Is it spring or is it winter? Wild roller coaster of temperatures for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013

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Is it spring or is it winter? The wild roller coaster ride of January 2013 weather continues this week, as Winter Storm Luna spreads snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the Midwest and Northeast today, to be replaced by a spring-like surge of warm air nearly unprecedented in warmth and moisture for January. Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80° three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today, and record-breaking high temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of Kansas and Missouri. Accompanying the exceptional January warmth will be near-record January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rides northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are about 0.3°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, current model runs are predicting that precipitable water values on Tuesday evening will be near record values for January over much of the Central U.S. The high moisture will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" over the Midwest. These rains are likely to cause flooding problems in areas where the rain falls on frozen soils with a significant snow pack. Flood watches are posted for much of Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, and Northwest Ohio, as a result. Here are the record January precipitable water values for some selected upper-air observation sites, along with the forecast precipitable water values for Tuesday evening from the latest run of the NAM model (thanks to Nick Wiltgen of TWC for compiling this):

Detroit, MI: Record: 1.20" at 00Z 1/11/75. Forecast: 1.2"
Nashville, TN: Record: 1.50" at 12Z 1/21/59. Forecast: 1.1"
Little Rock, AR: Record: 1.91" at 12Z 1/13/71. Forecast: 1.5"
Lincoln, IL: Record: 1.35" at 12Z 1/12/60. Forecast: 1.3"

Accompanying the heavy rain on Tuesday will be the threat of severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are likely in the Moderate Risk area.


Figure 1. Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Dangerous air pollution episode finally eases in Utah
As I blogged about last week, clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion combined to create a dangerous air pollution episode in Northeast Utah in Salt Lake City and surrounding regions. However, over the weekend, a surge of warmer air and rain pushed into Utah, breaking up the temperature inversion, and bringing an end to the week-long pollution episode. In Salt Lake City, fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) peaked at 59 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday, nearly double the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours.) But by Sunday morning, PM 2.5 levels fell below 35 micrograms per cubic meter for the first time in over a week, allowing the city to finally breathe a little easier. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution had been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 132 micrograms per cubic meter. On Sunday, air pollution levels in Provo also fell below the federal standard for the first time in over a week. With the forecast calling for snow through Tuesday and strong westerly winds building in, pollution levels should stay out of the red zone for at least the first part of this week. Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, estimates that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.


Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 23 - 28, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the first part of the period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. The wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots) while the pollution was in excess of the federal standard, but on the 27th, the wind rose to 10 mph, helping flush out the pollution. Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters

Icy Kiss? (ceocrocker)
To me, it looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss, but it also looks a little mammary in nature. I'll let each person make their own interpretation of Mother Nature's art!
Icy Kiss?
Smogy conditions (SlimJ77)
For the last 10 days we have had terrible smog in the valleys. I drove up above it the other day and took these pictures. Bad air quality for all of us. Today we get a freezing rain storm because of it, causing all sorts of mess.
Smogy conditions

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Do you enjoy throwing up every 5 minutes Claude?
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White Rabbit
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
122. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat caught the east side of FELLENG.

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The TCR for Tony was released today. The peak was at 45kts.

Link
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Quoting nymore:
Post whatever you want Wundergirl, Don't let the old you kids get off my lawn people ruin it for you. After all some people are fun at a party and it wouldn't be the same without them and some never get invited because it wouldn't be the same with them, I suspect they are the ones who never get invited.
the post in question was not even in reference to wundergirl but the spamming of utubes and wundergirl was ask not to spam the blog with the same post over and over again noibody said not to post anything

just don't post it over and over and over until it becomes spam
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wow.........................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Coast Guard crews are still searching for a missing boater, but they have located his boat.

Patrick Mullins' 16-foot Stump Knocker was found early Monday afternoon near the mouth of Tampa Bay, close to Egmont Key, the Manatee County Sheriff's Office said. There was no sign of Mullins, though.
Jill Mullins returned to her Bradenton home last night and discovered her husband, Patrick, had not returned from a boating trip. They live on the 5600 block of 43rd Avenue East, along the Braden River.

