April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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eastern states, this morning is Time to prepare......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie

Breakfast is simple this morning, muffins and donuts. I just got home from the hospital. My daughter's fiance's mother died suddenly from a heart attack. I've been with my daughter and Riley's family all night. It's going to be a long day at school today.

Weatherwise, there was a tornado north of me. No damage that I've heard of. But the weather's now east of me. Under a wind advisory for the rest of the day.
good morning, sorry about your loss, try to get some rest today and stay safe up there ok,yes its going to be a long day for sure.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
431 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
OCCUR. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OVER 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TREE LIMBS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNED AND LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ENTIRE TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN
AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO...THE WINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie

Breakfast is simple this morning, muffins and donuts. I just got home from the hospital. My daughter's fiance's mother died suddenly from a heart attack. I've been with my daughter and Riley's family all night. It's going to be a long day at school today.

Weatherwise, there was a tornado north of me. No damage that I've heard of. But the weather's now east of me. Under a wind advisory for the rest of the day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe up there hydrus, your state is dotted with warnings
Been alright so far. It appears the the cell near Lawrenceburg is headed towards us here in McMinnville. Hoping for the the best of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
KYC021-045-079-137-155-301130-
/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0013.130130T1057Z-130130T1130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
557 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BOYLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN GARRARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN CASEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 630 AM EST...

* AT 554 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAVEL SWITCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
LANCASTER...
DANVILLE...
ALUM SPRINGS AND PARKSVILLE...
CALDWELL MANOR AND JUNCTION CITY...
LITTLE NEEDMORE AND CLIFTON...
MARKSBURY AND BOURNE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Quoting hydrus:
White County looks like it was hit by an intense cell. Hope they made out o.k.
stay safe up there hydrus, your state is dotted with warnings
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
White County looks like it was hit by an intense cell. Hope they made out o.k.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guess tonight is our turn 40's crashing into humid 80's........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
Good Morning Folks! coffee is perked, going to be A long DAY HUH, THATS REALLY A bad STORM FRONT!..have a safe day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39044
551 RitaEvac: [Video of] Massive Tumbleweeds rolling over road in Midland TX today with gusts to 50mph
565 SteveDa1: Wow! My impressions were that tumbleweeds were lonely and usually lived single lives (I guess it comes from the familiar desert scene where you would only see one tumbleweed streak across when it's quiet) but they look very social indeed.

What I always found amazing is that while the tumbling tumbleweed is emblematic of the American West(ern), it's actually a relatively recently arrived invader from Russia.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's been going all night there, must be a lot of atmosphereic energy.
I took a quick peek outside, it does look sinister out there. Tornado warnings for all local counties here . Tornado siren went off about 5 minutes ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Only three confirmed tornadoes? So far, this hasn't exactly lived up to fame as a Moderate Risk event.

Damaging wind tally is pretty impressive, though.

It's been going all night there, must be a lot of atmosphereic energy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here it comes..Tornado warnings for many counties in Mid-TN..Damage reported in a lot of places..Prayer time for me.
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One person dead in Bordeaux, Tennessee (north of Nashville) confirmed by police. The person was taking shelter from the storm in a shed -WSMV
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
TNC003-055-117-119-301030-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0019.130130T0956Z-130130T1030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
356 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 AM CST

* AT 351 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF LEWISBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISBURG AND PETERSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8710 3560 8688 3558 8639 3536 8657
3537 8658 3536 8660 3533 8659 3532 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 249DEG 38KT 3549 8684

$$

07
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


TORNADO WARNING
TNC015-041-149-159-189-301030-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0018.130130T0953Z-130130T1030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
353 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CANNON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WESTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 AM CST

* AT 351 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MULTIPLE TORNADOES WAS LOCATED NEAR WALTERHILL...OR 12 MILES NORTH
OF MURFREESBORO. TORNADOES MAY FORM RAPIDLY ANYWHERE IN THIS LINE
OF STORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SMITHVILLE...WATERTOWN...GORDONSVILLE...AUBURNTOWN ...ALEXANDRIA...
LIBERTY AND DOWELLTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 8580 3585 8653 3608 8653 3607 8652
3610 8651 3611 8653 3613 8653 3614 8654
3617 8654 3622 8583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0953Z 262DEG 46KT 3602 8632

$$

SHAMBURGER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


TORNADO WARNING
TNC003-117-149-187-301015-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0017.130130T0946Z-130130T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
346 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 342 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES EAST OF SPRING HILL...OR 17 MILES NORTH
OF LEWISBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MURFREESBORO AROUND 405 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8672 3585 8669 3586 8617 3570 8621
3571 8623 3570 8623 3569 8624 3555 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 248DEG 45KT 3571 8666

$$

07
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
Felleng:

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593. Skyepony (Mod)
13S FELLENG

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592. Skyepony (Mod)
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591. Skyepony (Mod)
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590. Skyepony (Mod)
FELLENG
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Good morning. I gathered a few tornado warnings from the overnight hours.


