April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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its going to be quite a rough night
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
There is not much of a severe threat anymore with the line in Texas as far as I can tell. They are no longer surface based but elevated and slightly post-frontal. It sure was an adventure driving through them earlier today though!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS 12 hour forecast..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting beell:
So, is this trough gonna like, move?

Quoting beell:
So, is this trough gonna like, move?

yeah its been pretty much in the same place for a long time now,those folks are really getting hit hard.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CST

* AT 716 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF CARTHAGE...OR 14 MILES WEST OF
GRAYS LAKE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
SHERIDAN... WHITE HALL... LAMONT...
CARTHAGE... SULPHUR SPRINGS... PRAGUE...
HARDIN... GRAPEVINE... FARINDALE...
WEST END... SLABTOWN... SHERIDAN MUNI ARPT...
PLAIN VIEW... OAKLAND HEIGHTS... MILLERVILLE...
LEITNER... JUNET... IVY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 38.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3743
460. beell
So, is this trough gonna like, move?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARC097-127-149-300130-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130130T0130Z/
MONTGOMERY AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
CST...

AT 708 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ODEN...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MT IDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
MUDDY CREEK WMA... MAULDIN... SIMS...
PENCIL BLUFF... GIBBS... CHULA...
ALY... WHITETOWN...
ROCKY SHOALS REC AREA...
RIVER BLUFF REC AREA... LONE PINE MTN...
KELLY MTN... FULTON BRANCH REC AREA...
DRAGOVER REC AREA... CHASEWOOD LANDING... BLOWOUT MTN...
BIG BRUSHY REC AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ARKANSAS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
MARION COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN BAXTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL VAN BUREN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WESTERN SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CST

* AT 646 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF LAKEWAY TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LUDWIG LAKE. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA IN THE PAST 2 HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF IN SOME AREAS DURING THE WARNING
PERIOD...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY HIGH WATER TO RUNOFF.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
YELLVILLE... LOST VALLEY SP... JASPER...
HARRISON... CLARKSVILLE... BULL SHOALS...
ZACK... WOODLAND... WITTS SPRING...
WININGTON... WILLIS... WESTERN GROVE...
WALNUT... VALLEY SPRINGS...
UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA... SPADRA...
SOLO... SMYRNA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting Thrawst:
Had a feeling 8pm would be the turning hour... now it's going!
yeah NWS said that earlier, tonight it gets stronger, its what i was worried about, catching the people when they are sleeping..gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500

Schools announce delays ahead of severe weather threat on Wednesday
Updated: Jan 29, 2013 8:02 PM EST


Approximate severe weather threat times on Wednesday. (National Weather Service) Approximate severe weather threat times on Wednesday. (National Weather Service)

With the threat of severe weather hitting North-Central Alabama early Wednesday morning, several schools will delay opening to students and teachers.

Forecasters say clashing weather systems are creating a chance for severe weather in Alabama.

The National Weather Service says severe storms with damaging winds, heavy rains and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The weather service says winds gusting to 60 mph are possible in southwest Alabama, and winds up to 45 mph are possible further north.

You can get the latest information regarding severe weather in Alabama at the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Little Rock is under the gun. Rotation is weak for now, but that could change fast. Keep your eyes on this storm.


SRV:

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
Had a feeling 8pm would be the turning hour... now it's going!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
MSC151-300145-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0007.130130T0107Z-130130T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
707 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AVON...LELAND...HOLLANDALE...

* UNTIL 745 PM CST

* AT 707 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTH OF
GLEN ALLAN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ESTILL AND HOLLANDALE BY 715 PM CST...
DARLOVE BY 720 PM CST...
TRIBBETT AND LELAND BY 725 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting redwagon:


Don't see Bohonk around so I'll speak for him: we got 37 raindrops here in Centex.
thanks for the info, i was hoping bohonk would come online, guess he's busy
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND INCREASE THROUGH MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. RECENT RAINS AND THE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR TREES
TO BE UPROOTED WITH GREATER EASE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
The tail end of this front is really starting to get its act together. Seeing 40 mph gust out of the S where I am. This has an April feel to it. It's going to be dangerous out there tonight folks. Be safe.


Don't see Bohonk around so I'll speak for him: we got 37 raindrops here in Centex.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NE TX...NRN
LA...AR...NW MS...WRN TN...SE MO...SRN IL...FAR SW IND AND WRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS....ARKLATEX....LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AN 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING
SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL HELP A SQUALL-LINE TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE.
MODEL FORECASTS STRONGLY INTENSIFY THE LINE LATE THIS EVENING
DRIVING A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THE
SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AND SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT EVENTS APPEAR
LIKELY.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM NE TX NEWD INTO CNTRL AR WHERE THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 1100 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WAS
CO-LOCATED WITH A POCKET OF MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE LITTLE
ROCK SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW MULTIPLE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. AS THESE CELLS MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR
AND INTO THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. AT LITTLE ROCK...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES OF 500 TO 600 M2/S2 AND LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 700 METERS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS THAT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE. 50 TO 60 KT OF FLOW AT 1
TO 2 KM SHOULD ALSO MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AS THE SQUALL-LINE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. THE WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WCNTRL TN...ECNTRL MS
AND WRN AL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY...
A SQUALL-LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM ECNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS SE MO
LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A PRONOUNCED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL
JET. AS THIS JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE THE
SQUALL-LINE TO ORGANIZE WITH THE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS IND AND WRN
KY LATE THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SHOULD ENABLE
THE SQUALL-LINE TO BECOME AN EFFICIENT WIND DAMAGE PRODUCER. AS SFC
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 01/30/2013

