Is it spring or is it winter? Wild roller coaster of temperatures for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013

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Is it spring or is it winter? The wild roller coaster ride of January 2013 weather continues this week, as Winter Storm Luna spreads snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the Midwest and Northeast today, to be replaced by a spring-like surge of warm air nearly unprecedented in warmth and moisture for January. Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80° three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today, and record-breaking high temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of Kansas and Missouri. Accompanying the exceptional January warmth will be near-record January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rides northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are about 0.3°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, current model runs are predicting that precipitable water values on Tuesday evening will be near record values for January over much of the Central U.S. The high moisture will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" over the Midwest. These rains are likely to cause flooding problems in areas where the rain falls on frozen soils with a significant snow pack. Flood watches are posted for much of Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, and Northwest Ohio, as a result. Here are the record January precipitable water values for some selected upper-air observation sites, along with the forecast precipitable water values for Tuesday evening from the latest run of the NAM model (thanks to Nick Wiltgen of TWC for compiling this):

Detroit, MI: Record: 1.20" at 00Z 1/11/75. Forecast: 1.2"
Nashville, TN: Record: 1.50" at 12Z 1/21/59. Forecast: 1.1"
Little Rock, AR: Record: 1.91" at 12Z 1/13/71. Forecast: 1.5"
Lincoln, IL: Record: 1.35" at 12Z 1/12/60. Forecast: 1.3"

Accompanying the heavy rain on Tuesday will be the threat of severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are likely in the Moderate Risk area.


Figure 1. Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Dangerous air pollution episode finally eases in Utah
As I blogged about last week, clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion combined to create a dangerous air pollution episode in Northeast Utah in Salt Lake City and surrounding regions. However, over the weekend, a surge of warmer air and rain pushed into Utah, breaking up the temperature inversion, and bringing an end to the week-long pollution episode. In Salt Lake City, fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) peaked at 59 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday, nearly double the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours.) But by Sunday morning, PM 2.5 levels fell below 35 micrograms per cubic meter for the first time in over a week, allowing the city to finally breathe a little easier. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution had been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 132 micrograms per cubic meter. On Sunday, air pollution levels in Provo also fell below the federal standard for the first time in over a week. With the forecast calling for snow through Tuesday and strong westerly winds building in, pollution levels should stay out of the red zone for at least the first part of this week. Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, estimates that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.


Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 23 - 28, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the first part of the period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. The wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots) while the pollution was in excess of the federal standard, but on the 27th, the wind rose to 10 mph, helping flush out the pollution. Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters

Icy Kiss? (ceocrocker)
To me, it looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss, but it also looks a little mammary in nature. I'll let each person make their own interpretation of Mother Nature's art!
Icy Kiss?
Smogy conditions (SlimJ77)
For the last 10 days we have had terrible smog in the valleys. I drove up above it the other day and took these pictures. Bad air quality for all of us. Today we get a freezing rain storm because of it, causing all sorts of mess.
Smogy conditions

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425. aspectre
3:48 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
397 stormchaser43: Dr. Spencer is a climatologist, is he not?

Not that I'm aware of. Unless he's picked up quite a bit of education, Dr.RoySpencer's specialty was satellite data interpretation; primarily famous for first noticing (then assigning an erroneous*interpretation to) some raw data that apparently contradicted GlobalWarming back in the late80s/early90s.

* Failed to take into account orbital degradation's effect on Dopplering, as pointed out by other letters in the next issue.
Still, plaudits for being the first to notice, then getting a letter (critical of an earlier article) published in Science pointing to the apparent contradiction... so that others could correct for that previously unnoticed DopplerEffect.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
424. Thrawst
3:39 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
I think today may eventually end up being quite similar to the Outbreak on December 25th, 2012.

A solid squall line formed in the morning, and a few discrete supercells formed out ahead of it, creating several warnings and eventually plenty of tornadoes.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this could actually be a more intense day than December 25th. Parameters are just so intense, and, according to satellite images, Arkansas and Louisiana is seeing sunshine below cirrus clouds. Not good.

Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1908
423. JTDailyUpdate
3:27 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
New Product Release By the SPC:
A tornado environment browser for the contiguous United States is now available. A tornado environment—convective mode sample (2003-2011) displays statistical information of supercell-related convective parameters accompanied by smoothed tornadic convective mode climatology images.
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
422. washingtonian115
3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting brywalker:


Excites for storms that kill people every year, and it is getting worse. HORRIBLE THOUGHTS!!!!!
Sign..why did I know someone was going to think this.And why the hell do they never catch other bloggers but always me.ALWAYS F'ING ME!.Well let me tell you something buster.If theirs one thing I'm not into hurricanes because they KILL or cause DESTRUCTION.When they are out their in the ocean and minding their own buisness they are beautiful to look at and to watch grow and die.Like people do.They grow up get mature AND THEN DIE.So STFU.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
421. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
419. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:11 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Just a reminder for those who live in near/in the moderate risk area...the Memphis NOAA weather radio service is down for today's event.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
418. washingtonian115
3:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Oh God ! Wash I dont know ... it could mean the activity remains or be totally spent .

Its starting to get to me right now . Electric flickering, rain ,50+ Knotts of wind gusts for the last 4 days . I hope its not a sign for the coming season .
Well a few days ago Doc had posted the list of the strongest storms in the northern Atlantic.Most of them occured in inactive hurricane seasons.I'm not to sure though if it has any correlation..maybe just a coincidence at most...But I do beleive we'll have a active hurricane season at best considering La nina wants to form.I'm looking forward to Karin!.Let her wrath come apon this blog for all those jokes.lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
417. GeoffreyWPB
3:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Nik Wallenda tightrope walk, watch live stream: Sarasota stunt video streaming live
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
416. VR46L
3:04 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wish we had storms like that with the cold air in place.Talk about blizzards everywhere.Luckily for you guys the the gulf stream protects you from such.This some how makes me alot more excited about this hurricane season than I have been in a few months.


Oh God ! Wash I dont know ... it could mean the activity remains or be totally spent .

Its starting to get to me right now . Electric flickering, rain ,50+ Knotts of wind gusts for the last 4 days . I hope its not a sign for the coming season .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
415. BleachwaterFox
3:03 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Doesn't look like fun down in Coffeyville, KS

Member Since: May 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
414. washingtonian115
2:57 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Will it ever end Sigh!!!!!



I wish we had storms like that with the cold air in place.Talk about blizzards everywhere.Luckily for you guys the the gulf stream protects you from such.This some how makes me alot more excited about this hurricane season than I have been in a few months.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
413. GeoffreyWPB
2:56 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
For West Palm Beach...85 tomorrow!...Another winter without a winter for south Florida...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
412. VR46L
2:52 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Will it ever end Sigh!!!!!



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
411. pcola57
2:51 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
My local outlook..

Regional Forecast for Coastal Escambia
Today
cloudy Cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Inland...southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Along the coast...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
nt_cloudy Cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening...then numerous showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. Inland...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Along the coast... southeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 61 | 63 72 | 67 67 | 63 67 | 65
Wind 7 mph SE 13 mph SE 13 mph SE 14 mph SSE
Humidity 96% 81% 86% 97%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 10% 60%
Cloud Cover 100% 93% 100% 100%
Conditions Overcast Overcast Rain Showers Thunderstorm
Sunrise & Sunset
6:41 AM
5:23 PM
Source: National Digital Forecast Database View Detailed Hourly Forecast
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6881
410. AussieStorm
2:47 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Goodnight all, Stay safe, if your in any risk area, please have your NOAA WX radio or stay tuned to your local radio station. It just might save your life.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
409. Barefootontherocks
2:45 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
From NWS Norman...

... Record warmest low and high temperatures broken at Wichita
Falls...

The record warmest low temperature for January 28 at Wichita Falls
was 56 degrees... which was set back in 1968. Yesterday at Sheppard
Air Force base... the low temperature was 58 degrees... which had
broken the record for the warmest low temperature for that date.

The record warmest warmest high temperature for January 28 at
Wichita Falls was 80 degrees... which was set back in 1970.
Yesterday at Sheppard Air Force base... the high temperature was 81
degrees... which had broken the record for the warmest high
temperature for that date.

