Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:04 PM GMT on January 26, 2013

Share this Blog
35
+

In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on
Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.

The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post,
Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 172 - 122

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like a cool front gets here thursday,not too bad though..only down 10 degree's but cold mornings once again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Popping in for a sec to check the coffee and wish everyone a good day. I'm out the door to the airport in about half an hour from now on my way to Breck for a week of skiing. I'll report the weather from there for the next 6 days!

54F on da Bayou Grande this am.
have a safe trip and have a great time my friend!..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great Planes forecast: Kansas City is drought stricken.


A chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 62. South southeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South southwest wind 11 to 16 mph becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday A slight chance of showers after 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night A chance of showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday A chance of showers before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPC adds a slight risk area but they say can go up to moderate risk later.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14255
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Popping in for a sec to check the coffee and wish everyone a good day. I'm out the door to the airport in about half an hour from now on my way to Breck for a week of skiing. I'll report the weather from there for the next 6 days!

54F on da Bayou Grande this am.

Safe flight mate, Enjoy your break. Stay warm. Don't eat yellow snow, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
G'morning all. Popping in for a sec to check the coffee and wish everyone a good day. I'm out the door to the airport in about half an hour from now on my way to Breck for a week of skiing. I'll report the weather from there for the next 6 days!

54F on da Bayou Grande this am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Toowoomba




Brisbane River, Brisbane.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Madagascar could be in big trouble if this becomes reality.

48hrs


240hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
QPS Media Unit ‏@QPSmedia
ENERGEX: 128,000 homes without power in South East. Many areas won't have it restored until tomorrow due to dangerous conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe Weather Warning
for destructive winds, damaging winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and damaging surf
for people in the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Illawarra and Central Tablelands forecast districts

Issued at 4:14 pm EDT on Sunday 27 January 2013.

VERY HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS AND SURF OVER NORTHEASTERN NSW.
Weather Situation

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald currently located over southern Queensland expected to move rapidly south through eastern New South Wales on Monday to be near Sydney around midnight on Monday.

Abnormally high tides which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas and very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion are forecast for the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast expected to extend to Hunter, Metropolitan and Illawarra forecast districts during Monday. Beach conditions in these areas will be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the Northern Rivers forecast district. Destructive winds are expected to ease gradually during Monday morning.

Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands expected to extend to Metropolitan and Hunter forecast districts during Monday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is falling in Northern Rivers, Northern Tablelands, Mid North Coast districts and is forecast to extend to the Hunter overnight and to the Metropolitan, Central Tablelands and Illawarra forecast districts by Monday afternoon.

Heavy rain is expected to ease in the Northern River district during Monday morning and in Mid-North cost in the afternoon.

Since 9am Sunday 99 mm has been recorded at Hopkins Ck (near Mullumbimby), 70 mm in Coffs Harbour and Comboyne.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF

For people in the
Southeast Coast and parts of the
Wide Bay and Burnett and
Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:45 pm Sunday, 27 January 2013.

Synoptic Situation:
At 7pm EST, the centre of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was located approximately 20km south of Chinchilla and 70km west northwest of Dalby. The system was moving southeast at about 20 km/h and is expected to contract into New South Wales on Monday.

Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125km/h, with possible tornado activity, are occurring about the Southeast Coast district near and south of Cape Moreton, extending west into the eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Cape Moreton recorded a wind gust of 125km/h at 2:46pm and again at 6:40pm. Spitfire Channel and Redcliffe recorded a wind gust of 90km/h at 7pm. This activity could cause significant damage or destruction to homes and property in localised areas.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding has also contracted south and is now focused over the Southeast Coast district south of Brisbane to the New South Wales border, extending west to include the Great Dividing Range and the Granite Belt. Six hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 100mm are likely. This could lead to rapid river and stream rises. Widespread 24 hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 250mm are likely.

Currently, the heaviest rain is located on radar over the Gold Coast and adjacent hinterland. Mudgeeraba has recorded 140mm in the 3 hours to 7:30pm, while Benobble (near Mt Tamborine) has recorded 111mm and Canungra 105mm. Mount Nebo has recorded 274mm, Upper Springbrook 267mm, Mt Castle 222mm and Dayboro 193mm since 9am.

