Is it spring or is it winter? Wild roller coaster of temperatures for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013

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Is it spring or is it winter? The wild roller coaster ride of January 2013 weather continues this week, as Winter Storm Luna spreads snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the Midwest and Northeast today, to be replaced by a spring-like surge of warm air nearly unprecedented in warmth and moisture for January. Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80° three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today, and record-breaking high temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of Kansas and Missouri. Accompanying the exceptional January warmth will be near-record January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rides northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are about 0.3°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, current model runs are predicting that precipitable water values on Tuesday evening will be near record values for January over much of the Central U.S. The high moisture will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" over the Midwest. These rains are likely to cause flooding problems in areas where the rain falls on frozen soils with a significant snow pack. Flood watches are posted for much of Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, and Northwest Ohio, as a result. Here are the record January precipitable water values for some selected upper-air observation sites, along with the forecast precipitable water values for Tuesday evening from the latest run of the NAM model (thanks to Nick Wiltgen of TWC for compiling this):

Detroit, MI: Record: 1.20" at 00Z 1/11/75. Forecast: 1.2"
Nashville, TN: Record: 1.50" at 12Z 1/21/59. Forecast: 1.1"
Little Rock, AR: Record: 1.91" at 12Z 1/13/71. Forecast: 1.5"
Lincoln, IL: Record: 1.35" at 12Z 1/12/60. Forecast: 1.3"

Accompanying the heavy rain on Tuesday will be the threat of severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are likely in the Moderate Risk area.


Figure 1. Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Dangerous air pollution episode finally eases in Utah
As I blogged about last week, clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion combined to create a dangerous air pollution episode in Northeast Utah in Salt Lake City and surrounding regions. However, over the weekend, a surge of warmer air and rain pushed into Utah, breaking up the temperature inversion, and bringing an end to the week-long pollution episode. In Salt Lake City, fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) peaked at 59 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday, nearly double the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours.) But by Sunday morning, PM 2.5 levels fell below 35 micrograms per cubic meter for the first time in over a week, allowing the city to finally breathe a little easier. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution had been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 132 micrograms per cubic meter. On Sunday, air pollution levels in Provo also fell below the federal standard for the first time in over a week. With the forecast calling for snow through Tuesday and strong westerly winds building in, pollution levels should stay out of the red zone for at least the first part of this week. Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, estimates that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.


Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 23 - 28, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the first part of the period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. The wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots) while the pollution was in excess of the federal standard, but on the 27th, the wind rose to 10 mph, helping flush out the pollution. Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters

Icy Kiss? (ceocrocker)
To me, it looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss, but it also looks a little mammary in nature. I'll let each person make their own interpretation of Mother Nature's art!
Icy Kiss?
Smogy conditions (SlimJ77)
For the last 10 days we have had terrible smog in the valleys. I drove up above it the other day and took these pictures. Bad air quality for all of us. Today we get a freezing rain storm because of it, causing all sorts of mess.
Smogy conditions

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOLID AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EVENT (OUTBREAK) AND CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ON TIMING AS KEY FEATURES EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA. OPTED TO USE THE
OUTBREAK WORDING AS THIS EVENT WILL COVER A GOOD PART OF THE NEARBY
REGION (MULTIPLE CWA`S) WITH OUR CWA BEING A PART OF THE MAIN EVENT.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH/MOISTURE HAVE PRIMED A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH. LOOK FOR ADDED
WARMTH ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REALLY RESPONDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND ALLOW FOR
GOOD MIXING. THIS COMBO WILL LEAD TO WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE GOING WIND ADV AS IS.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AND EFFECTS OF MIXING...THE
ADV MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE NE CWA (N OF I-20 & E OF
I-55). NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TODAY AS A STRENGTHEN CAPPING INVERSION
WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE LATER THIS EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL HELP REMOVE THE CAP. ALL GUID SHOWS SUCH DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (PSEUDO-DRY LINE). THIS FEATURE
HAS AND CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED WELL BY ALL GUID AND IS A CLASSIC
FEATURE THAT BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SVR WX TO OUR REGION. CAN`T SAY I`VE
SEEN IT IN JANUARY THOUGH.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
INTENSE WIND SHEAR WITH PROGGED 0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 400-650 M2/S2. WE USUALLY STRUGGLE TO GET ANY
INSTABILITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...MUCH LESS HAVING SOME COMBINED WITH
HIGH SHEAR. WELL...MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 600-900 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AS LONG AS TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 71-73 AND DEWPTS ARE 66-67.
SUCH CAPE/SHEAR COMBO SUPPORTS 0-1KM EHI VALUES OF 2 TO 3 WHICH ARE
QUITE HIGH. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END EVENT WITH
SIG SVR WX POSSIBLE.


WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT TO
SUPPORT SVR STORMS...THE KEY ON WHAT THE AREA WILL SEE HAS TO DO
WITH STORM MODE (LINEAR OR DISCRETE CELLS). MODEL DATA IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SHOWING A MIXED MODE...FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE
TIME BEFORE A LINEAR MODE BECOMES DOMINATE. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY
LOOKS POSSIBLE BY 9 PM OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
EVOLVING LINE. THESE STORMS WILL STORMS WILL QUICKLY LIFT NNE AND
POSE A TORNADO AND DMG WIND RISK. HERE SEEMS TO BE MAIN AREA TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TORNADO.
AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT...THE LINE WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS IT EVOLVES EASTWARD. HI-RES DATA SHOWS A
LINE SEGMENT STRUCTURE OR QLCS TYPE STRUCTURES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. DUE TO THIS...TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
HOWEVER...DMG
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A FOCUS. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS IN
THE LOWER 5KFT...60-80 MPH TYPE WINDS MAY EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC WITH ANY STORM. DUE TO THIS...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DMG
WIND EVENT ALONG WITH THE TORNADO RISK MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH ALL OF
THIS...WILL UTILIZE THE GRAPHICS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO MACON. AS
FOR AS HEAVY RAIN...NOT TOO CONCERNED AS QUICK MOVEMENT AND
EVOLUTION LOOKS TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TOTALS AROUND .5 TO 1.0 INCH.
STILL...RAINS WILL BE EFFICIENT AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK 1 INCH.

AS FOR TIMING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A BROAD WINDOW ACROSS THE W/NW TO
CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF PRE-LINE ACTIVITY AND THEN THE ACTUAL LINE
ITSELF. LOOK FOR AREAS WEST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO NATCHEZ LINE TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 9PM AND 3AM. FROM 2-7AM...AREAS EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO WINONA
LINE WILL SEE THE SQUALL LINE QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Temperatures already in the low 60's across much of Central Illinois. We are already at or within record highs for the day at 7am EST. Absolutely unreal.

Decatur, IL low temperature last night of 58 F.
Currently 61 F.



I would not at all be surprised if SPC issued a high risk today if the sun can get out and add to the instability from the Arkansas to Southern Illinois.

They have already expanded the tornado outlook from the previous advisory. This is rapidly becoming a dangerous situation.





I really doubt we'll see high risk today because tornado threat isn't the main threat today. I don't see them increasing tornado threat to 30% which is a high risk percentage. However, the wind is a big threat in this storm and if they increase the threat to 60%, that will be a possible high risk, but I doubt they'll increase that as well.

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Temperatures already in the low 60's across much of Central Illinois. We are already at or within record highs for the day at 7am EST. Absolutely unreal.

Decatur, IL low temperature last night of 58 F.
Currently 61 F.



I would not at all be surprised if SPC issued a high risk today if the sun can get out and add to the instability from the Arkansas to Southern Illinois.

They have already expanded the tornado outlook from the previous advisory. This is rapidly becoming a dangerous situation.