Temperature records for Wichita Falls date back to 1923.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
408. Neapolitan
2:43 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43:


Dr. Spencer is a climatologist, is he not?
An oft-discredited and debunked one, yes, and one with a long history of ties to the fossil fuel industry (and--it should be noted--a staunch believer in "Intelligent Design", as non-scientific and ignore-the-evidence a "theory" as has ever ventured down the pike). It's really no surprise that an article on Fox News--that paragon of journalistic excellence--would quote at length someone like Spencer while ignoring the hundreds and thousands of credible climate scientists who would be happy to go on record as refuting nearly everything Spencer says.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
407. LargoFl
2:43 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
406. LargoFl
2:41 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
405. washingtonian115
2:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
climate change is a done deal
the sooner we stop arguing over it and accepting it as fact
better of we will be to do something about it
if we can do anything at all


whats that old sayin

we made our bed now lay in it
Your right.!.I just finished making my bed.Now I can finally lay down and finish reading that book I got earlier and sip on a cup of tea while I'm at it.I have to pick up the kids around 12:00 this afternoon to take them to the doctors appointment.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
404. AussieStorm
2:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Mozambique military on flood duty

MOZAMBIQUE'S military has been called in to help tackle severe flooding that has killed 48 people and is likely to spread to the country's central and northern regions, officials say.

The armed forces have begun helping with clean-up operations in the devastated southern town of Chokwe, which has borne the brunt of the flooding caused by heavy rains.

"We can confirm the army is helping support the affected people," said Benjamin Chabualo, spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence told AFP.

Soldiers have also been involved in rescue efforts and the navy has ferried people by boat to reach areas isolated by flooding.

According to UN figures around 250,000 people have been affected by the floods and 146,000 people are being housed in temporary shelters.

Water levels have begun to recede in the south of the country, but the situation remains critical, and the centre and north are expected to be hit by fresh rain.

In Chokwe many homes have been completely inundated, and the flood surge has left in its wake piles of rubbish, mud and the detritus of lives destroyed.

"In Chokwe families have begun cleaning their homes and (the national civil protection unit) will help the municipality to clean the city," civil protection spokeswoman Rita Almeida said.

Even as the floods ebb in some places, residents faced a tough slog to get clean food, water, shelter and avoid a legion of risks.

"The rains over southern Mozambique have ceased for the time being, and the floodwaters are slowly receding. However, many have lost everything in the floods," according to a UN situation report.

At least 48 people have died, some electrocuted by severed power lines trailing in the water, some crushed by collapsed buildings and some attacked by crocodiles

At temporary shelters aid agencies are feeding approximately 70,000 people.

While tens of thousands of people have made their way to government camps, many more have not.

"We know there are a great many people affected who did not turn up at these centres," said Rita Almeida, Mozambique's national disaster management institute.

Some may have gone to the houses of family and friends, others, in more remote regions, remained stranded.

Helicopters are airlifting food and medical supplies to isolated areas.

"We are lifting supplies to places where neither boats or vehicles can enter," the Director-General of Mozambique's Disaster Management Institute (INGC) said on national radio.

"We are doing all in our power to get food to people where they need it."

AAP
January 30, 2013 1:27AM
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
403. LargoFl
2:39 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
402. LargoFl
2:38 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:37 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
climate change is a done deal
the sooner we stop arguing over it and accepting it as fact
better of we will be to do something about it
if we can do anything at all


whats that old sayin

we made our bed now lay in it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
400. LargoFl
2:36 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
ok the watches are starting..this is only one of them.......WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 5/6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
726 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

OKC037-113-117-291800-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.A.0005.000000T0000Z-130129T1800Z/

TORNADO WATCH 5 REMAINS VALID UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BRISTOW...PAWHUSKA AND PAWNEE.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
399. washingtonian115
2:36 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
We have another chance of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning.Thankl God!.I haven't seen so many chances for snow in like two or three years.the first one(which will come through on friday) looks as though it won't have much moisture to work with.So far I've recorded three inches of snow at my house this year.Even though RNA has recorded a 6 of an inch.Hopefully the snow in Feburary won't be so moisture starved.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
398. LargoFl
2:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
my guess is alot of people are going to lose power tonight and thru the next couple of days with the winds etc..would be nice if the people going thru all this weather would tell us not yet affected..how bad it REALLY is..yes the warnings are out and it COULD be bad..but we dont really know huh..could be just some wind and rain..then again it can get worse than what they predict and warn about, so we wait..if later on its happening in your area and you still have power..let us know how it is ok...this is a strange set up..more like a spring and changing seasons kind of storm..unusual for January huh...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
395. ARiot
2:25 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43:
Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn

A preliminary draft of a report by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was leaked to the public this month, and climate skeptics say it contains fresh evidence of 20 years of overstated global warming.

