April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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stay safe out there folks.............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
208 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ILC149-MOC113-139-163-292030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130129T2030Z/
PIKE IL-LINCOLN MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-
208 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND PIKE
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 230 PM CST...

AT 206 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOWLING
GREEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISIANA...EOLIA...PIKE...CLARKSVILLE...ATLAS... ASHBURN...
PAYNESVILLE...ANNADA AND ROCKPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9103 3940 9088 3940 9093 3939 9093
3934 9084 3922 9076 3907 9130 3924 9138
3944 9140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 238DEG 58KT 3933 9113

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


My local area Lowe's and Home Depot both have collection boxes for CFL bulbs. The mercury in the bulbs is contained and easily collected and recycled. This is not something you can say about the mercury released from burning fossil fuels.


Thanks for pointing that out. I have 4 of them sitting here that stopped working and need to be properly recycled. I am guessing that that is a chain wide thing. Sure hope so. They don't seem to last very well in certain applications. I have some in a ceiling fan and they seem to fail at a higher rate there. Just a thought. Maybe they don't like the shaking that fan does.
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Quoting VR46L:


Its not so easy where I come from .. Its a 10 mile journey . The trash can is tempting but wrong .
More than 10 miles for us as well. That's why they and batteries go into bags that get taken in when we are already going for other reasons.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Wow 64 degrees here in the Detroit metro
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From the Fort Worth WFO:

* AT 156 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF COTTONDALE
TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POOLVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.


THAT is FAST.
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COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

DCZ001-MDZ007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>055-057- 300400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.A.0001.130130T1900Z-130131T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
255 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* TIDAL ANOMALY...POTENTIALLY 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

* TIMING...NEAR HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

* EXPECTED IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHORELINE INUNDATION.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
HAVRE DE GRACE...11:51 PM...
BOWLEY BAR...9:46...
FORT MCHENRY BALTIMORE...8:55 PM...
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY...7:27 PM...
CHESAPEAKE BEACH...6:08 PM...
SOLOMONS ISLAND...4:14 PM...
POINT LOOKOUT...3:27 PM...

NOW ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER...
WASHINGTON CHANNEL...10:12 PM...
ALEXANDRIA...10:30 PM...
INDIAN HEAD...9:58 PM...
AQUIA CREEK...8:44 PM...
GOOSE BAY...6:04 PM...
COLTON POINT...4:54 PM...
PINEY POINT...4:18 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
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207. VR46L
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


My local area Lowe's and Home Depot both have collection boxes for CFL bulbs. The mercury in the bulbs is contained and easily collected and recycled. This is not something you can say about the mercury released from burning fossil fuels.


Its not so easy where I come from .. Its a 10 mile journey . The trash can is tempting but wrong .
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For those who were still thinking we would see record cold finish to the late winter, I've got more bad news.





This is the 16 day average temperature anomaly from the 12z GEFS. ECMWF EPS is even warmer. CMC Ens is on similar terms.

Models have come into much better agreement and it now looks like the first half of February will be above average for most of the nation. Looks like the only areas which wont be above average for the first half of February will be the northern plains and possibly some of the mountain west states (though the graphic above doesn't necessarily reflect this). Central Great Plains will be the warmest. We will get a nice cold blast from Feb 1-3 and again around the 6th and 7th, but after that ridging kicks in. This seems to be the theme of the winter so far, periodic blasts of severe cold followed by mostly above to well above average temperatures giving us an overall above average temperature throughout winter so far.
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TORNADO WATCH 7 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CHARLESTON...CLAYTON...
FORT SMITH...HUGO...MCALESTER...OZARK...POTEAU...
STIGLER AND WILBURTON.

$$
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Quoting ncstorm:
SPC upped tomorrow

tomorrow is going to be one of those very dangerous kinda days..we all on the east coast need to be extra careful and heed your local warnings.
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Quoting VR46L:


Good Point !

