Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:04 PM GMT on January 26, 2013

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In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on
Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.

The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post,
Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Jeff Masters

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272. Skyepony (Mod)
Fairbanks scientists stunned to find intact 40,000-year-old steppe bison in the melting permafrost.

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271. beell
GeorgiaStormz,

A small favor. Could you include some type of identifier with those discussions? I assume they have been from NWS Atlanta.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16734
winds gusting pretty good over by so.texas huh...........
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BTW the NAM backed off on the surface low this time around:

This run:


Last Run:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS...RESULTING IN GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting PedleyCA:


Looks mighty DRY to me.


Water vapor really isn't the tool you want to use if you're wanting to determine whether the atmosphere is dry or not. While sometimes it can, that's only because sometimes if the upper levels are dry then the others layers of the atmosphere are also(deep layer high). The water vapor loop is better for tracking troughing and disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The water vapor loop is most deceiving during the warm season as a more tropical air mass dominates many regions, that is deep moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere but often drier air in the upper levels from an upper anti-cyclone.

If you want to see a better way to measure moisture over a region, look at this page:


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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MONDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS FORECASTING +130KT AT 500MB AT NOON
WED...WHICH IS ALMOST EXTREME
. THE ECMWF/NAM/DGEX WERE MORE RESERVED
WITH WINDS IN THE 80-100KT RANGE (STILL STRONG). THE LATTER TWO WERE
ALSO HINTING AT THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVELY TILTED
ORIENTATION...WHILE THE GFS HAD A NEUTRAL TROUGH
ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 06Z NAM WAS FORECASTING 850MB WINDS NEAR OR
HIGHER THAN 50KT FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH NOON WED. GIVEN SUCH A
WIND FIELD...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE OBVIOUSLY A THREAT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS
. WHILE A SQUALL LINE/QLCS APPEARS PROBABLE...DISCRETE
CELLS FORMING EAST OF A LINE (IF THE LINE FORMS) COULD ROTATE...WITH
A TORNADO THREAT POSED BY THE LINE AND/OR CELLS PRECEDING IT.
EXACTLY
WHAT STORM MODES WILL OCCUR AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS
STILL ABOUND...SO LATTER RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THOSE QUESTIONS.
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GFS at 48 hours..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting taco2me61:


At least the Threat will be gone by our next Mardi Gras Parade for Thursday night... Although it will be a lot cooler but warming back up by Saturday....


Taco :o)
wow i was there for that maybe 15-20 years ago..man what a party you folks throw down there..amazing really...have fun and enjoy ok
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Looks mighty DRY to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HOWEVER...ONE KEY ELEMENT
IN THE MIX IS INSTABILITY...WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 300-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE HIGH 0-6 KM SHR
VALUES...AND THE VERY MODEST FORECAST CAPE AND THIN CAPE
PROFILES...THERE COULD BE A STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
WITHOUT BEING SHEARED APART.
ALSO...BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES FOR
SFC BASED INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHR
DECREASES...WITH SHR BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. THESE FACTORS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT EVEN IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT WILL THEN BE LIMITED TO DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP WERE TO ERODE EARLY ENOUGH...AND WITH
HIGHER LEVELS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A ENHANCED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES

Arkansas
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting LargoFl:
so far it looks like this severe weather is going to miss florida..I dont see any advance warnings for us yet



It's a very strange winter. The placement of thunderstorm and heavy rain events has been much further north than usual, more like what one would find in April rather than the winter.

Frontal systems across the gulf coast and Florida have been very weak so far, when normally strong thunderstorm events in the winter are confined to the Gulf Coast and through central and north Florida.

Normally winter frontal systems don't start to lose their punch in terms of strong thunderstorms and such until they reach far southern Florida.


What scares me is that typically the winter months in Florida feature decent enough rain events just about every year for the subtropical foliage to endure the much drier fall and spring. This winter, fronts in the gulf coast and Florida look more like fronts in April and May. That's bad news, unless their is a major shift in the long term pattern soon, there is only going to be even weaker fronts and even drier warm to possibly even hot when spring arrives if this pattern continues. That would spell utterly severe drought in these regions.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
This happened today to me...it was 5F outside...



Green lights on a 40 mph road... there is a railroad crossing and all of a sudden I see the gates coming down with the flashing red light WHEN THE GREEN TRAFFIC LIGHT WAS STILL THERE !!!

