Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb
In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.
Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.
Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:
920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).
921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)
924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)
925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)
925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)
For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.
Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.
The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records
Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic
Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.
Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.
Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yes... forgot that one.
No problem...love doing it
Keep doing them! :)
sure
MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF ICE...LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET.
* TIMING...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
* IMPACTS...ICING WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET TO ALSO
ACCUMULATE...ADDING TO THE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
JE/BAJ
The photo I posted at comment 98 started it all.
TWO landslides triggered by heavy rains killed at least 11 people and left 19 others missing on Indonesia's Sumatra island, officials said on Sunday.
The National Disaster Management Agency said seven people were killed and three people were injured in a landslide in Agam district in West Sumatra province early on Sunday.
"At this point, seven people were found dead and three others were injured... and 18 were missing," agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said in a text message.
Fifteen houses were also buried by the landslide, he added.
Separately, a landslide caused by heavy rains late on Saturday killed four workers at a drilling site belonging to PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy in Kerinci district in Jambi province, the company said in a press release.
"The landslide killed four people, injured five people, and left one person missing. All victims were workers who were drilling," it said.
Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is prone to frequent bursts of heavy rain.
Heavy rain in the capital Jakarta this month caused 32 deaths and at its peak forced nearly 46,000 people to flee their inundated homes, Nugroho told AFP earlier.
THE battered city of Bundaberg is bracing for one of its worst floods in history as it bears the brunt of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald.
One man is confirmed dead and hundreds of homes and businesses are expected to be inundated on Sunday night as the Burnett River rises towards a peak not seen in the central Queensland town in over a century.
Premier Campbell Newman says at least 300 homes and 100 businesses in Bundaberg will be inundated if the flood peak on Sunday night eclipses the 2010/11 level, as it's expected to do.
Bundaberg Regional Council Mayor Mal Forman says about 40 homes have been flooded and the army has been called in to help evacuate people.
He says Burnett River will peak at 8.5 metres on Sunday night, well above the 7.92m peak of 2010/11.
It will reach a second peak of 9m on Tuesday, when water from the catchments flows downstream.
The only other time on record a flood peak reached 9m was in 1893-94, meaning the town was heading into unknown territory, Mr Forman said.
"It's going to challenge us. It will be our greatest challenge," he told AAP.
"We do ask people to have patience and let us do our job and hopefully we can all get through it with the least amount of damage and hurt."
About 460 people are already in two evacuation centres with many more fleeing to relatives' homes on higher ground, while about 150 businesses have also been evacuated.
Two defence force Blackhawk helicopters are flying in from Townsville to help.
Residents are being told to prepare to spend several nights away from their homes.
Meanwhile, the body of an elderly man was found in the tornado-hit coastal town of Burnett Heads, northeast of Bundaberg, on Sunday morning.
Police said he had fallen overboard from a yacht which had broken from its mooring.
On Saturday afternoon and evening five tornadoes ripped through the coastal region near Bundaberg, injuring more than a dozen people and damaging 250 homes.
Two people were critically injured when a giant pine tree fell on their parked car on the Esplanade at Bargara, and about a dozen more were injured by flying glass and other debris.
Two homes were completely destroyed in the mini-cyclone that struck Burnett Heads.
Community Safety Minister Jack Dempsey, whose electorate takes in the tornado-struck region, said shell-shocked locals told him the tornado sounded like a jet landing and afterwards it looked like a bulldozer had ploughed through the area.
"When the force hit the Esplanade in Bargara it wasn't just smashing things, it actually sucked the air out of the buildings and blew out the windows," he told AAP.
Premier Campbell Newman visited Bundaberg on Sunday morning as part of a tour of disaster-hit regions and later told a press conference of meeting a couple whose home, caravan and car had been significantly damaged.
"My heart goes out to them," he said.
Residents have been warned sewage will be present in floodwaters because the council's sewerage pump stations aren't operating.
news.com.au
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF
For people in the
Southeast Coast and parts of the
Wide Bay and Burnett and
Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.