Search crews using boats and helicopters began searching for the boat and Patrick, 52, early Monday.

Patrick Mullins, 52, is a media specialist at Palmetto High School. The school's principal, Willie Clark, issued the following statement on Monday:

"As the Media Specialist at Palmetto High School, Patrick Mullins is a vital and important member of our school community. All of our thoughts and prayers are with Patrick and his family during this difficult time and we hope mightily for his safe and speedy return."

Anyone with information is asked to contact the Manatee County Sheriff's Office at 941-747-3011 ext. 2260 or 2274.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Quoting ARiot:


My oldest lives and works there (Beijing).

Normally no mask. Lately, mask every day and very limited time outdoors.

It's pretty dangerous to breathe.
Not to mention what Wxmod said about the vegetation that people are eating and the animals there! One thing to measure waste in air.... but it sinks onto vegetation that is ingested. A now doublefold dillema that doesn't have a measure.
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Bohonk, how it it there in Texas..winds gusting huh.....
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


And, I am not disobeying the rules for Dr. Masters blog. My post is relevent to the discussion of tropical weather. YouTube videos are not. My only purpose is to conduct a poll for my research report. And how do i get people to participate? I let them know on the most read blog of them all, Dr. Masters. All it is an effecient way to get people to know about my post. (The only reason for this is so that I can earn an A+ on my assignment.)

WunderGirl12
Post whatever you want Wundergirl, Don't let the old you kids get off my lawn people ruin it for you. After all some people are fun at a party and it wouldn't be the same without them and some never get invited because it wouldn't be the same with them, I suspect they are the ones who never get invited.
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"Bizarre Foam Covers Beach and Streets in Beachside Australian Town."

Link

What the heck was the driver of that car thinking?

Direct link, but rated R for language.

Link
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...

.A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT DUE TO FROZEN SOIL CONDITIONS AND MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADS IS ALSO EXPECTED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Looks like dozens of high temperature records are falling across the center of the country today. For instance: Kansas City, MO, has so far reached 76. That is, AFAICT, the warmest January temperature ever measured there. The previous record for today was 65, and the average high is 39.

The forecast low for Thursday night is 11F.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13461
111. ARiot
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Wxmod.... beyond 'Hazardous' maybe 'Deadly'.... next 'Lethal'. Just a scale appropriation index for future ref.


My oldest lives and works there (Beijing).

Normally no mask. Lately, mask every day and very limited time outdoors.

It's pretty dangerous to breathe.
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Severe Tropical Storm Felleng looks more stronger than a STS.

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wow GFS at 48 hours............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WINDS
MAY GET CHANNELED TO THE GROUND IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE SHOWERS MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PASSING FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING ON
WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
JEDKINS...BE CAREFUL UP THERE...........DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
COAST THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG WITH IT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLY
COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Bielle.... Some of us here have a personality, AND.. Some of of us here will "stray" off of the weather topic when things are slow... I appreciate a little humor at the dry times... I'm sorry if I do stray off topic, but trying to make a smile on the faces when things are slow... Sorry for the admins, but I think I do a service sometimes....If you have something more interesting to say I will ZIP my mouth...
BTW whitewabit.... I think of Jefferson Airplane (Starship) everytime I see your posts
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Felleng is now a Severe Tropical Storm.

