Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb
In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.
Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.
Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:
920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).
921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)
924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)
925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)
925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)
For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.
Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.
The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records
Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic
Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.
Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.
Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A balmy 66 degrees this morning with a high expected around 75 later.
I've added muffins and bagals with honey butter, cream cheese and jelly alongside Largo's coffee. Enjoy.
It doesn't look like a huge event, but scattered damaging winds will definitely be a threat as we should see a pretty big squall line form. A few isolated tornadoes are possible as well, but wind is definitely the bigger threat.
This morning I woke to a couple inches of snow on the ground, a couple tenths of an inch of ice, and no school. My first weather related school closing in 2 winters. So far, there are about 600 school closing in the Metro Detroit area. There are also numerous accidents on the roads this morning.
Good Evening, I have added a bottle of Jim Beam Black beside these if anyone needs something a bit stronger.
Yeah everything is covered in a layer of ice making travel unsafe. Besides, I really wanted this day to have no school, one more rest day after mid-terms.
injured in an incident earlier this morning at Gordon Park.
Initial information suggests that at around 8.30am a 34-year-old woman and the
3-year-old boy were standing on Kedron Brook bikeway watching floodwater when they were struck by a falling tree.
They were both taken to hospital in a critical condition.
Police will prepare a report for the coroner.
State of Queensland (Queensland Police Service) 2013
Hmmm, a little of that in my coffee sounds interesting, Aussie coffee vs Irish coffee. Must try it. Hope all the rains are not affecting you.
Time to start another week. Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, enjoy your Tuesday!
Can you check this link please... Late news via online stream. Link
Rainfall since 9am
Doppler Winds. The deep blue is 90km/h+ (56mph+)
Currently Bundaberg in Queensland is waiting for a 9.5m(31.1ft) flood peak tonight. Not sure how the Bundaberg Rum Distillery will fair with the flooding as it's right beside the river. This will be the worst flooding Bundaberg has ever had, even worse than January 2011.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
A flood warning service has been launched for the east coast of Scotland as several flood alerts have also been put in place across the country.
The new Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) warning system covers 28 areas form the Borders to Angus.
The alerts, an extension of Sepa's existing Floodline warnings, are sent direct to mobile phones or by email.
Strong winds and heavy seas battered the east coast in December, causing extensive damage and flooding.
The flood alerts for Monday have been put in place for Argyll and Bute, Ayrshire and Arran, Caithness and Sutherland, Central, Dumfries and Galloway, Dundee and Angus, Orkney, Scottish Borders, Skye and Lochaber, Tayside, West Central Scotland, Wester Ross and the Western Isles.
The alerts indicate that "Flooding is possible, be prepared".
Launching the new warning system, Sepa's Dr David Pirie said: "We are delighted to launch the new coastal flood warning service for the firths of Forth and Tay.
"It represents a major investment in building community resilience to coastal flooding.
"As we saw before Christmas, this can cause significant disruption and damage so it's vital we are aware and prepared for it."
Protect homes
Communities along the estuaries on the east coast in Angus, Tayside, Fife, Falkirk, Edinburgh, East Lothian and the Borders are covered by the service.
The alerts cover the likelihood and timing of any flooding threat.
They are aimed at giving people time to take action to protect their homes and businesses and to allow people travelling through flooded areas to make alternative arrangements.
Sepa estimates there are 125,000 properties at risk from flooding in Scotland, the equivalent of one in 22 homes and one in 13 businesses.
Environment Minister Paul Wheelhouse added: "This new scheme is a crucial step to make sure local communities are informed and ready well in advance of any potential flooding."
BBC © 2013
We should see a Moderate risk tomorrow.
Photo's thanks to Higgins Storm Chasing
It is hard when we are predicted to have 91 degree temps on Wednesday, in our winter and Sydney is only going to reach 77 in their summer!!!!
OK. somebody explain it to me.