I had to make such a violent stop...feel bad for my car.. :(
wow your lucky no one crashed into from behind huh..I always drive with the window down so i can hear the warning bells and maybe even the train whistle or horn..crossings are dangerous and the train doesnt slow down at all
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 271542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Updated 1040am.
Frontal boundary is becoming less and less distinct this morning
as high pressure builds over the mid-atlantic states. Very few
clouds are noted on satellite imagery at the present, and mostly
sunny skies should persist through the afternoon. Other than a few
minor tweaks to the temperatures this morning, no significant
changes are needed to the forecast for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Tranquil and unseasonably mild weather will continue through this
period as an upper ridge once again builds over the region. Only
an isolated shower is possible and we have capped PoPs at silent
10 into Monday night. Temps will remain mild at night and warm
each afternoon. Min temps will generally be in the 50s with highs
in the mid to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s to lower 80s on
Tuesday. By Tuesday, an upper level trough will be moving out
across the Great Plains. The associated surface cold front will be
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley by 00Z Thursday. A slight
chance PoP was included for Tuesday afternoon across our western
zones, although most of the weather associated with this system
will occur during the long term period of the forecast (see
below).

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
The period will begin with strong upper level ridging moving off
the Southeast U.S. coast. Wed. should remain unseasonably warm
with max temps dependent on how quickly the next cold front
approaches the region from the NW. The global models are now also
in fairly good agreement with the timing of this front, with
slight differences accounting for a either Wed. Night or Thu.
Morning passage. Another important change to this current fcst
will be the increasing possibility for some strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms developing in advance of this Front, as the
models have become more energetic with this system and are carving
out a steeper upper level trough. If the low level instability is
sufficient, the strong dynamics and kinematics could make this a
potentially interesting event, and it will be monitored closely
over the next several days. After the cold front pushes through,
there is now good model consensus that much cooler and drier air
will dominate for the remainder of the period.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873


60% chance of rain here, but there is nothing on the Radar. Wonder where it is? 60.3 right now, low was 57.1 and forecast for 61. Plenty of clouds, Sun was just out for a few.

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251. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:16 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
250. Thrawst
5:15 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1900
249. pcola57
5:14 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Current Jet Stream Analysis From WU..(A Weather Channel Co..)



Current Jet Stream Analysis From WSI..(Intellicast..also a Weather Channel Co..)


General Electric owns them both..
As well as NBC..CNBC..and many other Media outlets..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
248. beell
5:14 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THIS BEING SAID...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BEGUN TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE PRESENT. IF A LARGE COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THE SQUALL LINE...WE WILL SEE A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. AS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE AT 750MB
...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY VALUES REALIZED. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY LATELY OF NOT REALIZING ACTUAL INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE
PAST FEW EVENTS. PUTTING ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER...A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME...WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...YOU JUST CANNOT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS
FORMING IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RIGHT-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS


That (bolded text) seems to be a pretty consistent trend over the last few days.
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247. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:10 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Dangerous ice to near .5" in IA
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
246. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:08 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Major storm...930 mb..
AKA Jolle

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
245. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:07 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting all4hurricanes:
does anyone have some good pictures of the 930mb low? what is it's pressure now?


942...
as of now...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
244. all4hurricanes
5:05 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
does anyone have some good pictures of the 930mb low? what is it's pressure now?
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243. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:58 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
northeast gets snow in a week.....................


Interesting...Thanks LargoFL
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
242. Thrawst
4:54 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Does anyone have the site where you can compare current atmospheric setups to setups in the past? I've seen Levi put it on his tidbits a few times but I can never find that particular site. It compares to the setups in the past and gives you a list of dates which had simlar setups.

Thanks!
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1900
241. wxmod
4:33 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
The last 24 readings of air quality in Beijing China. Make sure your retirement isn't invested in China!
BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-28-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 340.0; 390; Hazardous
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 318.0; 368; Hazardous
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 306.0; 356; Hazardous
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 329.0; 379; Hazardous
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 317.0; 367; Hazardous
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 314.0; 364; Hazardous
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 300.0; 350; Hazardous
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 288.0; 338; Hazardous
8h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 320.0; 370; Hazardous
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 15:00; PM2.5; 313.0; 363; Hazardous
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 14:00; PM2.5; 322.0; 372; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 13:00; PM2.5; 321.0; 371; Hazardous
12h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 12:00; PM2.5; 306.0; 356; Hazardous
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 340.0; 390; Hazardous
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 10:00; PM2.5; 387.0; 425; Hazardous
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 261.0; 311; Hazardous
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 310.0; 360; Hazardous
17h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 312.0; 362; Hazardous
18h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 284.0; 334; Hazardous
19h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 258.0; 308; Hazardous
20h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 293.0; 343; Hazardous
21h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 318.0; 368; Hazardous
22h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 347.0; 397; Hazardous
23h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 307.0; 357; Hazardous
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240. hydrus
4:29 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
239. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:21 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
This happened today to me...it was 5F outside...



Green lights on a 40 mph road... there is a railroad crossing and all of a sudden I see the gates coming down with the flashing red light WHEN THE GREEN TRAFFIC LIGHT WAS STILL THERE !!!

