Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Is it spring or is it winter? Wild roller coaster of temperatures for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013

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Is it spring or is it winter? The wild roller coaster ride of January 2013 weather continues this week, as Winter Storm Luna spreads snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the Midwest and Northeast today, to be replaced by a spring-like surge of warm air nearly unprecedented in warmth and moisture for January. Temperatures in Oklahoma City have only reached 80° three times during January since 1890, but threaten to do so again today, and record-breaking high temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of Kansas and Missouri. Accompanying the exceptional January warmth will be near-record January moisture, as a flow of unusually moist air rides northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are about 0.3°F above average. Meteorologists use a term called "precipitable water" to discuss how much water vapor is in the atmosphere. Precipitable water is defined as how much rain would fall on the ground if one took a vertical slice of the atmosphere above a given location and condensed all the water vapor into rain. Precipitable water levels tend to be highest in the summer, since warm air holds more waver vapor, and can exceed two inches in the Midwest U.S. In winter, though, it is rare to see precipitable water values higher than one inch. However, current model runs are predicting that precipitable water values on Tuesday evening will be near record values for January over much of the Central U.S. The high moisture will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" over the Midwest. These rains are likely to cause flooding problems in areas where the rain falls on frozen soils with a significant snow pack. Flood watches are posted for much of Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, and Northwest Ohio, as a result. Here are the record January precipitable water values for some selected upper-air observation sites, along with the forecast precipitable water values for Tuesday evening from the latest run of the NAM model (thanks to Nick Wiltgen of TWC for compiling this):

Detroit, MI: Record: 1.20" at 00Z 1/11/75. Forecast: 1.2"
Nashville, TN: Record: 1.50" at 12Z 1/21/59. Forecast: 1.1"
Little Rock, AR: Record: 1.91" at 12Z 1/13/71. Forecast: 1.5"
Lincoln, IL: Record: 1.35" at 12Z 1/12/60. Forecast: 1.3"

Accompanying the heavy rain on Tuesday will be the threat of severe weather. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are likely in the Moderate Risk area.

Figure 1. Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in their "Moderate Risk" region for severe weather on Tuesday. This is the first "Moderate Risk" forecast issued during 2013.

Dangerous air pollution episode finally eases in Utah
As I blogged about last week, clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion combined to create a dangerous air pollution episode in Northeast Utah in Salt Lake City and surrounding regions. However, over the weekend, a surge of warmer air and rain pushed into Utah, breaking up the temperature inversion, and bringing an end to the week-long pollution episode. In Salt Lake City, fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) peaked at 59 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday, nearly double the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours.) But by Sunday morning, PM 2.5 levels fell below 35 micrograms per cubic meter for the first time in over a week, allowing the city to finally breathe a little easier. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution had been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 132 micrograms per cubic meter. On Sunday, air pollution levels in Provo also fell below the federal standard for the first time in over a week. With the forecast calling for snow through Tuesday and strong westerly winds building in, pollution levels should stay out of the red zone for at least the first part of this week. Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, estimates that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.

Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 23 - 28, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the first part of the period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. The wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots) while the pollution was in excess of the federal standard, but on the 27th, the wind rose to 10 mph, helping flush out the pollution. Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters

Icy Kiss? (ceocrocker)

To me, it looks a bit like a Hershey Kiss, but it also looks a little mammary in nature. I'll let each person make their own interpretation of Mother Nature's art!

Smogy conditions (SlimJ77)

For the last 10 days we have had terrible smog in the valleys. I drove up above it the other day and took these pictures. Bad air quality for all of us. Today we get a freezing rain storm because of it, causing all sorts of mess.

