April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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Dewpoints near the mid-50's all the way up to Chicago. I'm speculating but that must be quite rare for this time of year.

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Hurricane Sound Waves Could Aid Forecasting

JAN 25, 2013 02:00 AM ET // BY CHARLES Q. CHOI,

Hurricanes generate sound waves detectable through the air thousands of miles away, which could be a good way to measure the wave conditions near these storms, a new study suggests.

Such findings could help improve models to predict and prepare for dangerous storms, the scientists behind the study said.

Hurricanes can generate winds of more than 160 mph (250 kph), whipping up the sea surface to waves up to 70 feet (20 meters) high. When one such ocean wave slams into an equally tall wave traveling in the opposite direction, the collision results in low-frequency sound waves in the atmosphere that scientific instruments can hear thousands of miles away. These infrasound signals are known as microbaroms.

...

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-e vents/hurricanes-make-sound-waves-130125.htm
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Quoting 1900hurricane:


SPC AC 291620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (10:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


That's a good sized Moderate Risk for today's event... hope folks are prepared for this weather!
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Dr.Forbes went up on his numbers..he only had 3/4s up until this morning and now he has 6s for some areas and for tomorrow he only had 3/4s and now he has 5s for some areas..
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SevereStudios‏@severestudios

MAP: Here is the new MODERATE RISK area (greatest threat for severe weather in red) http://twitpic.com/bzat97
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And the other updated SPC graphics:







On a side note, html is hard to do on a phone. So is copying and pasting.
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60. EvPv
What pressure to Atlantic Superstorm Jolle get down to?
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Thanks doc. A negative tilt, some more cape, and we would have had a terrible tornado outbreak..jmo.
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For what it's worth, were busting hugely on DC temps today. Expected low 50s socked in with mist and fog until early PM. Morning instead dawned clear and with +10 at 850 and +14 at 950 we're rocketing up, likely into the 60s by afternoon even with cold wet partially frozen soils.

Expecting thunderstorms with heavy rain and strong winds early wednesday evening.

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Quoting kwgirl:
I believe if you go to Hurricane history here on WU and click the year, you will get info you need.


Thank you! :-)

WunderGirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812


SPC AC 291620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (10:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AztecCe:
Quick Question:
Early Spring?
Late Winter?
(Especially for the Mid-Atlantic: Does NC have another change of seeing snow?)


In the DC area, February is normally the snowiest month and I think this is true down to NC.
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Quoting WunderGirl12:
Does anyone know how I can get the archived data on a specific hurricane? For example, the tracking maps of hurricane cammile?

WunderGirl12
I believe if you go to Hurricane history here on WU and click the year, you will get info you need.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StL already 68, I'm not quite that high yet, 63, 62 dew pt, 61 was low so far. Avg wind S at 10 w/ 30 gust so far. Clouds should help keep heating down, but sure we'll have an interesting afternoon. Glad I found out my sump pump had gone out before this arrived! New one installed last night. If get 2+ I'll need it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
52. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the latest torcon numbers from Dr Forbes?


New update:

Tue Jan 29
Severe thunderstorms, many in a cold front squall line but some in advance, in north-central
and east TX, south-central and east OK, extreme southeast KS, south, central, and northeast MO, south, central, and northeast IL, west-central and north IN, AR, northwest LA. TORCON - 6 northeast TX, northwest LA, central and east AR; 3 to 4 for the rest of the above area. Numerous damaging wind gusts.

Tuesday night
Severe thunderstorms in east-central and south IL, IN, west and central OH, KY, TN, north and west AL, MS, LA, extreme east TX, southwest, central, and east AR, southeast MO. TORCON - 6 north LA, central and east AR, west TN; 5 southeast MO, west and central KY, middle TN, central MS, north AL; 3 to 4 other areas above. Numerous damaging wind gusts.

Wed Jan 30
Severe thunderstorms in south and east OH, south PA, MD, DE, south NJ, DC, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL panhandle, AL, east half KY, east half TN, east-central and south AL, southeast LA. TORCON - 5 AL, east TN, east KY; 4 to 5 north GA; 3 to 4 rest of above area. Damaging non-thunderstorm gusts may extend across east PA, NJ, south NY.