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Good Morning Folks. All eyes turning to pending weather in the Mid-West today and further East tomorrow courtesy of the front and warm flow from the Gulf. Here is a portion of the am SPC discussion on the set-up in the Mid-West today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

A MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IS SUPPORTING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS HAS SUPPORTED THE ONSET OF STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS PRIOR TO THE START OF DAY 1 OVER WRN OK. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS ALSO EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE POLAR FRONT IN NRN OK TO SERN KS AND SWRN MO WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE 10-11Z. THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES AND SLIGHT RISK AREA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTHWEST TX...WRN AND NRN OK INTO ERN KS. THIS CHANGE IS DUE TO THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH SWD AND NEWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AND POLAR FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.


Starting to wonder if we might see a Derecho type line later today as daytime heating increases in the afternoon in the warm sector.
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NASA Image of the Day.



Snow blanketed most of Great Britain in late January 2013, stretching from London to the northern tip of Scotland. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image on January 26, 2013. Only some coastal areas and the southwestern part of the island were free of snow when MODIS took this picture.
Skies had largely cleared by the time MODIS acquired this image, but some clouds lingered in the west, casting shadows onto the snowy surface below.
On January 25, The Telegraph reported that the death toll from the storm was in the double digits, some of the deaths resulting from hazardous driving conditions. As of that date, more snowfall was expected, including some near-blizzard conditions in Scotland. Forecasters called for rain to follow the snow, with as much as 40 millimeters (1.6 inches) of rain in western Britain.
Between snowmelt and rain, flooding was expected over the weekend of January 26–27, The Guardian reported. As of January 25, more than 30 flood warnings were already in effect.

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Everybody in the Slight and Moderate risk areas pay attention to the weather this afternoon and evening. In addition to a high likelihood of extremely damaging winds all up and down the risk areas, there is a threat for tornadoes, some of which may be strong and long-lived, especially across the MDT. Though the Storm Prediction Center may be overdoing it a bit with a 15% hatched probability, the potential for tornadoes is definitely there.

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Everyone in the warned areas stay safe today!! supposed to be 75 degrees here tomorrow

Tomorrow:
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Time to get ready to head out the door. Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie, have a great Wednesday.

Doug, hope you're enjoying your week up there and the snow.

Everyone in the path of the severe weather, please take care and keep an eye on the sky.
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330 riblet2000: "Winter Storm Luna" You should be ashamed.
Do the Weather Channel marketers require you do hype this nonsense?

331 KoritheMan: Actually, he admitted the other day that he does it entirely at his discretion. I can't remember the exact post/blog, but dig a bit and you'll find it. I think it was back before we had Kahn.

What is so difficult about understanding that it's easier to type "Winter Storm Jolle..." than "that huge North Atlantic extratropical cyclone that was south of Iceland heading for the Faroes while bombing to 930millibars a couple of days ago..."?

And no, Jolle is not a name officially assigned by the NationalWeatherService or any other US agency... nor unofficially by TheWeatherChannel. It was bestowed by BerlinUniversity's weather department, then immediately adopted by everyone else cuz it made life simpler.

At worst, TWC can be accused of noticing BU's naming of severe weather systems (that will significantly affect Europe), then trying to force the "ifn it was good enough for my grandpappy and his grandpappy, it should be good enough for you" NWS bureaucrats to adopt a good idea.
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Good morning all! 2 inches of snow yesterday here in the central Colorado Rockies.
Winter storm warning for tonight thu Thursday eve. Currently 1.4 F here in Breckenridge.
Will be gearing up for the slopes in a little while. High today is 16F! I see we got severe potential for the east. Stay safe all. Good coffee Largo. Way to keep us informed about all bizarre stuff going on down under Aussie!
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362. SuzK
Link

Excellent scholarly journal article PDF regarding Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Recommended reading!
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Frequent-Flier Microbes Ride Hurricanes and Live in Clouds

From National Geographic.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1.5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND MELTED SNOWFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AS WELL AS
CREEK...STREAM...AND EVENTUALLY LONGER TERM RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
36 hours..the time to prepare is NOW folks..........
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... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 615 am CST
for southeastern Blaine... southwestern Kingfisher... extreme north
central Caddo and northwestern Canadian counties...

at 544 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and
damaging winds in excess of 65 mph. This storm was located near
Greenfield... moving northeast at 65 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Kingfisher... Watonga... Geary... Okarche... Hitchcock... Greenfield...
Bridgeport... Loyal and Omega.
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......................gee i hope this doesnt happen
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Severe Weather Safety Tips
Tornado Safety

Take cover in a sturdy building.

