April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013

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The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.


Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.

Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.


Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VR46L:




Swap you two my weather ....you are more than welcome to it at the moment



I see most of that storm got past you. It looked nasty this morning. So, how bad was it today over there. What's your temp. I have 58.5 and happy
to get that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
315. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:


It's only a 60 mph gale. 80 mph in the far north. I was out working in it today. The rain ran down my weatherproof jacket and soaked my trousers to the skin, but temps up at a balmy 8C, so not too bad. Trousers now dried out for tomorrow, which is forecast to be the first dry day for a while.


I dont know 60 mph gale for the last 4 days is driving me crazy and my weather aint good for tomorrow or the next day either
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The tornado warned storm is looking very dangerous:

Is your radar a GRLevel3 v1 or v2?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 327 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WENTZVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION WEST OF FLINT HILL.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLD MONROE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 9080 3892 9065 3882 9089 3887 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 226DEG 39KT 3888 9087

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
WESTERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 340 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEECHVILLE...BATCHTOWN...MEPPEN...NUTWOOD...FIELDO N AND OTTERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9054 3909 9030 3893 9066 3900 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 232DEG 44KT 3898 9071

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL OK...N-CNTRL/NWRN
AR...S-CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...

VALID 292131Z - 292300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN
OK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS. VWP DATA AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE
0-1-KM SRH VALUES OF 325-400 M2/S2...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MESOVORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LSX RDA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING FROM
E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO WITHIN A REGION OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITING PERSISTENT DISCRETE AND SFC-BASED
CHARACTERISTICS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROPENSITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH EVOLUTION WAS EARLIER
DETECTED BY SRX WSR-88D DATA WITH A SUPERCELL THAT MOVED FROM
SEQUOYAH COUNTY OK INTO CRAWFORD/WASHINGTON COUNTIES AR. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM MAY CONTINUE TO CYCLE WITH A THREAT FOR
MESOCYCLONES/TORNADOES AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NWRN AR. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE TO ITS EAST.

TORNADO WATCH 6 WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE BY WFO TULSA TO ADDRESS THE NEAR-TERM SVR THREAT. THE
SVR THREAT WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 38349162 39459077 39419027 39138982 37979023 37019129
36199152 35409209 35349363 35399519 35779515 36189462
36449406 36819332 37469255 38349162
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Starting to tighten up near Old Monroe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
wow that sure looks like one nasty storm system over there..stay safe


It's only a 60 mph gale. 80 mph in the far north. I was out working in it today. The rain ran down my weatherproof jacket and soaked my trousers to the skin, but temps up at a balmy 8C, so not too bad. Trousers now dried out for tomorrow, which is forecast to be the first dry day for a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
This image may not seem like much, but for SE MI to be getting thunderstorms with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60F in January is rare. It should be snowing and freezing cold this time of year, not feeling like it is March outside. Some storms tonight into Wednesday morning could even be on the stronger side with guts up to 50mph.

yeah, usually S. PA is having some icy, snowy weather this time of year... not 60 degrees and rain
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3727
307. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Be careful VR.... I'll swap you later........OK?


LOL

Yeah its nice in March to June usually Temps between 55 and 75 perfect . but the rest of the time too much rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont know how to snip this..hope it comes out ok..............Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1418 60 SEDAN CHAUTAUQUA KS 3713 9618 VIA SPOTTER NETWORK.ORG (ICT)
1430 70 2 ENE COPAN WASHINGTON OK 3691 9589 (TSA)
1515 UNK MOUND VALLEY LABETTE KS 3721 9540 TREES DOWN IN MOUND VALLEY. WINDS ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH. (ICT)
1601 UNK 1 S GIRARD CRAWFORD KS 3750 9484 POWER POLE REPORTED LEANING OVER ROAD DUE TO HIGH WINDS. (SGF)
1702 UNK 3 S CEDAR SPRINGS CEDAR MO 3783 9389 BARN AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN OR DAMAGED. (SGF)
1711 UNK 10 NNW STOCKTON CEDAR MO 3783 9387 ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE AT A HOUSE. A POWER POLE SNAPPED. LARGE TREE DOWN. (SGF)
1718 65 OSCEOLA ST. CLAIR MO 3805 9370 (SGF)
1725 UNK 1 N QUINCY HICKORY MO 3802 9347 TWO TREES REPORTED DOWN AND BLOCKING ROUTE 83. POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN. SHED ALSO BLEW ACROSS THE ROAD. (SGF)
1757 UNK 7 W GRAVOIS MILLS MORGAN MO 3831 9295 MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WEBB RD AND HIGHWAY 135. (SGF)
1845 UNK 5 W JEFFERSON CITY COLE MO 3857 9228 POWER LINES DOWN IN THE CITY OF SAINT MARTINS (LSX)
1853 UNK JEFFERSON CITY COLE MO 3857 9219 AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTING 6-7 POWER POLES DOWN IN THE APACHE FLATS AREA OF WESTERN JEFFERSON CITY. (LSX)
1900 UNK HOLTS SUMMIT CALLAWAY MO 3864 9212 METAL SHED BLOWN OVER INTO A NEIGHBORS YARD. (LSX)
1905 UNK NEW BLOOMFIELD CALLAWAY MO 3872 9209 TREE REPORTED DOWN BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR. (LSX)
2030 UNK 10 NNE GAINESVILLE COOKE TX 3376 9708 ROOF/TRAILER DAMAGE (FWD)
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
The tornado warned storm is looking very dangerous:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
@EricFisherTWC
Main wind energy for this system hasn't even kicked in yet. Thrust of the jet-streak punches into AR/MO after 10pm. Event peaks overnight.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
This image may not seem like much, but for SE MI to be getting thunderstorms with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60F in January is rare. It should be snowing and freezing cold this time of year, not feeling like it is March outside. Some storms tonight into Wednesday morning could even be on the stronger side with guts up to 50mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Callahan texas reports.....9940 MARBLE SIZED HAIL ... WITH A FEW HAILSTONES JUST UNDER GOLFBALL SIZE. REPORTED AT 1057 AM. (SJT)
1707 150 12 S BAIRD CALLAHAN TX 3222 9940 MARBLE SIZED HAIL ... WITH A FEW HAILSTONES JUST UNDER GOLFBALL SIZE. REPORTED AT 1057 AM. (SJT)
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
301. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
wow that sure looks like one nasty storm system over there..stay safe