This is the dry season in Florida and we need the cold to keep water in our lakes. We made some headway back toward decent lake water levels since last spring, but it is going to get BAD again without rain or cold to stop evaporation. I see the drought index for the upper Mississippi is looking way too high still. Could someone just move the Jet over half a continent for a week or two. That might give North East snow plows a break and the rest of us something to plow or puddle.
AGW??? LOL
Today's weather for two major festivals in the area should be near perfect.
According to Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker, those attending the Gasparilla Pirate Fest in Tampa and Kumquat Festival in Dade City will enjoy temperatures in the low to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. And they won't get wet, since there is no rain in the forecast.
"It'll be a pleasant, great day for Gasparilla," Linker said. "We've had some years in the past where it was kind of chilly out for Gasparilla, but not today. Just make sure you bring some extra water and, of course, sun screen."
Today's temperatures will be a little cooler along the coastline if an onshore breeze develops, Linker said.
Warm and sunny conditions will continue Sunday - in fact, the highs will approach 80 degrees - and through the first part of the work week. The weather will stay spring-like until Thursday, when a cold front will bring a chance of rain and drop temperatures.
"This next warm spell won't be quite as warm as the recent one where we had all the record heat, but it's going to be pleasant over the next few days," Linker said.
How do you move masses of people? Look at the water lapping at their feet in Bundaberg.
Is this when they evacuated one of the evacuation centres. Great Aussie ingenuity and mateship!!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FELLENG (07-20122013)
16:00 PM RET January 28 2013
=====================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (996 hPa) located at 13.2S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots
Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 57.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 14.0S 55.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.3S 52.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.4S 51.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
==========================
System keeps on moving generally westwards on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures. Available scatterometry data at 0724z OSCAT swath suggest a field of wind becoming less assymetrical, with always a good feeding monsoon flow.
Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track at short range. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 24-36 hours.
On this forecast track, the weak to moderate southeasterly to southerly vertical wind shear is expected to limit intensification within the next 24-36 hours. Then, environmental conditions improve progressively in relationship with the weakening vertical wind shear and with a second upper level outflow building poleward on and after Thursday. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Environmental conditions are then very favorable for further intensification. However, the vicinity of the Malagasy coastline should be a limiting factor.
On and after Wednesday, system is then expected to undergo the northerly steering influence of the mid-level ridge in its east and to track southwards.
Given all the above, unhabitants of eastern Malagasy coastline should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
18:00 PM FST January 28 2013
=================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (1000 hPa) located at 11.5S 166.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased much near the center. System lies just south of an upper level ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Good divergence to the west and southeast of the system. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.
Global models have picked up this system and moves it southeastwards with slight intensification.
What!!!!!
Ex-cyclone Oswald now over Tamworth. Heaviest rain approaching #Sydney with 139mm in Gosford since 9am.
Poorly English to french translation, mostly likely instead of "people of"
Link
You'd think that could check it before posting that.
A BRITISH teenager who was crushed by a giant snowball she'd made with friends says she "froze on the spot" when she saw it hurtling towards her.
Nicole Wignall, 16, is recovering in hospital after the snowball pinned her against a wall, breaking her pelvis in four places.
Freezing weather gripped the United Kingdom last week resulting in more than 10 deaths.
Ms Wignall built the giant snowball with friends when her school was closed due to the freezing conditions.
"It took seven of us to push it to the top of a steep hill then we had a break," the student told British newspaper The Sun on Monday.
"(Later) we saw the snowball coming down really fast.
"My friend moved out of the way but I froze on the spot and the snowball smashed into me."
Ms Wignall's mother Fiona said the 1.5m snowball "was the size of a small car".
"She had a very lucky escape."
More than 200 flood alerts are in place across the UK as heavy rain mixed with melting snow marks the latest weather battle.
they've been posting it that way for years too, LOL
24F and a forecast for snow today thru Wednesday! We will be getting on the slopes in about 2 hours or our 1st day of skiing! I'm like a little kid about to go to Disney I'm so excited!
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