The best place in a house/building is on the lowest floor and in an interior room. Basements, storm shelters, hallways, closets and bathrooms are great locations to go! Any room that is AWAY from windows!

Protect your head from flying debris. Blankets, pillows, sports/bike helmets, mattresses, cooking pots are all good things to use to protect your head, other than your hands.

Mobile homes are not safe shelters. Find a neighbor or friend to stay with in a sturdier structure. For a last resort, take shelter in a ditch.

Never outrun a tornado in a vehicle. Get out of the car and into a sturdy building. If none is around, lay flat in a ditch.

Highway overpasses are not safe shelters. Winds speed up as they funnel underneath the overpass creating a danger to those underneath, as well as debris flying around.

Make sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio with fresh batteries handy. Many times, severe weather can come through during the night or times when we least expect it. NOAA Weather Radio will alert you when a warning has been issued for your county.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. It's gonna be a long day in the South today, keep an eye to the sky and keep your NOAA weather radio handy. Tornado threat appears larger than it did yesterday, though damaging winds remain the bigger threat.



The worst of the threat should be late this afternoon and this evening.
..yes a high wind warning is up..take in those loose things that can blow around..doesnt take much to break a window and let that blast of wind into your house
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Largo, looks like you may be gettng some rain.

We're 18 degrees warmer than our normal temp should be.
good morning, yes i hope we get some rain, supposed to be 83-84 here today,way above normal for us and its been dry,we can use this rain..supposedly no severe threat for us down here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Good morning. It's gonna be a long day in the South today, keep an eye to the sky and keep your NOAA weather radio handy. Tornado threat appears larger than it did yesterday, though damaging winds remain the bigger threat.



The worst of the threat should be late this afternoon and this evening.
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Hi aislinnpaps.
Thankfully the creek beside my place didn't break it's banks, got close though. I watched it closely till about 4am then I went to bed as it didn't look like it was going to get much higher. It wasn't as bad as it got last April.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...

...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY WITH A
HIGH RISK ON WEDNESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
ACROSS OUR GEORGIA AND BIG BEND ZONES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WINDS OVER THE MARINE
AREA WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Largo, looks like you may be gettng some rain.

We're 18 degrees warmer than our normal temp should be.
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whoa wens...GFS at 48 hours...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
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Jedkins, you be careful up there ok..............
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Neo,
Will ya pour me a cup of coffee? Black. TIA



TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 500 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
SILL OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
WRN OK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WRN
U.S. TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FURTHER
STRENGTHENS...AND AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BY A
MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHEN COUPLED
WITH 60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
300-350 M2/S2...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...MEAD

Quote added.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are some crazy temperature differences in the nation's midsection this morning. For instance, Kansas City is currently at 69, which is roughly 30 degrees warmer than the day's average high. Meanwhile, Omaha, Nebraska--just 190 miles to the north--is at 34.

Bottom line: expect some fireworks today...
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7-Day for the tampa bay area..wens night looks like rain..
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie.

Where's Largo? I've put eggs, canadian bacon, hash browns and biscuits over on the sideboard. I'm sure Largo will be in soon with the coffee.

Aussie, I hope that flooding isn't anywhere near you!

A very warm 68 degrees here this morning which surprised me as when I was doing parent pick up yesterday at the end of school the wind was quite chilly. Supposed to rain today with some chance of severe weather. There goes recess for a couple of days, if not the rest of the week. We haven't fully dried out yet from the week before last.
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Good Morning Folks!..the Blogs coffee is perked..enjoy!..have a great day everyone!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
There are some crazy temperature differences in the nation's midsection this morning. For instance, Kansas City is currently at 69, which is roughly 30 degrees warmer than the day's average high. Meanwhile, Omaha, Nebraska--just 190 miles to the north--is at 34.

