Is it spring or is it winter? Wild roller coaster of temperatures for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013

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Is it spring or is it winter? The wild roller coaster ride of January 2013 weather continues this week, as Winter Storm Luna spreads snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the Midwest and Northeast today, to be replaced by a spring-like surge of warm air nearly unprecedented in warmth and moisture for January. Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80° three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today, and record-breaking high temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of Kansas and Missouri. Accompanying the exceptional January warmth will be near-record January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rides northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are about 0.3°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, current model runs are predicting that precipitable water values on Tuesday evening will be near record values for January over much of the Central U.S. The high moisture will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" over the Midwest. These rains are likely to cause flooding problems in areas where the rain falls on frozen soils with a significant snow pack. Flood watches are posted for much of Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, and Northwest Ohio, as a result. Here are the record January precipitable water values for some selected upper-air observation sites, along with the forecast precipitable water values for Tuesday evening from the latest run of the NAM model (thanks to Nick Wiltgen of TWC for compiling this):

Detroit, MI: Record: 1.20" at 00Z 1/11/75. Forecast: 1.2"
Nashville, TN: Record: 1.50" at 12Z 1/21/59. Forecast: 1.1"
Little Rock, AR: Record: 1.91" at 12Z 1/13/71. Forecast: 1.5"
Lincoln, IL: Record: 1.35" at 12Z 1/12/60. Forecast: 1.3"

Accompanying the heavy rain on Tuesday will be the threat of severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are likely in the Moderate Risk area.


Figure 1. Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Dangerous air pollution episode finally eases in Utah
As I blogged about last week, clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion combined to create a dangerous air pollution episode in Northeast Utah in Salt Lake City and surrounding regions. However, over the weekend, a surge of warmer air and rain pushed into Utah, breaking up the temperature inversion, and bringing an end to the week-long pollution episode. In Salt Lake City, fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) peaked at 59 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday, nearly double the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours.) But by Sunday morning, PM 2.5 levels fell below 35 micrograms per cubic meter for the first time in over a week, allowing the city to finally breathe a little easier. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution had been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 132 micrograms per cubic meter. On Sunday, air pollution levels in Provo also fell below the federal standard for the first time in over a week. With the forecast calling for snow through Tuesday and strong westerly winds building in, pollution levels should stay out of the red zone for at least the first part of this week. Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, estimates that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.


Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 23 - 28, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the first part of the period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. The wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots) while the pollution was in excess of the federal standard, but on the 27th, the wind rose to 10 mph, helping flush out the pollution. Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters

Icy Kiss? (ceocrocker)
To me, it looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss, but it also looks a little mammary in nature. I'll let each person make their own interpretation of Mother Nature's art!
Icy Kiss?
Smogy conditions (SlimJ77)
For the last 10 days we have had terrible smog in the valleys. I drove up above it the other day and took these pictures. Bad air quality for all of us. Today we get a freezing rain storm because of it, causing all sorts of mess.
Smogy conditions

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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Didn't the wind field increase with Isaac as it neared the Louisiana coast?
Yeah, there was that too. I mentioned it in the report as well.
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Good evening everyone.

After bringing heavy rain to most of the Hawaiian Islands yesterday and earlier today, the cold front is weakening over the Maui County. However, there are still some clouds and moderate showers persisting mainly over Oahu and the Maui County. Drier weather should return by the middle of this week. The front should lessen some drought conditions across the Hawaiian Islands.

Here are the total amount of rainfall on some areas in Hawaii.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
While doing Isaac's report (it'll probably still be several days before the original iteration is released; best track will be added later), I was looking at recon data while it was traversing the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana, and it is amazing how steadily the central pressure fell as it approached the coast, but how little the winds increased. I attribute it to an extremely dry airmass over the western Caribbean, which water vapor images suggest existed throughout the cyclone's lifetime, on the backside of a decaying frontal trough over the western Atlantic; it could have also been enhanced along the subsident side of Isaac's cyclonic circulation; it is likely the hurricane entrained some of this dry air due to its enormous circulation envelope. Finally, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential maps show that Isaac missed the warmest waters of the Loop Current, which probably would have aided intensification in spite of the large size.

