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
BECOMING RUNOFF AND RESULTING IN A RAPID RISE TO AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS.

* FLOODING OF LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES AND FLOODING
ON AND NEAR AREA RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Clickable if you want to read the (MCD) text But I'm posting this because the graphic illustrates the cold front and the warm sector relationships. Been generating those tor warnings in E OK and into NW AR.


Likewise with this one.
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TORNADO WATCH 9 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

DOUGLAS OZARK TANEY
WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTON...AVA...BRANSON...CABOOL...
EMINENCE...FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...GAINESVILLE...HOUSTON...
MANSFIELD...MOUNTAIN GROVE...ROLLA...SALEM...THAYER...THEODOSIA...
VIENNA...WAYNESVILLE...WEST PLAINS...WILLOW SPRINGS AND WINONA.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Had noticed it lighten up to our west around 2:30, but figured it was a little late to heat up, guess not. Quite a bit of lightning starting again SW of metro, so who knows? Keep your eyes on the skies Sherwood. Looks like it will be getting my way at sunset.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 783
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
331. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Do you have a link to that map. What does the "T" mean? Is that the equivalent of our "L" for Low?


Yes of course My pleasure. Yes T is for low, its a German Map

.met.fu-berlin.de adopt a vorex site
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Quoting VR46L:


43░ F at the moment not to bad and 50mph winds but like I said more en route ....




Do you have a link to that map. What does the "T" mean? Is that the equivalent of our "L" for Low?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
yeah MA weather fire danger is real HIGH in texas alright..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy, look at all that red...............

Some of those high winds in Texas are contributing to a pretty serious fire threat. Unfortunately, due to drought, it's likely going to be another bad fire season.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EMERGING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. LARGE SCALE
FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENING POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BEFORE A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING AND
ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
MPH...IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING BY EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Honestly, I don't know. I would guess v1 since I got it about a year ago, but I don't really know the difference.
I was just wondering. There was a makeover of GRLevel3 v2 in update 2.10. It look like this now:



But if you like GRLevel3 the way it is, it's fine :) I'm just giving you a head up that there's a new update.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting TomTaylor:
For those who were still thinking we would see record cold finish to the late winter, I've got more bad news.





This is the 16 day average temperature anomaly from the 12z GEFS. ECMWF EPS is even warmer. CMC Ens is on similar terms.

Models have come into much better agreement and it now looks like the first half of February will be above average for most of the nation. Looks like the only areas which wont be above average for the first half of February will be the northern plains and possibly some of the mountain west states (though the graphic above doesn't necessarily reflect this). Central Great Plains will be the warmest. We will get a nice cold blast from Feb 1-3 and again around the 6th and 7th, but after that ridging kicks in. This seems to be the theme of the winter so far, periodic blasts of severe cold followed by mostly above to well above average temperatures giving us an overall above average temperature throughout winter so far.


I'm not saying this will happen...

But historically, some of the most powerful arctic outbreaks to hit North America have taken place as isolated occurrences during winters that were predominantly warmer than normal overall. There also have been legendary storm systems that took place during winters that were unremarkable otherwise, or which did not include much else in the way of dramatic snowfall and/or severe weather events.

Some examples include the "Great Blizzard" (and record-breaking arctic cold wave) of February 10-15, 1899, The Florida freeze of December 12-15, 1962 happened in a year similar to this one, when most of the cold was confined to more northern latitudes but the SE US had a warmer than normal winter.

The legendary arctic outbreak in mid-January 1985 happened in a winter that was relatively normal across most of the nation that year, outside of that one event.

The Christmas 1989 heavy snow and deep freeze event in the Southeastern US (where parts of Florida actually had a White Christmas for the first time in known history) took place in a winter that was mostly above average in temperature aside from that one event.

And don't forget that in March of 1993, the Great Superstorm of '93 happened at a time when most expected that winter was done. Atlanta, Georgia saw its heaviest snow event in history happen in that storm, with 16" dumped on that city and completely paralyzing it for days. Many other stations in the south and also in the Mid-Atlantic regions recorded either their heaviest or near-record highest snow totals for a single storm in that event. And in Florida it snowed as much as 5" (unofficially) in much of the Panhandle and produced a record-breaking derecho which killed "dozens of people" around the rest of the state. At least half of those deaths resulted from wholly unexpected storm surges in the state's Big Bend region, however. But tornadoes also killed about half dozen people in the state in that storm.

There are other examples as well from other years, obviously. But of course, this winter could wind up like last winter, ending early and followed by record-breaking warmth in the Spring, without any more significant cold and snow-related winter events. But it is too soon yet to suggest that no more big cold and snow events can happen this season, as it is only late January.
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322. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


I see most of that storm got past you. It looked nasty this morning. So, how bad was it today over there. What's your temp. I have 58.5 and happy
to get that.


43░ F at the moment not to bad and 50mph winds but like I said more en route ....


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oh boy, look at all that red...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 292146Z - 292345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS PERSIST BUT HAVE NOT BEEN SEVERE. SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ENOUGH TO MOVE
OFF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN BACKED FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE UPDRAFT MASS
IS BEING DIFFUSED BEHIND THE STORMS...PERHAPS MINIMIZING DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HIGHER E
OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY STILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
TX.

..JEWELL.. 01/29/2013
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
just looked out in the gulf..tons of moisture laden clouds all headed northward
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
Figured that cell was weakening since it lost most its lightning, then it develops a hook - go figure. Glad it slid by you Sherwood! That's not as populated an area as a few miles east, fortunately, but not completely rural either.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 783
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Is your radar a GRLevel3 v1 or v2?

Honestly, I don't know. I would guess v1 since I got it about a year ago, but I don't really know the difference.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting VR46L:




Swap you two my weather ....you are more than welcome to it at the moment



I see most of that storm got past you. It looked nasty this morning. So, how bad was it today over there. What's your temp. I have 58.5 and happy
to get that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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