I had to make such a violent stop...feel bad for my car.. :(
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
238. Barefootontherocks
4:20 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks, i guess by monday the warnings will go up there also
Quoting VR46L:


Aye Probably
Your terminology is incorrect. Just so there is not confusion by anyone reading the comments... Severe warnings are issued by local NWS offices as an event occurs - severe t-storm, tornado, suspected tornado. SPC identifies severe risk potential and adjusts that potential up to and during an event, and they issue severe weather watches - severe tstorm and tornado watches - as the weather becomes imminent.

A convective outlook may identify a "slight" or greater risk area in FL panhandle by Monday or later, but severe warnings will not be in the picture until and unless this severe system develops and moves that direction.

The SPC's severe risk areas have been inching west and now have spread NE. Those in the southern plains into the upper midwest and parts of the southeast would be wise to keep an eye on pending Tuesday weather. And those downstream (east) of whatever develops, keep an eye on what will head your way.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18771
237. etxwx
4:07 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Good morning all. Sunny and warm this morning, with a forecast high of 77F. I'm trying mightily to resist the "too early" garden urges brought on by this weather. With gardens on my mind, this locally produced food article caught my eye. It would certainly be beneficial if more regions developed local food networks.
Hope everyone has a nice relaxing Sunday.

Doubling Local Food in Vermont
by Rachel Carter - Cornell Small Farms Program

Excerpt: The Vermont Farm to Plate (F2P) Network is relocalizing food production and distribution in a statewide collaborative effort to rebalance the food system. A network of over 160 organizations encompassing all types and scales of agricultural-related production and processing are working together to execute the Farm to Plate Strategic Plan.

In 2009, the ‘Farm to Plate Investment Program’ was signed into legislation by then Governor Jim Douglas. The legislation tasked the Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund with the creation of a ten year ‘Farm to Plate Strategic Plan’ to increase economic development in Vermont’s food and farm sector; create jobs in the food and farm economy; and improve access to healthy local food for all Vermonters. An economic impact analysis showed that every 5% increase in the consumption of locally produced food translates to at least $197 million in additional annual output and 1,700 new jobs. By supporting instead of duplicating existing efforts through a cross-pollinating network approach, the Farm to Plate Network is working to strengthen Vermont’s working landscape, build the resilience of farms, improve environmental quality, and increase local food access for all Vermonters.


More info here.
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236. pcola57
4:00 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Invest 13 Southern Hemisphere..



97P invest Southern Hemisphere..



Garry..

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235. BaltOCane
3:58 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Those of us in Baltimore would really rather not have a big snow on Feb 3.
We'll have too much celebrating to do.
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234. Barefootontherocks
3:56 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NAM hinting at a surface low!
I hope it pans out


Perhaps the NAM also hinting at 100knot 500mb wind and a negative tilt. Tornado ingredients.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18771
233. taco2me61
3:51 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
ok Everyone have a Great Day and I'll check back in later own to see if any changes happen....

Taco :o)
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232. taco2me61
3:41 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:


At least the Threat will be gone by our next Mardi Gras Parade for Thursday night... Although it will be a lot cooler but warming back up by Saturday....


Taco :o)
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231. LargoFl
3:40 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
well this is it for me..see you all later........
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230. LargoFl
3:38 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
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229. LargoFl
3:36 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
228. VR46L
3:34 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks, i guess by monday the warnings will go up there also


Aye Probably

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
227. LargoFl
3:34 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
yes the NAM has it also,this week be careful folks.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
226. LargoFl
3:32 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
look how close the lines are........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
225. LargoFl
3:30 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Largo there is a little of the western Panhandle of Florida under threat of Thunder storms for 29th-30th

thanks, i guess by monday the warnings will go up there also
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
224. GeorgiaStormz
3:30 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
THIS BEING SAID...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BEGUN TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE PRESENT. IF A LARGE COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THE SQUALL LINE...WE WILL SEE A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. AS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE AT 750MB...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY VALUES REALIZED. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY LATELY OF NOT REALIZING ACTUAL INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE
PAST FEW EVENTS. PUTTING ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER...A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME...WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...YOU JUST CANNOT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS
FORMING IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RIGHT-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
223. VR46L
3:28 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
so far it looks like this severe weather is going to miss florida..I dont see any advance warnings for us yet


Largo there is a little of the western Panhandle of Florida under threat of Thunder storms for 29th-30th

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
222. taco2me61
3:28 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NAM shows WELL over 1100 j/kg CAPE so I expect as the event nears other models may follow.


I agree with you on this. I was just checking out the NAM and looks to be right.... I just hope everyone keep a close eye out for what is coming Tue and Wed....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.