But if folk are not disposing Broken CFL bulbs correctly it also will increase Mercury getting into the food chain.


My local area Lowe's and Home Depot both have collection boxes for CFL bulbs. The mercury in the bulbs is contained and easily collected and recycled. This is not something you can say about the mercury released from burning fossil fuels.
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SPC upped tomorrow

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Quoting MrMixon:
How often do you see an area of winter weather advisories just one or two counties over from a line of tornado watches...?



Brings to mind Sandy. Hurricane to the East, snow to the West.
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HAWAII WEATHER REPORT...
_________________________

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No change at 20:00z update by SPC.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
TN AND NWRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE OH VALLEY...

...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 01/29/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13254
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
ACROSS OUR GEORGIA AND BIG BEND ZONES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WINDS OVER THE MARINE
AREA WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

It will be interesting to watch what Phil sees on groundhog day.

it will likly be an overcast cold sat morning for em no shadow unless the sun breaks to allow it we shall see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Quoting Thrawst:


I would not be surprised. My friend has been praying to have a chance of seeing some type of severe weather, and I would not be surprised if he got something big tomorrow.
I have not been able to see what the setup will be tomorrow but I am guessing high temps in the upper 60's lower 70's should be able to fuel some moderate to strong instability (Decent humidity as well) but the question is will the storms form a line or if discrete cells form. Of course this is all assuming the shear is still there from today.
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167 TomTaylor: No, the YouTube video you linked is not of Garrett McNamara. That video is taken at Jaws (in Maui)

Linked YouTube cuz it loads faster, streams better than others. I shoulda questioned whether it was fake after noticing the lack of a full wetsuit. The water's cold cold cold off of Portugal this time of year.
But hey, if one is numb enough to try surfing on a wave of that size...

The video in the 100foot Surf's Up article appears to be genuine... though whether it can be said that he rode the wave is questionable. It appears that he bailed shortly after releasing the jetski towline.
His old world record was 78feet, and somebody else broke it earlier this month catching an 83footer. Must be a ***** to brave a ride like that, only to have that record broken within a couple-or-so weeks.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 PM
WEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF OVER 60 MPH. BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE SITUATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE OF STORMS.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN THE 3 AM TO 6 AM
TIME FRAME...THROUGH THE CENTER OF NORTH ALABAMA ALONG INTERSTATE 65
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM...AND INTO
NORTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO END SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BY NOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS OF OVER 60 MPH AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS ANTICIPATED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

$$
KTW
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It will be interesting to watch what Phil sees on groundhog day.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13254
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So any chance the Atlanta Metro gets upgraded tomorrow to moderate risk? Rest of the day should be interesting.


I would not be surprised. My friend has been praying to have a chance of seeing some type of severe weather, and I would not be surprised if he got something big tomorrow.
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Some moistya for Atlanta

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
185. VR46L
Quoting TomTaylor:
Posted this earlier, but here it goes again...

For those unaware, WeatherBell has allowed open access to their model data, no subscription needed. Link


Thanks !! That is great news
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by day seven looks like the makings of an early spring



It will be interesting to see what Phil sees on groundhog day.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13254
I was unimpressed by potential for heat in the DC area yesterday.
I was wrong.
We're now near 70 with a few more hours of warming to go. January monthly record of 79 is not in jeopardy.
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Posted this earlier, but here it goes again...

For those unaware, WeatherBell has allowed open access to their model data, no subscription needed. Link
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by day seven looks like the makings of an early spring

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Got my outdoor errands done, so bring the thunder!

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Quoting wxmod:


That should be looked at, but the savings in electric generation way more than offset the mercury used in the bulbs. That's what I hear.
China's contribution to world wide mercury is unquestionable.


I'm transitioning from CFL to LED bulbs anyway. I expect LEDs to be the
last light bulbs I buy.
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178. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


lol


Hope your project is going well!

