April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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I am wondering just how BAD this is going to get when this front hits the very warm east coast states tomorrow
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Quoting percylives:
Well according to my back porch thermometer we set a new high temperature record around here today. It looks to be above 74 and the old record was 73. We'll have to see if any of the local stations set new records.

With a heat index close to 80 on January 29th I should be back in my hometown in south Louisiana not in the mountains of VA.


It's 70 with a heat index of 76 here in eastern WV. After highs in the teens all week last week, this is a bit of a system shock- I see lots of people in shorts and sandals today, as if winter were long gone. Then just to give us a whiplash, the high on Friday is predicted to be in the 20's with some snow. I think we switched places with LA for today, here in the Virginias :). We are already under a wind advisory and a flood watch was issued for the South Branch in Hampshire County. Wild, strange weather for sure.
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140 JNCali: ...China%u2019s Rise Creates Clouds of U.S. Pollution

well... Considering that from 1/4 to 1/3 of all China pollution comes from the FirstWorld's political decision to export jobs and pollution to developing nations in exchange for higher corporate profits and lower consumer prices, we're getting off easy in receiving so little pollution in return...
...excluding the fact that the excess of CO2, black carbon, sulphur dioxide, etc created by such a trade policy alters the climate on a worldwide scale.
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I don't want to jump the gun, but I think we've got a debris ball.

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Statement as of 3:34 PM EST on January 29, 2013

... Wind Advisory in effect from 5 am to 9 PM EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 5 am to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* Event... as a cold front approaches... south winds will increase
tonight and early Wednesday to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to near 40
mph. When showers and storms move into the area... near the
front... local wind gusts over 50 mph are possible. Then... after
the front passes... winds will shift to the west... and continue
strong and gusty as colder air pushes into the region.

* Timing... south winds will increase tonight. The front is expected
to pass during the day on Wednesday... with the gusty west winds
continuing through the rest of the afternoon.

* Impacts... loose objects could be blown around... vehicles will
be buffeted by strong cross winds... and a few shallow-rooted
trees could be uprooted.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can
make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles...
so use caution when driving.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
For those who were still thinking we would see record cold finish to the late winter, I've got more bad news.





This is the 16 day average temperature anomaly from the 12z GEFS. ECMWF EPS is even warmer. CMC Ens is on similar terms.

Models have come into much better agreement and it now looks like the first half of February will be above average for most of the nation. Looks like the only areas which wont be above average for the first half of February will be the northern plains and possibly some of the mountain west states (though the graphic above doesn't necessarily reflect this). Central Great Plains will be the warmest. We will get a nice cold blast from Feb 1-3 and again around the 6th and 7th, but after that ridging kicks in. This seems to be the theme of the winter so far, periodic blasts of severe cold followed by mostly above to well above average temperatures giving us an overall above average temperature throughout winter so far.
Following that same theme:

CPC

CPC
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Got a rotation to NE of Belfonte, OK.

EDIT: The updated radar image show that it's getting stronger.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Very intense low-level rotation on this cell. It is likely either a.) producing a tornado or b.) in the process of forming one.

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just breezy here by me..and warm
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And...........So it begins! stay safe folks! I am going to enjoy the normal 80 degrees and E breeze of 15 mph and play some tennis! Will update later!
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1893
see NO severe warnings by me, its going to pass us by...
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Beat me by seconds^^^^^^^
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 246 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF SHORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL
DAM...LEE CREEK...STRICKLER...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...BLACKBURN AND
WINSLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&
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Flipped back to WU StL radar, and a bit of lightning indicated SE of Jeff City, heading towards western edge of metro. Wasn't much lightning on it 20 min ago, so does appear to be intensifying some. Should be an interesting commute for the folks in StL. Anything your way yet Sherwood?
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Quoting Luisport:
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

MT @wxnick: GFS model fcsts winds just above ground to ramp up mightily next few hours - #severe wx threat to increase: http://twitter.com/WxNick/status/29635724417237401 6/photo/1
gee this is going to get dangerous tonight, bad thing is ..it might catch people sleeping..whew..folks pay attention to your local warnings til this is over
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If the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Isaac seemed unusually long to you, that's because it is. As far as I know (I've done some looking around), Isaac's TCR is the largest the National Hurricane Center has written. It's nearly double the size of Katrina's.

This [useless] record will probably unless last another week or two. Sandy's will be well over 100 pages.
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The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

MT @wxnick: GFS model fcsts winds just above ground to ramp up mightily next few hours - #severe wx threat to increase: http://twitter.com/WxNick/status/29635724417237401 6/photo/1
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sure looks like the stormy weather isnt coming by me here..
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SevereStudios‏@severestudios

RT @WXtremeChaser: One more damage shot frm morning storm. Hay bale slammed into shed http://twitter.com/WXtremeChaser/status/2963547799 18123008/photo/1
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Hasn't rained in 2 weeks now after 2 weeks of rain off and on. It's situations like this that are going to kill us in the summer where no rains fall for 2 weeks.
yeah i know how you feel..hasnt rained by me either in a long while, hopefully tomorrow it may, we'll see but it looks like this system will head a bit northeast..we'll see tomorrow.
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Looks like thunder may sound over me Wednesday night.... thats all I need, less sleep when im sick
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok good, maybe you just get some breezes and rain..north of you could get it bad as the front moves away tonight


Hasn't rained in 2 weeks now after 2 weeks of rain off and on. It's situations like this that are going to kill us in the summer where no rains fall for 2 weeks.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
going to be alot of power outages i bet............
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Right where the "G" is where the word Galveston is

ok good, maybe you just get some breezes and rain..north of you could get it bad as the front moves away tonight
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Quoting dabirds:
I think the worst of it will be south of us, but definitely keeping an eye on it Largo. Thanks for the posts!
ok good, stay safe up there..a very dangerous night and next day ahead of us whew.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Rita is THIS close to you?......................