Issued at 7:45 pm Sunday, 27 January 2013.
Synoptic Situation:
At 7pm EST, the centre of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was located approximately 20km south of Chinchilla and 70km west northwest of Dalby. The system was moving southeast at about 20 km/h and is expected to contract into New South Wales on Monday.
Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125km/h, with possible tornado activity, are occurring about the Southeast Coast district near and south of Cape Moreton, extending west into the eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Cape Moreton recorded a wind gust of 125km/h at 2:46pm and again at 6:40pm. Spitfire Channel and Redcliffe recorded a wind gust of 90km/h at 7pm. This activity could cause significant damage or destruction to homes and property in localised areas.
Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding has also contracted south and is now focused over the Southeast Coast district south of Brisbane to the New South Wales border, extending west to include the Great Dividing Range and the Granite Belt. Six hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 100mm are likely. This could lead to rapid river and stream rises. Widespread 24 hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 250mm are likely.
Currently, the heaviest rain is located on radar over the Gold Coast and adjacent hinterland. Mudgeeraba has recorded 140mm in the 3 hours to 7:30pm, while Benobble (near Mt Tamborine) has recorded 111mm and Canungra 105mm. Mount Nebo has recorded 274mm, Upper Springbrook 267mm, Mt Castle 222mm and Dayboro 193mm since 9am.
The area of heavy rain and destructive wind gusts will continue to contract south during the remainder of today and Monday.
Water levels on the morning high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal and island locations from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border on Monday. The sea level is likely to rise above the normal tide and the exposed beaches will experience damaging waves and flooding of some low lying areas close to the shoreline.
Dangerous surf conditions, with significant beach erosion, are expected along the coast from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border for the remainder of today and Monday. This includes Hervey Bay and northern parts of Moreton Bay.
for destructive winds, damaging winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and damaging surf
for people in the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Illawarra and Central Tablelands forecast districts
Issued at 4:14 pm EDT on Sunday 27 January 2013.
VERY HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS AND SURF OVER NORTHEASTERN NSW.
Weather Situation
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald currently located over southern Queensland expected to move rapidly south through eastern New South Wales on Monday to be near Sydney around midnight on Monday.
Abnormally high tides which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas and very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion are forecast for the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast expected to extend to Hunter, Metropolitan and Illawarra forecast districts during Monday. Beach conditions in these areas will be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.
Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the Northern Rivers forecast district. Destructive winds are expected to ease gradually during Monday morning.
Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands expected to extend to Metropolitan and Hunter forecast districts during Monday.
Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is falling in Northern Rivers, Northern Tablelands, Mid North Coast districts and is forecast to extend to the Hunter overnight and to the Metropolitan, Central Tablelands and Illawarra forecast districts by Monday afternoon.
Heavy rain is expected to ease in the Northern River district during Monday morning and in Mid-North cost in the afternoon.
Since 9am Sunday 99 mm has been recorded at Hopkins Ck (near Mullumbimby), 70 mm in Coffs Harbour and Comboyne.
ENERGEX: 128,000 homes without power in South East. Many areas won't have it restored until tomorrow due to dangerous conditions.
48hrs
240hrs
Brisbane River, Brisbane.
54F on da Bayou Grande this am.
Safe flight mate, Enjoy your break. Stay warm. Don't eat yellow snow, lol.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013
A chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 62. South southeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South southwest wind 11 to 16 mph becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday A slight chance of showers after 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night A chance of showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday A chance of showers before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
459 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
...FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...
ILZ012>014-020-022-023-033-INZ001-002-010-011-019 -271915-
/O.COR.KLOT.ZR.Y.0001.130127T1700Z-130127T2200Z/
KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-L AKE IN-PORTER-
NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...
JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...GARY...VALPARAISO.. .MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
459 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013 /559 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013/
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /NOON
EST/ THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST /5 PM EST/ THIS AFTERNOON...
* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
SLEET AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE TO MID AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH JUST
RAIN OCCURRING FROM EARLY EVENING ON INTO THE NIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER
IN THE DAY. BY LATER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH JUST RAIN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ON INTO THE NIGHT.
* OTHER IMPACTS...PAVEMENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON
CONTACT AND RESULT IN ICY AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS. SIDEWAYS AND WALKWAYS COULD ALSO TURN TO
SHEETS OF ICE MAKING WALKING DIFFICULT AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ON ICY ROADS.
&&
$$
Queensland is almost finished with Ex-Oswald. My state is next, all Weatherzone says is my area is expecting 80mm+ (3.15in). Places up in Queensland have had over 600mm(23.6in) in about 50hrs. Thankfully Ex-Oswald has increased his speed and wont be able to dump much more than 100-200mm in the next 3 days.
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND
GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE.
Current GFS Sea Level Pressure Model Image..
Current ECMWF Sea Pressure Model Image..
NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day
Comet McNaught Over Chile
Image Credit & Copyright: St%uFFFDphane Guisard
Explanation: Comet McNaught of 2007 has been, so far, the most photogenic comet of our time. After making quite a show in the northern hemisphere in early 2007 January, the comet moved south and developed a long and unusual dust tail that dazzled southern hemisphere observers. In this image, Comet McNaught was captured above Santiago, Chile. The bright comet dominates on the left while part of its magnificent tail spreads across the entire frame. From this vantage point in the Andes Mountains, one looks up toward Comet McNaught and a magnificent sky, across at a crescent moon, and down on clouds, atmospheric haze, and the city lights. The current year -- 2013 -- holds promise to be even better for comets than 2007. In early March, Comet PANSTARRS is on track to become visible to the unaided eye, while at the end of the year Comet ISON shows possibilities that include casting a tail that spreads across the sky, breaking up, and even becoming one of the brightest comets in recorded history.
GFS ACCUM SNOW 96Hrs Out..
NE WRF SFC ACCUM SNOWFALL 48Hrs Out..
I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week
I wish you best of luck VR46L..
It looks like this one means business..
Is sooo large that I would venture to guess that it would cover most of the US conus..
Stay safe my friend.. :)
Yeah its huge , Thank you very much !! But at least is 10ºF warmer than it was last week .lol
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 27 2013
=====================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.7S 62.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60-70 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3S 60.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.7S 57.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.0S 54.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.2S 51.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
==========================
Since 0600z this morning, deep convection has moved more away from the low level circulation center due to persistent moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The vortex is well visible on satellite imagery. Latest ASCAT and OSCAT pictures do not allow to calibrate the winds, but it is likely that near gale force winds still exist in the eastern semi-circle.
System has accelerated by keeping a westward to west southwestward track on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures.
Available nwp models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. System is expected to keep a quite fast west southwestward track throughout the next 48-60 hours (ARPEGE-ALADIN and UKMO suggest a few more south-westward track). Over this forecast track, the upper level southeastern then east southeastern vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen progressively within the next hours, and to keep on being unfavorable until Monday late or Tuesday morning for a significant deepening (intensity should oscillate between 25 and 30 knots.)
Tuesday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Therefore, system is expected to regularly strengthen and to undergo the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east northeast.
Therefore from Wednesday, system is expected to slow down and re-curve south southwestward to move along the eastern Malagasy coastline up to the end of forecast period. Intensification should continue with environmental conditions remaining favorable.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #32
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER GARRY (09F)
21:00 PM FST January 27 2013
======================================
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Garry (997 hPa) located near 23.5S 158.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Overall organization has not changed much past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to southeast of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper shortwave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good in southeast quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on 70 NM sheared distance from strong temperature gradient, giving DT=1.5. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on Dvorak constraints.
Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastwards, weakening it further.
This is the final tropical cyclone disturbance on TC GARRY.
Viewing: 151 - 201
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