Categories: Heat Extreme Weather Air and Water Pollution

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401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:37 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
climate change is a done deal the sooner we stop arguing over it and accepting it as fact better of we will be to do something about it if we can do anything at all whats that old sayin we made our bed now lay in it Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40479

402. LargoFl 2:38 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

403. LargoFl 2:39 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

404. AussieStorm 2:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Mozambique military on flood duty MOZAMBIQUE'S military has been called in to help tackle severe flooding that has killed 48 people and is likely to spread to the country's central and northern regions, officials say. The armed forces have begun helping with clean-up operations in the devastated southern town of Chokwe, which has borne the brunt of the flooding caused by heavy rains. "We can confirm the army is helping support the affected people," said Benjamin Chabualo, spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence told AFP. Soldiers have also been involved in rescue efforts and the navy has ferried people by boat to reach areas isolated by flooding. According to UN figures around 250,000 people have been affected by the floods and 146,000 people are being housed in temporary shelters. Water levels have begun to recede in the south of the country, but the situation remains critical, and the centre and north are expected to be hit by fresh rain. In Chokwe many homes have been completely inundated, and the flood surge has left in its wake piles of rubbish, mud and the detritus of lives destroyed. "In Chokwe families have begun cleaning their homes and (the national civil protection unit) will help the municipality to clean the city," civil protection spokeswoman Rita Almeida said. Even as the floods ebb in some places, residents faced a tough slog to get clean food, water, shelter and avoid a legion of risks. "The rains over southern Mozambique have ceased for the time being, and the floodwaters are slowly receding. However, many have lost everything in the floods," according to a UN situation report. At least 48 people have died, some electrocuted by severed power lines trailing in the water, some crushed by collapsed buildings and some attacked by crocodiles At temporary shelters aid agencies are feeding approximately 70,000 people. While tens of thousands of people have made their way to government camps, many more have not. "We know there are a great many people affected who did not turn up at these centres," said Rita Almeida, Mozambique's national disaster management institute. Some may have gone to the houses of family and friends, others, in more remote regions, remained stranded. Helicopters are airlifting food and medical supplies to isolated areas. "We are lifting supplies to places where neither boats or vehicles can enter," the Director-General of Mozambique's Disaster Management Institute (INGC) said on national radio. "We are doing all in our power to get food to people where they need it." AAP January 30, 2013 1:27AM Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

405. washingtonian115 2:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: climate change is a done deal the sooner we stop arguing over it and accepting it as fact better of we will be to do something about it if we can do anything at all whats that old sayin we made our bed now lay in it Your right.!.I just finished making my bed.Now I can finally lay down and finish reading that book I got earlier and sip on a cup of tea while I'm at it.I have to pick up the kids around 12:00 this afternoon to take them to the doctors appointment. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10627

406. LargoFl 2:41 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

407. LargoFl 2:43 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

408. Neapolitan 2:43 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting stormchaser43: Dr. Spencer is a climatologist, is he not? An oft-discredited and debunked one, yes, and one with a long history of ties to the fossil fuel industry (and--it should be noted--a staunch believer in "Intelligent Design", as non-scientific and ignore-the-evidence a "theory" as has ever ventured down the pike). It's really no surprise that an article on Fox News--that paragon of journalistic excellence--would quote at length someone like Spencer while ignoring the hundreds and thousands of credible climate scientists who would be happy to go on record as refuting nearly everything Spencer says. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148

409. Barefootontherocks 2:45 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
From NWS Norman... ... Record warmest low and high temperatures broken at Wichita Falls... The record warmest low temperature for January 28 at Wichita Falls was 56 degrees... which was set back in 1968. Yesterday at Sheppard Air Force base... the low temperature was 58 degrees... which had broken the record for the warmest low temperature for that date. The record warmest warmest high temperature for January 28 at Wichita Falls was 80 degrees... which was set back in 1970. Yesterday at Sheppard Air Force base... the high temperature was 81 degrees... which had broken the record for the warmest high temperature for that date. Temperature records for Wichita Falls date back to 1923. Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16297

410. AussieStorm 2:47 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Goodnight all, Stay safe, if your in any risk area, please have your NOAA WX radio or stay tuned to your local radio station. It just might save your life. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

411. pcola57 2:51 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
My local outlook.. Regional Forecast for Coastal Escambia Today cloudy Cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Inland...southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Along the coast...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Tonight nt_cloudy Cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening...then numerous showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. Inland...southeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Along the coast... southeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight Temp. \| Dew Point 61 \| 63 72 \| 67 67 \| 63 67 \| 65 Wind 7 mph SE 13 mph SE 13 mph SE 14 mph SSE Humidity 96% 81% 86% 97% Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 10% 60% Cloud Cover 100% 93% 100% 100% Conditions Overcast Overcast Rain Showers Thunderstorm Sunrise & Sunset 6:41 AM 5:23 PM Source: National Digital Forecast Database View Detailed Hourly Forecast Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3816

