April in January: spring-like severe weather and record warmth in the Midwest
The calendar says its January, but the atmosphere looks more like April over the Midwest U.S., where a spring-like surge of warm air is interacting with a strong low pressure system to create a dangerous severe weather situation. The warm air surging northwards has already broken high temperature records for the date in Chicago, where the mercury hit 61°F at 7 am CST; a tornado watch is posted for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. Golf-ball sized hail fell at three locations in Oklahoma already this morning, and a wind gust of 75 mph was reported in a thunderstorm near Omega, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but we will also see tornadoes, with the potential for a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. The surge of warm moving northwards ahead of the cold front spawning today's severe weather is bringing in warmth unprecedented for January in some locations. Monday was the hottest January day on record in Topeka, Kansas, which hit 77°F. That's 36°F above average. and 3° warmer than their previous highest January temperature. Columbia, Missouri tied its all-time warmest January temperature, 77°. Kansas City (74°F) and Wichita (74°F) both fell 1° short of tying their all-time January hottest temperature records. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere taken last night showed moisture levels in the top 5% for a January day over much of the Midwest, and several stations may set all-time rainiest January day records today. One candidate is Flint Michigan, where a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 7:30 am, dumping 0.75" of rain. With another round of thunderstorms expected tonight, Flint is poised to break its record for rainiest January day in its history--the 1.34" that fell on January 18, 1949.
Figure 1. A crazy weather day for the U.S.: our severe weather map from 10 am EST Tuesday, January 29. Severe thunderstorms were occurring in Kansas and Oklahoma, flood watches were posted for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and winter weather advisories, high wind advisories, and fire weather advisories were posted in other locations.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Illinois, Indiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.
Chicago's wild January weather ride continues
Chicago's craziest January in memory got even stranger today, when a surge of warm air pushed the temperature to 61°F at 7 am, breaking the previous high temperature record of 59°F for the date. Spring-like thunderstorms, accompanied by temperatures in the mid-60s are expected this afternoon--just a week after the city recorded a high temperature of 11°F and a low of -1°F (on January 22nd.) Chicago has been above 65°F in January just once in its history--on January 25, 1950, when the mercury hit 67°F. The average January high in the Windy City is 30°F, and today will be the 4th day the city has been 20 or more degrees warmer than that during January 2013. The roller coaster goes back downhill after the cold front moves through early on Wednesday, though--Chicago's high on Friday is expected to be near 15°F, with a morning low around 5°F. Chicago has also experienced record low snowfall this winter; the city got it's first 1-inch snowstorm of the season on Friday, when 1.1" fell at O'Hare Airport. This was the latest first 1-inch snow in city history, and ended a 335-day streak without a 1-inch snowstorm, the longest such streak since records began in 1872. Chicago has managed just 2.9" of snow during the winter of 2012 - 2013, which is 16" below average.
Chicago's roller coaster of temperatures doesn't compare, though, to what happened in Nowata, Oklahoma during the period February 10 - 17, 2011. A cold air mass combined with a fresh snow pack and calm winds allowed Nowata to hit a low of -31°F on February 10, 2011--the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. Gradual warming accelerated over the next week, and temperatures peaked at a record high of 79 degrees on February 17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this 110-degree temperature rise was the greatest change within seven days in Oklahoma history.
Video 1. In this video done by Peter Sinclair for the Yale Forum on Climate Change, I offer my thoughts on the roller coaster ride of temperatures in Michigan this winter, look back at the remarkable weather of 2012, and discuss what 2013 might bring. My main concern: drought.
Jeff Masters
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GAC015-115-143-233-301600-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0002.130130T1521Z-130130T1600Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1021 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERN HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
* UNTIL 1100 AM EST
* AT 1018 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 30 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CEDARTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAVE
SPRING...ARAGON...TAYLORSVILLE...EUHARLEE...KINGST ON...ROME AND
SHANNON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
921 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
ALC015-301600-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130130T1600Z/
CALHOUN AL-
921 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN
COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM CST...
AT 921 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIEDMONT.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1028 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH GEORGIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. RECENT RAINS AND THE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR TREES TO BE UPROOTED WITH GREATER EASE.
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 55°F. South wind to 23 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH. Chance of precipitation near 75%. Precipitation amounts less than one tenth of an inch possible.
Night: Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around 50°F. South wind 24 to 34 MPH, gusting to 57 MPH. Chance of precipitation near 100%. Precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
My attention is now turning to February 14th, this is when I am going on my ski trip in Wisconsin The CPC is making want to smash things. #*&$!
6-10 Feb 4th-8th
8-14 Feb 6th-12th.
I hope there isn't too much in the way of confidence in this outlook or I may have to wait to next year. It does seem to have the appearance that maybe another shot of arctic air may be hinting around the Canadian border at the end of the forecast?
Didn't she say she was going to on a 2nd Ski trip. Thought she said Wash. state.
funnel cloud reports
very heavy rain/ small hail
we'll have to see if one touches/touched down.
one of their dual pol products suggests there may be a tornado
maybe even part of a hail core as well.
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