Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Is it spring or is it winter? Wild roller coaster of temperatures for the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013 +32
Is it spring or is it winter? The wild roller coaster ride of January 2013 weather continues this week, as Winter Storm Luna spreads snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the Midwest and Northeast today, to be replaced by a spring-like surge of warm air nearly unprecedented in warmth and moisture for January. Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80° three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today, and record-breaking high temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of Kansas and Missouri. Accompanying the exceptional January warmth will be near-record January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rides northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are about 0.3°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, current model runs are predicting that precipitable water values on Tuesday evening will be near record values for January over much of the Central U.S. The high moisture will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" over the Midwest. These rains are likely to cause flooding problems in areas where the rain falls on frozen soils with a significant snow pack. Flood watches are posted for much of Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, and Northwest Ohio, as a result. Here are the record January precipitable water values for some selected upper-air observation sites, along with the forecast precipitable water values for Tuesday evening from the latest run of the NAM model (thanks to Nick Wiltgen of TWC for compiling this):

Detroit, MI: Record: 1.20" at 00Z 1/11/75. Forecast: 1.2"
Nashville, TN: Record: 1.50" at 12Z 1/21/59. Forecast: 1.1"
Little Rock, AR: Record: 1.91" at 12Z 1/13/71. Forecast: 1.5"
Lincoln, IL: Record: 1.35" at 12Z 1/12/60. Forecast: 1.3"

Accompanying the heavy rain on Tuesday will be the threat of severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are likely in the Moderate Risk area.


Figure 1. Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Dangerous air pollution episode finally eases in Utah
As I blogged about last week, clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion combined to create a dangerous air pollution episode in Northeast Utah in Salt Lake City and surrounding regions. However, over the weekend, a surge of warmer air and rain pushed into Utah, breaking up the temperature inversion, and bringing an end to the week-long pollution episode. In Salt Lake City, fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) peaked at 59 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday, nearly double the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours.) But by Sunday morning, PM 2.5 levels fell below 35 micrograms per cubic meter for the first time in over a week, allowing the city to finally breathe a little easier. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution had been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 132 micrograms per cubic meter. On Sunday, air pollution levels in Provo also fell below the federal standard for the first time in over a week. With the forecast calling for snow through Tuesday and strong westerly winds building in, pollution levels should stay out of the red zone for at least the first part of this week. Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, estimates that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.


Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 23 - 28, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the first part of the period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. The wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots) while the pollution was in excess of the federal standard, but on the 27th, the wind rose to 10 mph, helping flush out the pollution. Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters
Icy Kiss? (ceocrocker)
To me, it looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss, but it also looks a little mammary in nature. I'll let each person make their own interpretation of Mother Nature's art!
Icy Kiss?
Smogy conditions (SlimJ77)
For the last 10 days we have had terrible smog in the valleys. I drove up above it the other day and took these pictures. Bad air quality for all of us. Today we get a freezing rain storm because of it, causing all sorts of mess.
Smogy conditions
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151. Barefootontherocks 9:09 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a rundown of what to expect tomorrow...

- Storms initiating along a line right around sunset
- Possibility of discrete cells forming ahead of the line
- Main threat: extremely damaging winds, given linear storm mode
- Storms within the line have the potential to produce brief spin-up tornadoes, while the discrete cells ahead of the line also have this possibility.
- Marginally severe hail likely to accompany the strongest of storms

Dewpoints in advance of these storms are likely to reach the mid-60s. Those are sufficient enough values for severe weather at any time of the year, so it's extremely impressive to see them in January.

The main limiting factor (and savior for tornado-haters) is expected to be instability. Higher values would allow for more intense and discrete cells and tornadoes.

Hi TA13,
Maybe some ongoing overnight storms in the mix.
Add: That is, those that could initiate around late this eve and over night tonight.
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152. PalmBeachWeather 9:11 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting kwgirl:
PBW you have strange tastes. I vaguely remember eating spam when I lived in Morocco many moons ago. I wonder what the Lite is, less filler or less offal? Probably the offal since livers, kidneys etc can be fattening. After all, the price of organ meat, or any meat has gone up.
Hmmmm
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153. VR46L 9:11 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
kwgirl.....Thank you for responding.... Lots of cool people here that enjoy posting when the weather is slow... Thanks. Pedley, you, FtMyersgirl, VR, IRG I have many friends here. I may not always post about the weather but that is who I am...If I piss off the admins, So be it


I think you are a very cool lady .
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154. PalmBeachWeather 9:13 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
He had white horses
And ladies by the score
All dressed in satin
And waiting by the door
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155. OracleDeAtlantis 9:15 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting lilElla:


Just curious if your daily low temperature is swinging up & down as well?
I used the term "moderate," because the swings up and down haven't been overly dramatic, and pretty normal, actually. Which is why this is a little strange. Normally it's an extended period of warmth that causes this.