412. VR46L 2:52 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Will it ever end Sigh!!!!! Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2754

413. GeoffreyWPB 2:56 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
For West Palm Beach...85 tomorrow!...Another winter without a winter for south Florida... Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9119

414. washingtonian115 2:57 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L: Will it ever end Sigh!!!!! I wish we had storms like that with the cold air in place.Talk about blizzards everywhere.Luckily for you guys the the gulf stream protects you from such.This some how makes me alot more excited about this hurricane season than I have been in a few months. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10627

415. BleachwaterFox 3:03 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Doesn't look like fun down in Coffeyville, KS Member Since: May 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

416. VR46L 3:04 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115: I wish we had storms like that with the cold air in place.Talk about blizzards everywhere.Luckily for you guys the the gulf stream protects you from such.This some how makes me alot more excited about this hurricane season than I have been in a few months. Oh God ! Wash I dont know ... it could mean the activity remains or be totally spent . Its starting to get to me right now . Electric flickering, rain ,50+ Knotts of wind gusts for the last 4 days . I hope its not a sign for the coming season . Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2754

417. GeoffreyWPB 3:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Nik Wallenda tightrope walk, watch live stream: Sarasota stunt video streaming live Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9119

418. washingtonian115 3:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L: Oh God ! Wash I dont know ... it could mean the activity remains or be totally spent . Its starting to get to me right now . Electric flickering, rain ,50+ Knotts of wind gusts for the last 4 days . I hope its not a sign for the coming season . Well a few days ago Doc had posted the list of the strongest storms in the northern Atlantic.Most of them occured in inactive hurricane seasons.I'm not to sure though if it has any correlation..maybe just a coincidence at most...But I do beleive we'll have a active hurricane season at best considering La nina wants to form.I'm looking forward to Karin!.Let her wrath come apon this blog for all those jokes.lol. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10627

419. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:11 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Just a reminder for those who live in near/in the moderate risk area...the Memphis NOAA weather radio service is down for today's event. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278

421. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

422. washingtonian115 3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Quoting brywalker: Excites for storms that kill people every year, and it is getting worse. HORRIBLE THOUGHTS!!!!! Sign..why did I know someone was going to think this.And why the hell do they never catch other bloggers but always me.ALWAYS F'ING ME!.Well let me tell you something buster.If theirs one thing I'm not into hurricanes because they KILL or cause DESTRUCTION.When they are out their in the ocean and minding their own buisness they are beautiful to look at and to watch grow and die.Like people do.They grow up get mature AND THEN DIE.So STFU. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10627

423. JTDailyUpdate 3:27 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
New Product Release By the SPC: A tornado environment browser for the contiguous United States is now available. A tornado environment—convective mode sample (2003-2011) displays statistical information of supercell-related convective parameters accompanied by smoothed tornadic convective mode climatology images. Link Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

424. Thrawst 3:39 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
I think today may eventually end up being quite similar to the Outbreak on December 25th, 2012. A solid squall line formed in the morning, and a few discrete supercells formed out ahead of it, creating several warnings and eventually plenty of tornadoes. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this could actually be a more intense day than December 25th. Parameters are just so intense, and, according to satellite images, Arkansas and Louisiana is seeing sunshine below cirrus clouds. Not good. Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1057

425. aspectre 3:48 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
397 stormchaser43: Dr. Spencer is a climatologist, is he not? Not that I'm aware of. Unless he's picked up quite a bit of education, Dr.RoySpencer's specialty was satellite data interpretation; primarily famous for first noticing (then assigning an erroneousinterpretation to) some raw data that apparently contradicted GlobalWarming back in the late80s/early90s. Failed to take into account orbital degradation's effect on Dopplering, as pointed out by other letters in the next issue. Still, plaudits for being the first to notice, then getting a letter (critical of an earlier article) published in Science pointing to the apparent contradiction... so that others could correct for that previously unnoticed DopplerEffect. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

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