The area of heavy rain and destructive wind gusts will continue to contract south during the remainder of today and Monday.

Water levels on the morning high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal and island locations from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border on Monday. The sea level is likely to rise above the normal tide and the exposed beaches will experience damaging waves and flooding of some low lying areas close to the shoreline.

Dangerous surf conditions, with significant beach erosion, are expected along the coast from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border for the remainder of today and Monday. This includes Hervey Bay and northern parts of Moreton Bay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bundaberg set for worst flood in a century

THE battered city of Bundaberg is bracing for one of its worst floods in history as it bears the brunt of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald.

One man is confirmed dead and hundreds of homes and businesses are expected to be inundated on Sunday night as the Burnett River rises towards a peak not seen in the central Queensland town in over a century.

Premier Campbell Newman says at least 300 homes and 100 businesses in Bundaberg will be inundated if the flood peak on Sunday night eclipses the 2010/11 level, as it's expected to do.

Bundaberg Regional Council Mayor Mal Forman says about 40 homes have been flooded and the army has been called in to help evacuate people.

He says Burnett River will peak at 8.5 metres on Sunday night, well above the 7.92m peak of 2010/11.

It will reach a second peak of 9m on Tuesday, when water from the catchments flows downstream.

The only other time on record a flood peak reached 9m was in 1893-94, meaning the town was heading into unknown territory, Mr Forman said.

"It's going to challenge us. It will be our greatest challenge," he told AAP.

"We do ask people to have patience and let us do our job and hopefully we can all get through it with the least amount of damage and hurt."

About 460 people are already in two evacuation centres with many more fleeing to relatives' homes on higher ground, while about 150 businesses have also been evacuated.

Two defence force Blackhawk helicopters are flying in from Townsville to help.

Residents are being told to prepare to spend several nights away from their homes.

Meanwhile, the body of an elderly man was found in the tornado-hit coastal town of Burnett Heads, northeast of Bundaberg, on Sunday morning.

Police said he had fallen overboard from a yacht which had broken from its mooring.

On Saturday afternoon and evening five tornadoes ripped through the coastal region near Bundaberg, injuring more than a dozen people and damaging 250 homes.

Two people were critically injured when a giant pine tree fell on their parked car on the Esplanade at Bargara, and about a dozen more were injured by flying glass and other debris.

Two homes were completely destroyed in the mini-cyclone that struck Burnett Heads.

Community Safety Minister Jack Dempsey, whose electorate takes in the tornado-struck region, said shell-shocked locals told him the tornado sounded like a jet landing and afterwards it looked like a bulldozer had ploughed through the area.

"When the force hit the Esplanade in Bargara it wasn't just smashing things, it actually sucked the air out of the buildings and blew out the windows," he told AAP.

Premier Campbell Newman visited Bundaberg on Sunday morning as part of a tour of disaster-hit regions and later told a press conference of meeting a couple whose home, caravan and car had been significantly damaged.

"My heart goes out to them," he said.

Residents have been warned sewage will be present in floodwaters because the council's sewerage pump stations aren't operating.



news.com.au
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Indonesia landslides kill 11, 19 missing

TWO landslides triggered by heavy rains killed at least 11 people and left 19 others missing on Indonesia's Sumatra island, officials said on Sunday.

The National Disaster Management Agency said seven people were killed and three people were injured in a landslide in Agam district in West Sumatra province early on Sunday.

"At this point, seven people were found dead and three others were injured... and 18 were missing," agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said in a text message.

Fifteen houses were also buried by the landslide, he added.

Separately, a landslide caused by heavy rains late on Saturday killed four workers at a drilling site belonging to PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy in Kerinci district in Jambi province, the company said in a press release.

"The landslide killed four people, injured five people, and left one person missing. All victims were workers who were drilling," it said.

Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is prone to frequent bursts of heavy rain.

Heavy rain in the capital Jakarta this month caused 32 deaths and at its peak forced nearly 46,000 people to flee their inundated homes, Nugroho told AFP earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:
it may be close to 1am where I am... but i cant sleep :/ sooo I figured I'd jump on... How did u guys start talking about snakes/spiders?