WTIO30 FMEE 281900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FELLENG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 57.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/29 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/01/29 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/01/30 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/01/30 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/01/31 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/01/31 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/01 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/02 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS ENHANCED WITH VERY COLD TOPS OF CLOUD. 1615Z SSMIS F18 PICTUR
E SHOWS A TOTALLY CLOSED EYE ON 85 GHZ. INTENSITY HAS LIKELY UNDER-ESTIMATED AT 1200Z. IN REGARD O
F RECENT EVOLUTION, CURRENT INTENSITY IS EVALUATED AT 50 KT. ADT SEEMS TOO HIGH AT 3.9. 1715Z ASCA
T PASS CONFIRMS CURRENT INTENSITY AND HAS ALLOWED TO CALIBRATE THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCL
E WHERE VERY PROBABLY THEY ARE STRONGEST.
FELLENG KEEPS ON MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MI
D LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS THEN PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTH-WESTW
ARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTI
NG NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
1200Z CIMSS DATA SHOW A SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT AT 8 KT THAT HAS NOT VARIED WITHIN THE LAST 24 H
OURS. IT HAS NOT INHIBITED THE INTENSIFICATION OF FELLENG. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THIS VERTICAL WI
ND-SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST BUT FROM TOMORROW, BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECO
ME VERY FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. SST ARE VERY GOOD AT 28/29 DEGREES, WIND-SHEAR IS WEAK UND
ER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BUILDING POLEWARD. INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN NOTABLY UPGRADED.
FROM THURSDAY SYSTEM EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE, A DIRECT THREAT SEEMS TO APPEAR REJECTED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
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Quoting wxmod:


From wikipedia

"Exposure to PM2.5 was also associated with an increased risk of mortality from lung cancer (range: 15% to 21% per a 10 microg/m3 increase) and total cardiovascular mortality (range: 12% to 14% per a 10 microg/m3 increase)."

If China's pm2.5 were now averaging about 400 microg/m3 that would raise lung cancer mortality at least 6 times above normal and at least 4.8 times normal for cardiovascular disease, by the statistics in wikipedia.

What was Fukishimas reads and Chernoble's???? Sorry about spelling. Just want a comparison to fallout in those vicinities.
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Quoting Bielle:


Why are they irritating, assuming they are only posted once? You don't have to click on them.
Thank you Bielle.... Some of us here have a personality, AND.. Some of of us here will "stray" off of the weather topic when things are slow... I appreciate a little humor at the dry times... I'm sorry if I do stray off topic, but trying to make a smile on the faces when things are slow... Sorry for the admins, but I think I do a service sometimes....If you have something more interesting to say I will ZIP my mouth...
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Arkansas warnings............DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT
SHOULD GAIN MOMENTUM TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH
PRECIPITATION BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

OTHER THAN THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN...SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A LINE UPON ENTERING THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL EXIT AS A LINE LATER AT
NIGHT. ALONG THE LINE...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL TURN SOMEWHAT WITH HEIGHT...SO AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ASSOCIATED WIND
DAMAGE... SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLARENDON...TO CAMDEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Sorry Bielle. I've been having some computer issues, and for some reason, it just keeps posting that message. Everytime I go to post something, that message is there. I finnally decided to go to another computer to post my comments. Sorry for any inconvinece it may have caused any of you. :-(

WunderGirl12



True...

WunderGirl12
Go for it girl. You want info. Lots of people tune in at all different times. And I'm sure that you will get exceptional info. from this site. If people are so arrogant to not want to see it.... scroll down. Don't give up and don't stand down for learning, we can all learn.
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gee warnings all over the place now..............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS CAUSING A LIMITED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT FROM A LINE NEAR BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM
SOUTHEASTWARD.

WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE LATER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WEST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO WARSAW.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
GA and SC heed your local warnings this mid week..............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WINDS
MAY GET CHANNELED TO THE GROUND IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE SHOWERS MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PASSING FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING ON
WEDNESDAY.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
95. JeffMasters (Admin)
Hottest January day on record in Topeka:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
128 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET FOR TODAY AND FOR JANUARY AT TOPEKA
KS...

AS OF 123 PM...THE TEMPERATURE AT BILLARD AIRPORT AT TOPEKA WAS 75 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE BOTH FOR THIS DAY AND FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 67 DEGREES...SET IN 1917. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE MONTH WAS 74 DEGREES...FIRST SET ON JANUARY 2...1939 AND THEN TIED ON JANUARY 8...2003.

ANOTHER REPORT WILL BE ISSUED IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE.