Didn't the wind field increase with Isaac as it neared the Louisiana coast?
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While doing Isaac's report (it'll probably still be several days before the original iteration is released; best track will be added later), I was looking at recon data while it was traversing the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana, and it is amazing how steadily the central pressure fell as it approached the coast, but how little the winds increased. I attribute it to an extremely dry airmass over the western Caribbean, which water vapor images suggest existed throughout the cyclone's lifetime, on the backside of a decaying frontal trough over the western Atlantic; it could have also been enhanced along the subsident side of Isaac's cyclonic circulation; it is likely the hurricane entrained some of this dry air due to its enormous circulation envelope. Finally, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential maps show that Isaac missed the warmest waters of the Loop Current, which probably would have aided intensification in spite of the large size.
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Partly Cloudy

56°F

13°C

Humidity35%
Wind Speedcalm
Barometer30.07 in (1017.6 mb)
Dewpoint29°F (-2°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 28 Jan 3:53 pm PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.


Temperature is 55.3 here as of 18:39PST The Airport isn't reporting again and my unit said it was 112.1 for todays high NOT
So either its shield fell down or it just had the Sun sneak a shot at it. I need to make a better shield for that. I have 3 sensors in one place between 2 windows and under a carport. None of the others were high. The unit in the front says 62. So it wasn't over that. That one has a memory and resets itself. Weather should be better tomorrow with that High getting closer.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 56.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 56.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.9S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A
DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 282321Z SSMI
37H MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A DEFINITIVE EYE WITH A FULLY DEVELOPED
EYEWALL. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 13S
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND THE
VENTING MECHANISM LEADING TO THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE OBSERVED.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DEVELOPING POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE, OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS
ESTABLISHING AN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT CONTINUES TO
BE HINDERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE STR. A MID-LATITUDE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE STR,
WHICH WILL ALTER THE SYSTEM TWO-FOLD. THE FIRST ALTERATION WILL BE
AN EXPANSION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND THE SECOND
WILL BE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AROUND THE EASTERN LOBE OF
THE STR AS THE WESTERN LOBE BREAKS DOWN. THE IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
DECREASING SST VALUES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEYOND TAU
72 WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

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Quoting Chucktown:
This next system is almost the exact same set up that we had just over a year ago.

Link

Yep. Mid-level wind shear is much higher though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
268. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Disturbance #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST January 29 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (995 hPa) located 22.2S 175.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery with animation.

Deep convection not visible over the system due to high shear. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 300 HPA. system lies along a surface trough. Upper divergence good to the far east of the system. Upper level jet just to the north of the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Global models have picked up the system and move it west northwestward and then southward with no intensification.
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Miami NWS Disco

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH INTO THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS REMAIN MEAGER. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS. AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN PREVAIL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

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January 2012 tornado outbreak-



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265. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah I know, the graphics I picked were arbitrary. Maue's probably would look a little messier for the same model run, valid time, and level of the atmosphere as I used for the UCAR graphic.

With that said, I still wonder why one wouldn't make a more aesthetically pleasing graphic.


Oh for sure, it could be prettier! But it's the every-three-hours RAP with a 20km horizontal resolution (i think)
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264. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting indianrivguy:
Pretty cool wind map.. I wish I could figure out how to save it.


copy it to e-mail and send it to yourself ..
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Pretty cool wind map.. I wish I could figure out how to save it.


I like that! Thanks for sharing it.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Pretty cool wind map.. I wish I could figure out how to save it.


About all you can do is set a bookmark for it.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
This next system is almost the exact same set up that we had just over a year ago.

Link
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Quoting beell:


Agree with you to a certain extent. It is a little ugly-especially with an ugly system.

However... the RAP model is at 700mb-valid tomorrow morning. Showing an extremely strong, deep layer trough swinging out into the plains. In addition to portrayal of a tight wind gradient, isohypses depicting a very strong gradient in the heights are also shown.

