April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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Gulf of Mexico Weather Conditions at 27 deg 35 min N
and 92 deg 17 min W Wind South (170 Deg T) at 30 kts gusts to 35 kts Wave Height 7 ft (avg)....
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You can see the two main lines of severe storms in both images. The one out front is the one of concern tornado wise right now with numerous warnings issued. The second line is mainly a damaging wind threat. Both lines should continue all through the night and even strengthening some. Hopefully people in the paths of these storms have some kind of way to be warned as night-time severe thunderstorms/tornadoes are extremely dangerous.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not to go off topic but I do think this should be noted...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JAN 2013 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 14:48:38 S Lon : 53:41:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 968.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees




It is still weather so there is nothing wrong with posting it. Actually that is really looking good there. Hopefully the eye doesn't hit Madagascar.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
820 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-301030-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WI.Y.0002.130130T1400Z-130130T2300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOL E...EGLIN AFB
820 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

* WINDS...15 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE...UNSECURED OBJECTS CAN ALSO BE
BLOWN AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.
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Strong rotation near Columbia, LA. People in that area should take shelter!

BV:



SRV:

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Way too close for comfort...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not to go off topic but I do think this should be noted...


Felleng appears to be under rapid intensification. But the good news is that it is highly unlikely to hit Madagascar or the Reunion and Mauritius Islands.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
504 - Yes its exciting to see what Tesla is doing. With the available science/mathematics knowledge base and available technology, there's no reason we can't seem much more break through situations like the model-S with Tesla.

I saw a video from Edmunds.com and they said that S model did their 105 mile loop test twice and then 52 extra mile so the thing has range. Let me see if I can find the link.

electric car test

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506. beell
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Yeah, that bugger isn't in any kind of hurry. It sure is digging though.



210m 12hr height falls on that same chart earlier this evening. 50mph wind gusts in Midland, TX in its wake. Probably a good thing it's not moving east very fast.
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You can really see the contrast in temperatures..

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Oh, the technology is out there alright, it's just usually obscenely expensive or comes at the price of longevity. What those at Tesla Motors have done with the Model S is very impressive.



Yes its exciting to see what Tesla is doing. With the available science/mathematics knowledge base and available technology, there's no reason we can't seem much more break through situations like the model-S with Tesla.

I'm kind of disappointed in much of modern engineering, or at least what becomes widely available to the public. I'm glad Tesla has the guts to take the risk that they are by coming up with real innovative engineering instead of the same old same old of most name brand vehicles that are over-advertised as if they are futuristic because they have technology companies fit computers into their dash boards. While in realty the vehicle itself is just the same old engineering that runs off ancient dinosaur bones, lol.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are any TV stations providing live streaming of this severe weather?


Geoff..
I saw where someone had posted a link for live streaming but after a quick look back can't seem to locate it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to go off topic but I do think this should be noted...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JAN 2013 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 14:48:38 S Lon : 53:41:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 968.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
JEDKINS!!!!...you be careful up there.................



Oh don't worry I am tracking it very carefully of Course :) I'll spend all day after school doing so tomorrow!

I'm just not posting much about it because the blog is loaded with severe weather posts at the moment and mine will likely be bi-passed, lol.
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Possible tornado on ground in Louisiana near Georgetown.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Are any TV stations providing live streaming of this severe weather?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami NWS Disco

THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO BEHAVE LIKE MOST FRONTS HERE...ACCOMPANIED BY A
DECAYING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST TO THE LAKE AND LESSER CHANCES EAST COAST.

THE COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED AS SUCH SO THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH FL. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THU NIGHT WITH LOWS BY FRI MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AND IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS OVERALL, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE AND ONSHORE AS
THE HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING TO PREVAIL.

For West Palm Beach...At least they lowered the high temps...

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well this is my last post..good night and stay safe folks...TORNADO WARNING
ARC139-LAC111-300245-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0003.130130T0208Z-130130T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HUTTIG...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST

* AT 802 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES SOUTH
OF STRONG...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUTTIG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LAPILE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
806 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

MSZ011-012-020-300230-
TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-PANOLA MS-
806 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEBB AT 806 PM CST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN PANOLA...QUITMAN AND TALLAHATCHIE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Quoting JeffMasters:
Corpus Christi, Texas hit 91%uFFFDF on Tuesday, tying their record for all-time warmest January temperature, set on January 30, 1971. The 62%uFFFDF measured at Rockford, Illinois on Tuesday was just 1%uFFFD shy of that city's all-time January temperature record.

Jeff Masters


Wow..
Thanks Dr. Masters..
Quite a difference for them (Corpus Christie TX) now at 72 degrees..
Forecast low of 49 tonight..
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gee one after another.............TORNADO WARNING
ARC029-051-097-105-125-149-300230-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0009.130130T0157Z-130130T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
757 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN YELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CONWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 749 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAP CREEK REC AREA...OR 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OUACHITA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
LAKE OUACHITA... OLA... NIMROD LAKE...
MEYERS... LENA LNDG REC AREA... GAP CREEK REC AREA...
ADONA... SILVER... NIMROD...
MT TABOR... HOMEWOOD... HOLLIS...
FOURCHE JUNCTION... FANNIE... DEBERRIE...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS... CENTERVILLE... CASA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Quoting Jedkins01:
Thought the technology wasn't out there to make powerful electric vehicles that compete with gas ones yet? Think again:



folks that's no ordinary car that the Tesla model S is racing either, that's a dodge viper 8 liter V10.

Granted the car is mighty pricey, but its not actually that bad when you consider its impressive performance. Long battery life too.