Jeff Masters
I wonder if this will reach down to me or head northwards...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-29 1400-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PI CKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSO N-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKM AN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDE N...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOK EVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE ...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MUR FREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHE LBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT.. .SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
133 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND THIS WARMTH
WILL HELP PROVIDE FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY
LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND REACH THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
91. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting WunderGirl12:


And, I am not disobeying the rules for Dr. Masters blog. My post is relevent to the discussion of tropical weather. YouTube videos are not. My only purpose is to conduct a poll for my research report. And how do i get people to participate? I let them know on the most read blog of them all, Dr. Masters. All it is an effecient way to get people to know about my post. (The only reason for this is so that I can earn an A on my assignment.)

WunderGirl12


I was not referencing your posts.. Hope you get that A
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for us gulf coast states, they are guessing at 60 mph straight line winds..its time to prepare now, if you have things in the yard etc that can blow around, today is probably the best time to take those things in..doesnt take much to break a window and let that 60 mph wind into your home..my guess is wind will be the big story in this system although miss and alabama already have some flooding problems way before this storm system comes..stay safe this week folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Quoting whitewabit:


Dr Masters blog is a weather blog .. and if you would read the rules to his blog they shouldn't be allowed ..


And, I am not disobeying the rules for Dr. Masters blog. My post is relevent to the discussion of tropical weather. YouTube videos are not. My only purpose is to conduct a poll for my research report. And how do i get people to participate? I let them know on the most read blog of them all, Dr. Masters. All it is an effecient way to get people to know about my post. (The only reason for this is so that I can earn an A+ on my assignment.)

WunderGirl12
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Agree with you!


From wikipedia

"Exposure to PM2.5 was also associated with an increased risk of mortality from lung cancer (range: 15% to 21% per a 10 microg/m3 increase) and total cardiovascular mortality (range: 12% to 14% per a 10 microg/m3 increase)."

If China's pm2.5 were now averaging about 400 microg/m3 that would raise lung cancer mortality at least 6 times above normal and at least 4.8 times normal for cardiovascular disease, by the statistics in wikipedia.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36929
Quoting whitewabit:


Dr Masters blog is a weather blog .. and if you would read the rules to his blog they shouldn't be allowed ..
"One pill makes you larger, And one pill makes you small"
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85. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Bielle:


Why are they irritating, assuming they are only posted once? You don't have to click on them.


Dr Masters blog is a weather blog .. and if you would read the rules to his blog they shouldn't be allowed ..
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Looks like StL has hit 70, won't be a record today, but if stays warm tomorrow they could come close as record is a few degrees lower. We're a little under 63, looks like some cloud cover they don't have is over us. 61 dew pt for 96 RH!

Hope those to our W get a little more than forecast, they need it more than we do.
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Quoting Bielle:


Wundergirl12: that's 4 times in this 100-comment section plus a number last night. Everyone who is going to play has the message. You don't need to post again. It is becoming irritating.


Sorry Bielle. I've been having some computer issues, and for some reason, it just keeps posting that message. Everytime I go to post something, that message is there. I finnally decided to go to another computer to post my comments. Sorry for any inconvinece it may have caused any of you. :-(

WunderGirl12

Quoting whitewabit:


Its not as irritating as people posting youtube videos ..


True...

WunderGirl12
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MDT risk and population Density:
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Quoting whitewabit:


Its not as irritating as people posting youtube videos ..


Why are they irritating, assuming they are only posted once? You don't have to click on them.
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Quoting help4u:
"Remember the center of earth is a million degrees hot"!ALGORE 2007


I'll take his word for it. I am not planning any trips there to verify it and my thermometer will not reach.
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79. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Bielle:


Wundergirl12: that's 4 times in this 100-comment section plus a number last night. Everyone who is going to play has the message. You don't need to post again. It is becoming irritating.


Its not as irritating as people posting youtube videos ..
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HIGHEST SFC-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL RANGE FROM 250 M^2/S^2
NEAR THE COAST TO 400 M^2/S^2 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. A SWEAT INDEX
AROUND 360 SUGGEST THAT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
THE 500-300 MB LAPSE RATES ARE NOW DOWN TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES DOWN
TO 250 J/KG SOUTHERN ZONES TO 450 J/KG NORTHERN ZONES...K INDICES
FROM 30 TO 35...AND LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -2 SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL FAR
OUT WAY THE INSTABILITY (CAPE)...AND BRN INDICES NOW BELOW 8 CONFIRM
THIS. SO THIS IS NOT THE BALANCE BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR THAT WE
WOULD BE LOOKING FOR IF WE WERE EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES


so we need more sun and heating for CAPE
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Quoting WunderGirl12:
Good Afternoon Everyone!