The report -- which is not scheduled for publication until 2014 -- was leaked by someone involved in the IPCC’s review process, and is available for download online. Bloggers combing through the report discovered a chart comparing the four temperature models the group has published since 1990. Each has overstated the rise in temperature that Earth actually experienced.

“Temperatures have not risen nearly as much as almost all of the climate models predicted,” Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, told FoxNews.com.

Read more: Link



You know, it's amazing how an IPCC report can be cherry picked to death in the process of an agenda.

It's really more sad than amazing.

The body of work is showing more proof of anthropogenic forcing (rather than solar), showing how some decades will not show marked increase in global averages, as expected and predicted, and will probably, when done, admit they were too conservative in their predictions due to unforseen feedbacks that result in more climate forcing.

It's a dead horse. Beat it if you want, but that won't change the facts of AGW.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
394. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:22 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
393. ILwthrfan
2:15 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They may upgrade for the threat of damaging winds, but I wouldn't say it's particularly likely. 45% hatched seems best....for now.


I hope your right.

We will likely get a wind advisory added later. Winds were ridiculous coming to work this morning. Easy constant 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph out of the south.


Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
392. washingtonian115
2:13 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Well I'm setting up the Grammy awards now to see what blogger wins it for being the most over dramatic in the up coming server weather event and since I don't care to much for tornados I'm going to stay away for the next few days until Thursday when winter returns and not stifling spring(which was actually summer last year and summer was the inferno).The trees are already starting to bloom.It looks like thunderstorms will be in the forecast.I hope not as after last year I'am done with them for a while.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
391. pcola57
2:12 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Misty rain and 100%RH here..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6881
390. ScottLincoln
2:11 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43:
Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn

A preliminary draft of a report by the U.N.%u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was leaked to the public this month, and climate skeptics say it contains fresh evidence of 20 years of overstated global warming.

The report -- which is not scheduled for publication until 2014 -- was leaked by someone involved in the IPCC%u2019s review process, and is available for download online. Bloggers combing through the report discovered a chart comparing the four temperature models the group has published since 1990. Each has overstated the rise in temperature that Earth actually experienced.

%u201CTemperatures have not risen nearly as much as almost all of the climate models predicted,%u201D Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, told FoxNews.com.

Read more: Link

People didn't learn their lesson the last time they started using data/graphics/text from fishing expeditions?
Speaking of skeptics... this scientist is skeptical. Probably because the data seems to disagree with what the article reported. Maybe we should start being skeptical of what Dr. Spencer says...



Turns out, when analyzed correctly and the appropriate uncertainty ranges are taken into account, we've been following pretty close to even the early IPCC projections. It also important to take into account weather/climate variability, which is noise on top of trends. Studies that have done this indicate a slightly faster rate of climate warming because natural factors have added an small amount of apparent cooling.

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389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on January 29, 2013


pea soup fog outside my window at the moment
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
388. ILwthrfan
2:08 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



event right on cue builds from here till late wed


I don't remember the models showing such a well developed system this early in the stage. Most of them had the squall intensifying throughout today and into tonight.

If substantial clearly takes place over a large area out ahead of this squall line then models will have underplayed both the temperatures and instability in the warm sector of this storm. If the sun can get out for more than a couple hours we will see highs near 80 in a lot of places south of St. Louis. Temps right now already in mid 60's and are only forecast in to be in the low 70's at best. In the past I have only watch this type of situations grow worse as the day progresses.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:07 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

A wide variety of weather over Southern Ontario for the next few
days.