The other chart was valid earlier today and shows surface pressures across the US before the trough even has its act together and a much weaker gradient in 900mb winds and heights surface pressures over much of the US at the valid time.

Almost an apples and oranges thing. Under a more benign forecast, (less robust height and wind gradient) the RAP chart may be a little more pleasing to the eye.

yeah I know, the graphics I picked were arbitrary. Maue's probably would look a little messier for the same model run, valid time, and level of the atmosphere as I used for the UCAR graphic.

With that said, I still wonder why one wouldn't make a more aesthetically pleasing graphic.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Pretty cool wind map.. I wish I could figure out how to save it.
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More Of Plaza Red Pictures....

Bonus picture
View of damaged clock through collapsed storm damaged roof.



Fixed Clock

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
sim radar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting nymore:
oh but it does snow at the equator.


Are we talking mountainous regions??
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sim radar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
sim radar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
sim radar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
sim radar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
sim radar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
250. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting whitewabit:


Didn't they have to test it out first ?? or are they doing testing now ??


I saw a test on 1/24.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
248. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
People of ECFL rejoice! Our NEXRAD is back:) More rain coming for me too.



Didn't they have to test it out first ?? or are they doing testing now ??
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http://www.wnyc.org/articles/wnyc-news/2013/jan/2 8/rebuild-or-retreat-jersey-shore-after-sandy/

WNYC news
Rebuild or Retreat from the Jersey Shore?
Monday, January 28, 2013

By Janet Babin

Three months after Sandy, some New Jersey shore communities remain uninhabitable, without utilities and other amenities. There's a rush to rebuild, but some geologists endorse what they call "strategic retreat" from the ocean front, especially on barrier islands.

...

Most geologists agree that dune engineering projects that add sand to beaches are an effective way to protect houses and other structures near the shoreline from hurricane damage.

But the strategy is expensive. Sand moves, so beach nourishment projects have to be repeated every few years. One estimate puts the dollar figure spent on all beach nourishment projects in the country at $1 billion.

"That's since we've been able to accumulate records," said Rob Young, director of the program for the Study of Developed Shorelines at Western Carolina University in North Carolina, who collected the cost data.



For the past few decades, about 65% of the funding for beach nourishment projects completed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has come from federal tax dollars.

According to the Corps research, Sandy removed about 10.5 million cubic yards of sand from New Jersey Beaches.

That sand will have to be put back if the state wants to protect itself from the next storm, and maintain its summer tourism business, estimated to pump about $37-billion dollars into the state's economy.

It might be a reasonable investment for New Jersey, but Professor Young said it's not such a good one for taxpayers outside the state.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting wxchaser97:

Too bad it doesn't snow at the equator... I would like to think it could be worse, but it really can't.
oh but it does snow at the equator.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
242. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FELLENG (07-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 29 2013
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Felleng (984 hPa) located at 13.5S 56.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.2S 55.0E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.2S 53.6E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.1S 52.1E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 21.2S 51.7E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
For the last 6 hours, a warm point has appeared surrounded summit cloudy still very cold. Curved band Dvorak analysis on >1.0 wrap gives a DT at 4.0-. Advance Dvorak technique is stable at 3.9. Current intensity is upgraded at 55 knots.

Felleng keeps on moving westward to west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the low to mid level subtropical high pressures. 1800z CIMSS data show that southeasterly constraint has decreased (5 knots).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 12 hours then progressively recurve southwestward and beyond 36 hours south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level high pressures existing northeast of the system.

On the forecast track, especially from Wednesday, environmental conditions become very favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature are very good at 28-29C, wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge and a very good upper level outflow building poleward.

From Thursday evening system is expected to take a southward to south southeastward track. Friday it should encounter environmental conditions slowly degrading. Sea surface temperatures more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar. Felleng is expected to pass near Tromelin island at about 100-150 km in the west northwest during Wednesday morning. On and after Wednesday, a substantial weather deterioration is expected on Mascareignes archipelago.
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Quoting Skyepony:
People of ECFL rejoice! Our NEXRAD is back:) More rain coming for me too.