Just wanted to say thank you to all of the people who have commented on my blog post so far! :-) I still need more people to comment, so I have included the link below! :-) Thanks everyone!


Wundergirl12: that's 4 times in this 100-comment section plus a number last night. Everyone who is going to play has the message. You don't need to post again. It is becoming irritating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH UPPER 70S LIKELY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FORM OF A QLCS/SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY
INCREASING.


NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN TWO DAYS OF THE UPCOMING SEVERE THREAT...WE
CAN START LOOKING AT A FEW MORE DETAILS IN RELATION TO THE POSSIBLE
MODES OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...HODOGRAPHS...AND SEVERE PARAMETERS...THE VERY POWERFUL
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS STILL PRESENT. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 60 KNOTS ARE BEING ADVERTISED AS THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE 9 TO 12Z TIME FRAME
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE KNOW FROM PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND
STUDIES...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN ALL OUT SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE DERECHO TYPE SEVERE
EVENT.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT SHEAR
VALUES THAT ARE AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED.

BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMED SINCE 2005...0-1KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY OVER 40 KNOTS HAVE NOT PRODUCED
TORNADOES IN QLCS TYPE EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN OUR CWA. WITH
40-50 KNOTS OF 0-1KM BULK SHEAR BEING INDICATED SO FAR BY THE SUITE
OF GUIDANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...IT WOULD BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR ANY ROTATION TO REALLY GET GOING. HOWEVER...IN A
SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...THAT 40-50 KNOTS WOULD BE SCREAMING
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SO THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT WILL THE CWA BE UNDER BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
SQUALL LINE REACH WESTERN ALABAMA.

300MB ANALYSIS OF JET STRUCTURES HAVE REVEALED THAT THE MAIN JET
STREAK THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE VERY STEEP UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 150 KNOT 300MB JET STREAK IS STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BEING A PLAYER IS STILL IN THE CARDS HOWEVER...AS THE ECMWF IS
HINTING AT A MORE SUBTLE JET MAX OF 115 KNOTS AT 300MB NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTLINE. WHERE THAT JET DEVELOPS COULD PLACE US
IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...NO DOUBT ABOUT IT WE WILL HAVE A VERY
JUICY AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. PWATS ARE LOOKING TO INCREASE TO AROUND
1.50 TO 1.60 AFTER 06Z ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF PW CLIMATOLOGY...SO NO PROBLEM THERE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR THAT SEEMS TO BE REALLY COMING FORWARD NOW WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE PRESENT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 65 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THESE NUMBERS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BREAK A
CAPPING INVERSION JUST ALOFT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.
THE CAP
DOES NOT BECOME BROKEN UNTIL THE MAJOR FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE. IF WE WERE ABLE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WE COULD HAVE A
PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WATCHING THE
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS HOUR BY HOUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
...ESPECIALLY IF MODELS HAPPEN TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING INSTABILITIES.

SO...WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE PRIMARY
MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A SQUALL LINE/QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING
FROM 09 TO 12Z NORTHWEST AND WEST...AND ENDING FROM 21Z TO 23Z IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE SEVERE TIMING IS BASED OFF A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND THE CMC WITH THE GFS STILL BEING ABOUT 3-4 HOURS
QUICKER. EVEN THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH...WE STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE PRESENCE OF QLCS MESOVORTICES THAT MAY FORM
ALONG THE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH REAR INFLOW JETS. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BASED ON THE
INSTABILITIES THAT ARE ABLE TO BE REALIZED.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE
LEFT THE TORNADO MENTIONING IN THE HWO. GRADIENT WINDS ALONE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
TREES DOWN BY THEMSELVES BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE.
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TC Felling

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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