Its a barrage of them since friday I have seen Jollie,Kerin currently Lenhart and Mark is en route for tomorrow . Going stir crazy with boredom not getting out and about
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:




Swap you two my weather ....you are more than welcome to it at the moment

Be careful VR.... I'll swap you later........OK?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 12 hours.......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Quoting VR46L:




Swap you two my weather ....you are more than welcome to it at the moment

wow that sure looks like one nasty storm system over there..stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Good news from Arkansas so far...

@TWCBreaking

Emergency mgmt reports "no structual damage" w/the earlier #tornado near Natural Dam, AR - just lots of trees down. #arwx
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL OK...N-CNTRL/NWRN
AR...S-CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...

VALID 292131Z - 292300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN
OK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS. VWP DATA AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE
0-1-KM SRH VALUES OF 325-400 M2/S2...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MESOVORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LSX RDA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING FROM
E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO WITHIN A REGION OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITING PERSISTENT DISCRETE AND SFC-BASED
CHARACTERISTICS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROPENSITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH EVOLUTION WAS EARLIER
DETECTED BY SRX WSR-88D DATA WITH A SUPERCELL THAT MOVED FROM
SEQUOYAH COUNTY OK INTO CRAWFORD/WASHINGTON COUNTIES AR. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM MAY CONTINUE TO CYCLE WITH A THREAT FOR
MESOCYCLONES/TORNADOES AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NWRN AR. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE TO ITS EAST.

TORNADO WATCH 6 WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE BY WFO TULSA TO ADDRESS THE NEAR-TERM SVR THREAT. THE
SVR THREAT WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
295. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very warm here Largo... Thinking of closing up the house and turning on the A/C


Quoting LargoFl:
Hiya wpb!!..yeah ive had the A/C on all day now..very warm for sure..tomorrow the same too until that front gets here to cool things off a bit.


Swap you two my weather ....you are more than welcome to it at the moment

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Sirens just went off here in western St. Peters MO. Doppler indicated rotaion just west of me near Wentzville MO, but I think it's gonna slide by me just to the west and north.
Yeah, it's NW of Wentzville right now. I got friends in that city from my time in Missouri, so I'm praying this will miss Wentzville.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
yes this is just the very early stages for this system..NWS IS warning of the serious Danger for tonight..stay safe out there folks..pay strict attention to your local warnings
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Today's event is just in its very early stages. Storms are just now reaching the west edge of the moderate risk area where the most favorable conditions for tornadoes and damaging winds are present. Looks to be progressing as expected so far.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just got home from work....I didn't realize all of the severe weather in the midwest.....Be careful
yeah we are trying to warn people, its severe and its going to move to the east coast states tonight and tomorrow..going to lower OUR temps a bit probably by thursday maybe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Rotation northwest of St. Louis is tightening.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 327 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WENTZVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION WEST OF FLINT HILL.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLD MONROE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Sirens just went off here in western St. Peters MO. Doppler indicated rotaion just west of me near Wentzville MO, but I think it's gonna slide by me just to the west and north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wish these showers would get over to the west coast by me..could surely use some rain.............SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064 -141-144-147-300000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
355 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