Good luck with it
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173) Looks like clouds ahead of the front down there are not nearly as thick, not good.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


I already posted about that in the below comment.


what do you mean by interesting...? its not becoming anything
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NWRN AR NNEWD INTO CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...9...

VALID 291919Z - 292015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6...9...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.

DISCUSSION...SGF WSR-88D DATA DEPICT SHALLOW MESOVORTICES EVOLVING
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO NERN OK.
THESE FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LINE HAS APPROACHED
THE RDA...ALLOWING FOR BETTER SAMPLING OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. A
PAIR OF SUCH CIRCULATIONS IS EVIDENT IN NRN GREENE COUNTY MO...WITH
ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT TO THE NE AND SW. WITH AROUND 350
M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER SGF VWP DATA...THESE MESOVORTICES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD...AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY. THIS COULD
BE OF INCREASING CONCERN AS THE COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL
LINE OVERTAKES LEADING CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...POTENTIALLY YIELDING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36439506 35879564 35509569 35439432 35899335 37199236
38669125 39299134 39309194 38659247 37419364 36439506
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13254
So any chance the Atlanta Metro gets upgraded tomorrow to moderate risk? Rest of the day should be interesting.
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Little worried when I went home for lunch, it was lighter to the west, expected it to be darker. When I headed back, could occasionly get a fuzzy glimpse of the sun. Looks like it was just a brief break in the clouds, back to full grey now. StL looks like it won't break the record fortunately, actually has dropped 3-4 degrees since noon to 64/5.

Winds were pretty brisk as well, but not showing any higher gusts than earlier (30 mph). Pressure down another tenth or so to 29.59", dew pt still 62, so 94% RH. If getting to western 'burbs around 4, probably will be here around sunset, considering the angle it's at now.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
121 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 120 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AUXVASSE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEXICO...MARTINSBURG...LADDONIA...FARBER...VANDIVE R...BENTON CITY
AND RUSH HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 9159 3913 9146 3894 9193 3909 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 236DEG 31KT 3904 9186

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC143-363-367-291945-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0004.130129T1915Z-130129T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 115 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HUCKABAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GORDON AROUND 120 PM...
MINERAL WELLS AROUND 140 PM...
COOL AND MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK AROUND 145 PM...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 360 AND 396.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9806 3275 9774 3256 9801 3256 9806
3251 9807 3230 9836 3240 9848 3247 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 222DEG 60KT 3243 9836

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13254
Water vapor:



Click to animate and watch two massive arcs of moisture pour onto two very distal parts of North America.
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Quoting aspectre:
5 AussieStorm: ...Blown-Up Star Seen Expanding - 58 Year Time-Lapse Video

blog2337 ceocrocker: To me, [this ice bubble] looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss...


Hershey's must have a HUGE advertising budget to go around blowing up stars


lol
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Quoting aspectre:
100foot Surf's Up, courtesy of Jolle (I presume)

YouTube of The Ride
No, the youtube video you linked is not of Garrett McNamara. That video is taken at Jaws (in Maui) from a helicopter. The wave in the video is also probably more around 50-60ft, nowhere near 100ft. The wave picture below is from yesterday at Nazare, Portugal.




Here's a video trailer of the swell which just hit Portugal (from that massive bomb low we saw in the Atlantic a few days ago)





The height of the Garrett's wave (pictured above) is impossible to tell from this image because the bottom of the wave can not be easily seen. Looking at the overall size of the wave, it is likely above 70ft, but I would doubt it is at or over 100ft because of how hard it is to get that big of a wave to break along the shore. Last year when Garrett surfed there, however, he caught a wave which has been reasonably measured to be around 80-90ft (some people say 100, but really its right around 85-90). Here's a video of that wave

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5 AussieStorm: ...Blown-Up Star Seen Expanding - 58 Year Time-Lapse Video

blog2337 ceocrocker: To me, [this ice bubble] looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss...


Hershey's must have a HUGE advertising budget to go around blowing up stars
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.