The photo I posted at comment 98 started it all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF ICE...LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET.

* TIMING...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET TO ALSO
ACCUMULATE...ADDING TO THE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

JE/BAJ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Folks!..the coffee is perked for when you get here!...have a great day everyone..and has anyone seen that BIG huge full moon in the night skies this week?..cloudless skies down here..you can really see it..simply beautiful...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


Keep doing them! :)


sure
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes... forgot that one.

No problem...love doing it


Keep doing them! :)
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:


Did you mean the island of Niihau when you wrote Nihue?


yes... forgot that one.

No problem...love doing it
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HAWAII WEATHER REPORT... 81 UPDATED
_______________________________

Heavy rains for Hawaii in the upcoming week..
Sorry, I noticed I did lots of spelling errors...so it's now fixed.




Did you mean the island of Niihau when you wrote Nihue?

BTW, thanks for posting this.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Big wintry mess in the Chicago area
Winter storm Luna (really...moon??)

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
HAWAII WEATHER REPORT... 81 UPDATED
_______________________________

Heavy rains for Hawaii in the upcoming week..
Sorry, I noticed I did lots of spelling errors...so it's now fixed.


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting AussieStorm:


Um........ That is not a stick, that is a very deadly Brown Snake seeking refuge on the window of a flooded car. A bite from that snake, you'll be dead within an hour.

Photo courtesy of State Emergency Service Queensland


Australia has no shortage of snake species which are capable of producing death quite quickly.

Along with the Funnel Web spoidah (er.. spider) in the Sydney suburbs, these snakes make it imperative that one always be conscious of where feet and hands are touching or reaching at all times when in Oz.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 721
**Edit: Link at the bottom is of the 2011 floods! Current flooding is showed in a video montage at the top of this page. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-27/live-wild-w eather-queensland-calls-in-army/4486270

Before and after Queensland flooding pictures. http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/qld-floods/

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

__________________________________________

As long as there is contact, forget about the rest...

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
143. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
10:00 AM RET January 27 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.6S 63.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3S 61.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.8S 58.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.1S 54.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.9S 52.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
For the last 6 hours, pattern of the system has few evolved. First visible satellite pictures show a partially exposed low level circulation center south of convection that is rejected northward due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear (estimated at 9 knots thanks to 0000z CIMSS data). OSCAT data of yesterday evening and 0350z SSMIS f18 (curved band on 0.3 wrap) suggest that near gale force winds exist in the eastern semi-circle.

System keeps on tracking westward to west southwestward on the northern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestward track throughout the next 72 hours (ARPEGE-ALADIN suggest a few more southwestward track). Over this forecast track, the upper level southeastern vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen progressively within the next hours, and to keep on being unfavorable until monday late or tuesday morning. So a significant deepening seems not likely for the next 36 hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Therefore, system is expected to regularly strengthen and to undergo the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east northeast

After Wednesday and up to the end of the forecast range, system is expected to slow down and re-curve south southwestward along the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
142. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #31
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 27 2013
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 23.2S 158.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has not changed much past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to southeast of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper shortwave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good in southeast quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on 35nm sheared distance from deep convection edge, yielding DT=2.5. MET=2.0 and PT=2.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.2S 156.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 27.8S 152.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you've not been outside to see the moon yet, and are in a position to actually, physically see it (clear skies), then I suggest going to look at it. Tonight's full moon is what they call a Full Wolf Moon. It's nothing rare, but still interesting to look at.

Reminds me of that cute Volvo commercial ... implying I suspect, that the vehicle can handle any sort of road conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Friendly or Deadly??



That depends. Do heart attacks count?

Added

"The red-bellied black snake is somewhat less venomous than many other Australian snakes, but you're more likely to come across it in urban areas and its bite is certainly no picnic, causing significant illness and requiring medical attention.

Red-bellied blacks are one of the few large venomous snakes still found in the Sydney region, and at 2m-long are capable of eating other snakes. They are not particularly aggressive and will escape from humans if possible, but when threatened will flatten their bodies and hiss loudly.