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
435 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

KYC029-111-300955-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130130T0955Z/
JEFFERSON KY-BULLITT KY-
435 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 455 AM EST FOR NORTHERN
BULLITT AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

AT 433 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD TO CEDAR GROVE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM IS MOVING INTO ST MATTHEWS.

* THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
LOUISVILLE...
VALLEY STATION...
ST. MATTHEWS...
SHIVELY...
PLEASURE RIDGE PARK...
OKOLONA...
THIXTON AND MOUNT WASHINGTON...
ROUTT AND WHITFIELD...
FISHERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 8554 3827 8541 3811 8543 3809 8547
3801 8551 3799 8549 3792 8583 3795 8587
3794 8590 3802 8593 3809 8590 3816 8591
3823 8585 3823 8581 3829 8577 3827 8574
3830 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 258DEG 39KT 3826 8565 3801 8562

$$

RAS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
TNC111-159-165-169-189-301015-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0016.130130T0935Z-130130T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
EASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 333 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MULTIPLE TORNADOES WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WESTMORELAND TO BELINDA CITY. TORNADOES MAY FORM
RAPIDLY ANYWHERE IN THIS LINE OF STORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBANON...HARTSVILLE...LAFAYETTE...CARTHAGE...WEST MORELAND...RED
BOILING SPRINGS AND SOUTH CARTHAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8580 3622 8587 3617 8653 3666 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 268DEG 45KT 3663 8627 3619 8641

$$

SHAMBURGER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
TNC037-149-187-189-301000-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0015.130130T0927Z-130130T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 AM CST

* AT 323 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MULTIPLE TORNADOES WAS LOCATED NEAR BRENTWOOD...OR 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN. TORNADOES MAY FORM RAPIDLY ANYWHERE IN THIS
LINE OF STORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NOLENSVILLE...LA VERGNE...SMYRNA...RURAL HILL...BELINDA CITY AND
WALTERHILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 8612 3586 8618 3585 8678 3615 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 254DEG 50KT 3598 8669

$$

SHAMBURGER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
322 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

TNC037-165-189-300945-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130130T0945Z/
SUMNER TN-WILSON TN-DAVIDSON TN-
322 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST...

AT 319 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WHITE HOUSE TO LAKEWOOD...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...LEBANON...GREEN HILL AND MOUNT JULIET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 8626 3635 8629 3634 8627 3619 8627
3616 8673 3646 8666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0922Z 258DEG 44KT 3644 8656 3620 8660

$$

SHAMBURGER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
TNC117-119-187-301000-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0014.130130T0916Z-130130T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
316 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 AM CST

* AT 314 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF SPRING HILL...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
COLUMBIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN MAURY AND SOUTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8718 3594 8662 3579 8663 3579 8666
3577 8666 3575 8670 3572 8670 3569 8664
3560 8665 3559 8712
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 248DEG 45KT 3573 8701

$$

TORNADO WARNING
TNC111-159-165-169-189-301015-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0016.130130T0935Z-130130T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
EASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 333 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MULTIPLE TORNADOES WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WESTMORELAND TO BELINDA CITY. TORNADOES MAY FORM
RAPIDLY ANYWHERE IN THIS LINE OF STORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBANON...HARTSVILLE...LAFAYETTE...CARTHAGE...WEST MORELAND...RED
BOILING SPRINGS AND SOUTH CARTHAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8580 3622 8587 3617 8653 3666 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 268DEG 45KT 3663 8627 3619 8641

$$

SHAMBURGER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
588. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Pre-Alert (Yellow) is in force for Reunion island
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587. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FELLENG (07-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 30 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng (950 hPa) located at 15.1S 53.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.8S 52.7E - 95 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 18.3S 52.0E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 21.0S 52.0E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 24.3S 52.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
The eye pattern has improved within the past 6 hours. Eye is warming within a very cold ring of deep convection around. SSMIS picture at 02.04z depicts a ring of intense convection that is now very well defined.

Feleng current motion is now south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level high pressures existing northeast of the system. Available numerical weather prediction models remains in good agreement about the forecast track.

On the forecast track, environmental conditions remains favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature are very good at 28-29C, wind shear becomes weak under the upper level ridge. A very good upper level outflow has built equatorward and should improve eastward by 24 hours.