Bottom line: expect some fireworks today...
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is it spring or is it winter?

in atlanta it's definitely spring, in january (just like last year). daffodils are blooming, bushes are coming into bud, irises are in full flower. and we even have a dogwood that hasn't gone dormant but is still putting out new leaf growth from last year.

thanks for links to weather bell and the e-wall
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Quoting TomTaylor:
For those unaware, WeatherBell has allowed open access to their model data, no subscription needed. Link

Check out all the cool looking graphics Maue has compiled over the years before the deal ends tomorrow!
Sweet ...
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336. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL FELLENG (07-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 29 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Felleng (968 hPa) located at 13.7S 55.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants, and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 105 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 135 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 145 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.6S 54.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.8S 53.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.7S 52.0E - 105 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 21.5S 51.8E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
The system keeps on intensifying and show now an eye pattern on visible imagery surrounded by cold clouds tops on infrared. Current assessment is on good agreement with latest available Dvorak estimate that range from 57 knots (PGTW) to 79 knots (SAB). Satcon (associated with a good AMSU pass at 2135z) is at 70 knots (10 min winds).

Felleng keeps on moving westward to west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the low to mid level subtropical high pressures. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 12 hours then progressively recurve southwestward and beyond 36 hours south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level high pressures existing northeast of the system.

On the forecast track, especially from Wednesday, environmental conditions become very favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature are very good at 28-29C, wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge and a very good upper level outflow building poleward.

From Thursday evening system is expected to take a southward to south southeastward track. Friday it should encounter environmental conditions slowly degrading. Sea surface temperature more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar. However inhabitants of that area and inhabitants of the Mascaregnes islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system. On and after Wednesday, a substantial weather deterioration is expected on Mascareignes archipelago.
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For those unaware, WeatherBell has allowed open access to their model data, no subscription needed. Link

Check out all the cool looking graphics Maue has compiled over the years before the deal ends tomorrow!
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The Latest from Australia on the Qld/NSW Flooding and the VIC/WA Bushfires.

NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell says the worst is over for Grafton residents in the state's north after the Clarence River peaked and started receding.



The river peaked today just below the height of the levee wall in a record flood that caused the evacuation of 2000 people.

Visiting Grafton after the peak, Mr O'Farrell told reporters that while there was still concern for communities downstream, "it does appear as though the worst of it is over''.

He said the State Government would work with the local council and other relevant authorities to ensure the flood mitigation measures continued to work as well as they did today.

"I'm delighted that whilst at 11 o'clock the river peaked at 8.08 metres, it's now at 7.95 metres, it is going down.''

The levee was breached along some parts of the wall but Clarence Valley Mayor Richie Williamson said council workers contained it with sandbags and were now concentrating on towns downstream, including Iluka, Yamba, Ulmarra and Maclean.

"It's looking more positive but the situation is still very dire. It's improving for Grafton and our attention is now on Ulmarra and the levee system around Maclean," Mr Williamson said.

Ten local government areas hit by the flooding have been declared natural disaster areas, allowing relief funds to flow to assist in recovery.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Mr O'Farrell today announced joint funding from the federal and NSW governments.

The declaration triggers a number of disaster assistance schemes to assist with the cost of disaster relief and recovery.

Natural disaster assistance would be available to affected residents, small business owners and primary producers in the Ballina, Bellingen, Byron, Tweed and Nambucca shires, the Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour City, Kyogle, Lismore City and Richmond Valley.

As the threat recedes in Grafton, crews are working across the state to restore power to thousands of properties after trees and debris became tangled in powerlines.

More than 19,000 homes are blacked out in the area stretching from Kempsey on the mid-north coast, right up to the Queensland border.

The NSW State Emergency Service has been inundated with calls for assistance with the heavy rain, strong winds and flash flooding bringing down power lines and trees and ripping roofs off homes.

Further areas could be declared in coming days as the clean-up effort continues.

Earlier, more than 1500 people were told to evacuate their homes in Lismore, Ulmarra, Cowper and Brushgrove in northern NSW with warnings of flooding as rivers peak throughout today.