Good to see KMLB back online. It seemed like an eternity.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Slamguitar:


Move to an island right by the equator?? :P

I'll take the rain! Any precip = happy Slam.

Too bad it doesn't snow at the equator... I would like to think it could be worse, but it really can't.
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Moisture return in advance of this trough is impressive, especially for January. Dewpoints in the upper 50s stretch all the way to St. Louis and then some.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
237. Skyepony (Mod)
People of ECFL rejoice! Our NEXRAD is back:) More rain coming for me too.

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236. wxmod
NE Pacific today. Satellite image.

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.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I'm under a flood watch for around 1.25" of rain plus the liquid that comes from snow melt. Highs should be near record territory (upper 50s) tomorrow and then right back in the teens on Thursday. I just want the weather to stop flip flopping like it is.


Move to an island right by the equator?? :P

I'll take the rain! Any precip = happy Slam.
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I'm under a flood watch for around 1.25" of rain plus the liquid that comes from snow melt. Highs should be near record territory (upper 50s) tomorrow and then right back in the teens on Thursday. I just want the weather to stop flip flopping like it is.
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Quoting Doc M:
"Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80 three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today..."
...
OKC high temp today was "only" 74 - new record high for this date by 2 degrees.

Does feel like Spring. SEly surface breeze and clearing skies late this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s. Reasonable severe setup.

Statewide high temps

image credit: Oklahoma mesonet (Link added)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18360
231. wxmod
Kansas
MODIS satellite photo today

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


That is from ex TC Oswald right?


Yes that is the one that causing all the flooding on the East Coast.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
Quoting LargoFl:
australia flooding, alot of pics on the web.......
Quoting LargoFl:
australia flooding, alot of pics on the web.......


I knew Australia was the land down under, but I didn't think they were serious...

Also seems like they are land of weather extremes.
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228. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't get why people/organizations (UCAR in first image) who posses the skills to graph and plot model data choose to make their graphics so damn ugly. The first map below literally looks like someone vomited on top of the continental united states. The colors are hideous and one can hardly make out the underlying borders from the background map when winds are gridded in above.




Here's a much cleaner version of a wind map





Sorry for the random, pointless rant. This is just one of those things I can't wrap my head around. Also, I wasn't intending to prevent anyone from posting these images.


Agree with you to a certain extent. It is a little ugly-especially with an ugly system.

However... the RAP model is at 700mb-valid tomorrow morning. Showing an extremely strong, deep layer trough swinging out into the plains. In addition to portrayal of a tight wind gradient, isohypses depicting a very strong gradient in the heights are also shown.

The other chart was valid earlier today and shows surface pressures across the US before the trough even has its act together and a much weaker gradient in 900mb winds and heights surface pressures over much of the US at the valid time.

Almost an apples and oranges thing. Under a more benign forecast, (less robust height and wind gradient) the RAP chart may be a little more pleasing to the eye.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


That is from ex TC Oswald right?

i dont know aussie wasnt oswald on the west coast near broome?
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226. VR46L
Quoting PlazaRed:
Just a note of interest maybe to some!
Iberia at the moment is under a large low wind High Pressure but we are getting 7 meter,or about 24 foot waves crashing against the north and north west coast, when it should be almost flat calm. They are from the big low that was over the north Atlantic at the weekend.
The weather chap showed the satellite picture and the white line of the waves were clearly visible all the way along the north coast.
Very impressive.
Meanwhile we have plagues of flies all over the place and the weeds are about as high as they get in April 3 months too early from a winter here without a frost so far and about 3 foot of recorded rainfall.
Mud and compost season.


Its been Quite a storm , Had Gusts upto 51 Kts but expected to peak tonight around 65kts


Lots of Convection enroute too





Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6832
The US$ 290-billion global space industry affects the daily lives of the vast majority of people on the planet. Whether it is access to the weather forecast, satellite television and Internet services, or the nearly ubiquitous use of GPS on modern smartphones and electronics, space plays an increasingly important role in helping to solve the problems and address the issues humanity faces.

http://www.weforum.org/sessions/summary/future-sp ace
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.