From Thursday evening system is expected to take a southward to south southeastward track. Saturday evening or Sunday morning it should encounter environmental conditions slowly degrading. Sea surface temperature more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken sharply.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar. However inhabitants of that area and inhabitants of the Mascaregnes islands should continu to closely monitor the progress of this system. On and after Wednesday, a substantial weather deterioration is expected on Mascareignes archipelago.
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Squall line is passing by now.. tornado siren gone off 3 times.. radar looks okay.. no major hail yet.. top wind sustained maybe 2 minutes at less than 60mph est.. heavy rain now tornadic cell to the South East and moving toward Nashville..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
.
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Only three confirmed tornadoes? So far, this hasn't exactly lived up to fame as a Moderate Risk event.

Damaging wind tally is pretty impressive, though.
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Felleng looks impressive on visible imagery; its northern outflow is excellent, and the eye looks well-defined.

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Quoting Seattleite:
It's rather amusing that you say 3 months from now it starts all over, because the season actually starts in 4 months... oh wait the official start of the season doesn't mean anything anymore... maybe it'll start in April this year?
jan is done pretty much and feb march april is 3 that makes it may 1 14 days before the start of east pacific season and 29 days till start of the atlantic season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

MSC119-135-300600-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130130T0600Z/
TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN QUITMAN AND CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE COUNTIES...

AT 1149 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VANCE...OR 15
MILES WEST OF CHARLESTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BRAZIL...
DENTON...WAVERLY...LONGSTREET AND STOVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 9040 3410 9043 3421 9034 3405 9015
3399 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 227DEG 40KT 3413 9025
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TORNADO WARNING
KYC157-300615-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0018.130130T0540Z-130130T0615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST.

* AT 1139 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH
OF BENTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
BENTON...HARDIN AND AURORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 8819 3675 8811 3675 8846 3685 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 254DEG 40KT 3677 8839
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1129 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

* AT 1125 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SEDALIA...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MAYFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MURRAY...HARRIS GROVE...KIRKSEY AND HAZEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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Byron, Nebraska:

Snow with areas of blowing snow before 4am, then snow likely between 4am and 5am, then a chance of snow after 5am. Low around 21. Blustery, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Good god, I had no idea tumble weeds were present in such an abundance like that. Those winds were strong.

I hope that system brings us some rain. I have given up on an Arctic air outbreak for the winter. Lowest temperature this January has been 42F, this must be a record.


Had upper 20s one morning, left sensitive plants out and leaves got nipped, already had to cut the limbs back
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
watch it spit on ya for 2 minutes


Brief spouts of moderate rain downpours and that's all she wrote, wind gusting hard out of the NW now
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It's rather amusing that you say 3 months from now it starts all over, because the season actually starts in 4 months... oh wait the official start of the season doesn't mean anything anymore... maybe it'll start in April this year?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Massive Tumbleweeds rolling over road in Midland TX today with gusts to 50mph

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XBZ9qYDxFs&fe atur e=player_detailpage



Good god, I had no idea tumble weeds were present in such an abundance like that. Those winds were strong.

I hope that system brings us some rain. I have given up on an Arctic air outbreak for the winter. Lowest temperature this January has been 42F, this must be a record.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Time to stick head out door and watch a lil rain
watch it spit on ya for 2 minutes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
isaac and sandy will likly be the two retired named storms as well for 2012

in 3 months it starts all over again

only 40 days or so till spring
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
Time to stick head out door and watch a lil rain
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wondering if they'll upgrade Sandy to our second major hurricane.


Undoubtedly the question on the minds of most of the blog, right there.

The suspense is killing me!!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
Quoting SteveDa1:


Wow! My impressions were that tumbleweeds were lonely and usually lived single lives (I guess it comes from the familiar desert scene where you would only see one tumbleweed streak across when it's quiet) but they look very social indeed.


I live along the coast, so I know nothing about those things, but I sent it to Jeff Masters by WunderMail
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566. Skyepony (Mod)
TX/AR lots of trees down, attacking houses cars, electricity..another trailer over. Barns aren't fairing well either.

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 W WINNSBORO 32.96N 95.43W
01/29/2013 WOOD TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CARPORT AND FRONT PORCH BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. A TREE FELL
THROUGH THE HOUSE AS WELL.



0720 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW BOSTON 33.46N 94.42W
01/29/2013 BOWIE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH AN 18 WHEELER
BLOWN OVER AS WELL.


0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SSW FOUKE 33.17N 93.93W
01/29/2013 MILLER AR EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE BARN DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA. A TRAILER OVERTURNED AS WELL. NEAR CR413 OFF OF
CR6.




This event is bringing on the excessive use of as well..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.