Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:04 PM GMT on January 26, 2013

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In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on
Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.

The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post,
Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NAM shows WELL over 1100 j/kg CAPE so I expect as the event nears other models may follow.


I agree with you on this. I was just checking out the NAM and looks to be right.... I just hope everyone keep a close eye out for what is coming Tue and Wed....

Taco :o)
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folks please be careful tues-wens..those 60-80mph straightline winds can really do some damage all by themselves..gulf coast states from texas to georgia plse pay attention to your local warnings ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
NAM shows WELL over 1100 j/kg CAPE so I expect as the event nears other models may follow.

A surface low would do wonders in increasing the severity of this system

ECMWF shows 500-700 j/kg but a very weak surface low.
The GFS does not have any kind of meaningful surface low.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
gee this is going to be an east coast storm..4-8 days..
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Quoting LargoFl:
Tues-wens are going to be very active days in here huh..

Looks to be interesting come Wed for Alabama. Although I beleive that the Tornado Threat will be close to the AL/GA state line going towards Atlanta.... I do know it looks to be Storming here all along the North Gulf Coast....


Taco :o)
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so far it looks like this severe weather is going to miss florida..I dont see any advance warnings for us yet
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Tues-wens are going to be very active days in here huh..
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BIG NEWS NEXT WEEK IS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES...
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Some good news from Climate Progress.

Wind Beats Out Natural Gas To Become Top Source Of New Electricity Capacity For 2012

By Jeff Spross on Jan 22, 2013 at 4:30 pm

Through June of 2012, renewable energy was right behind natural gas in terms of the most new energy generating capacity being installed in the United States, with wind making up most of the renewables push. And now Business Insider has flagged the numbers for the remainder of the year.

Last week, they reported that wind ultimately pulled ahead of natural gas to become the leading installer of new capacity in 2012, at 10,689 total megawatts.

Those numbers came from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s report on the trends and highlights in U.S. energy for the past year. According to FERC’s update, natural gas installed 8,746 megawatts of new capacity, coal installed 4,510 new megawatts, and solar came in fourth with 1,476 new megawatts.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
NAM hinting at a surface low!
I hope it pans out


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FOLKS IN MISSISSIPPI PLEASE PAY ATTENTION..............
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ALABAMA.................CAUTION;Severe thunderstorms possible late Tuesday Night into Wednesday
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warm by me until that front gets here end of next week..
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THREATS: Clearly the biggest risk is a line of severe storms with potential for damaging, straight line winds. This line will race across Alabama with strong dynamic forcing, and has the potential to bring widespread winds of over 40 mph, with severe criteria winds in some places (58 mph or higher). With the forecast LCL heights and helicity values, isolated tornadoes will be possible in any discrete cells that form ahead of the line. Forecast model soundings show a capping inversion early Wednesday morning; hopefully if the squall line (QLCS) comes through early in the day (when the air is more stable) it will limit the tornado threat, even if that does happen we sure can’t rule out a tornado or two.
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northeast gets snow in a week.....................
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So maybe I will get my squall line... :)
..yes maybe..keep alert for tornado's next couple of days..good luck with getting the rains
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So maybe I will get my squall line... :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
rainy set up for most of next week,they need the rains..
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202. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
21:00 PM FST January 27 2013
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (1001 hPa) located at 11.0S 169.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-satellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection has increased in the northern and eastern quadrant in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate shear environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastwards with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW.

System #2
----------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1001 hPa) located at 22.0S 179.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization is poor. Convection has increased in the southern and eastern quadrant in the last 18 hours. System lies in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up this system and moves it southward with slight intensification.
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good,the drought area's getting some rain finally...
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200. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #32
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER GARRY (09F)
21:00 PM FST January 27 2013
======================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Garry (997 hPa) located near 23.5S 158.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has not changed much past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to southeast of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper shortwave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good in southeast quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on 70 NM sheared distance from strong temperature gradient, giving DT=1.5. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on Dvorak constraints.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastwards, weakening it further.

This is the final tropical cyclone disturbance on TC GARRY.
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199. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 27 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.7S 62.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60-70 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3S 60.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.7S 57.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.0S 54.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.2S 51.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
Since 0600z this morning, deep convection has moved more away from the low level circulation center due to persistent moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The vortex is well visible on satellite imagery. Latest ASCAT and OSCAT pictures do not allow to calibrate the winds, but it is likely that near gale force winds still exist in the eastern semi-circle.

System has accelerated by keeping a westward to west southwestward track on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures.

Available nwp models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. System is expected to keep a quite fast west southwestward track throughout the next 48-60 hours (ARPEGE-ALADIN and UKMO suggest a few more south-westward track). Over this forecast track, the upper level southeastern then east southeastern vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen progressively within the next hours, and to keep on being unfavorable until Monday late or Tuesday morning for a significant deepening (intensity should oscillate between 25 and 30 knots.)