The venom causes blood-clotting disorder and muscle and nerve damage, enough to knock you off your feet, but rarely deadly. No deaths have been confirmed from bites by this species."

Source
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Gaboon Viper....WIKI.....-GaboonViper.Bitis gabonica, commonly known as the Gaboon viper, is a venomous viper species found in the rainforests and savannas of sub-Saharan Africa. This is not only the largest member of the genus Bitis, but also the world's heaviest viperid, and it has the longest fangs (up to 2 inches), and the highest venom yield of any venomous snake. Two subspecies are currently recognized, including the nominate race described here.

The species is also commonly known as butterfly adder, forest puff adder, or swampjack.Pic wont show darn it...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Quoting Doppler22:
it may be close to 1am where I am... but i cant sleep :/ sooo I figured I'd jump on... How did u guys start talking about snakes/spiders?


yeah...can't sleep either... I'll be here for a little while
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
134. Skyepony (Mod)
Flooding from the Atlantic low.

Large areas of Wales have been hit by flooding as emergency services dealt with hundreds of calls. Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Swansea and parts of southeast Wales all suffered floods after a warning of localised flooding was issued by the Environment Agency Wales on Friday night. And there was a further warning of more rain to come, with Wales set to be among the areas worst affected. Chris Burton, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, said temperatures could rise to around 8C today before reaching more than 10C in the south tomorrow, followed by wet and windy weather next week. He said: "Heavy rain will fall across most parts of Britain tonight and into tomorrow morning. "The worst affected areas will be the west of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, which will see up to an inch of rain overnight. "Combined with rapid melting snow it brings a risk of localised flooding." Aled Edwards, 25, of Rhydargaeau, travelled to Llanddowror, Carmarthenshire, on Friday night as a voluntary member of 4x4 Response Wales to help householders caught in the floods. He said: "The water seemed to be running down from the mountains behind the houses. It was just gushing down into these houses. In some places it was 3ft to 4ft deep with water." One homeowner told Aled the floods were the "worst he had ever seen" in the area, while others spoke of the damage to their properties. Aled said: "I spoke to one guy there who said he had almost finished a new build there, and the floods had set him back quite a bit."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
133. Skyepony (Mod)
This is 94S

Here's the cloudsat. Click boxes 14 & 15.

Heavy rains in Zimbabwe have seen many people losing their lives and homes. Some villagers expressed shock at the insensitivity of authorities who have turned a blind eye to their plight. For example Tinevimbo Beni, who lives in Mawale village lost two children when the room they were sleeping in caved in. "We have not received any help from any quarter so far. We were hoping that we would receive some sort of assistance," said Beni, standing next to the room where her children perished. "I would like to rebuild my homestead." Another villager Mboneni Sibanda also lost her only two-roomed house which was completely flattened. She, however, escaped harm as she went to seek shelter at a neighbour%u2019s homestead before the house collapsed. In Mawale village alone, more than 15 homesteads were destroyed. Other affected areas include Tshasvingo, Tshitulipasi and Chikwalakwala. Heavy rains started pounding the area on Friday last week and only abated on Tuesday. Beitbridge district administrator Simon Muleya, who also heads the local Civil Protection Unit (CPU), said they had not turned a blind eye to flood victims, but were merely prioritising help to the most affected areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it may be close to 1am where I am... but i cant sleep :/ sooo I figured I'd jump on... How did u guys start talking about snakes/spiders?
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3743
First half of February should be cold across much of the East, especially for the northern half (northern planes across the Great Lakes and into the NE). The polar vortex which is pretty much nonexistent at this point will reform along the backside of an amplifying ridge around Alaska. This will send a nice, fat longwave trough into the East, keeping temperatures below average across the region. The greatest cold (relative to the anomaly) will be in the northern half of the east half of the nation. The SE and South will also be cold for the first week of February. By the second week, however, the SE and South could be looking at above averarge temperatures, as resistance to the longwave trough (ridging) develops in the South. Hard to say how much ridging this region will see at this point because it depends on how the troughing situation evolves beneath the high latitude blocking going on in the Pacific NW and Alaska region.