Quoting ARiot:


While no expert, I'm a bit of a tree geek. Tree geeks have been freaking out for a while now. From tree migration to get away from the heat to random early budding in populated areas, it's odd.

Tree migration is troubling. Early budding and blooms is just a little creepy, unles you're counting on tourist money for your tree festival or crop money from various trees that bud too early, get burnt in a frost and have to repush.
I've seen plenty of years where early flowering has occurred, although rarely in January, but that's not what's different this year. What's different is full flowering without the extended warmth.

I suspect there's a process going on that's not generally recognized, perhaps an accumulated memory mechanism of sorts for individual plants. For example, they're getting used to early warm periods and are reacting quicker as a result.
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156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:15 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
removed before i get in trouble
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157. PedleyCA 9:15 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Hmmmm


My thought exactly. I wonder if you went to the market and bought one of those single slices of ham in plastic if the Spam wouldn't be close to the same price. Would much rather eat that. OK, I am stopping....
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158. VR46L 9:16 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Stormy time over here....

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159. PalmBeachWeather 9:16 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That's it
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160. PedleyCA 9:17 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Lucky man

edit- corrected spelling
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161. PalmBeachWeather 9:18 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Honestly... I do like the Vienna Sausages in a can....But what a pain getting the first one out
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162. kwgirl 9:20 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Honestly... I do like the Vienna Sausages in a can....But what a pain getting the first one out
It's all the same stuff.
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163. PalmBeachWeather 9:20 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
removed before i get in trouble
Don't worry about it Keeper... It's a minor infraction of your life
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164. PalmBeachWeather 9:22 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting kwgirl:
It's all the same stuff.
Exactly
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165. LargoFl 9:22 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND THIS WARMTH
WILL HELP PROVIDE FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY
LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND REACH THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
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166. nymore 9:22 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
There are 11 different kinds of spam and even Mcdonalds and Burger King have Spam on their menus.

The residents of the state of Hawaii consume the most Spam per capita in the United States. On average, each person on Guam consumes 16 tins of Spam each year and consumption is similar in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Guam, Hawaii, and Saipan, the CNMI's principal island, have the only McDonald's restaurants that feature Spam on the menu. In Hawaii, Burger King began serving Spam in 2007 to compete with the local McDonald's chains. In Hawaii, Spam is so popular it is sometimes referred to as "The Hawaiian Steak". One popular Spam dish in Hawaii is Spam musubi, where cooked Spam is combined with rice and nori seaweed and classified as onigiri.

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167. PalmBeachWeather 9:23 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PedleyCA:
Lucky man

OMG KotG is pasting SPAM lol
What a fabulous song Ped...Thanks
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168. LargoFl 9:23 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
AND THE COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH (INDFFAIWX) FOR
MORE DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
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169. Neapolitan 9:24 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
The Great Plains un-winter weather may not yet be over with; the CPC's just-released 6-10 day outlook calls for an 80%-90% chance of temperatures exceeding climatology across a multi-state portion of the nation's mid-section, and a better-than-50% chance across roughly half of the Contiguous U.S.:

cpc
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170. SteveDa1 9:25 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
The impressive anomalous heat funneling its way northwards Tuesday and Wednesday will--for what seems like a repeat every other month these days--challenge and even undoubtedly break some monthly records for warmest day ever here in Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec.

For example, Ottawa, Ontario is forecast to reach 12 C (54 F) on Wednesday. The all-time (since 1938) January high temperature record is exactly 12.0 C set on January 19, 1996. It may even break the all-time February record of 12.4 C.
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171. PalmBeachWeather 9:26 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
What a fabulous song Ped...Thanks
OOOOOh a lucky man, he was
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172. LargoFl 9:26 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
this could get very dangerous.............
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173. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:27 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hi TA13,
Maybe some ongoing overnight storms in the mix.

Oh, no doubt. Some models, such as the HRW, are suggesting the line will actually intensify overnight as it progresses eastward. You can see this in the images below..

EDIT: Even though I see that's not what you meant. Lol.

00Z January 30 (6:00 p.m. CDT January 29):



06Z (12:00 a.m. CDT) January 30:



12Z (6:00 a.m. CDT) January 30:



This model may be downplaying the start of the squall line, just a note.
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174. LargoFl 9:28 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
hmmm 40-50-60 mph straight line winds..hitting powerlines heavy with ice...people might be in the dark for awhile when this hits.
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175. PedleyCA 9:29 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Hey Keep

Didn't notice your 35 degree temp till just now. Got a mini Heat Wave going there. No wonder your so active. You are starting to defrost.....lol
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176. LargoFl 9:30 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
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177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:32 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PedleyCA:
Hey Keep

