Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb
In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.
Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.
Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:
920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).
921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)
924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)
925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)
925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)
For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.
Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.
The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records
Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic
Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.
Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.
Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook
21:00 PM FST January 27 2013
=================================
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (1001 hPa) located at 11.0S 169.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-satellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Organization remains poor. Deep convection has increased in the northern and eastern quadrant in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate shear environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.
Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastwards with slight intensification.
The potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW.
System #2
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At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1001 hPa) located at 22.0S 179.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.
Organization is poor. Convection has increased in the southern and eastern quadrant in the last 18 hours. System lies in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.
Global models have picked up this system and moves it southward with slight intensification.
I hope it pans out
Wind Beats Out Natural Gas To Become Top Source Of New Electricity Capacity For 2012
By Jeff Spross on Jan 22, 2013 at 4:30 pm
Through June of 2012, renewable energy was right behind natural gas in terms of the most new energy generating capacity being installed in the United States, with wind making up most of the renewables push. And now Business Insider has flagged the numbers for the remainder of the year.
Last week, they reported that wind ultimately pulled ahead of natural gas to become the leading installer of new capacity in 2012, at 10,689 total megawatts.
Those numbers came from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s report on the trends and highlights in U.S. energy for the past year. According to FERC’s update, natural gas installed 8,746 megawatts of new capacity, coal installed 4,510 new megawatts, and solar came in fourth with 1,476 new megawatts.
Looks to be interesting come Wed for Alabama. Although I beleive that the Tornado Threat will be close to the AL/GA state line going towards Atlanta.... I do know it looks to be Storming here all along the North Gulf Coast....
Taco :o)
A surface low would do wonders in increasing the severity of this system
ECMWF shows 500-700 j/kg but a very weak surface low.
The GFS does not have any kind of meaningful surface low.
I agree with you on this. I was just checking out the NAM and looks to be right.... I just hope everyone keep a close eye out for what is coming Tue and Wed....
Taco :o)
Largo there is a little of the western Panhandle of Florida under threat of Thunder storms for 29th-30th
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE PRESENT. IF A LARGE COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THE SQUALL LINE...WE WILL SEE A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. AS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE AT 750MB...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY VALUES REALIZED. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY LATELY OF NOT REALIZING ACTUAL INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE
PAST FEW EVENTS. PUTTING ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER...A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME...WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...YOU JUST CANNOT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS
FORMING IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RIGHT-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS
Aye Probably
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013
At least the Threat will be gone by our next Mardi Gras Parade for Thursday night... Although it will be a lot cooler but warming back up by Saturday....
Taco :o)
Taco :o)
We'll have too much celebrating to do.
97P invest Southern Hemisphere..
Garry..
Hope everyone has a nice relaxing Sunday.
Doubling Local Food in Vermont
by Rachel Carter - Cornell Small Farms Program
Excerpt: The Vermont Farm to Plate (F2P) Network is relocalizing food production and distribution in a statewide collaborative effort to rebalance the food system. A network of over 160 organizations encompassing all types and scales of agricultural-related production and processing are working together to execute the Farm to Plate Strategic Plan.
In 2009, the ‘Farm to Plate Investment Program’ was signed into legislation by then Governor Jim Douglas. The legislation tasked the Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund with the creation of a ten year ‘Farm to Plate Strategic Plan’ to increase economic development in Vermont’s food and farm sector; create jobs in the food and farm economy; and improve access to healthy local food for all Vermonters. An economic impact analysis showed that every 5% increase in the consumption of locally produced food translates to at least $197 million in additional annual output and 1,700 new jobs. By supporting instead of duplicating existing efforts through a cross-pollinating network approach, the Farm to Plate Network is working to strengthen Vermont’s working landscape, build the resilience of farms, improve environmental quality, and increase local food access for all Vermonters.
More info here.
A convective outlook may identify a "slight" or greater risk area in FL panhandle by Monday or later, but severe warnings will not be in the picture until and unless this severe system develops and moves that direction.
The SPC's severe risk areas have been inching west and now have spread NE. Those in the southern plains into the upper midwest and parts of the southeast would be wise to keep an eye on pending Tuesday weather. And those downstream (east) of whatever develops, keep an eye on what will head your way.
Green lights on a 40 mph road... there is a railroad crossing and all of a sudden I see the gates coming down with the flashing red light WHEN THE GREEN TRAFFIC LIGHT WAS STILL THERE !!!
I had to make such a violent stop...feel bad for my car.. :(
BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-28-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 340.0; 390; Hazardous
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 318.0; 368; Hazardous
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 306.0; 356; Hazardous
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 329.0; 379; Hazardous
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 317.0; 367; Hazardous
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 314.0; 364; Hazardous
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 300.0; 350; Hazardous
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 288.0; 338; Hazardous
8h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 320.0; 370; Hazardous
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 15:00; PM2.5; 313.0; 363; Hazardous
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 14:00; PM2.5; 322.0; 372; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 13:00; PM2.5; 321.0; 371; Hazardous
12h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 12:00; PM2.5; 306.0; 356; Hazardous
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 340.0; 390; Hazardous
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 10:00; PM2.5; 387.0; 425; Hazardous
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 261.0; 311; Hazardous
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 310.0; 360; Hazardous
17h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 312.0; 362; Hazardous
18h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 284.0; 334; Hazardous
19h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 258.0; 308; Hazardous
20h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 293.0; 343; Hazardous
21h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 318.0; 368; Hazardous
22h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 347.0; 397; Hazardous
23h BeijingAir BeijingAir @BeijingAir
01-27-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 307.0; 357; Hazardous
Thanks!
Interesting...Thanks LargoFL
942...
as of now...
AKA Jolle
That (bolded text) seems to be a pretty consistent trend over the last few days.
Current Jet Stream Analysis From WSI..(Intellicast..also a Weather Channel Co..)
General Electric owns them both..
As well as NBC..CNBC..and many other Media outlets..
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