Oh, the technology is out there alright, it's just usually obscenely expensive or comes at the price of longevity. What those at Tesla Motors have done with the Model S is very impressive.
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Tornado warned storm in northern LA:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
490. JeffMasters (Admin)
Corpus Christi, Texas hit 91°F on Tuesday, tying their record for all-time warmest January temperature, set on January 30, 1971. The 62°F measured at Rockford, Illinois on Tuesday was just 1° shy of that city's all-time January temperature record.

Jeff Masters
JEDKINS!!!!...you be careful up there.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 540
PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 9...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BOW ECHOS AND SUPERCELLS SEEM TO BE THE
GREATEST RISK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
VERY STRONG AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY...90KT+ WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM COUPLED WITH EXTREME
SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TORNADOES
.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.


...HART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thought the technology wasn't out there to make powerful electric vehicles that compete with gas ones yet? Think again:



folks that's no ordinary car that the Tesla model S is racing either, that's a dodge viper 8 liter V10.

Granted the car is mighty pricey, but its not actually that bad when you consider its impressive performance. Long battery life too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow THIS has changed, now im gonna get a piece of this storm....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WHITE...EASTERN VAN BUREN...STONE...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SEARCY...
SOUTHERN IZARD...WESTERN INDEPENDENCE...NORTHERN FAULKNER...
NORTHEASTERN CONWAY AND CLEBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

AT 737 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LUNENBURG TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF LUBER TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
QUITMAN...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN VIEW... MELROSE... HEBER SPRINGS...
GREERS FERRY LAKE... FAIRFIELD BAY... CLINTON...
WHIPPLE... TWIN GROVES... STELLA...
SPRINGFIELD... SHIRLEY... ROSE BUD...
QUITMAN... PANGBURN... OLD LEXINGTON...
MALLET TOWN... LUNENBURG... LUBER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ARKANSAS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Jefferson, AR storm got rotation on BV image:

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 11 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC017-023-031-035-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-20 1-207-223-
300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0011.130130T0115Z-130130T0700Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT ST. FRANCOIS STE. GENEVIEVE
STODDARD WAYNE
$$


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
TORNADO WARNING
MSC011-083-133-300230-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0008.130130T0126Z-130130T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
726 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LEFLORE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN BOLIVAR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SHAW...
SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PARCHMAN...RULEVILLE...INDIANOLA...
DREW...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 725 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOLLY RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HOLLY RIDGE BY 735 PM CST...
INDIANOLA BY 740 PM CST...
SHAW BY 745 PM CST...
SUNFLOWER BY 750 PM CST...
BLAINE BY 755 PM CST...
RULEVILLE BY 800 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
here is their best guess timing...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
TORNADO WARNING
ARC053-069-085-119-300215-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0008.130130T0141Z-130130T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
741 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 737 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHERIDAN. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
LONOKE... TOLTEC MOUNDS SP... SISEMORE...
REDFIELD... PINE BLUFF ARSENAL... METO...
KEO... HENSLEY ISLAND... ESTES...
ENGLAND... WRIGHT... TUCKER...
TOLTEC... SEATON... SAMPLES...
PRAGUE... PETTUS... JEFFERSON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 178.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Good news for Little Rock is that it appears very weak based upon radar data. Probably was a brief spin-up.

A stronger area of rotation is in that cell to the SE.. headed toward Jefferson along I-530.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
alot of warnings in arkansas now..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A reported tornado is headed for Little Rock, Arkansas.

I think it's in that area that is passing really close to the radar site. It's hard to tell though.



Velocity data isn't super helpful either.



*EDIT: Next few radar frames just came in. Yeah, that's definitely it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Under a severe thunderstorm warning now. The rain is coming down outside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Little Rock storm is now TORR storm or Tornado Reported storm. Take cover, Little Rock!

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SALINE AND EASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CST...

AT 716 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF SHANNON HILLS...OR 5 MILES EAST OF BRYANT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
SW LITTLE ROCK... SHERWOOD... N LITTLE ROCK ARPT...
NORTH LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK AFB... JACKSONVILLE...
DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT... SYLVAN HILLS...
SWEET HOME... SHANNON HILLS... PROTHRO JUNCTION...
OTTER CREEK... OLMSTEAD... MCALMONT...
MABELVALE... LEVY... LAKEWOOD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 149 AND 163.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 430 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 3.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 8.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
Hurricane-Riding Microbes Make a Home at Cruising Altitude

By David Biello January 29, 2013

Sample a hurricane's air from a plane high in the stratosphere and, in addition to the expected water and grit, you'll find an abundance of microbes. Swept up from land and sea by the tropical cyclone's power, the skyborne bacteria persist in the atmosphere for days - and some may even thrive there.

A new survey of the tropospheric skies reveals that even as much as 10 kilometers up, microbes are a constant presence. Indeed, 17 individual bacterial species have been found in every air sample taken so far, suggesting that they may live way up there. The results of this 2010 survey conducted by scientists aboard NASA flights were published online in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on January 28.

...

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2013/01/29/hurricane-riding-microbes-make-a-home-a t-cruising-altitude/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC067-073-183-203-315-365-401-423-459-300215-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0018.130130T0117Z-130130T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
717 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RUSK...JACKSONVILLE...
GREGG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WHITE OAK...LONGVIEW...KILGORE...
GLADEWATER...
HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MARSHALL...
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HENDERSON...
EASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WHITEHOUSE...
UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GILMER...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 716 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
EAST OF GILMER TO NEAR KILGORE...TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN SMITH COUNTY EARLIER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274
@TWCBreaking
Police reported a #tornado near Mablevale, AR just before 7:30p CT. This is heading into the Little Rock metro. #arwx
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Quoting beell:
So, is this trough gonna like, move?


Yeah, that bugger isn't in any kind of hurry. It sure is digging though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
its going to be quite a rough night
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42274

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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