Jeff Masters
Does anyone know how I can get the archived data on a specific hurricane? For example, the tracking maps of hurricane cammile?

WunderGirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


For today's event:

AL north night - 4
AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4
AR central, east - 4
AR west - 3
FL west panhandle night - 3
IL central, south - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY west - 3
KY central night - 3
LA north - 4
LA west-central, southwest - 3
LA night - 3 to 4
MO central, south - 3
MS northwest - 4
MS night - 4
OK central, east - 3
TN west, middle night - 4
TX central, east - 3
other areas - 1 or less

FYI

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8 Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Tor:Con info Link
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So far in East Texas it's a bit windy and cloudy. I'm bracing myself for the bad weather that's supposed to be here later.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ohhh... ok

go here
It's on the WU site


Thanks. I found the graphic now. I appreciate it. :-)

WunderGirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting Bluestorm5:


I think she meant the satellite loop of that cyclone.


ohhh... ok

go here
It's on the WU site
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting pcola57:


Check your blog.. :)


Thanks! :-)

WunderGirl12

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


where do I get them from?? I make them.


And how might you make them? I am very interested. :-)

WunderGirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812
Quoting Bluestorm5:


I think she meant the satellite loop of that cyclone.

wow XD
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

KSC037-291615-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130129T1615Z/
CRAWFORD KS-
1005 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

AT 1000 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GIRARD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

IN ADDITION...A 50 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED IN MCCUNE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARMA...BEULAH...CHICOPEE...CROWEBURG...ENGLEVALE. ..FARLINGTON...
FRANKLIN...FRONTENAC...GIRARD...LONE OAK...MULBERRY...PITTSBURG...
POLK...RINGO AND YALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3767 9477 3767 9466 3767 9462 3766 9462
3737 9462 3734 9492 3753 9493 3767 9481
3767 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 237DEG 47KT 3747 9479

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

KARDELL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


where do I get them from?? I make them.


I think she meant the satellite loop of that cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291546Z - 291745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN
TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OKC TO
SPS...CONFLUENCE FLOW WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND BENEATH A 65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATING
0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. FURTHER....THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE INITIAL ATTEMPTS
AT NEW STORMS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO MARGINAL CAPPING...SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED AND
TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWS ARE LIKELY.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1909
ATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 6...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
932 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059 -077-085-097-105-
109-119-131-141-145-167-185-209-217-225-292000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.A.0006.000000T0000Z-130129T2100Z/

TORNADO WATCH 6 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON CAMDEN HICKORY
MILLER MORGAN ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
GREENE JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
POLK STONE VERNON
WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...APPLETON CITY...AURORA...
BAXTER SPRINGS...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...CAMDENTON...CARTHAGE ...
CASSVILLE...COLE CAMP...COLUMBUS...EL DORADO SPRINGS...ELDON...
FORT SCOTT...GALENA...GREENFIELD...HERMITAGE...JOPLIN.. .
KIMBERLING CITY...LAKE OZARK...LAMAR...LEBANON...MARSHFIELD...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...
OSCEOLA...OZARK...PINEVILLE...PITTSBURG...REPUBLI C...
ROGERSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON...VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the latest torcon numbers from Dr Forbes?


Though it says its updated this morning, I think these are the same numbers from last night.

Tuesday, Jan. 29

Severe thunderstorms, possibly in a squall line, in north-central and east TX, east half OK, extreme southeast KS, south and central MO, central and south IL, AR, west and north LA, west KY, west TN, northwest MS.

AL north night - 4
AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4
AR central, east - 4
AR west - 3
FL west panhandle night - 3
IL central, south - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY west - 3
KY central night - 3
LA north - 4
LA west-central, southwest - 3
LA night - 3 to 4
MO central, south - 3
MS northwest - 4
MS night - 4
OK central, east - 3
TN west, middle night - 4
TX central, east - 3
other areas - 1 or less
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Where do you get your graphics? I can't seem to find any...