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
Little Rock, AR, is under a tornado warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
705 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CST

* AT 702 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF TULL...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
BENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
SW LITTLE ROCK... SHERWOOD... N LITTLE ROCK ARPT...
NORTH LITTLE ROCK... JACKSONVILLE... DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK...
LITTLE ROCK ARPT... BRYANT... WRIGHTSVILLE...
TULL... SYLVAN HILLS... SWEET HOME...
SHANNON HILLS... PROTHRO JUNCTION... OTTER CREEK...
MCALMONT... MABELVALE... LEVY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 148 AND 166.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 430 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9249 3444 9267 3493 9225 3493 9223
3495 9223 3481 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 217DEG 51KT 3447 9250

$$

51
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
folks with weather alarm radios,keep them on tonight..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
New convective outlook for tonight is out from the SPC, no real changes, just a confirmation that the event is progressing as expected and should continue to intensify in the next couple hours.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I'm not saying this will happen...

But historically, some of the most powerful arctic outbreaks to hit North America have taken place as isolated occurrences during winters that were predominantly warmer than normal overall. There also have been legendary storm systems that took place during winters that were unremarkable otherwise, or which did not include much else in the way of dramatic snowfall and/or severe weather events.

Some examples include the "Great Blizzard" (and record-breaking arctic cold wave) of February 10-15, 1899, The Florida freeze of December 12-15, 1962 happened in a year similar to this one, when most of the cold was confined to more northern latitudes but the SE US had a warmer than normal winter.

The legendary arctic outbreak in mid-January 1985 happened in a winter that was relatively normal across most of the nation that year, outside of that one event.

The Christmas 1989 heavy snow and deep freeze event in the Southeastern US (where parts of Florida actually had a White Christmas for the first time in known history) took place in a winter that was mostly above average in temperature aside from that one event.

And don't forget that in March of 1993, the Great Superstorm of '93 happened at a time when most expected that winter was done. Atlanta, Georgia saw its heaviest snow event in history happen in that storm, with 16" dumped on that city and completely paralyzing it for days. Many other stations in the south and also in the Mid-Atlantic regions recorded either their heaviest or near-record highest snow totals for a single storm in that event. And in Florida it snowed as much as 5" (unofficially) in much of the Panhandle and produced a record-breaking derecho which killed "dozens of people" around the rest of the state. At least half of those deaths resulted from wholly unexpected storm surges in the state's Big Bend region, however. But tornadoes also killed about half dozen people in the state in that storm.

There are other examples as well from other years, obviously. But of course, this winter could wind up like last winter, ending early and followed by record-breaking warmth in the Spring, without any more significant cold and snow-related winter events. But it is too soon yet to suggest that no more big cold and snow events can happen this season, as it is only late January.
When I make those long range outlooks I am looking at average conditions. Right now most models would suggest that February will be above average for most of the Great Plains and the South. With that said, sure an occasional blast of cold can happen. In fact, there is one on its way right now

ECMWF Temperature Anomalies @72hrs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee arkansas is getting hammered,tornados,flash flooding,high winds etc
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
658 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN YELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 650 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE MISSOURI FALLS REC
AREA...OR 18 MILES WEST OF MT IDA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
ODEN... MUDDY CREEK WMA... MAULDIN...
SIMS... PINE RIDGE... PENCIL BLUFF...
GIBBS... CHULA... ALY...
WHITETOWN... ROCKY SHOALS REC AREA...
RIVER BLUFF REC AREA... NORTH FORK LAKE...
LONE PINE MTN... KELLY MTN... HUDDLESTON...
HOG JAW... GRAPEVINE MTN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 9364 3478 9345 3443 9382 3454 9399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 219DEG 53KT 3456 9384

$$

58
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
for Georgia..............
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR VALUES COMBINING TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY
FRIDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THESE EVENTS WILL SUPPORT SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

DMG
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting AllyBama:
Thanks for the update LargoFl...looks like Alabama met, James Spann will be quite busy!
..yeah I guess he will be busy..this storm front really has to be watched closely alright, strange for a storm like this in January..more like a change of seasons spring storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Thanks for the update LargoFl...looks like Alabama met, James Spann will be quite busy!
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Quoting LargoFl:
this has changed..now severe....................