Right where the "G" is where the word Galveston is

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
SevereStudios‏@severestudios

@WXtremeChaser got some good pictures of wind damage in western OK this morning: http://wxtremechaseteam.blogspot.pt/2013/01/washit a-county-storm-damage.html
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Rita is THIS close to you?......................
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I think the worst of it will be south of us, but definitely keeping an eye on it Largo. Thanks for the posts!
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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID SOUTH...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS CROSS THIS
AREA...CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Largo, I'm not expecting much in SE TX especially near the coast, the dreaded cap is in place
Hi rita, yeah it looks like most of the warnings are up in north Texas around Dallas etc..so far anyway.
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Quoting nofailsafe:
From the Fort Worth WFO:

* AT 156 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF COTTONDALE
TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POOLVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.


THAT is FAST.


Yep, watching that line creep East at 15-20 mph. Think I will try to leave my office in Fort Worth just ahead of it to get to the casa. Kiddos will appreciate Dad being home when it blows through with 10 minutes of terror.
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whats going to happen when all this cold air hits the east coast i wonder,most are in the 70's and around me the low 80's..going to be a very dangerous day tomorrow for sure.
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Largo, I'm not expecting much in SE TX especially near the coast, the dreaded cap is in place
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
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Well according to my back porch thermometer we set a new high temperature record around here today. It looks to be above 74 and the old record was 73. We'll have to see if any of the local stations set new records.

With a heat index close to 80 on January 29th I should be back in my hometown in south Louisiana not in the mountains of VA.
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Quoting dabirds:
That eastern box is a little large Largo, StL watch currently doesn't include any IL counties. Sure our turn is coming though. Pressure dropped another tenth and StL went back up to 66, I'm at 62, Spfld is 63, only have flood watches there so far.

Saw article in P-D that the Corps almost done at Thebes, found some more rock under sediments they want to get out. They're also going to start up north at Grand Tower this week. Expected to stay open, prior to this rain and melt, through end of Feb., so if 1-3" in drainage from this one, should be able to stay open now.
ok, this is going to be one dangerous night for alot of folks..stay safe up there ok
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Quoting VR46L:


Its not so easy where I come from .. Its a 10 mile journey . The trash can is tempting but wrong .


Just store any used CFL bulbs in safe place and take them with you on a planned trip to the collection area later. That is what I do and I do not make a special trip to a collection center. Saves gas and time this way since you can wait until you are already headed in that direction.
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Quoting aspectre:
Methane bubbles from decomposing plants trapped in 22centimetre(8inch)thick ice on AbrahamLake


Methane flare from hole punched in Alaskan lake.

Link
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL OCCUR. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OVER 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

TREE LIMBS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNED AND LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ENTIRE TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN
AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO...THE WINDS WILL CREATE
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
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That eastern box is a little large Largo, StL watch currently doesn't include any IL counties. Sure our turn is coming though. Pressure dropped another tenth and StL went back up to 66, I'm at 62, Spfld is 63, only have flood watches there so far. Edit: Oops, didn't show Pike in page I looked at. Then box is pretty close, no metro east yet, but Pike not that far away

Saw article in P-D that the Corps almost done at Thebes, found some more rock under sediments they want to get out. They're also going to start up north at Grand Tower this week. Expected to stay open, prior to this rain and melt, through end of Feb., so if 1-3" in drainage from this one, MS should be able to stay open now.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 292015Z - 292215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL
OK...IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVER ERN OK AND
WRN AR BUT FEW HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
REMAINS INTENSE...AND SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS POCKETS OF HEATING ARE
OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS ERN OK AND AR...AND RADAR DOES SHOW A
FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER ERN OK WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A DAMAGING
WIND OR TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
STORMS...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST ALONG THE LINE.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32439403 32459684 34439659 35379572 35359361 32439403
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Looks like a very Dangerous night ahead for alot of states tonight.......heed your LOCAL warnings folks.
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...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE TIME FRAME FOR THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS FROM 6
PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...THE POTENTIAL IS GREATEST FROM 9 PM TO 4 AM.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. THE CLASH OF THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL RESULT IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

$$

MY
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Nothing like that happening in Europe:




Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 29 Jan 2013 06:00 to Wed 30 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 28 Jan 2013 22:34
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A ridge / high pressure area expanding towards central Europe from the SW, while strong zonal flow establishing to its north in between the deep and dynamic upper-level trough over N Atlantic sea. Several disturbances are foreseen within this strong jet streak, with a new intense cyclone foring in the morning and later on passing just off UK to its NW. This low will affect NW UK with very strong winds, but models are not simulating any DMC so convective threat seem very low to zero. However, very strong wind field should result in rather widespread damaging non-convective winds over northern half of UK. An upper low over S Mediterranean quite rapidly moves further SSE and off our forecast map, where only some marginal convective activity is expected.
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stay safe out there folks.............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
208 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ILC149-MOC113-139-163-292030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130129T2030Z/
PIKE IL-LINCOLN MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-
208 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND PIKE
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 230 PM CST...

AT 206 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOWLING
GREEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISIANA...EOLIA...PIKE...CLARKSVILLE...ATLAS... ASHBURN...
PAYNESVILLE...ANNADA AND ROCKPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9103 3940 9088 3940 9093 3939 9093
3934 9084 3922 9076 3907 9130 3924 9138
3944 9140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 238DEG 58KT 3933 9113

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.