WunderGirl12


where do I get them from?? I make them.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291546Z - 291745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN
TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OKC TO
SPS...CONFLUENCE FLOW WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND BENEATH A 65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATING
0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. FURTHER....THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE INITIAL ATTEMPTS
AT NEW STORMS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO MARGINAL CAPPING...SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED AND
TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWS ARE LIKELY.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35439671 35749581 35909504 35919444 35809351 35539323
35219324 34329331 33569361 33069405 32869529 33159721
33719771 34279775 34679745 35019723 35439671
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the latest torcon numbers from Dr Forbes?


For today's event:

AL north night - 4
AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4
AR central, east - 4
AR west - 3
FL west panhandle night - 3
IL central, south - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY west - 3
KY central night - 3
LA north - 4
LA west-central, southwest - 3
LA night - 3 to 4
MO central, south - 3
MS northwest - 4
MS night - 4
OK central, east - 3
TN west, middle night - 4
TX central, east - 3
other areas - 1 or less
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Thanks Dr Masters. I will leave you all with this cool video, Blown-Up Star Seen Expanding - 58 Year Time-Lapse Video



Goodnight
Thank you Aussie..G,nite
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the latest torcon numbers from Dr Forbes?

According to TWC for today:
Tuesday, Jan. 29

Severe thunderstorms, possibly in a squall line, in north-central and east TX, east half OK, extreme southeast KS, south and central MO, central and south IL, AR, west and north LA, west KY, west TN, northwest MS.

AL north night - 4
AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4
AR central, east - 4
AR west - 3
FL west panhandle night - 3
IL central, south - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY west - 3
KY central night - 3
LA north - 4
LA west-central, southwest - 3
LA night - 3 to 4
MO central, south - 3
MS northwest - 4
MS night - 4
OK central, east - 3
TN west, middle night - 4
TX central, east - 3
other areas - 1 or less
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Does anyone has the latest torcon numbers from Dr Forbes?
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Quick Question:
Early Spring?
Late Winter?
(Especially for the Mid-Atlantic: Does NC have another change of seeing snow?)
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Quoting pcola57:
Her's the link for the video Aussie posted..

EDIT..Hmm Link won't work..
The Video does work for me though..

Linka href="

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Awesome..Thank you very much for posting...:)
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.
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397 stormchaser43: Dr. Spencer is a climatologist, is he not?

Not that I'm aware of. Unless he's picked up quite a bit of education...
...Dr.RoySpencer's specialty was satellite data interpretation; primarily famous for first noticing (then assigning an erroneous*interpretation to) some raw data that apparently contradicted GlobalWarming back in the late80s/early90s.

* Failed to take into account orbital degradation's effect on Dopplering, as pointed out by other letters in the next issue. Nonetheless, plaudits for being the first to notice, then getting a letter (critical of an earlier article) published in Science pointing to the apparent contradiction... so that others could correct for that previously unnoticed orbital/Doppler Effect.
On the other hand, ifn a fool like me could suspect Doppler error upon first reading his letter, hafta wonder about why he overlooked (or didn't mention) that possibility.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
From KLZK:

winds pretty unilateral except at the surface..
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Thanks Dr. Unless we see some "normal" cooling down along the Gulf over the next several weeks (water temp wise), we could see some pretty strong severe weather outbreaks come March and April ahead of schedule.
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I think today may eventually end up being quite similar to the Outbreak on December 25th, 2012.

A solid squall line formed in the morning, and a few discrete supercells formed out ahead of it, creating several warnings and eventually plenty of tornadoes.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this could actually be a more intense day than December 25th. Parameters are just so intense, and, according to satellite images, Arkansas and Louisiana is seeing sunshine below cirrus clouds. Not good.

Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1909
Strong storms going through OKC right now.

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Thank you Pcola and Chillin. Neither work for me because I am at work and Youtube is blocked. I will have to wait until I get home to see the video. Appreciate your help.
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From KLZK:

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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Thunderstorms heading towards Niagara Falls and Buffalo, NY, within the next hour. Watch out for drenching downpours.
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Quoting WunderGirl12:
Thanks Dr. Masters! :-)

WunderGirl12


Check your blog.. :)
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I would argue it looks more like mid March. The cold side isn't often that cold in April.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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