Tuesday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Therefore, system is expected to regularly strengthen and to undergo the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east northeast.

Therefore from Wednesday, system is expected to slow down and re-curve south southwestward to move along the eastern Malagasy coastline up to the end of forecast period. Intensification should continue with environmental conditions remaining favorable.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
chicago area in for some weather next couple of days....
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Quoting VR46L:


I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week
stay safe over there ok
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195. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


I wish you best of luck VR46L..
It looks like this one means business..
Is sooo large that I would venture to guess that it would cover most of the US conus..
Stay safe my friend.. :)


Yeah its huge , Thank you very much !! But at least is 10ºF warmer than it was last week .lol
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6972
Quoting VR46L:


I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week


I wish you best of luck VR46L..
It looks like this one means business..
Is sooo large that I would venture to guess that it would cover most of the US conus..
Stay safe my friend.. :)
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193. VR46L
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192. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Wow..That ET Low is huge..
Current GFS Sea Level Pressure Model Image..



Current ECMWF Sea Pressure Model Image..



I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6972
GFS ACCUM SNOW 120Hrs Out..


GFS ACCUM SNOW 96Hrs Out..


NE WRF SFC ACCUM SNOWFALL 48Hrs Out..
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NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day

Comet McNaught Over Chile
Image Credit & Copyright: St%uFFFDphane Guisard

Explanation: Comet McNaught of 2007 has been, so far, the most photogenic comet of our time. After making quite a show in the northern hemisphere in early 2007 January, the comet moved south and developed a long and unusual dust tail that dazzled southern hemisphere observers. In this image, Comet McNaught was captured above Santiago, Chile. The bright comet dominates on the left while part of its magnificent tail spreads across the entire frame. From this vantage point in the Andes Mountains, one looks up toward Comet McNaught and a magnificent sky, across at a crescent moon, and down on clouds, atmospheric haze, and the city lights. The current year -- 2013 -- holds promise to be even better for comets than 2007. In early March, Comet PANSTARRS is on track to become visible to the unaided eye, while at the end of the year Comet ISON shows possibilities that include casting a tail that spreads across the sky, breaking up, and even becoming one of the brightest comets in recorded history.
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Winter Storm Luna is beginning in earnest across the Midwest. All those pink squares with a raindrop icon and ">" sign indicate locations where ice has accumulated on roads, sidewalks, and elevated surfaces but not exact measurement is known.

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Wow..That ET Low is huge..
Current GFS Sea Level Pressure Model Image..



Current ECMWF Sea Pressure Model Image..

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Good Morning All..

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G-night Aussie!
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...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.



QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND
GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE.

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Many records in this century :( too bad
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Goodnight all
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Quoting LargoFl:
I cant believe the flooding in australia, amazing pics there aussie..

Queensland is almost finished with Ex-Oswald. My state is next, all Weatherzone says is my area is expecting 80mm+ (3.15in). Places up in Queensland have had over 600mm(23.6in) in about 50hrs. Thankfully Ex-Oswald has increased his speed and wont be able to dump much more than 100-200mm in the next 3 days.
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so far so good in the states this morning..............
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I cant believe the flooding in australia, amazing pics there aussie..
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alot of fog north of me...................
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Sure are alot of ICE storms this winter lately huh........URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
459 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

...FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...

ILZ012>014-020-022-023-033-INZ001-002-010-011-019 -271915-
/O.COR.KLOT.ZR.Y.0001.130127T1700Z-130127T2200Z/
KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-L AKE IN-PORTER-
NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...
JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...GARY...VALPARAISO.. .MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
459 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013 /559 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013/

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /NOON
EST/ THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST /5 PM EST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
SLEET AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE TO MID AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH JUST
RAIN OCCURRING FROM EARLY EVENING ON INTO THE NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER
IN THE DAY. BY LATER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH JUST RAIN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS...PAVEMENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON
CONTACT AND RESULT IN ICY AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS. SIDEWAYS AND WALKWAYS COULD ALSO TURN TO
SHEETS OF ICE MAKING WALKING DIFFICULT AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ON ICY ROADS.

&&

$$
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Quoting severstorm:
morning all, Fog really thick in zephyrhills fl this am. Largo, i will take the cooler nights instead of those hot humid ones.
yeah i hear ya..my dogs love the cool mornings...
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Quoting LargoFl:
morning all, Fog really thick in zephyrhills fl this am. Largo, i will take the cooler nights instead of those hot humid ones.
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looks like Texas is ok weather wise................
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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