A severe weather warning for Sydney was downgraded, after the city did not get the 100km/h winds that were forecast.

Thousands of travellers making their way home after the long weekend are facing delays and disruptions at Sydney Airport, as ex-tropical cyclone Oswald forces airlines to cancel flights.

The majority of the flights affected are those to and from Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Canberra and Melbourne.



A Qantas flight from Brisbane to Townsville this afternoon has been diverted to Rockhampton, though the airline refuses to offer any details on the incident.

Meanwhile, those affected by the disaster have been posting images and message on social networking websites showing the impact the crisis is having on communities on the east coast.

In Queensland, Ipswich residents are breathing a sigh of relief after a lower-than-expected flood peak caused far less damage than expected.

The clean-up has begun after the swollen Bremer River, which flows through the southeast Queensland city, burst its banks and reached a flood peak of almost 14 metres last night, inundating about 350 properties.

The council says the evacuation centres are still open and some roads are cut off because of floodwater or sludge.

Premier Campbell Newman has also urged Brisbane residents to conserve water, warning that some parts of the city could run dry.

"The water (coming downstream) is four times muddier than it was in 2011. The effect of that has been to cause the two treatment plans to shut down.

He said at normal levels of consumption, the city went through 450 megalitres per day. "Right now we can only produce and supply about half that."

"It is serious. We need people to conserve water."

More than 2000 homes and businesses have been flooded in the devastated town of Bundaberg.

Mr Newman called on all Queenslanders to roll up their sleeves and help those affected by the floods.

The Brisbane River has peaked and fallen short of causing serious damage. But it is thought that high tides in coming days could see the river rise again.

The Bureau of Meteorology said a smaller than predicted tidal surge will give the capital a small reprieve.

But Mayor Graham Quirk says he doesn't want locals to be complacent and any slight difference could have big impacts.

Hundreds of state schools in Queensland are closed on the first day of the new school year.

More than 30 private schools are also shut because of the floods and storms which have battered the state.

A number of schools in central Queensland, the Gold Coast and Brisbane, which expected to be closed today, have had power restored and are open.

Sugar cane crops have been ravaged by torrential rain, leading canegrowers to seek financial support from the government.



Industry body Canegrowers says it's too early to determine the full extent of the damage but it appears the Bundaberg, Maryborough and Childers areas were worst hit.

Floodwaters have also reached the rooftops of more than a hundred businesses in the town of Gympie. About 25 homes have been also been affected by flooding, but it's not yet known if water has entered living areas.

The Mary River peaked at the major flood level of 20.3 metres on Monday afternoon, with floodwaters higher and flowing faster than in the disaster which hit Gympie two years ago. The river is taking its time to recede and remains at a major flood level of 17.4 metres.

Water is still swamping businesses in the heart of town.

Along the Queensland coastline, shark nets are now adrift after being ripped from moorings along the Sunshine and Gold coasts.

Fisheries Queensland Shark Control Program manager Jeff Krause says nets have been torn from their moorings along hundreds of kilometres of coastline in southern Queensland.

"Nets have been dislodged from Rainbow Beach, Coolum, Marcoola and Maroochydore on the Sunshine Coast and Kurrawa, Mermaid, Miami, Currumbin, Kirra and Coolangatta beaches at the Gold Coast,'' he said in a statement.

The ongoing disaster has already claimed four lives, including a three-year-old boy who was hit by a falling tree in Brisbane's north on Monday, while thousands around the state have been forced to evacuate their homes.

The others were a motorcyclist whose body was pulled from a creek south of Brisbane, an 81-year-old man whose body was found near Bundaberg, and a 27-year-old man who tried to cross a flooded creek near Gympie.

Premier Campbell Newman toured the stricken city by air this morning and said he was shocked by what he saw.

''I've seen perhaps even more extraordinary sights than we saw two years ago in southeast Queensland,'' Mr Newman told reporters.

He says Bundaberg is at the centre of the state's flood crisis, with so many in need of help now and in the future.