Unfortunately it may get even worse. The south winds are just fueling this thing. This looks like an April set up. People need to be safe and adhere to warnings especially since this type of system isn't common during these months.
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this has changed..now severe....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
435. Skyepony (Mod)
As the tail passes through the Gulf of Mexico some places Cedar Key & Apalachicola, tonight it is Sabine Pass, TX.. will see a 1 to 1 1/2ft surge then the tide go out farther than usual.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARC003-017-LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123 -300700-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.A.0010.000000T0000Z-130130T0700Z/

TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

ASHLEY CHICOT

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 PARISHES

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...CROSSETT...DELHI...
DERMOTT...EPPS...EUDORA...FERRIDAY...HAMBURG...HA RRISONBURG...
JONESVILLE...LAKE PROVIDENCE...LAKE VILLAGE...NEWELLTON...
NORTH CROSSETT...OAK GROVE...RAYVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...TALLULAH...
VIDALIA...WATERPROOF...WEST CROSSETT...
WEST FERRIDAY AND WINNSBORO.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
WDEmobmet.....UGH! the "kick" here in Mobile is NOT what I want to here....lol
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Salt Lake city smog approaches beijing levels

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2013/01/29/s alt-lake-city-smog-approaches-beijing-levels/
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000
WUUS54 KSHV 300024
SVRSHV
TXC423-499-300130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0015.130130T0024Z-130130T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WHITEHOUSE...TYLER...
SOUTHERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MINEOLA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES WEST OF MINEOLA TO 25 MILES WEST OF BULLARD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TYLER...HOARD...LINDALE...HAWKINS...TROUP AND ARP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 9560 3276 9515 3256 9514 3256 9509
3254 9508 3254 9504 3255 9502 3252 9502
3251 9499 3215 9499 3214 9545 3225 9548
3229 9546 3236 9546 3243 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 245DEG 40KT 3274 9557 3214 9567

$$

13
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The deep south isn't the only area to watch for big storms tonight as parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri will likely be under a watch soon.

Mesoscale discussion #79
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's never a good thing to hear Dr. Forbes say, "this is not what we want to see."
you know this is getting pretty scary huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
TORNADO WARNING
MSC011-151-300130-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0006.130130T0023Z-130130T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BOLIVAR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHELBY...SHAW...CLEVELAND...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 624 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINTERVILLE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAMONT AND WINTERVILLE BY 645 PM CST...
SCOTT BY 650 PM CST...
BENOIT BY 655 PM CST...
SHAW BY 705 PM CST...
BOYLE BY 710 PM CST...
RENOVA AND CLEVELAND BY 715 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 9066 3362 9066 3362 9076 3356 9077
3343 9106 3345 9108 3338 9113 3339 9119
3341 9121 3343 9114 3347 9112 3350 9117
3345 9117 3344 9123 3350 9118 3353 9122
3366 9109 3368 9104 3370 9105 3379 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 220DEG 41KT 3336 9126

$$

JA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
It's never a good thing to hear Dr. Forbes say, "this is not what we want to see."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
The tail end of this front is really starting to get its act together. Seeing 40 mph gust out of the S where I am. This has an April feel to it. It's going to be dangerous out there tonight folks. Be safe.
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424. Skyepony (Mod)
0100 PM TSTM WND DMG HOLTS SUMMIT 38.64N 92.12W
01/29/2013 CALLAWAY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

METAL SHED BLOWN OVER INTO A NEIGHBORS YARD.
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423. Skyepony (Mod)
0315 PM TORNADO 4 N MARTHASVILLE 38.69N 91.05W
01/29/2013 WARREN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SIDING DAMAGE... 16 FOOT STRIPS BLOWN ONE QUARTER MILE
DOWNWIND... OVERHANG BLEW OFF SHED... PICKED UP WATER
TANKS AND MOVED THEM... TREE TOPS SHREDDED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. Skyepony (Mod)
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W OZARK 35.49N 93.92W
01/29/2013 FRANKLIN AR EMERGENCY MNGR

MOBILE HOME MOVED OFF FOUNDATION


&&

$$

SFP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain is here, nothing to severe. Joined StL & Spfld in dropping into 50s. Nowhere to go but down, near single digits again Thurs. morning, then back up for Super Bowl Sunday.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 733
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAKE VILLAGE...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 610 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE VILLAGE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE VILLAGE AND MCMILLAN CORNER BY 620 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 9124 3351 9118 3344 9123 3345 9117
3350 9117 3347 9112 3343 9114 3341 9121
3339 9119 3339 9112 3345 9106 3342 9106
3313 9140 3317 9146 3328 9146 3352 9130
3352 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 214DEG 48KT 3324 9138

$$

BYB
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Best looking storm of the day so far for a potential for strong tornadoes...
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A lot to look at tonight.

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ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT tornadoes is better than "signficant long tracking tornadoes." Hopefully we won't see that kind of wording for a while...:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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