Didn't notice your 35 degree temp till just now. Got a mini Heat Wave going there. No wonder your so active. You are starting to defrost.....lol
only for a couple of days then back to the freezer
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178. LargoFl 9:32 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
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179. LargoFl 9:34 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
wow wait til that cold front crashes into thes high temps..oh boy...
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180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:34 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Tonight Periods of drizzle or rain changing to periods of freezing drizzle and a few flurries after midnight. Fog patches. Low minus 1. Tuesday Periods of freezing drizzle and a few flurries changing to periods of rain in the morning. Risk of freezing rain late in the morning. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High plus 5. Tuesday night Periods of rain. Risk of a thunderstorm in the evening and after midnight. Temperature rising to 9 by morning. Wednesday Rain. Windy. High 13. Thursday A mix of sun and cloud. Windy. Low minus 2. High minus 2. Friday A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 9. High minus 4. Saturday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 10. High minus 5. Sunday Flurries. Low minus 6. High minus 4.
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181. Barefootontherocks 9:37 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
TA 13,
I mean, tonight, not Tues night. (Add: LOL. Just saw your add.) Who knows how surface-based it will be. Guess where it's gonna start?

Effective bulk shear, MUCAPE, CIN 2115 cstGMT. Static image.


Wouldn't hurt to look a little north and even west of here also. You can see the (add: surface) front on it's way in. (Replaced with static image - 2200 GMT)


We'll see what happens.
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182. Minnemike 9:41 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
the jet stream is going to snap i say!!
these extremes are taking their toll on seasoned Minnesotans, a people accustomed to it.. yet there is something different about this year..
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183. PedleyCA 9:42 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only for a couple of days then back to the freezer


I am sure you are enjoying the break. I know my sister is (NE Wis) You have been warmer than her lately. Now about the same for a few.
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184. Jedkins01 9:57 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Why are people discussing gross foods to such a high degree right now?
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185. PedleyCA 9:57 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
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186. TomTaylor 9:58 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Great Plains un-winter weather may not yet be over with...

cpc
Definitely not. Here's the8-14 Day outlook. February will most likely be above average for most the Great Plains, except maybe the northernmost states of North Dakota and Wisconsin.

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187. PedleyCA 10:01 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
spam

Someone said someone was spamming the blog and it morphed into a bit of whimsy. Sometimes we get bored....
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188. TomTaylor 10:03 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
I don't get why people/organizations (UCAR in first image) who posses the skills to graph and plot model data choose to make their graphics so damn ugly. The first map below literally looks like someone vomited on top of the continental united states. The colors are hideous and one can hardly make out the underlying borders from the background map when winds are gridded in above.




Here's a much cleaner version of a wind map





Sorry for the random, pointless rant. This is just one of those things I can't wrap my head around. Also, I wasn't intending to prevent anyone from posting these images.
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189. VR46L 10:05 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PedleyCA:
spam

Someone said someone was spamming the blog and it morphed into a bit of whimsy. Sometimes we get bored....


Love Monty Python

Thanks
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190. PalmBeachWeather 10:09 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting Jedkins01:
Why are people discussing gross foods to such a high degree right now?
Because
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191. PedleyCA 10:11 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Because


Just bored I guess.....
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192. trHUrrIXC5MMX 10:22 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    


72 in Kansas to 37 in Nebraska.... wow!
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193. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:23 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Trough is currently traversing the Intermountain West:

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194. trHUrrIXC5MMX 10:26 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
NWS forecast for my area

Wednesday
Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 55. South wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then showers likely. Low around 41. South wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Why isn't this snow????
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195. hydrus 10:36 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
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196. IceCoast 10:36 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Trough is currently traversing the Intermountain West:



Getting some very heavy snow here in Boulder, CO. Airport only few miles away is reporting rain 15 minutes ago but it's been snowing at my house for about 30 minutes now with 1/2 inch of accumulation. Crazy that it was 50 and sunny this morning.
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197. hydrus 10:40 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
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198. PedleyCA 10:44 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 49 min 49 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
54 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 40%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.05 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 7.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 6500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Warmer on this side of the river, 59.4 here. (Santa Ana River)
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199. weathermanwannabe 10:45 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Here is the latest position of the jet stream over the US for today.........No surprise that things will go boom when this combined with the frontal passage begins moving into the mid-west tomorrow into the warm air flowing up from the Gulf......Sort of a "mini" taste of what may come down the road when we get to our normal Spring severe weather and tornado outbreaks. Not the type of set-up that we usually see in late January (with temps this warm flowing out of the Gulf).

Link
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200. MrMixon 10:48 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
Quoting IceCoast:


Getting some very heavy snow here in Boulder, CO. Airport only few miles away is reporting rain 15 minutes ago but it's been snowing at my house for about 30 minutes now with 1/2 inch of accumulation. Crazy that it was 50 and sunny this morning.


Heavy snow here in Louisville (Colorado) too - giant flakes. But my wife reports that Nederland has yet to get so much as a single flurry. Odd.

Live webcam in Arvada, CO:



Radar for the area, showing the odd dry slot over Nederland (northwest of Denver):



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201. hydrus 10:49 PM GMT on January 28, 2013    
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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