''This is the number one priority for myself, for my government - to do everything we can for the people of this city.''

So far there are no reports that homes have been swept from their foundations, as feared.

But authorities say that won't be known for sure until the floodwaters have cleared.

Mr Newman visited evacuation centres and accompanied one senior SES worker on a boat tour of her home, which had water up to its ceiling.

He says the courage some people are showing in continuing to work for the community, even when their own homes are going under, is amazing.



The Premier promised all possible support for Bundaberg residents in the days, weeks and months ahead.

''They've shown a lot of guts, they're not going to give up, they're not going to be crushed by this,'' he said.

Most of the 7500 people displaced by the flood have gone to stay with family and friends.

Police Minister Jack Dempsey says there are 1500 residents in evacuation centres across the city.

Three other people are trapped inside a house by rising water from the Tweed River at Fingal Head, the SES said.

Overnight, 14 helicopters rescued more than a thousand people in the city's north.

''Black Hawks were operating to midnight, using night vision equipment,'' Mr Newman told Sky News earlier today.

''There may still be people in there and we have to get them out.''

The immediate focus was to rescue people stranded on islands created by floodwaters moving at more than 70km/h.

Mr Newman urged people to try to make contact with authorities or get up on their roofs so they could be seen.

''We are concerned about houses being lifted off their stumps and swept away,'' the premier said.

''People cannot stay in north Bundaberg.''

Authorities are preparing to evacuate scores of hospital patients from Bundaberg, where 2000 properties have flooded.

CareFlight Queensland has relocated two Learjets and four helicopters to Bundaberg to help the evacuation operation.

One Learjet flew a critical care patient from Bundaberg to Brisbane on Monday night and CareFlight says more critical medical evacuations are expected throughout today.

Queensland's Chief Health Officer, Jeannette Young, said the first Hercules flight out of Bundaberg arrived at Brisbane airport at 11am (AEST), carrying 41 patients.

The patients will be taken to the Royal Brisbane and Women's, Princess Alexandra and Prince Charles hospitals.

A second Hercules is expected to arrive at Bundaberg later in the day and will transport a further 41 patients.



The evacuation will be completed with a return flight of the first Hercules.

Dr Young said as well as the hospital patients, around 60 dialysis patients from the Bundaberg region were also being transferred to Brisbane, in different aircraft.

The Burnett River is raging amid a record flood, and is expected to climb to 10 metres over the next few days.

That's about two metres higher than the 2010/11 flood.

Mayor Mal Forman said there was still a lot of water headed towards Bundaberg, with flood levels expected to reach 9.5 metres this evening.

He said helicopters continued to work through the night, carrying 120 more residents to safety.

''We are very concerned that everyone has been evacuated from north Bundaberg. Until the water has receded it's very hard to know, but we pray they are all safe,'' he told ABC News 24.

The mayor said 60 elderly people at the city's RSL aged care facility were isolated by floodwaters, but they will be moved on Tuesday morning.

About 12,000 properties are without power.



The city has adequate supplies of drinking water but the city's sewage plants have been flooded, Mr Forman said.

About 167,000 homes are currently still without power in the southeast of Queensland after 50,000 properties were reconnected overnight.

Four hundred Energex crews will work through today to restore more homes and are hopeful improved weather conditions will assist their efforts.

The Brisbane City Council had warned that up to 3600 homes and 1250 businesses could experience some flooding, but that could be revised down.

Brisbane will also see a flood peak on the high tide on Wednesday. The flood peak will be nothing like what the city saw during the 2011 flood disaster.

However, floodwaters have breached levee banks in the city of Maryborough overnight, and it's believed some homes and businesses may have been inundated.

Fraser Coast Mayor Gerard O'Connell said the Mary River peaked at 10.65 metres at 4am (AEST) today and inspections were underway.

''The water is creeping into homes and businesses but I think most people were able to expect that,'' he told the ABC.

In the Darling Downs town of Warwick, southwest of Brisbane, there are hopes most homes and businesses have escaped flooding after the Condamine River peaked overnight half a metre lower than predicted.