------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==

A low pressure system from Colorado and its associated warm and
Cold fronts will bring a wide variety of inclement weather to
Southern Ontario over the next few days. Both the warm and cold
fronts are quite sharp, so that temperatures will go up
And down like folks on a roller coaster as the fronts move through.
The very mild air mass from the Gulf of Mexico will boost
temperatures into the 10 to 13 degree range in most areas on
Wednesday, with a number of new record maximum temperatures expected
to be set. Temperatures may actually reach the mid teens in
localities such as the Niagara Peninsula, making it feel much more
like late April. Winter will return quickly with brisk winds though
by Thursday in the wake of the cold front.

1. Over Southwestern Ontario, the mild air travelling over the cold
snow has lead to the formation of locally dense fog with visibilities
near zero at times. The fog is likely to persist until periods of
rain begin this morning. The rain is expected to continue into
Wednesday. A thunderstorm is also possible this morning and again
tonight, with local rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 mm possible.

2. Over South Central Ontario, patchy freezing drizzle in areas
northwest to northeast of Toronto is expected this morning. Also,
locally dense fog with visibilities of 200 metres or less is
Expected as mild and moist air has arrived. Rain may begin briefly
As freezing rain later this morning as it moves in from Southwestern
Ontario, with rain along with a chance of a thunderstorm expected to
continue tonight into Wednesday.

3. From Georgian Bay to the eastern shores of Lake Ontario, patchy
freezing drizzle and scattered flurries will predominate as these
regions are just north of the warm front. However, freezing
Rain is expected to redevelop later this morning before changing
Over to rain in the afternoon as the warm front moves through. A
freezing rain warning is currently in effect.

4. For the Ottawa Valley and areas along the St Lawrence River to
Quebec, patchy freezing drizzle and scattered flurries are expected
this morning. Freezing rain is expected to move in by this afternoon
and will continue well into tonight.

5. Rain heavy at times, associated with the Colorado low, is slated
to move into the Great Lakes region tonight and Wednesday. Current
indications suggest that most of Southern Ontario can expect a total
general rainfall of 15 to 25 mm by Wednesday evening. Areas near
Northern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay however, may see up to 50 mm of
rain by late Wednesday.

6. Much colder air will return by Thursday, with flurries and snow
squalls expected to develop in regions to the southeast of lake
Huron and Georgian Bay as winter quickly returns to end the month of
January.

Environment Canada will continue to keep a close watch on this
Very interesting situation. Rainfall warnings may be issued for
Parts of Southern Ontario as the event draws nearer.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/OSPC


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
386. pcola57
2:04 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Temperature Diff. is well defined..



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6881
385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:02 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
384. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:55 PM GMT on January 29, 2013



event right on cue builds from here till late wed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
382. pcola57
1:51 PM GMT on January 29, 2013


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6881
381. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:50 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Temperatures already in the low 60's across much of Central Illinois. We are already at or within record highs for the day at 7am EST. Absolutely unreal.

Decatur, IL low temperature last night of 58 F.
Currently 61 F.



I would not at all be surprised if SPC issued a high risk today if the sun can get out and add to the instability from the Arkansas to Southern Illinois.

They have already expanded the tornado outlook from the previous advisory. This is rapidly becoming a dangerous situation.




They may upgrade for the threat of damaging winds, but I wouldn't say it's particularly likely. 45% hatched seems best....for now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
380. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:46 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43:


You just contradicted your statement. The SPC bases their outlooks upon probabilities. If the potential is there as you say, then how are they overdoing it?

Well, it depends on the degree of surface instability and whether we get a ton of discrete supercells or just a squall line. Right now a 10% hatched tornado probability would probably suffice, but my opinion may change if we get a lot of supercells.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
379. pcola57
1:45 PM GMT on January 29, 2013




Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6881
378. WunderGirl12
1:39 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Good Morning Everyone! A nice warm morning for me. :-) Well, off to school now.

WunderGirl12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812
377. pcola57
1:35 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Good Morning All..
Lots of warned areas today..




Red boxes-Tornado Watch
Blue boxes-High Wind Advisories
Orange boxes-Fire Weather Alert
Light Green boxes-Special Weather Statement
Green boxes-Flood Watch/Flood Statement
White boxes-Winter Weather Statement
Grey boxes-Fog Alert

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6881
376. Bluestorm5
1:35 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43:

I have never see a high threat from anything other than tornadoes. A moderate risk seems most likely. And as wannabe pointed out, the derecho threat is dire.


Agree. Moderate risk is as high as they'll go.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.