Here are some different solutions for the 500mb pattern over NA in 300hrs

12z GEFS @300hrs



12z Canadian Ens @300hrs




00z GEFS @300hrs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
130. etxwx
Quoting Wunderwood:
Has this site been purchased by Animal Planet?


LOL, just kind of a lull in the weather I guess.

I'm out for the rest of the evening, hope everyone has a good night.

I guess I'll be counting snakes instead of sheep tonight. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has this site been purchased by Animal Planet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Friendly or Deadly??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting etxwx:
Here's a pic from this spring of one of our local snakes, commonly called a black or rat snake. (non-poisonous) This one was about a 6 footer and had thoroughly woven himself into the bird netting over my blueberry bush. It took me about 15 minutes to un-weave him and then I let him go out near the woods. The next day he was back and had woven himself into the net again! I disentangled him one more time and gave him a severe talking to before I let him go. He stayed away. We also have rattlers, copperheads, and cottonmouths here, but I'm not near so understanding with them.


My first pet snake was a rat snake...and was a lil' brat!!! Very aggressive and would somehow nudge out of the terrarium! Took him back to the pet shop and got a ball python instead who was awesome...awwww, was a special lil' guy, always miss that reptile and tell my daughter about him 20 years later! (gave him to a friend when who really fancied him when I moved from California to Colorado...they hit it off too at least, what a cool snake he was and very clever)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


Never heard that one, I learned it
Red and yellow, deadly fellow.
Red and black, friendly jack.


Red touches yellow,
dangerous fellow.
Red touches black,
friend to Jack.

or

Red on Black,
Friend of Jack.
Red on Yellow,
Watch out, Fellow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

His Daughter, Bindi and Son, Jack, Are just like him. Yeah We all miss him too.


One thing I do also love about the UK...lack of deadly spiders! Growing up with black widows everywhere (and supposedly scorpions and tarantulas [I know all tarantulas aren't deadly] but never saw nay of those) I hate poisonous spiders. Here, I let pretty much the daddy long legs live free...garden variety spiders that look scarier will take outsoide etc...don't mind spiders if I know they're not totally lethal! Have adders here...never seen one, though apparantly can be found round here. Never saw anything but red racers growing up though (though did find BIG non-red racer snake skins in the yard occassionally!).

Anyway, this storm Dr Master is talking about in the blog, must be bringing this wild weather right now. Have had below feezing temps the last week, winter wonderland at my place all the last week, and so pretty. But last night the rain and milder weather came in and started to melt it all (causing a glacier effect on the high elevation, sloping farmland around my place, funky!)...and tonight driving home from work...never had heavy wind and constant, proper torrential driving rain all the way home for my 35-40 minute drive from work. You usually go through a few heavy spells, but was all the way and just mad. My daughter said she surely heard thunder earlier in the night too. All the snow gone now boohoo! But wow, even wild for here, and this super heavy rain with all the snow melt, probably will be very bad in the valleys. The warm front hitting the cold air is causing soem very heavy...been moving inland from last night...already changed to rain here by the time was off work Fri night, but was snowing good on the way to work Fri in front of the warm front...but even colder east and has apparently been as mess as they didn't warn people what happens when a wet warm front collides with the very cold air...lots of snow at first, as those in the US know!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting etxwx:


Oh, I forgot about the coral snake . I dang near stepped on the coral snake lookalike milk snake (Scarlet king snake) one night this fall. I had to stop and quickly think of the rhyme:
Red and yellow kill a fellow,
Red and black, venom lack.







Never heard that one, I learned it
Red and yellow, deadly fellow.
Red and black, friendly jack.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10277
Quoting PedleyCA:
Afternoon Aussie, Good Night Everyone Else. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well.

Good Afternoon.

Sydney Radar....



Brisbane Radar....



Australia View.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
122. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We have all 4 of the deadly snakes in Texas and I have seen them all. Face to face. The Copperhead is the hardest to spot. It blends in perfectly with its background.


Oh, I forgot about the coral snake . I dang near stepped on the coral snake lookalike milk snake (Scarlet king snake) one night this fall. I had to stop and quickly think of the rhyme:
Red and yellow kill a fellow,
Red and black, venom lack.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 172 - 122

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.