.NOW...
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE TREASURE COAST
MOST OF THE DAY...SHOWERS ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OSCEOLA
COUNTY.SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
ALL IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Quoting LargoFl:
Hiya wpb!!..yeah ive had the A/C on all day now..very warm for sure..tomorrow the same too until that front gets here to cool things off a bit.
Just got home from work....I didn't realize all of the severe weather in the midwest.....Be careful
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very warm here Largo... Thinking of closing up the house and turning on the A/C
Hiya wpb!!..yeah ive had the A/C on all day now..very warm for sure..tomorrow the same too until that front gets here to cool things off a bit.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARC143-292130-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130129T2130Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
317 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 314 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO NEAR NATURAL DAM AT 305 PM...AND MAY
PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...STRICKLER
AND BLACKBURN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Quoting LargoFl:
just breezy here by me..and warm
Very warm here Largo... Thinking of closing up the house and turning on the A/C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They might add a new tornado warning when the current one expires. Rotation is still healthy.

EDIT: Maybe not. Rotation had weakened and they didn't issue a new tornado warning.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 7/8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TXC085-119-147-181-223-231-257-277-379-397-467-30 0100-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.A.0007.000000T0000Z-130130T0100Z/

TORNADO WATCH 7 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

COLLIN FANNIN GRAYSON
HUNT KAUFMAN ROCKWALL

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS

DELTA HOPKINS LAMAR
RAINS VAN ZANDT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...CANTON...COMMERCE...
COOPER...DENISON...EAST TAWAKONI...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...FORNEY...
GRAND SALINE...GREENVILLE...KAUFMAN...PARIS...PLANO...PO INT...
ROCKWALL...SHERMAN...SULPHUR SPRINGS...TERRELL...
VAN AND WILLS POINT.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
URGENT Tornado Watch 'til 7 pm NE portions of North Texas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Central and Western 'til 5 pm.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Looks like that lightning SW of StL letting up, still haven't seen any in IL yet on Lincoln's radar (or StL's).

Had a feeling we'd see tornadoes pop in AR today. Hope all of you down that way stay alert and safe!
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bad line of storms in Texas huh..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
160 SteveDa1: March, anyone? Not only is there an obvious extensive snow melt ahead of the low in the Midwest, the inter-mountain west is also experiencing widespread snow melt.

Which is a bloody dangerous situation. Snow packs act as reservoirs, often main reservoirs, that release water slowly through the Spring, Summer, and Fall.
Melt too early or too rapidly, and not only do we have to contend with the accompanying floods, we get hit by a more dire drought later in the year.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Northwest of St. Louis:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 311 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTHASVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WENTZVILLE...NEW MELLE...FORISTELL AND FLINT HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9087 3873 9077 3863 9111 3869 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 237DEG 45KT 3867 9109

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
That's where my friends live in. Hopefully they're safe...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
Northwest of St. Louis:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 311 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTHASVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WENTZVILLE...NEW MELLE...FORISTELL AND FLINT HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9087 3873 9077 3863 9111 3869 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 237DEG 45KT 3867 9109

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 305 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NATURAL DAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO PRODUCING PART OF THE STORM IS NOW
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF NATURAL DAM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MORROW...
CLYDE...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...STRICKLER...BLACKBURN AND WINSLOW.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
3:58 p.m. EST Tuesday: Strong rotation in a severe storm north of Short, OK (E of Tulsa). Possible tornado on ground. Local radar The storm will pass near Fayetteville, Ark., within the next hour
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Tornado is now confirmed.

@NWSTulsa Tornado confirmed north of Natural Dam, AR (Crawford Co)! Take cover now!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARC033-143-292130-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130129T2130Z/
CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
308 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 305 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NATURAL DAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO PRODUCING PART OF THE STORM IS NOW
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF NATURAL DAM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!


SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MORROW...
CLYDE...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...STRICKLER...BLACKBURN AND WINSLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9437 3570 9444 3592 9445 3580 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 224DEG 35KT 3573 9436

$$
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't want to jump the gun, but I think we've got a debris ball.



You didn't.

@TWCBreaking

Local emergency management reports #tornado on the ground just S of Natural Dam, AR along Hwy 59. Radar indicates debris signature. #arwx
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
Quoting LargoFl:
I am wondering just how BAD this is going to get when this front hits the very warm east coast states tomorrow


So am I, being in an eastern state myself. I think we might have a bumpy ride for a bit tomorrow afternoon.
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GRLevel3 is showing 100-120 knots on that Belmonte storm.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8006
First tornado of the day confirmed.

@TWCBreaking
Local emergency management reports #tornado on the ground just S of Natural Dam, AR along Hwy 59. Radar indicates debris signature. #arwx

@wxjerdman
Dual-pol radar indicates debris signature with #tornado warned cell NNW of Ft. Smith, AR. This means there has been #damage. Take cover!

AT 305 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NATURAL DAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO PRODUCING PART OF THE STORM IS NOW
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF NATURAL DAM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
I am wondering just how BAD this is going to get when this front hits the very warm east coast states tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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