Mayor Peter Blundell hopes the lower peak will have saved about 60 homes and businesses that were at risk of having water above the floorboards.

But up to 40 properties would still have had some form of inundation.

''How many had water into their living areas, we're not sure,'' he said.

Energex says 160,000 customers are still without power across the state, and 1100 power lines are down in the southeast.

Hundreds of state schools in Queensland are closed on the first day of the new school year.

More than 30 private schools are also shut because of the floods and storms which have battered the state.

A number of schools in central Queensland, the Gold Coast and Brisbane, which expected to be closed today, have had power restored and are open. The State Emergency Service had received 3400 calls for help in the 24 hours to 5am today.



Most jobs were in central Queensland, the north coast, Brisbane and the wider southeast region, for evacuations, sandbagging and roof damage.

A total of 46 council areas are now eligible for government assistance, including Brisbane City, the Gold Coast, Logan, Redland, Scenic Rim and South Burnett local government areas.

There is good news for residents in the flood-prone Ipswich suburb of Goodna, west of Brisbane, after escaping any damage from flooding.

The Bremer river peaked at Ipswich at 13.9 metres on Monday evening, well below the predicted 15 metres.

Ipswich councillor Paul Tully told the ABC not one of the 600 homes and businesses evacuated in his suburb of Goodna had flooded.

''People are going to wake to the most joyous news,'' he said.

Mayor Paul Pisasale said people would be able to return home today.

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan visited Ipswich today, where a only maximum of 50 properties have had some level of flooding.

Mr Swan said there was a palpable sense of relief.

''It's good to be back here today and to see we've escaped the worst nature can throw at us,'' he told reporters.

Mr Swan said it was heartening to see the mud army out in force in the flood-prone suburb of Goodna.

''I think that's what we're known for, not just here in Queensland but right around the country and it's what I think the world admires about Australia, our capacity to pull together in a time of threat, neighbour helping neighbour,'' he said.

''It's all been on display and I think it is one of the great things that comes out of tragedies.''

He said the damage bill would not be known for some time, and the priority now was dealing with the human impacts of the disaster.

Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has attempted to reassure residents of the affected areas that the overall flooding won't be as severe as in 2011, but concedes that local flooding is worse in some parts of the state.

Mr Newman said floodwaters moving at more than 70km/h in Bundaberg had the potential to wash away houses.

But with the disaster affecting most of central and southeast Queensland, he said the government had to be careful where it placed emergency resources.

"Once again, sadly Quee
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Wild weather hits NSW, Thanks Oswald.















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PNG disaster response lacking, says head

Papua New Guinea's National Disaster Centre says it does not have adequate resources to respond quickly to natural disasters.

The centre has been critised for its slow response in helping tens of thousands of people affected by flooding in PNG's Morobe and Oro provinces and part of the highland provinces..

The director, Martin Mose, says it cannot respond within 24 to 72 hours because a lack of workers and funding.

He called on PNG's 22 provinces and its administrations to hire more people to speed up the disaster response time

"Wwe have not been well resourced both at the national level at the national disaster centre and, of course, at the provincial level," Mr Mose said.

"As well they have not been well resourced in terms of manpower and funding and that definitely affects logistics strengths or capacity of provincial disaster offices."


© ABC 2013
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Quoting riblet2000:
"Winter Storm Luna"
You should be ashamed. Do the Weather Channel marketers require you do hype this nonsense?


Actually, he admitted the other day that he does it entirely at his discretion. I can't remember the exact post/blog, but dig a bit and you'll find it. I think it was back before we had Kahn.
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"Winter Storm Luna"
You should be ashamed. Do the Weather Channel marketers require you do hype this nonsense?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder when we'll see something like this in the United States again:



It's been seven years since the last major hurricane (Wilma). Still, I suppose people (myself included, perhaps) are too hung up on categories, when Sandy demonstrated quite clearly that such classifications are sometimes meaningless.


hurricane season will be again with us... I hope there will be hurricanes worth looking and being excited about like in 2008/2007/2005...FULLY IGNORING the dangers
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
we got this right here right now

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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